• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure rate prediction

Search Result 196, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Experimental investigation on multi-parameter classification predicting degradation model for rock failure using Bayesian method

  • Wang, Chunlai;Li, Changfeng;Chen, Zeng;Liao, Zefeng;Zhao, Guangming;Shi, Feng;Yu, Weijian
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.113-120
    • /
    • 2020
  • Rock damage is the main cause of accidents in underground engineering. It is difficult to predict rock damage accurately by using only one parameter. In this study, a rock failure prediction model was established by using stress, energy, and damage. The prediction level was divided into three levels according to the ratio of the damage threshold stress to the peak stress. A classification predicting model was established, including the stress, energy, damage and AE impact rate using Bayesian method. Results show that the model is good practicability and effectiveness in predicting the degree of rock failure. On the basis of this, a multi-parameter classification predicting deterioration model of rock failure was established. The results provide a new idea for classifying and predicting rockburst.

A Study on Failure Rate Prediction of Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine Turbine Blade (항공기 가스터빈엔진 터빈블레이드의 고장률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chun-Yong;Choi, Se-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.21-26
    • /
    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a method for the efficient preventive maintenance of aircraft gas turbine engine turbine blades. For this study, the types and characteristics of gas turbine engines and its turbine blades were studied, the turbine blade defect types that caused an In-Flight Shut Down(IFSD) were analyzed, the blade failure rate according to the blade life cycle was analyzed through the Weibull distribution, one of the statistical techniques. Through these research results, it is possible to supplement the problems of the life cycle management and maintenance method of the turbine blade, and to suggest the measures to strengthen the preventive maintenance of the turbine blade. In this analysis, when total cycle of turbine blade exceeds 18,000 cycles, the failure rate is over 98%, and then the special management measures are required.

Failure Time Prediction by Nonlinear Least Square Method with Deformation Data (계측 자료의 비선형최소자승법을 이용한 파괴시간 예측)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Kim, Byoung-Chul;Jo, Young-Do
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.19 no.6
    • /
    • pp.558-566
    • /
    • 2009
  • Time-dependent behavior is a basic mechanical property of rocks. Predicting the failure time of rock structures by analyzing the time-dependent characteristic is important and problematic. It is tried to predict the failure time of tunnel, slope & laboratory creep test specimen from measured displacement(or strain) and rate with relationship suggested by Voight($\ddot{\Omega}=A\dot{\Omega}^\alpha$, where $\Omega$ is a measurable quantity such as strain & displacement and A & $\alpha$ are constants). A & $\alpha$ are estimated through applying the nonlinear least square method to the single and double integrated Voight's equations and utilized to predict the failure time. Predicted failure time is in accordance with real one except minor error. Linear inverse rate method applied to creep strain and rate yields a poor linear correlation of data and precision of predicted failure time is not better than methods using strain and rate.

The Influence of Temperature on Low Cycle Fatigue Behavior of Prior Cold Worked 316L Stainless Steel (II) - Life Prediction and Failure Mechanism - (냉간 가공된 316L 스테인리스 강의 저주기 피로 거동에 미치는 온도의 영향 (II) - 수명예측 및 파손 기구 -)

  • Hong, Seong-Gu;Yoon, Sam-Son;Lee, Soon-Bok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.27 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1676-1685
    • /
    • 2003
  • Tensile and low cycle fatigue tests on prior cold worked 3l6L stainless steel were carried out at various temperatures ftom room temperature to 650$^{\circ}C$. Fatigue resistance was decreased with increasing temperature and decreasing strain rate. Cyclic plastic deformation, creep, oxidation and interactions with each other are thought to be responsible for the reduction in fatigue resistance. Currently favored life prediction models were examined and it was found that it is important to select a proper life prediction parameter since stress-strain relation strongly depends on temperature. A phenomenological life prediction model was proposed to account for the influence of temperature on fatigue life and assessed by comparing with experimental result. LCF failure mechanism was investigated by observing fracture surfaces of LCF failed specimens with SEM.

A Study on the Reliability Demonstration for Korea High Speed Train Control System (한국형고속철도 열차제어시스템 하부구성요소 신뢰도입증에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Ho;Lee, Kang-Mi;Kim, Young-Kyu;Shin, Duc-Ko
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
    • /
    • v.9 no.6 s.37
    • /
    • pp.732-738
    • /
    • 2006
  • This research provides a scheme for Highly Accelerated Stress Test that is necessary to demonstrate reliability prediction of Korean Rapid Transit Railway Train Control System sub-equipment, which is calculated by a relevant standard for failure rate prediction of electronic products. Although determining failure information generated in the process of trial running by statistic analysis is widely accepted as a measure of confirmation for reliability prediction, this research suggests the modeling for System Life Test determined by accelerating stress factors as a measure of confirmation for reliability prediction of sub-equipment unit that is generated ahead of a trial running in System Life Cycle. Consequently, the research demonstrates sub-equipment unit reliability test, which is based on the model derived from Accelerated Stress Test, according to accuracy level and the number of samples, and conducts an official experiment by making out a reliability test procedure sheet based on test time as well.

