• Title/Summary/Keyword: Extreme distribution

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Yield Comparison Simulation between Seasonal Climatic Scenarios for Italian Ryegrass (Lolium Multiflorum Lam.) in Southern Coastal Regions of Korea (우리나라 남부해안지역에서 이탈리안 라이그라스에 대한 계절적 기후시나리오 간 수량비교 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Moonju;Sung, Kyung Il
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to compare the DMY (dry matter yield) of IRG (Italian ryegrass) in the southern coastal regions of Korea due to seasonal climate scenarios such as the Kaul-Changma (late monsoon) in autumn, extreme winter cold, and drought in the next spring. The IRG data (n = 203) were collected from various Reports for Collaborative Research Program to Develop New Cultivars of Summer Crops in Jeju, 203 Namwon, and Yeungam from the Rural Development Administration - (en DASH). In order to define the seasonal climate scenarios, climate variables including temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine were used by collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. The discriminant analysis based on 5% significance level was performed to distinguish normal and abnormal climate scenarios. Furthermore, the DMY comparison was simulated based on the information of sample distribution of IRG. As a result, in the southern coastal regions, only the impact of next spring drought on DMY of IRG was critical. Although the severe winter cold was clearly classified from the normal, there was no difference in DMY. Thus, the DMY comparison was simulated only for the next spring drought. Under the yield comparison simulation, DMY (kg/ha) in the normal and drought was 14,743.83 and 12,707.97 respectively. It implies that the expected damage caused by the spring drought was about 2,000 kg/ha. Furthermore, the predicted DMY of spring drought was wider and slower than that of normal, indicating on high variability. This study is meaningful in confirming the predictive DMY damage and its possibility by spring drought for IRG via statistical simulation considering seasonal climate scenarios.

Effect and uncertainty analysis according to input components and their applicable probability distributions of the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (Modified Surface Water Supply Index의 입력인자와 적용 확률분포에 따른 영향과 불확실성 분석)

  • Jang, Suk Hwan;Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Oh, Ji Hwan;Jo, Joon Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.475-488
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    • 2017
  • To simulate accurate drought, a drought index is needed to reflect the hydrometeorological phenomenon. Several studies have been conducted in Korea using the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (MSWSI) to simulate hydrological drought. This study analyzed the limitations of MSWSI and quantified the uncertainties of MSWSI. The influence of hydrometeorological components selected as the MSWSI components was analyzed. Although the previous MSWSI dealt with only one observation for each input component such as streamflow, ground water level, precipitation, and dam inflow, this study included dam storage level and dam release as suitable characteristics of the sub-basins, and used the areal-average precipitation obtained from several observations. From the MSWSI simulations of 2001 and 2006 drought events, MSWSI of this study successfully simulated drought because MSWSI of this study followed the trend of observing the hydrometeorological data and then the accuracy of the drought simulation results was affected by the selection of the input component on the MSWSI. The influence of the selection of the probability distributions to input components on the MSWSI was analyzed, including various criteria: the Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions for precipitation data; normal and Gumbel distributions for streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal and Gumbel distributions for dam inflow, storage level, and release discharge data; and 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. Then, the maximum 36 MSWSIs were calculated for each sub-basin, and the ranges of MSWSI differed significantly according to the selection of probability distributions. Therefore, it was confirmed that the MSWSI results may differ depending on the probability distribution. The uncertainty occurred due to the selection of MSWSI input components and the probability distributions were quantified using the maximum entropy. The uncertainty thus increased as the number of input components increased and the uncertainty of MSWSI also increased with the application of probability distributions of input components during the flood season.

Analyses of the Test Problems for Admission at the Science Education Center for Gifted Youth (과학영재교육센터 학생선발문항 분석 및 선발방법에 대한 제언)

  • Lee, Sang-Bub;Lee, Kwang-Pill;Choi, Sang-Don;Hwang, Suk-Geun
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.604-621
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    • 1999
  • We analyze the admission test problems used in 1998 at the Science Education Center for Gifted Youth at Kyungpook National University (SECGY, KNU). The test consists of two parts, an evaluation of the scientific thinking skills and an evaluation of the achievement for Mathematics and Sciences, the former of which includes evaluations of scientific process skills and logical thinking skills. The problems for the test of scientific thinking skills were developed and standardized by the Korea Education Development Center, while those of the achievement for Mathematics and Sciences were made at SECGY. We calculate the indices of the difficulty and discrimination for each problem to determine whether or not the test is appropriate to apply for selecting number of gifted students among the recommended students from 389 middle schools in Taegu-city and Kyungsang-pook-do Province. We find that both indices of most problems for the test of scientific thinking skills were out range of the appropriate level and. moreover, even those problems which fall into the appropriate range showed very low efficiencies for distractors. We, thus, conclude that the problems of the test of scientific thinking skills are inappropriate to use as a test for admission to SECGY. On the other hand, the problems of the achievement test showed extreme results; the Mathematics problems appeared to be too difficult, whereas the Physics problems appeared too easy. However, overall scores showed a normal distribution, indicating that those problems played crucial role in selecting gifted students. We finally propose several suggestions in developing the test problems and in selecting students at the SECGY.

