• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Rate Model

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Estimation for Failure Rate of Railway Power Facility and Determination of Maintenance Priority Order using Fuzzy Theory and Expert System (퍼지이론과 전문가 시스템을 이용한 철도 전력 설비의 고장률 평가와 유지보수 우선순위의 결정)

  • Lee, Yun-Seong;Kwon, Ki-Ryang;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2009
  • As the Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is being studied, maintenance tasks can be performed effectively through the Risk Priority Number(RPN) evaluation about the components in the system. The RPN is usually calculated through arithmetical operations of three values, Severity, Occurrence, and Detection for each facility. This RPN provides information that includes risk level of the facility and the priority order of maintenance tasks for facility. However, if there is no sufficient historical failure data, it is difficult to calculate the RPN. In this case, historical failure data from other sources can be used and apply this data to korean railway system. In this paper, it is proposed that a new methodology to model the failure rate as a fuzzy membership function. This method is based on failure data from other sources by means of the fuzzy theory and the expert opinion system. And considering assessment tendency of each expert, distortions that happened when the failure rate of facilities is estimated were minimized. This results determine Occurrence values of facilities. Taking advantage of this result., the RPN can be calculated with Severity and Detection of facilities by using the fuzzy operation. The proposed method is applied the rail-way power substation.

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A Study of Infinite Failure NHPP Software Reliability Growth Model base on Record Value Statistics with Gamma Family of Lifetime Distribution (수명분포가 감마족인 기록값 통계량에 기초한 무한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Sin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2006
  • Infinite failure NHPP models for a record value satisfies mode proposed in the literature exhibit either monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, propose comparative study of software reliability model using Erlang distribution, Rayleigh and Gumbel distribution. Equations to estimate the parameters using maximum likelihood estimation of infinite failure NHPP model based on failure data collected in the form of interfailure times are developed. For the sake of proposing distribution, we used to the special pattern. Analysis of failure data set using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, goodness-of-fit test, bias tests is presented.

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A Study on Critical Success Factors for Enterprise Systems Implementation: A Failure Case Analysis Based on Process Theory (엔터프라이즈 시스템 구현의 핵심성공요소에 관한 연구: 프로세스이론을 기반으로 한 실패사례 분석)

  • Kim, Hee-Woong;Kwahk, Kee-Young
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.251-272
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    • 2007
  • Although Enterprise Systems (ES) have promised major strategic benefits and process improvements from business and technology integration, their implementation has been plagued by a high failure rate and difficulty in realizing the promised benefits. For the purpose of understanding implementation failures, previous studies have focused on identifying critical success factors (CSFs) for information systems implementation. However, there has been little research on how these CSFs actually lead to successful results. In this study, based on process theory, we examined the process of ES implementation by explaining how the factors of ES implementation influence each other and how interaction among them produces results. Based on a failure case, we then developed a process model of ES implementation thus allowing us to explain the process of ES implementation. The proposed model facilitated an understanding of how repeating patterns of ES failure can be reversed. This model can be used for guiding new ES implementation projects.

Reliability estimation for shared load model with guarantee time under censoring scheme (중도절단계획 하에서 보증시간을 가지는 부하분배모형의 신뢰도추정)

  • Cha, Young-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.467-474
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    • 2009
  • There are many situations arising in reliability engineering and biomedical science where failure of a subsystem increases the failure rate of other subsystem under shared load models. In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimates and the modified maximum likelihood estimates of mean time to failure and reliability function for shared load model with guarantee time are obtained by using censored system life data. Some illustrative examples are included.

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Reliability Estimation and Dynamic Deformation of Polymeric Material Using SHPB Technique and Probability Theory (SHPB 기법과 확률이론을 이용한 고분자재료의 동적거동특성 및 건전성 평가)

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.32 no.9
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    • pp.740-753
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    • 2008
  • The conventional Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (C-SHPB) technique with aluminum pressure bars to achieve a closer impedance match between the pressure bars and the specimen materials such as hot temperature degraded POM (Poly Oxy Methylene) and PP (Poly Propylene) to obtain more distinguishable experimental signals is used to obtain a dynamic behavior of material deformation under a high strain rate loading condition. An experimental modification with Pulse shaper is introduced to reduce the nonequilibrium on the dynamic material response during a short test period to increase the rise time of the incident pulse for two polymeric materials. For the dynamic stress strain curve obtained from SHPB experiment under high strain rate, the Johnson-Cook model is applied as a constitutive equation, and we verify the applicability of this constitutive equation to the probabilistic reliability estimation method. The methodology to estimate the reliability using the probabilistic method such as the FORM and the SORM has been proposed, after compose the limit state function using Johnson-Cook model. It is found that the failure probability estimated by using the SORM is more reliable than those of the FORM, and the failure probability increases with the increase of applied stress. Moreover, it is noted that the parameters of Johnson-Cook model such as A and n, and applied stress affect the failure probability more than the other random variables according to the sensitivity analysis.

