• Title/Summary/Keyword: Extreme Value analysis

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Long-Period Wave Oscillations in Sokcho Harbor and Cheongcho Lagoon (1. Field Measurements and Data Analyses) (속초항과 청초호의 부진동 특성 (1. 현장관측과 자료 분석))

  • 정원무;박우선;김규한;채장원;김지희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2002
  • To investigate long-period wave responses in Sokcho Harbor and Cheongcho lagoon, field measurements were made for long-and short-period waves and current velocities using a Directional Waverider, a ultrasonic-type wave gauge, four pressure-type wave gauges, and a current meter. From the data analysis, it was found that the Helmholtz resonant periods of Sokcho Harbor and Cheongcho lagoon are about 13.6 and 54.5 minutes, respectively, and the dominant period of wave induced current in the passage between Sokcho Harbor and Cheongcho lagoon is about 55.2 minutes which depends on Helmholtz resonant condition of the Cheongcho lagoon. It was also found that the energy level of the far-infra-gravity waves during storm conditions is very high compared with that during calm sea conditions. To investigate relationships between far-infra-gravity waves and short-period waves at offshore station, regression analyses were carried out especially for 1) heights, 2) periods, 3) direction and height, 4) height and period between short-and far-infra-gravity waves, respectively. The results showed that the long-period wave height is highly correlated with the short-period wave height. However, no special trend was found for the other relations. In the future far-infra-gravity wave heights on return period around Sokcho Harbor region can be suggested by using extreme value analyses of long term measured data.

Anti-inflammatory activity of a sulfated polysaccharide isolated from an enzymatic digest of brown seaweed Sargassum horneri in RAW 264.7 cells

  • Sanjeewa, Kalu Kapuge Asanka;Fernando, Ilekkuttige Priyan Shanura;Kim, Eun-A;Ahn, Ginnae;Jee, Youngheun;Jeon, You-Jin
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2017
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Sargassum horneri is an edible brown alga that grows in the subtidal zone as an annual species along the coasts of South Korea, China, and Japan. Recently, an extreme amount of S. horneri moved into the coasts of Jeju Island from the east coast of China, which made huge economic and environmental loss to the Jeju Island. Thus, utilization of this biomass becomes a big issue with the local authorities. Therefore, the present study was performed to evaluate the anti-inflammatory potential of crude polysaccharides (CPs) extracted from S. horneri China strain in lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated RAW 264.7 cells. MATERIALS/METHODS: CPs were precipitated from S. horneri digests prepared by enzyme assistant extraction using four food-grade enzymes (AMG, Celluclast, Viscozyme, and Alcalase). The production levels of nitric oxide (NO) and pro-inflammatory cytokines, including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-${\alpha}$ and interleukin (IL)-$1{\beta}$ were measured by Griess assay and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, respectively. The levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), nuclear factor (NF)-${\kappa}B$, and mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) were measured by using western blot. The IR spectrums of the CPs were recorded using a fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) spectrometer. RESULTS: The polysaccharides from the Celluclast enzyme digest (CCP) showed the highest inhibition of NO production in LPS-stimulated RAW 264.7 cells ($IC_{50}$ value: $95.7{\mu}g/mL$). Also, CCP dose-dependently down-regulated the protein expression levels of iNOS and COX-2 as well as the production of inflammatory cytokines, including TNF-${\alpha}$ and IL-$1{\beta}$, compared to the only LPS-treated cells. In addition, CCP inhibited the activation of NF-${\kappa}B$ p50 and p65 and the phosphorylation of MAPKs, including p38 and extracellular signal-regulated kinase, in LPS-stimulated RAW 264.7 cells. Furthermore, FT-IR analysis showed that the FT-IR spectrum of CCP is similar to that of commercial fucoidan. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that CCP has anti-inflammatory activities and is a potential candidate for the formulation of a functional food ingredient or/and drug to treat inflammatory diseases.