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Changes of Periodic Markets by Transportation Facilities Development in the Middle Stream Region of Han-River during the Late Chosun dynasty and Japanese Colony Period (구한말${\sim}$일제강점기 한강 중류지역에 있어서 교통기관의 발달에 따른 유통구조의 변화)

  • Kim, Jae-Wan;Lee, Ki-Bong
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.1-36
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    • 2000
  • Periodic markets of the later Choson dynasty had undergone fundamental changes during the late Chosun dynasty and Japanese colony period. This paper aims to analyse the spatial distributions and changes of the periodic markets in the middle stream of Han-River in this era in the use of the survey of documentary records and fieldwork. Before the early 1910s, long distance transportation was made by riverboats, short distance transportation was done by porters and pack animals. Because goods such as rice, soybean and salt were very heavy and needed long distance transport, they were mainly transported by riverboats. Accordingly, riverports on the shore of river played important roles in exporting and importing goods as nodes of long distance transportation. The opening of railroad Seoul-Busan, the construction of new roads(Sinjakno) of 1910s and the use of oxcarts produced striking changes in the spatial distribution and hierarchy structure of periodic markets. These changes also had influence on the outflow and inflow of goods in the middle stream of Han-River. In the parr of outflow of goods, it seems that the line linking Icheon city-Yongin city-Anseong city played a role in making the boundaries of the marketing areas between goods trams ported by the rail road Seoul-Busan and goods done by Han River river boats. Anseong, Osan and Suwon periodic markets located around railroad stations occupied the higher positions than those of other regions in the hierarchial structure of periodic markets. Their marketing areas could nearly overwhelm those of riverports located in the middle stream region of Han River and extend to the middle stream region of Han River as a result of decrease of transport cost through using of oxcarts and railroads. the opening of railroad Suwon-Yeoju(Suryoson) and railroad Cheonan-Janghawon(Cheonjangson) brought about changes of the structure of long distance trade again. In a part of outflow of goods, it seems that as a result of the new opening of their railroads periodic markets around railroads seized a large portion of the marketing area of the southern part of Yoju and Ichon area and therefore made extreme change in rivershipping of Han River. In the inflow part of goods, goods transported by riverboats from the downstream of Han River before the opening of railroad were imported directly from railroad stations. Accordingly, rivershipping and riverports declined. And because goods were imported by way of great periodic markets and supplied to small periodic markets and consumers before the opening of railroad, but supplied from railroad stations to small periodic markets and consumers after the opening of railroad. The volume of turnover of such great periodic markets as Anseong, Osan and Suwon periodic markets therefore declined. On the other hand, because Yangpyong area had not been yet included within the sphere of influence of railroad until 1930s, it heavily depended on rivershipping of Han River as before. But the opening of railroad Seoul-Wonju(jungangson) brought about decline of rivershipping in Yangpyong and Wonju area.

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Monitoring Ground-level SO2 Concentrations Based on a Stacking Ensemble Approach Using Satellite Data and Numerical Models (위성 자료와 수치모델 자료를 활용한 스태킹 앙상블 기반 SO2 지상농도 추정)

  • Choi, Hyunyoung;Kang, Yoojin;Im, Jungho;Shin, Minso;Park, Seohui;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1053-1066
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    • 2020
  • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is primarily released through industrial, residential, and transportation activities, and creates secondary air pollutants through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Long-term exposure to SO2 can result in a negative effect on the human body causing respiratory or cardiovascular disease, which makes the effective and continuous monitoring of SO2 crucial. In South Korea, SO2 monitoring at ground stations has been performed, but this does not provide spatially continuous information of SO2 concentrations. Thus, this research estimated spatially continuous ground-level SO2 concentrations at 1 km resolution over South Korea through the synergistic use of satellite data and numerical models. A stacking ensemble approach, fusing multiple machine learning algorithms at two levels (i.e., base and meta), was adopted for ground-level SO2 estimation using data from January 2015 to April 2019. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting were used as based models and multiple linear regression was adopted for the meta-model. The cross-validation results showed that the meta-model produced the improved performance by 25% compared to the base models, resulting in the correlation coefficient of 0.48 and root-mean-square-error of 0.0032 ppm. In addition, the temporal transferability of the approach was evaluated for one-year data which were not used in the model development. The spatial distribution of ground-level SO2 concentrations based on the proposed model agreed with the general seasonality of SO2 and the temporal patterns of emission sources.

