• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.497-502
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the determinants of default risk of rural banks in East Java, Indonesia. The method used is descriptive verification and logistic regression analysis. The data used is secondary in the form of monthly annual financial reports of rural banks in East Java during the period 2009-2018. From the results, it was shown that net interest margin (NIM) as a proxy of market risk, non-performing loan (NPL) as a proxy of credit risk, operation efficiency as a proxy of operational risk and return on assets (ROA) as a proxy of profitability have a significant influence on default risk. Meanwhile, the loan to deposit (LDR) ratio as a proxy of liquidity risk has no significant influence on default risk. Banks need to implement risk management and meet the capital adequacy requirements of regulators so that they are resistant to risk, and also, compliant with bank governance to be able to produce high returns for rural banks have an impact on sustainability and its existence. The ability to identify setbacks in bank conditions and the ability to distinguish between healthy and problematic banks will enable to anticipate default banks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.319-329
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• 2021

The study examines the impact of bank-level factors like non-performing assets, capital adequacy, and insolvency risk on bank performance. This study employs a quantitative method with panel data regression. The data was taken from the annual financial statements of state-owned commercial banks and private commercial banks in Indonesia from 2015 to 2019 using a purposive sampling method with a total sample of 470 observations. The result of the study shows that non-performing assets (NPA) have a significant negative impact on bank performance. Capital adequacy has a significant negative impact on bank performance. Insolvency risk for a bank means it cannot repay its depositors because its liabilities are greater than its assets; therefore, it has a significant impact on bank performance. This study is expected to help banks to understand how to manage the risks they face and to maintain their performance. This study uses 'size' and 'age of bank' as control variables and for credit risk and insolvency risk, Z-Score is used.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.79-86
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• 2022

Voice phishing is a cyber crime in which fake financial institutions, the Public Prosecutor's Office, and the National Police Agency are impersonated to find out an individual's Certification number and credit card number or withdraw a deposit. Recently, voice phishing has been carried out in a subtle and secret way. Analyzing the trend of voice phishing that occurred in '18~'21, it was found that there is a seasonality that occurs rapidly at a time when the movement of money is intensifying in the trend of voice phishing, giving ambiguity to time series analysis. In this research, we adjusted seasonality using the X-12 seasonality adjustment methodology for accurate prediction of voice phishing occurrence trends, and predicted the occurrence of voice phishing in 2022 using the ARIMA model.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.687-714
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• 2009

In this paper, we study empirically the relations between financial constraints and dividend adjustment speed of innovative small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) listed on Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. Determinants suggested by the major theories of dividends, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend payout policy of Kosdaq SMEs. Lintner's dividend adjustment model indicates that Kosdaq SMEs have long run target payout ratio, and that Kosdaq SMEs adjust partially the gap between actual and target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner (1956) dividend adjustment model, past DPS has more effect than current EPS. These results suggest that Kosdaq SMEs maintain stable dividend policy which maintain past DPS level without corporate special reasons. Dividend adjustment speed of innovative Kosdaq SMEs is more fast than that of uninnovative Kosdaq SMEs, and dividend adjustment speed of financial unconstrained innovative Kosdaq SMEs is faster than that of financial constrained innovative Kosdaq SMEs. Futhermore, dividend adjustment speed of innovative Kosdaq SMEs classified by Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of unclassified innovative Kosdaq SMEs. The former is linked with financial policies and services like credit guaranteed service, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, past DPS and current EPS suggested by the Lintner's dividend adjustment model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed, and financial constraints explain also partially. Therefore, if managers of innovative Kosdaq SMEs can properly understand of the effects of financial constraints on dividend smoothing, they can maintain constantly dividend policy. This is encouraging result for Korea government as it has implemented many policies to commit to innovative Kosdaq SMEs.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.79-99
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• 2015

The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.1-32
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• 2009

This study examines the changes of income, everyday life and living condition of consumer in the aftermath of financial crisis. In this period financial crisis was the crucial factor behind various social problems such as the dissolution of families and individuals. This research explores the range and degree of impact on individuals and social groups after the financial crisis. We explore the social mobility in terns of maintaining middle class and falling into the lower class measured by middle class identification. The 60% of the middle class before the financial crisis maintained the middle class position and the rest of people left out of middle class and fell into lower class. The 60% of those who has been maintained and has just became the members of middle class were college - educated people. The great part of people whose income and assets has increased after financial crisis belongs to college - educated group. Many of those whose income have decreased belong to the high school educated group and blow, the older than 50 years old, self - employed without employee and unpaid family employee. Those whose income and assets decreased and those who experienced downward mobility have undergone changes in everyday life and living conditions as a consumer. Many of them experienced the unemployment, nonpayment or credit - delinquency, dissolution of family, worsening health condition, depression, feeling the impulse to commit suicide simultaneously. The poor consumer disposition, reduction of living expenses, sound consumer culture have expanded to people since economic crisis. The middle class reported that the cost of private education often goes beyond the family ability to pay. The lower class has suffered from the cost of living. In a meanwhile luxury goods preference, consumer consciousness for status symbol have continuously increased among all the classes since 1997. Thus fluctuations of one's income and social mobility during past 10 years were some of the major determinants which brought about the various damaging life events, changes of living conditions and everyday lives as a consumer.

