• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.45-67
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• 2014

국가혁신역량은 경제성장의 중요한 결정요인으로 이에 대한 측정과 관리는 매우 중요하다. 국가혁신역량을 측정하는 다양한 접근방법 중 복합지표 접근법이 널리 활용되고 있지만, 그 타당성과 신뢰성에 대한 검토는 부족한 실정이다. 따라서 국가혁신역량을 측정하는 가장 대표적인 유럽연합 IUS(Innovation Union Scoreboard)의 최근 3개년 보고서('11년~'13년)를 중심으로 신뢰성과 타당성을 분석하였다. 분석결과 IUS 복합지표 측정모형의 크롬바흐(Chronbach's) ${\alpha}$ 검정 결과 신뢰도는 권고기준을 충족하였다. 하지만 구성타당도와 예측타당도를 분석한 결과, 구성타당도에서는 절대적합지수와 증분적합지수 모두 권고기준을 충족하지 못하였다. 또한 IUS 복합지표의 각 부문과 항목에 대한 패널선형회귀분석 결과, 예측타당도가 매우 낮게 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과를 토대로 복합지표 접근법으로 국가혁신역량을 측정할 때 고려사항과 주요 시사점을 제시하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.349-359
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• 2017

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.80-85
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• 2012

The methods of robust design optimization (RDO) and reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) were implemented in the present study. RBRDO is an integrated method that accounts for the design robustness of an objective function and for the reliability of constraints. The objective function in RBRDO is expressed in terms of the mean and standard deviation of an original objective function. Thus, a multi-objective formulation is employed. The regressive approximate models are generated via the moving least squares method (MLSM) and constraint-feasible moving least squares method (CF-MLSM), which make it possible to realize the feasibility regardless of the multimodality/nonlinearity of the constraint function during the approximate optimization processes. The regression model based RBRDO is newly devised and its numerical characteristics are explored using the design of an actively controlled ten bar truss structure.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.171-171
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• 2020

Decision making strategies should consider both adaptiveness and robustness in order to deal with two main characteristics of climate change: non-stationarity and deep uncertainty. Especially, robust strategies are different from traditional optimal strategies in the sense that they are satisfactory over a wider range of uncertainty and may act as a key when confronting climate change. In this study, a new framework named Robust Stochastic Dynamic Programming (R-SDP) is proposed, which couples previously developed robust optimization (RO) into the objective function and constraint of SDP. Two main approaches of RO, feasibility robustness and solution robustness, are considered in the optimization algorithm and consequently, three models to be tested are developed: conventional-SDP (CSDP), R-SDP-Feasibility (RSDP-F), and R-SDP-Solution (RSDP-S). The developed models were used to derive optimal monthly release rules in a single reservoir, and multiple simulations of the derived monthly policy under inflow scenarios with varying mean and standard deviations are undergone. Simulation results were then evaluated with a wide range of evaluation metrics from reliability, resiliency, vulnerability to additional robustness measures. Evaluation results were finally visualized with advanced visualization tools that are used in multi-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework. As a result, RSDP-F and RSDP-S models yielded more risk averse, or conservative, results than the CSDP model, and a trade-off relationship between traditional and robustness metrics was discovered.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제43권6호
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• pp.479-485
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• 2010

Objectives: The Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES), a multicenter-based multi-cohort study, has collected information on body composition using two different bioelectrical impedence analysis (BIA) machines. The aim of the study was to evaluate the possibility of whether the test values measured from different BIA machines can be integrated through statistical adjustment algorithm under excellent inter-rater reliability. Methods: We selected two centers to measure inter-rater reliability of the two BIA machines. We set up the two machines side by side and measured subjects' body compositions between October and December 2007. Duplicated test values of 848 subjects were collected. Pearson and intra-class correlation coefficients for inter-rater reliability were estimated using results from the two machines. To detect the feasibility for data integration, we constructed statistical compensation models using linear regression models with residual analysis and R-square values. Results: All correlation coefficients indicated excellent reliability except mineral mass. However, models using only duplicated body composition values for data integration were not feasible due to relatively low $R^2$ values of 0.8 for mineral mass and target weight. To integrate body composition data, models adjusted for four empirical variables that were age, sex, weight and height were most ideal (all $R^2$ > 0.9). Conclusions: The test values measured with the two BIA machines in the KoGES have excellent reliability for the nine body composition values. Based on reliability, values can be integrated through algorithmic statistical adjustment using regression equations that includes age, sex, weight, and height.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2023

