• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.48-54
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• 2000

This paper presents the effect of shape of external corrosion in pipeline on failure prediction by using a numerical simulation. The numerical study for the pipeline failure analysis is based on the FEM(Finite Element Method)with an elastic-plstic and large-deformation analysis. Corrosion pits and narrow corrosion grooves in pressurized pipeline were analysed. A failure criterion, based on the local stress state at the corrosion and a plastic collapse failure mechanism, is proposed. The predicted failure stress assessed for the simulated corrosion defects having different corroded shapes along the pipeline axis compared with those by methods specified in ANSI/ASME B31G code and a modified B31G code. It is concluded the corrosion geometry significantly affects the failure behavior of corroded pipeline and categorisation of pipeline corrosion should be considered in the development of new guidance for integrity assessment.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.170-175
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• 2005

This study presents a prediction of a failure rate in a safety required system that consists of a embedded control system, requiring a satisfaction of a quantitative safety requirement. International Standards are employed to achieve a regular procedures in the whole life cycle of a system, for the purpose of a prediction and a evaluation of a fault that might be able to be happened in a system. This International Standards uses SIL (Safety Integrity Level) to evaluate a safety level of a system. SIL is divided into 4 levels, from level 1 to level 4, and each level has functional failure rate and dangerous failure rate of a system. In this paper we describe the conventional method to predict the dangerous failure rate and propose a method using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate. The conventional method and the technique using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate are made a comparison through the control modules of the interlocking system in KTX. The proposed method verify better effectiveness for the prediction of the dangerous failure rate than that of the conventional method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권5호
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• pp.1863-1873
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• 2024

In the Korean domestic nuclear industry, to analyze the reliability of instrumentation and control (I&C) systems, the failure rates of the electronic components constituting the I&C systems are predicted based on the MIL-HDBK-217F standard titled 'Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment'. Based on these predicted failure rates, the mean time to failure of the I&C systems is calculated to determine the replacement period of the I&C systems. However, this conventional approach to the prediction of electronic component failure rates assumes that factors affecting the failure rates such as ambient temperature and operating voltage are static constants. In this regard, the objective of this study is to propose a prediction method for the remaining useful life (RUL) of electronic components considering mean time to failure calculations reflecting dynamic environments, such as changes in ambient temperature and operating voltage. Results of this study show that the RUL of electronic components can be estimated depending on time-varying temperature and electrical stress, implying that the RUL of electronic components can be predicted under dynamic stress conditions.

• 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국조명전기설비학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.363-366
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• 2008

It was accomplished that failure analysis not only failure numbers but also power system components every years. and these informations help power system operation considerably. power system equipment were occurred a break down by natural phenomenon and aging but it was not able to predict this failure number. But many papers and technical repots study for each equipment failure rate and reliability evaluation methods. so this paper show a failure number prediction whole power system component using Markov theory not each component failure probability. the result present a next month system failure number prediction.

• 한국추진공학회지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.111-121
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• 1997

본 연구에서는 탄소/에폭시 복합재료의 기계적 결합부위의 결합강도 예측을 위한 구조해석과 실험을 수행하였다. 복합재료 구조물의 Joint설계에 있어 베어링 파괴는 대단히 중요한 파괴형태 중하나이다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 베어링 파괴를 해석적으로 예측하고 실험적으로 확인하였다. 순수인장 파괴(Net Tension Failure)와 베어링 파괴(Bearing Failure) 실험을 위해서 각각 두 가지 형상의 시편을 선택하였다. 기계적 결합강도 예측에 사용된 방법은 특성길이(Characteristic Length)법과 연관시킨 Yamada-Sun 파괴기준(Failure Criterion)과 Tsai-Hill 최대일 이론이다. 그리고 인장특성길이와 압축특성길이는 실험을 통하여 얻어지며, 특히 압축특성길이 결정은 최근에 착안된 베어링파괴 실험으로부터 결정하였다. 위와 같은 예측 방법을 준등방성(Quasi-Isotropic) Carbon/Epoxy HT245/RS3232에 적용하였다. 연구결과, 이론적인 복합재료 파괴예측이 실험결과와 잘 일치함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.49-68
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• 2023