Life-cycle estimation of HVDC full-bridge sub-module considering operational condition and redundancy (HVDC 풀-브리지 서브모듈의 동작 조건과 여유율을 고려한 수명예측)

  • Kang, Feel-soon;Song, Sung-Geun
    • Journal of IKEEE
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1208-1217
    • /
    • 2019
  • The life-cycle prediction of the sub-module which is the unit system of MMC is very important from the viewpoint of maintenance and economic feasibility of HVDC system. However, the life-cycle prediction that considers only the type, number and combination of parts is a generalized result that does not take into account the operating condition of the sub-module, and may significantly differ from the life-cycle of the actual one. Therefore, we design a fault tree for the purpose of reflecting the operation characteristics of the full-bridge sub-module and apply the MIL-HDBK-217F to the failure rate of the basic event to predict the life-cycle of the full-bridge sub-module. It compares the life-cycle expectancy of the conventional failure rate analysis with the proposed fault-tree analysis and compares the lifetime according to whether the redundancy of the full-bridge sub-module is considered.

Reliability Evaluation of ATC for High Speed Line Center (고속 Line Center의 ATC 신뢰성 평가)

  • Lee S.W.;Kim D.H.;Lee H.K.;Shin D.H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
    • /
    • 2005.06a
    • /
    • pp.1914-1917
    • /
    • 2005
  • Recently, the reliability evaluation and analysis are applied for many industrial products, and many products are required to guarantee in quality and in efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to present some of reliability evaluation methodologies that are applicable to machine tools. Especially ATC(Automatic Too Changer), which is core component of line center, was chosen as the target of the reliability evaluation and analysis. The scope of research is reliability prediction, reliability test and evaluates their results. The results of this research has shown the failure rate, MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure), reliability for those components and real tests reliability through constructed reliability test-bed. It is expected that proposed methodologies will increase reliability for high speed line center.

  • PDF

An Unavailability Evaluation for a Digital Reactor Protection System (디지털 원자로보호계통 불가용도 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-Yeong;Choe, Jong-Gyun;Kim, Ji-Yeong;Yu, Jun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2005.05a
    • /
    • pp.81-83
    • /
    • 2005
  • The Reactor Protection System (RPS) is a very important system in a nuclear power plant because the system shuts down the reactor to maintain the reactor core integrity and the reactor coolant system pressure boundary if the plant conditions approach the specified safety limits. This paper describes the unavailability assessment of a digital reactor protection system using the fault tree analysis technique. The fault tree technique can be expressed in terms of combinations of the basic event failures. In this paper, a prediction method of the hardware failure rate is suggested for a digital reactor protection system. and applied to the reactor protection system being developed in Korea.

  • PDF

A Safety Assessment Methodology for a Digital Reactor Protection System

  • Lee Dong-Young;Choi Jong-Gyun;Lyou Joon
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
    • /
    • v.4 no.1
    • /
    • pp.105-112
    • /
    • 2006
  • The main function of a reactor protection system is to maintain the reactor core integrity and the reactor coolant system pressure boundary. Generally, the reactor protection system adopts the 2-out-of-m redundant architecture to assure a reliable operation. This paper describes the safety assessment of a digital reactor protection system using the fault tree analysis technique. The fault tree technique can be expressed in terms of combinations of the basic event failures such as the random hardware failures, common cause failures, operator errors, and the fault tolerance mechanisms implemented in the reactor protection system. In this paper, a prediction method of the hardware failure rate is suggested for a digital reactor protection system, and applied to the reactor protection system being developed in Korea to identify design weak points from a safety point of view.

Failure Rate of Solar Monitoring System Hardware using Relex (Relex 를 이용한 태양광 모니터링 시스템 하드웨어 고장률 연구)

  • An, Hyun-sik;Park, Ji-hoon;Kim, Young-chul
    • Journal of Platform Technology
    • /
    • v.6 no.3
    • /
    • pp.47-54
    • /
    • 2018
  • Predictive analysis in the hardware industry can be performed at an appropriate point in time to prevent failure of production facilities and reduce management costs. This helps to perform more efficient and scientific maintenance through automation of failure analysis. Among them, predictive management aims to prevent the occurrence of anomalous state by identifying and improving the abnormal state based on the gathering, analysis, and scientific data management of facilities using information technology and constructing prediction model do. In this study, we made a fault tree through the Relex tool and analyzed the error code of the hardware to study the safety.