원전 계측제어계통은 정상운전 시 자가 진단기능의 유지보수를 위해 일정 주기로 건전성을 확인하고 있으며, 계획예방정비 기간 동안 기능 및 성능점검을 실시하여 필요한 경우 유지보수를 하고 있다. 하지만 원전의 정보를 계측하고 제어하는 계측제어계통에서도 선제적으로 고장을 진단하고 대처하여 사고전파를 방지할 수 있는 기술개발이 필요하다. 이에 본 논문에서는 계측제어 장비의 환경조건과 자가 진단 데이터를 활용한 신뢰도 함수 추정 방안을 연구하였으며, 고장데이터의 획득을 위해 계측제어 장비의 부품에 대한 Feature 별 확률분포를 가정하여 가상 고장데이터를 생산하였다. 이러한 고장데이터를 바탕으로 생존분석에서 활용되는 대표적인 인공지능 모델(DeepSurve, DeepHit)을 이용하여 신뢰도 함수를 추정하였고, 그와 동시에 전통적인 준모수적 방법론인 Cox 회귀모델을 통해 신뢰도 함수를 추정하여 환경조건과 진단 데이터를 바탕으로 한 잔여 수명 계산을 통해 적용 가능성을 확인하였다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.123-132
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• 2020

Currently, there are two types of trainer in Korea : basic and advanced. Both models have been in operation for more than 10 years, and compared to the early stage of operation, reliability has gradually improved and failure rates have also entered a trend of stabilization. Therefore, it is necessary to extend the maintenance period considering economic feasibility. This study investigates the three maintenance period calculation methods: NAVAIR 00-25-403 [17], DOD, U.S. [4], CERL and US Army [3], with intention to extend the maintenance period of the trainer from current 200 hours to 400 hours. In addition, the maintenance period was calculated by the three methods with actual operational data. Common standards and procedures were established to apply operational data to the existing maintenance period calculation methods, the required reliability indicators were derived, and the maintenance periods was calculated based on the results, additionally, a review on the field applicability of the three maintenance cycles was conducted. An on-site interviews were conducted with the calculation results, and 11 out of the 15 items were expected to be extended by 400 hours. It was suggested that the remaining 4 items could be extended to 400 hours by supplementing the inspection method through additional analysis such as functional analysis, inspection content verification, and site connection.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.13-20
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• 2014

Estimating time and cost is an important mission in the early phase of a construction project, especially in feasibility study. It provides a foundation for making decision whether or not the project is performed on schedule and within budget. Thus, reliability of this estimate plays a key role in measuring the success of a project. This study was carried out to investigate the time-cost relationship in building construction projects in Bangladesh. The mathematical equation used in this study is based on Bromilow's equation. The research data were collected from sixty-three completed building projects through questionnaire survey. Type of clients, type of projects, and tender methods are the project characteristics considered in this study. The results of analysis indicated that the Bromilow's time-cost (BTC) models developed for each project characteristic are appropriate due to quite high coefficient of determination and relatively small mean percent errors. Among them, the forecasted model for time and cost according to tender methods is the best fit model. It is concluded that the BTC model could be applied in building construction project to predict its time and cost in Bangladesh. Four different regression models were also developed in this study. The results of BTC model between some selected countries were compared to gain the comprehensive view.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.1579-1602
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• 2020

In the design of production system, buffer capacity allocation is a major step. Through polymorphism analysis of production capacity and production capability, this paper investigates a buffer allocation optimization problem aiming at the multi-stage production line including unreliable machines, which is concerned with maximizing the system theoretical production rate and minimizing the system state entropy for a certain amount of buffers simultaneously. Stochastic process analysis is employed to establish Markov models for repairable modular machines. Considering the complex structure, an improved vector UGF (Universal Generating Function) technique and composition operators are introduced to construct the system model. Then the measures to assess the system's multi-state reliability and structural complexity are given. Based on system theoretical production rate and system state entropy, mathematical model for buffer capacity optimization is built and optimized by a specific genetic algorithm. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an application of an engine head production line.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.18-24
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• 2012

This paper concerned with the behaviour of shaping formation and the erection for SCST structure by cable-tensioning for three kinds of structure models. The joint types of experimental models are ball type joints, bolt type joints with gusset plates, and bolt type joints. The feasibility of the proposed shaping method and the reliability of the established geometric model were confirmed with a nonlinear finite element analysis and an experimental investigation for full size scaled pyramid test model and three kinds of SCST structure models. The characteristic of the behaviour of each joint type is shown in the shaping test for practical design purposes. As a results, the behaviour characteristics of joints is very significant in shaping analysis of space structures. So the joint type should be considered in the design and analysis of the shape formation for space structures. Also, in the special field condition, it could be a fast and economical method for constructing the space structure.