Failure simulation of nuclear pressure vessel under severe accident conditions: Part I - Material constitutive modeling

  • Eui-Kyun Park;Ji-Su Kim;Jun-Won Park;Yun-Jae Kim;Yukio Takahashi;Kukhee Lim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.4146-4158
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes a combined plastic and creep constitutive model of A533B1 pressure vessel steel to simulate progressive deformation of nuclear pressure vessels under severe accident conditions. To develop the model, recent tensile test data covering a wide range of temperatures (from RT to 1,100 ℃) and strain rates (from 0.001%/s to 1.0%/s) was used. Comparison with experimental data confirms that the proposed combined plastic and creep model can well reflect effects of temperature and strain rate on tensile behaviour up to failure. In the companion paper (Part II), the proposed model will be used to simulate OECD lower head failure (OLHF) test data.

An Approach for the NHPP Software Reliability Model Using Erlang Distribution (어랑 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Hee-Cheul;Choi Yue-Soon;Park Jong-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2006
  • The finite failure NHPP models proposed in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, we propose the Erlang reliability model, which can capture the increasing nature of the failure occurrence rate per fault. Equations to estimate the parameters of the Erlang finite failure NHPP model based on failure data collected in the form of inter-failure times are developed. For the sake of proposing shape parameter of the Erlang distribution, we used to the goodness-of-fit test of distribution. Data set, where the underlying failure process could not be adequately described by the existing models, which motivated the development of the Erlang model. Analysis of the failure data set which led us to the Erlang model, using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, goodness-of-fit test, bias tests is presented.

Cost Analysis Model for Periodic Maintenance Policy with Maintenance Cost Factor (보전비용요소를 고려한 정기보전정책의 비용분석모델)

  • 김재중;김원중
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.18 no.36
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    • pp.287-295
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    • 1995
  • This paper is concerned with cost analysis model in periodic maintenance policy. Generally periodic maintenance policy in which item is repaired periodic interval times. And in the article minimal repair is considered. Mimimal repair means that if a unit fails, unit is instantaneously restored to same hazard rate curve as before failure. In the paper periodic maintenance policy with minimal repair is as follows; Operating unit is periodically replaced in periodic maintenance time, if a failure occurs between minimal repair and periodic maintenance time, unit is replaced by a new item until tile periodic maintenance time comes. Also unit undergoes minimal repair at failures in minimal-repair-for-failure interval. Then total expected cost per unit time is calculated according to scale parameter of failure distribution. Maintenance cost factors are included operating, fixed, minimal repair, periodic maintenance and new item replacement cost. Numerical example is shown in which failure time of system has weibull distribution.

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Optimal Plan of Partially Accelerated Life Tests under Type I Censoring

  • Moon, Gyoung-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 1994
  • In this paper, we consider optimum plan to determine stress change times under the three-step stress PALTs, assuming that each test units follows an exponential distribution. The tampered random variable(TRV) model for the three-step stress PALTs setup are introduced, and maximum likelihood estimators(MLEs) of the failure rate and the acceleration factors are obtained. The change times to minimize the generalized asymptotic variance(GAVR) of MLEs of the failure rate and the acceleration factors are proposed for the three-step stress PALTs.

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The Study on the Failure Rate Sampling Plan Considering Cost (비용을 고려한 신뢰성 샘플링검사 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 조재립
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.23 no.59
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    • pp.97-103
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    • 2000
  • This study considers the design of life test sampling inspection plans by attributes for failure rate level qualification at selected confidence level. The lifetime distribution of products is assumed to be exponential. MIL-STD-690C and KS C 6032 standards provide this procedures. But these procedures have some questions to apply in the field. The cost of test and confidence level($1-{\beta}$ risk) are the problem between supplier and user. So, we suggest that the optimal life test sampling inspection plans using expected cost model considering product cost, capability, environmental test cost, etc.

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