• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Rate Model

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시장데이타와 실험데이타를 이용한 제품 수명 예측

  • 김진영;전치혁
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.262-265
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    • 1996
  • An ALT(accelerated life testing) method is to test a product in over-stressed conditions, and then the test result is extrapolated to an usual (normal stressed) condition. It is the major disadvantage of ALT method that the more extrapolation to an usual condition applies the bigger error is indispensable. Therefore a reliability model combining field failure data and laboratory test data is required in pratice. We propose several methods of estimating the failure rate of a product life which is assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Structural similarity and technological advances are also cosidered. Finally, We derive the acceleratio factor which can be used to predict the failure rate for a new product.

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A study on lighting performance of 345[KV] model line (345[KV] 송전선로의 뇌방호 실패의 예측과 그 대책에 관한 연구)

  • 이봉용
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 1980
  • Arstrong-Whitehead theory on effective shielding and shielding failure is extended so that it is applicable to vertical line configuration the existing approaches on back-flash rate calculation are summerized and compared in particular on Model Line, and the usefulness of the whitehead approach is suggested.

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A Study on Outage Probability Analysis of HVDC Converter Considering Spare Elements (HVDC 변환소의 여유요소(Spare)를 고려한 사고확률 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ungjin;Choi, Jaeseok;Kim, Chan-Ki;Yoon, Yongbeum
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.11
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    • pp.1408-1414
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as a solution to the problem of maintaining system reliability, stability, and quality occurring worldwide, such as activation of smart grid and recognition of super grid and rapid grid interconnection of renewable energy sources HVDC(High Voltage Direct Current) will appear on the front of the electric power system. These concepts are also very important concepts in HVDC systems. When the HVDC system is linked to the existing power system, it is composed of AC/DC/AC conversion device, and these conversion devices are composed of many thyristors. These parts(Devices) are connected in a complicated manner, and they belong to the one with a higher failure rate. However, the problem of establishing the concept of failure rate of HVDC parts directly linked to economic efficiency and the understanding accompanying it are still insufficient. Therefore, in this paper, we establish the meaning of reliability in power system and try to develop a model to analyze and verify the failure rate data of HVDC based on this.

Determination of an Optimal Repair Number with Achieved Availability Constraint at RND Stage (연구개발 단계에서 성취 가용도를 고려한 최적 수리횟수 결정모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Won;Lee, Kye-Kyong;Na, In-Sung;Park, Myeong-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2008
  • A preventive maintenance model, caller FNBM($\alpha$, $\delta$, $\gamma$)model, is proposed to decide an optimal repair number under achieved availability requirements(r) along with taking two types of failures (repairable or irrepairable) into account. In this model, the current system is replaced by a new one in case when it doesn't meet the achieved availability requirement, even though it is repairable failure; Otherwise it is replaced in time of the first irrepairable failure. Assumed that the j-th failure is repairable with probability ${\alpha}_j$ minimal repairs are allowed for repairable failure between replacements. Expected cost rate for preventive maintenance model is developed using NHPP(Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process) in order to determine the optimal number $n^*$, also numerical examples are shown in order to explain the proposed model. Since the proposed FNBM($\alpha$, $\delta$, $\gamma$)model includes Park FNBM model(1979) and Nakagawa FNBM(p)model(1983) this proposed model is thought to be better than previous model, especially for weapon system which requires availability as primary parameter.

Study of Rehabilitation Priority Order of Pipes for Water Distribution Systems using Utopian Approach (Utopian Approach를 이용한 상수관망 개별관로 개량우선순위 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Do-Guen;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 2010
  • Well planned rehabilitation order of pipes is essential for efficient maintenance and management of Water Distribution Systems. In this study, not only deterioration rate of pipes but also structural and nonstructural failure which causes abnormal condition of WDS is considered to determine rehabilitation order. Probabilistic Neural Network is used for calculating deterioration rate at present and the importance of pipes is computed under structural and nonstructural failure by using Pipe by Pipe Failure Analysis and Effect Index. Utopian Approach, one of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods, is used for assessment of final rehabilitation order based on distance measure between utopian point and alternative one. Developed model in this study shows that it gives more reliable results than existing methods considering hydraulic relative importance does in application to real networks. In this point, the newly developed model, which gives advantages over existing models, can make a credible decision and simple application.