Removal of Red Tide Organisms -1. flocculation of Red Tide Organisms by Using IOSP- (적조생물의 구제 -1. IOSP에 의한 적조생물의 응집제거-)

  • KIM Sung-Jae;CHO Kyu-Dae
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.448-454
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    • 2000
  • This study was to examine the physicochemical characteristics of coagulation reaction between ignited oyster shell powder (IOSP) and red tide organisms (RTO), and its feasibility, in developing a technology for the removal of RTO bloom in coastal sea,IOSP was made from oyster shell and its physicochemical characteristics were examined for particle size distribution, surface characteristic by scanning electron microscope, zeta potential, and alkalinity and pH variations in sea water. Two kinds of RTO that were used in this study, Cylindrotheca closterium and Skeletonema costatum, were sampled in Masan bay and were cultured in laboratory. Coagulation experiments were conducted using various c(Incentrations of IOSP, RTO, and a jar tester. The supernatant and RTO culture solution were analyzed for pH, alkalinity, RTO cell number, IOSP showed positive zeta potentials of $11.1{\~}50.1\;mV\;at\;pH\;6.2{\~}12.7$, A positive zeta potential of IOSP slowly decreased with decreasing pNa 4,0 to 2,0. When pNa reached zero, the zeta potential approached zero, When a pMg value was decreased, the positive zeta potential of IOSP increased until pMg 3.0 and decreased below pMg 3.0. IOSP showed 4.8 mV of positive zeta potential while RTO showed -9.2 mV of negative zeta potential in sea water. A positive-negative EDL (electrical double-layer) interaction occurred between $Mg(OH)_2$ adsorption layer of IOSP and RTO in sea water so that EDL attractive force always worked between them. Hence, their coagulation reaction occurred at primary minimum on which an extreme attractive force acted because of charge neutralization by $Mg(OH)_2$ adsorption layer of IOSP. As a result, the coagulation reaction was rapidly processed and was irreversible according to DLVO (Deriaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek) theory. Removal rates of RTO were exponentially increased with increasing both IOSP concentration and G-value. The removal rates were steeply increased until 50 mg/l of IOSP and reached $100{\%}\;at\;400\;mg/l$ of IOSP. Removal rates of RTO were $70.5,\;70.5,\;81.7,\;85.3{\%}$ for G-values of $1,\;6,\;29,\;139\;sec^(-1)$at IOSP 100 mg/l, respectively. This indicated that mixing (i.e., collision among particles) was very important for a coagulation reaction.

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Development and Validation of Korean Composit Burn Index(KCBI) (한국형 산불피해강도지수(KCBI)의 개발 및 검증)

  • Lee, Hyunjoo;Lee, Joo-Mee;Won, Myoung-Soo;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.1
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2012
  • CBI(Composite Burn Index) developed by USDA Forest Service is a index to measure burn severity based on remote sensing. In Korea, the CBI has been used to investigate the burn severity of fire sites for the last few years. However, it has been an argument on that CBI is not adequate to capture unique characteristics of Korean forests, and there has been a demand to develop KCBI(Korean Composite Burn Index). In this regard, this study aimed to develop KCBI by adjusting the CBI and to validate its applicability by using remote sensing technique. Uljin and Youngduk, two large fire sites burned in 2011, were selected as study areas, and forty-four sampling plots were assigned in each study area for field survey. Burn severity(BS) of the study areas were estimated by analyzing NDVI from SPOT images taken one month later of the fires. Applicability of KCBI was validated with correlation analysis between KCBI index values and NDVI values and their confusion matrix. The result showed that KCBI index values and NDVI values were closely correlated in both Uljin (r = -0.54 and p<0.01) and Youngduk (r = -0.61 and p<0.01). Thus this result supported that proposed KCBI is adequate index to measure burn severity of fire sites in Korea. There was a number of limitations, such as the low correlation coefficients between BS and KCBI and skewed distribution of KCBI sampling plots toward High and Extreme classes. Despite of these limitations, the proposed KCBI showed high potentials for estimating burn severity of fire sites in Korea, and could be improved by considering the limitations in further studies.