The three-dimensional failure criterion is essential for maintaining wellbore stability and sand production problem. The convenient factor for a stable wellbore is mud weight and borehole orientation, i.e., mud window design and selection of borehole trajectory. This study proposes a new three-dimensional failure criterion with linear relation of three in-situ principal stresses. The number of failure criteria executed to understand the phenomenon of rock failure under in-situ stresses is the Mohr-Coulomb criterion, Hoek-Brown criterion, Mogi-Coulomb criterion, and many more. A new failure criterion is the extended Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with the influence of intermediate principal stress (σ₂). The influence of intermediate principal stress is considered as a weighting of (σ₂) on the mean effective stress. The triaxial compression test data for eleven rock types are taken from the literature for calibration of material constant and validation of failure prediction. The predictions on rock samples using new criteria are the best fit with the triaxial compression test data points. Here, Drucker-Prager and the Mogi-Coulomb criterion are also implemented to predict the failure for eleven different rock types. It has been observed that the Drucker-Prager criterion gave over prediction of rock failure. On the contrary, the Mogi-Coulomb criterion gave an equally good prediction of rock failure as our proposed new 3D failure criterion. Based on the yield surface of a new 3D linear criterion it gave the safest prediction for the failure of the rock. A new linear failure criterion is recommended for the unique solution as a linear relation of the principal stresses rather than the dual solution by the Mogi-Coulomb criterion.

• Composites Research
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2005

본 논문에서는 복합재료 접합 조인트의 다양한 파손 모드를 고려하여 파손 강도를 예측할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다. 제시된 방법에서는 접착제의 탄성-완전 소성 재료 모델과 층간분리 파손 식을 이용해 접착제 파손 하중과 복합재료 부재의 층간분리 파손 하중을 동시에 계산하였다. 제시된 방법을 유한요소해석에 도입하여 복합재료 Single-Lap 접합조인트의 파손 예측을 수행하였으며 시험결과와 비교하였다 이를 통해 본 방법이 다양한 접합 방법에 따른 실제적인 파손모드 및 파손 하중을 정확하게 예측할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 접착제의 유효강도(또는 접착 성능) 및 소성거동이 복합재료 접합 조인트의 파손 특성에 미치는 영향을 수치적으로 평가하였다. 이를 통해, 복합재료 접합조인트의 파손 강도는 접착제의 접착 성능과 항상 비례하지 않으며 층간분리 파손과 접착제 파손이 동시에 발생하도록 하는 것이 접합 조인트의 강도를 최대로 향상시킬 수 있음을 보였다.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.675-682
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• 2013

Reliability analysis and prediction of next failure time is critical to sustain weapon systems, concerning scheduled maintenance, spare parts replacement and maintenance interventions, etc. Since 1981, many methodology derived from various probabilistic and statistical theories has been suggested to do that activity. Nowadays, many A.I. tools have been used to support these predictions. Support Vector Regression(SVR) is a nonlinear regression technique extended from support vector machine. SVR can fit data flexibly and it has a wide variety of applications. This paper utilizes SVM and SVR with combining time series to predict the next failure time based on historical failure data. A numerical case using failure data from the military equipment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. Finally, the proposed approach is proved meaningful to predict next failure point and to estimate instantaneous failure rate and MTBF.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.26-34
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• 2016

In this study, reliability prediction of the ignition system of hybrid rocket is performed. The FMECA is preceded to the reliability prediction. To this end, the ignition system is divided into 5 components and 19 potential failure modes. The failure cause and effects are identified and criticality analysis is carried out for each failure mode, in which the criticality number is estimated using the failure rate databases. Among the numbers, the failure modes and components with higher criticality and severity are chosen and allocated with higher weighting factor. The reliability predictions are performed using the failure rate databases, from which the current ignition system is found to satisfy the target reliability.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2012

A Failure data from operating condition includes various failures. Reliability evaluation by operating condition is more correct than test condition. Additional, the evaluation result by operating condition is widely used for quality assurance, forecasting amount of manufacturing at EOL. To discover valuable things from the failure data, arrangement of the failure data and information technique to handle data is needed among many failure data. This paper introduces a reliability prediction program to solve this problem based on the failure. And new technologies for parameters estimation with method of Graphic-Wizard-Parameters-Estimation and Genetic Algorithm are introduced.