Current Status of an International Co-Operative Research Program, PARTRIDGE (Probabilistic Analysis as a Regulatory Tool for Risk-Informed Decision GuidancE) (국제공동연구 PARTRIDGE를 통한 확률론적 건전성 평가 기술 개발 현황)

  • Kim, Sun Hye;Park, Jung Soon;Kim, Jin Su;Lee, Jin Ho;Yun, Eun Sub;Yang, Jun Seog;Lee, Jae Gon;Park, Hong Sun;Oh, Young Jin;Kang, Sun Yeh;Yoon, Ki Seok;Park, Jai Hak
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2013
  • A probabilistic assessment code, PRO-LOCA ver. 3.7 which was developed in an international co-operative research program, PARTRIDGE was evaluated by conducting sensitivity analysis. The effect of some variables such as simulation methods (adaptive sampling, iteration numbers, weld residual stress model), crack features(Poisson's arrival rate, maximum numbers of cracks, initial flaw size, fabrication flaws), operating and loading conditions(temperature, primary bending stress, earthquake strength and frequency), and inspection model(inspection intervals, detectable leak rate) on the failure probabilities of a surge line nozzle was investigated. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the remaining problems of the PRO-LOCA code such as the instability of adaptive sampling and unexpected trend of failure probabilities at an early stage.

Prognostic Technique for Ball Bearing Damage (볼 베어링 손상 예측진단 방법)

  • Lee, Do Hwan;Kim, Yang Seok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.11
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    • pp.1315-1321
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    • 2013
  • This study presents a prognostic technique for the damage state of a ball bearing. A stochastic bearing fatigue defect-propagation model is applied to estimate the damage progression rate. The damage state and the time to failure are computed by using RMS data from noisy acceleration signals. The parameters of the stochastic defect-propagation model are identified by conducting a series of run-to-failure tests for ball bearings. A regularized particle filter is applied to predict the damage progression rate and update the degradation state based on the acceleration RMS data. The future damage state is predicted based on the most recently measured data and the previously predicted damage state. The developed method was validated by comparing the prognostic results and the test data.

ESTIMATION OF LEAK RATE THROUGH CIRCUMFERENTIAL CRACKS IN PIPES IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • PARK, JAI HAK;CHO, YOUNG KI;KIM, SUN HYE;LEE, JIN HO
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.332-339
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    • 2015
  • The leak before break (LBB) concept is widely used in designing pipe lines in nuclear power plants. According to the concept, the amount of leaking liquid from a pipe should be more than the minimum detectable leak rate of a leak detection system before catastrophic failure occurs. Therefore, accurate estimation of the leak rate is important to evaluate the validity of the LBB concept in pipe line design. In this paper, a program was developed to estimate the leak rate through circumferential cracks in pipes in nuclear power plants using the Henry-Fauske flow model and modified Henry-Fauske flow model. By using the developed program, the leak rate was calculated for a circumferential crack in a sample pipe, and the effect of the flow model on the leak rate was examined. Treating the crack morphology parameters as random variables, the statistical behavior of the leak rate was also examined. As a result, it was found that the crack morphology parameters have a strong effect on the leak rate and the statistical behavior of the leak rate can be simulated using normally distributed crack morphology parameters.

Rate-dependent Viscoplastic-Damage Model of Concrete under Cyclic Loading (반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 재하속도 의존 점소성-손상 모델)

  • 송하원;임현우;김인순
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.468-473
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    • 1998
  • The objective of this paper is to develop a consistent algorithm for the finite element analysis for behavior of concrete under cyclic loading using viscoplastic-damage model. For modeling the behavior of concrete under cyclic loading, consistent algorithms of rate-dependent viscoplastic-damage are employed with a Willam-Warnke 5-parameter failure criterion which can consider the softening behavior of concrete and consistent tangent moduli are derived. Using finite element program implemented with the developed algorithms, the algorithms are verified and the behaviors of concrete under cylic loading are simulated and compared with experimental data.

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Preventive Replacement Policy with the Number of General Repairs (일반수리회수에 의한 장비 교환 정책)

  • 김용필;윤덕금
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a model for determining the optimal number of general repairs and supplementary input cost limit rate in addition to minimal repair cost rate to implement preventive maintenance. The basic concept parallels the periodic replacement model with minimal repair at failure introduced by Barlow and Hunter(1960) and Park(1979), only difference being the replacement signalled by the number of previous general repairs performed on the system. A general repair brings the state of the system to a certain better state than before repaired. Numerical examples are provided.

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