Evaluation of Cultivation Limit Area for Different Types of Barley owing to Climate Change based on Cultivation Status and Area of Certified Seed Request (기후변화에 따른 맥종별 재배실태와 보급종 보급지역에 의한 재배한계지 평가)

  • Park, Hyun Hwa;Lee, Hyo Jin;Roh, Sug Won;Hwangbo, Hoon;Kuk, Yong In
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to determine the extent to which climate change is expanding areas in which barley can be successfully cultivated. In 2019 and 2020, we collected data on areas that had requested certified seeds from the Korea Seed and Variety Service to determine potential cultivation areas. In addition, we surveyed the growth and yield of different types of barley in fields. Certified seeds of hulled and dehulled barley were requested by farmers across Korea from the Korea Seed and Variety Service in both years. Areas that were provided with certified seeds were considered potential barley cultivation areas. The varieties and use rates of certified seeds varied based on the barley type and region. For example, certified seeds of dehulled barley in 2019 and 2020 were not used in some areas, whereas in others, these seeds constituted 100% of the seeds sown for barley crops. In 2019 and 2020, the average sowing days in Korea were from October 17 to November 9 for dehulled barley, October 26 to November 13 for hulled barley, October 19 to November 5 for malting barley, and October 3 to November 1 for naked oats. Thus, the sowing days of the barley types varied depending on the area and year they were used. For example, in the case of hulled barley in Jeonnam, some farmers sowed until December 12. The yield per 10 a of barley cultivation was typically higher in the main production areas than in the cultivation limit areas. In extreme cases, harvest was impossible in some cultivation limited areas, such as Gangwon-do. Based on the current 20-year January minimum average temperature (JMAT) in Korea (2002-2021), climate change scenarios suggest that barley cultivation is feasible, provided that the minimum temperature in January is no lower than -10℃, -8℃, and -4℃ for hulled barley, dehulled barley, and for malting barley and naked oats, respectively. Additionally, cultivation of barley across South Korea seems feasible based on data on certified barley seeds by area. Although both JMAT and certified seed data suggest that barley cultivation across Korea is feasible, our survey results of barley growth and yield showed that harvest was impossible in certain cultivation areas, such as Gangwon-do. Therefore, climate change scenarios related to the cultivation limits of different barley types need to be re-estimated by factoring in survey data on the growth and yield of crops within those cultivation areas.

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA (HadGEM3-RA 지역기후모델을 이용한 CORDEX 동아시아 2단계 지역의 기온과 강수 모의 평가)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.

A Study on the Wind Ventilation Forest Planning Techniques for Improving the Urban Environment - A Case Study of Daejeon Metropolitan City - (도시환경 개선을 위한 바람길숲 조성 계획기법 개발 연구 - 대전광역시를 사례로 -)

  • Han, Bong-Ho;Park, Seok-Cheol;Park, Soo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.28-41
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    • 2023
  • The objective of the study was to develop an Urban Windway Forest Creation Planning Technique for the Improvement of the Urban Environment using the case of Daejeon Metropolitan City. Through a spatial analysis of fine dust and heat waves, a basin zone, in which the concentration was relatively serious, was derived, and an area with the potential of cold air flow was selected as the target area for the windway forest development by analyzing the climate and winds in the relevant zone. Extreme fine dust areas included the areas of the Daejeon Industrial Complex Regeneration Business District in Daedeok-gu and Daedeok Techno Valley in Yuseong-gu. Heat wave areas included the areas of Daedeok industrial Complex in Moksang-dong, the Daejeon Industrial Complex Regeneration Business District in Daehwa-dong, and the high-density residential area in Ojeong-dong. As a result of measuring the wind speeds in Daejeon with an Automatic Weather System, the average wind speeds during the day and night were 0.1 to 1.7 m/s,, respectively. So, a plan of for a windway forest that smoothly induces the movement of cold air formed in outer forests at night is required. The fine dust/heat wave intensive management zones of Daejeon Metropolitan City were Daejeoncheon, Yudeungcheon, Gapcheon-Yudeungcheon, and Gapcheon. The windway forest formation plan case involved the old city center of Daejeon Metropolitan City among the four zones, the Gapcheon-Yudeungcheon area, in which the windway formation effect was presumed to be high. The Gapcheon-Yudeungcheon area is a downtown area that benefits from the cold and fresh air generated on Mt. Gyejok and Mt. Wuseong, which are outer forests. Accordingly, the windway forest was planned to spread the cold air to the city center by connecting the cold air generated in the Seosa-myeon forest of Mt. Gyejok and the Namsa-myeon forest of Mt. Wuseong through Gapcheon, Yudeungcheon, and street forests. After selecting the target area for the wind ventilation forest, a climate map and wind formation function evaluation map were prepared for the area, the status of variation wind profiles (night), the status of fine dust generation, and the surface temperature distribution status were grasped in detail. The wind ventilation forest planning concept and detailed target sites by type were identified through this. In addition, a detailed action plan was established according to the direction of creation and setting of the direction of creation for each type of wind ventilation forest.