• 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2018.11a
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• pp.165-175
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• 2018

Since the 1997 financial crisis, large scale unemployment and poverty have become serious, and public and social job creation projects have been carried out. However, with the limitations of low-wage and short-term jobs, the need for long-term and high quality jobs gradually began to attract attention. In recent years, social enterprises have grown both quantitatively and qualitatively and interest in social enterprises has increased. And also it is interested in the determinants of success and failure of social enterprises in the academic field. In this study, we examined the effects of social enterprise characteristics on financial and social performance, and we analyzed empirically by using social enterprises registered in the Korea Social Enterprise Agency. The financial performance of the social enterprise is measured by the net income ratio, operating income ratio, and the return on asset. The social performance of the social enterprise is measured by total number of workers and the employment rate of the vulnerable social groups. The characteristics of the social enterprise include the CEO characteristics (gender, age, experience in operating the social enterprise), the firm size, and the elapsed time of the authentication. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of analysis for the effect on financial performance, we found that the financial performance have a statistically significant positive relationship with firm size, organizational form, government subsidies and capital adequacy ratio. And it is found that the social performance have a statistically significant negative relationship with CEO age, credit debt dependence. Second, as a result of analysis for the effect on social performance, we foumd that total number of workers have a significant positive relationships with CEO gender, CEO age, and firm size, government subsidies, while total number of workers have a significant negative relationship with certification type and industry dummy. On the other hand, the employment rate of the vulnerable social groups have a siginificant positive relationship with CEO gender and certification type and It have not statistically significant relationship with the government subsidies and the firm size.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.61-72
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• 2019

Since the financial crisis in 1997, large scale unemployment and poverty have become serious, but there has been a surge in public and social job creation projects. However, with the limitations of low-wage and short-term jobs, the need for long-term, high quality jobs gradually began to garner attention. In recent years, social enterprises have grown both quantitatively and qualitatively and interest in social enterprises has increased; more specifically, scholars are interested in the determinants of success and failure of social enterprises in the academic field. In this study, we examined the effects of social enterprise characteristics on financial and social performance. In particular, we empirically analyzed social enterprises registered in the Korea Social Enterprise Agency. The financial performance of the social enterprise was measured using the net income ratio, operating income ratio, and the return on asset. The social performance of the social enterprise was measured by the total number of workers and the employment rate of vulnerable social groups. The characteristics of the social enterprise included CEO characteristics (gender, age, experience in operating the social enterprise), firm size, and the elapsed time of authentication. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of analysis for the effect on financial performance, we found that the financial performance has a statistically significant, positive relationship with firm size, organizational form, government subsidies, and capital adequacy ratio. And we found that the social performance has a statistically significant, negative relationship with CEO age and credit debt dependence. Second, as a result of analysis for the effect on social performance, we found that the total number of workers had a significant, positive relationship with CEO gender and CEO age, as well as firm size, government subsidies; whereas the total number of workers had a significant, negative relationship with certification type and industry dummy. Comparatively, the employment rate of the vulnerable social groups had a significant, positive relationship with CEO gender and certification type, but there was no statistically significant relationship with the government subsidies or firm size.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.70-119
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• 2021

This paper analyzes the changes in financial reform during the Kim Jong-un era based on North Korean literature. We find that North Korea has systematically and functionally separated the central bank from commercial banks since the Kim Jong-un era began. In addition, enterprises have been allowed to withdraw cash from bank accounts and make inter-enterprise cash payments. In other words, nowadays non-cash currencies with passive money can partially serve as active money with purchasing power. With the systematic and functional separation of the central bank and the commercial bank, the issuance of the central bank changed to a money supply method through the commercial bank, and changes in the currency distribution structure have allowed commercial bank's credit creation function to be implemented. This means that the banking system and the monetary·payment system of the socialist planned economy are changing in the way of the market economy. Reforms in the financial sector are believed to have been necessary to support changes in the economic system and to restore the function of the public financial sector. These changes have progressed in terms of the level of reform, but they are still considered similar to the period of the former Soviet Union's Perestroika or to the early period of China's reform and opening. Although North Korea's financial reform is superior in terms of enacting the banking law, it is insufficient in terms of realizing the functions of commercial banks. In addition, it is assessed that institutional constraints such as maintaining a planned economy, and the lack of confidence in public finances limit the effectiveness and development of the financial system. It should be noted that these results are based on literature published in North Korea. In other words, there is a limit in the fact that such recent changes have been carried out on a trial basis in some areas, or have been carried out in a full-scale manner with a blueprint, since Kim Jong-un's inauguration.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.13-21
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• 2016

Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.