• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.503-519
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• 2005

Cointegration test is usually performed under the assumption that the cointegrating vector is constant for the whole sample period. Most previous studies have used conventional cointegration methods in testing for a stable long-run equilibrium relation among related variables. However they have overlooked that the long-run equilibrium may not the unique and the stable relation may not be guaranteed. This study develops the additional statistical tests for the stability of the estimated cointegrating vector. Three tests for the parameter stability of a cointegrated regression model are utilized and applied to identify the types of variations in the long-run relation between the domestic unemployment and the rotated macroeconomic variables of interest. The present paper finds that, there exists a stable but, time-varying long-run relation between those. The observed variation in cointegrating relations is generally characterized by a discrete one-time shift, rather than a gradually evolving random walk process which is attributable to the IMF financial and economic crisis.