• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
• /
• v.23 no.6_2
• /
• pp.1103-1110
• /
• 2020

In this study, a segmented model with Upside-Down bathtub shaped failure intensity for a repairable system are proposed under the assumption that the occurrences of the failures of a repairable system follow the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process. The proposed segmented model is the compound model of S-PLP and LIP (Segmented Power Law Process and Logistic Intensity Process), that fits the separate failure intensity functions on each segment of time interval. The maximum likelihood estimation is used for estimating the parameters of the S-PLP and LIP model. The case study of system A shows that the S-PLP and LIP model fits better than the other models when compared by AICc (Akaike Information Criterion corrected) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). And it also implies that the S-PLP and LIP model can be useful for explaining the failure intensities of similar systems.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.19-27
• /
• 2014

Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the reliability model with log type mean value function (Musa-Okumoto and log power model), which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using real data set for the sake of proposing log type mean value function was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with log type mean value function. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the log type model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 70% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.43 no.11
• /
• pp.967-976
• /
• 2010

AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) model of FORM (First-Order Reliability Model) which can quantitatively calculate the probability that storm sewer reach to performance limit state was developed in this study. It was defined as a failure if amount of inflow exceed the capacity of storm sewer. Manning's equation and rational equation were used to determine the capacity and inflow of reliability function. Furthermore, statistical characteristics and distribution for the random variables were analyzed as a reliability analysis. It was found that the statistical distribution for annual maximum rainfall intensity of 10 cities in Korea is matched well with Gumbel distribution. Reliability model developed in this study was applied to Y shaped storm sewer system to calculate the probability that storm sewer may exceed the performance limit state. Probability of failure according to diameter was calculated using Manning's equation. Especially, probability of failure of storm sewer in Mungyeong and Daejeon was calculated using rainfall intensity of 50-year return period. It was found that probability of failure can be significantly increased if diameter is decreased below the original diameter. Therefore, cleaning the debris in sewer pipes to maintain the original pipe diameter should be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of failure of storm sewer. In sewer system, two sewer pipes can flow into one sewer pipe. For this case, probability of system failure was calculated using multiple failure mode. Reliability model developed in this study can be applied to design, maintenance, management, and control of storm sewer system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2004.10a
• /
• pp.630-633
• /
• 2004

Generally, component and FR-4 board are connected by solder joint. Because material properties of components and FR-4 board are different, component and FR-4 board show different coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) and thus strains in component and board are different when they are heated. That is, the differences in CTE of component and FR-4 board cause the dissimilarity in shear strain and BGA solder joint s failure. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with thermal fatigue models is used in order to estimate the failure probability of solder joints under heated condition. A model based on plastic-strain rate such as the Coffin-Manson Fatigue Model is utilized in this study. The effects of random variables such as frequency, maximum temperature, and temperature variations on the failure probability of the BGA solder joint are systematically investigated by using a failure probability model with the first order reliability method(FORM).

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.45-55
• /
• 2017

Stainless steel exhibits high ductility and strain hardening capacity in comparison with carbon steel widely used in constructions. To analyze the particular behaviour of stainless steel cover-plate joints, an experimental study was conducted. It showed large ductility and complex failure modes of the joints. A non-linear finite element model was developed to predict the main parameters influencing the behaviour of these joints. The results of this deterministic model allow us to built a meta-model by using the quadratic response surface method, in order to allow for efficient reliability analysis. This analysis is then applied to the assessment of design formulae in the currently used codes of practice. The reliability analysis has shown that the stainless steel joint design according to Eurocodes leads to much lower failure probabilities than the Eurocodes target reliability for carbon steel, which incites revising the resisting model evaluation and consequently reducing stainless steel joint costs. This approach can be used as a basis to evaluate a wide range of steel joints involving complex failure modes, particularly bearing failure.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2001

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a proportional reversed hazard rate model, in contrast to the celebrated proportional hazard model, and study some of its structural properties. Some criteria of ageing are presented and the inheritance of the ageing notions (of the base line distribution) by the proposed model are studied. Two important data sets are analyzed: one uncensored and the other having some censored observations. In both cases, the confidence bands for the failure rate and survival function are investigated. In one case the failure rate is bathtub shaped and in the other it is upside bath tub shaped and thus the failure rates are non-monotonic even though the baseline failure rate is monotonic. In addition, the estimates of the turning points of the failure rates are provided.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.52 no.12
• /
• pp.2887-2900
• /
• 2020

Cladding failure in a fuel rod during operation in a BWR is analyzed using a FALCON code-based model. Comparative calculation with a neighbouring, intact rod is presented, as well. A considerable 'hot spot' effect in cladding temperature is predicted with the SLICE-DO model due to a thermal barrier caused by the localized crud deposition. Particularly significant overheating is expected to occur on the affected side of the cladding of the failed rod, in agreement with signs of significant localized crud deposition as revealed by Post Irradiation Examination. Different possibilities (criteria) are checked, and Pellet-Cladding Mechanical Interaction (PCMI) is shown to be one of the plausible potential threats. It is shown that PCMI could lead to discernible concentrated inelastic deformation in the overheated part of the cladding. None of the specific mechanisms considered can be experimentally or analytically identified as an only cause of the rod failure. However, according to the current calculation, a possibility of cladding failure by PCMI cannot be excluded if the crud thickness exceeded 300 ㎛.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.29 no.5 s.236
• /
• pp.689-697
• /
• 2005

This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, $B_{10}$ life and its lower bound with $90\%$ confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
• /
• 2004.07a
• /
• pp.303-311
• /
• 2004

This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, B$_{10}$ life and its lower bound with 90% confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.a.

• Advanced Composite Materials
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.233-249
• /
• 2009

Safe installation and operation of high-pressure composite cylinders for hydrogen storage are of primary concern. It is unavoidable for the cylinders to experience temperature variation and significant thermal input during service. The maximum failure pressure that the cylinder can sustain is affected due to the dependence of composite material properties on temperature and complexity of cylinder design. Most of the analysis reported for high-pressure composite cylinders is based on simplifying assumptions and does not account for complexities like thermo-mechanical behavior and temperature dependent material properties. In the present work, a comprehensive finite element simulation tool for the design of hydrogen storage cylinder system is developed. The structural response of the cylinder is analyzed using laminated shell theory accounting for transverse shear deformation and geometric nonlinearity. A composite failure model is used to evaluate the failure pressure under various thermo-mechanical loadings. A back-propagation neural network (NNk) model is developed to predict the maximum failure pressure using the analysis results. The failure pressures predicted from NNk model are compared with those from test cases. The developed NNk model is capable of predicting the failure pressure for any given loading condition.