Hydrological Studies on the flood and Risk of failure of the Hydraulic Structures(Ⅰ) -On the annual maximum series- (水利構造物의 破壞危險度와 設計洪水量에 관한 水文學的 硏究(Ⅰ) -年最高値 系列을 中心으로-)

  • Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Park, Myeong-Keun
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 1985
  • This studies were carried out to get characteristics of frequency distribution, probable flood flows according to the return periods, and the correlation between return periods and those length of records affect the Risk of failure in the annual maximum series of the main river systems in Korea. Especially, Risk analysis according to the levels were emphasized in relation to the design frequency factors for the different watersheds. Twelve watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, Yeong San and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Type 1 extremal distribution was newly confirmed as a good fitted distribution at selected watersheds along Geum and Yeong San river basin. Three parameter lognormal Seom Jin river basin. Consequently, characteristics of frequency distribution for the extreme value series could be changed in connection with the watershed location even the same river system judging from the results so far obtained by author. 2. Evaluation of parameters for Type 1 extremal and three parameter lognormal distribution based on the method of moment by using an electronic computer. 3. Formulas for the probable flood flows were derived for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 4. Equations for the risk to failure could be simplified as $\frac{n}{N+n}$ and $\frac{n}{T}$ under the condition of non-parametric method and the longer return period than the life of project, respectively. 5. Formulas for the return periods in relation to frequency factors were derived by the least square method for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 6. The more the length of records, the lesser the risk of failure, and it was appeared that the risk of failure was increasing in propotion to the length of return periods even same length of records. 7. Empirical formulas for design frequency factors were derived from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of Hydraulic structure in relation to the risk level. 8. Design frequency factor was appeared to be increased in propotion to the return periods while it is in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. 9. Derivation of design flood including the risk of failure could be accomplished by using of emprical formulas for the design frequency factor for each watershed.

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Comparison and Analysis of Observation Data of Rainfall Sensor for Vehicle and Rainfall Station (차량용 강우센서와 강우관측소 관측자료 비교분석)

  • Lee, Chung Dae;Lee, Byung Hyun;Cho, Hyeong Je;Kim, Byung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.783-791
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    • 2018
  • The biased estimation of low density rainfall network and radar rainfall has limited application to extreme rainfall in a small area. To improve this, more rainfall information needs to be produced. In this study, we analyzed the applicability of the vehicle rainfall sensor developed and used recently. The developed rainfall sensor was attached to the vehicle to observe the rainfall according to the movement of the vehicle. The analytical method used time series and average rainfall values for observations of rainfall sensors and nearby rainfall stations. The results show that the trend of observed values according to rainfall events shows a certain pattern. It is analyzed that it is caused by various causes such as the difference between the observation position of the rainfall sensor and the nearby rainfall station, the moving speed of the vehicle, and the rainfall observation method. This result shows the possibility of rainfall observation using a rainfall sensor for a vehicle, and it is possible to observe rainfall more precisely through experiments and improvement of rainfall sensors in various conditions in the future.

Exploratory Case Study for Key Successful Factors of Producy Service System (Product-Service System(PSS) 성공과 실패요인에 관한 탐색적 사례 연구)

  • Park, A-Rum;Jin, Dong-Su;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.255-277
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    • 2011
  • Product Service System(PSS), which is an integrated combination of product and service, provides new value to customer and makes companies sustainable as well. The objective of this paper draws Critical Successful Factors(CSF) of PSS through multiple case study. First, we review various concepts and types in PSS and Platform business literature currently available on this topic. Second, after investigating various cases with the characteristics of PSS and platform business, we select four cases of 'iPod of Apple', 'Kindle of Amazon', 'Zune of Microsoft', and 'e-book reader of Sony'. Then, the four cases are categorized as successful and failed cases according to criteria of case selection and PSS classification. We consider two methodologies for the case selection, i.e., 'Strategies for the Selection of Samples and Cases' proposed by Bent(2006) and the seven case selection procedures proposed by Jason and John(2008). For case selection, 'Stratified sample and Paradigmatic cases' is adopted as one of several options for sampling. Then, we use the seven case selection procedures such as 'typical', 'diverse', 'extreme', 'deviant', 'influential', 'most-similar', and 'mostdifferent' and among them only three procedures of 'diverse', 'most?similar', and 'most-different' are applied for the case selection. For PSS classification, the eight PSS types, suggested by Tukker(2004), of 'product related', 'advice and consulancy', 'product lease', 'product renting/sharing', 'product pooling', 'activity management', 'pay per service unit', 'functional result' are utilized. We categorize the four selected cases as a product oriented group because the cases not only sell a product, but also offer service needed during the use phase of the product. Then, we analyze the four cases by using cross-case pattern that Eisenhardt(1991) suggested. Eisenhardt(1991) argued that three processes are required for avoiding reaching premature or even false conclusion. The fist step includes selecting categories of dimensions and finding within-group similarities coupled with intergroup difference. In the second process, pairs of cases are selected and listed. The second step forces researchers to find the subtle similarities and differences between cases. The third process is to divide the data by data source. The result of cross-case pattern indicates that the similarities of iPod and Kindle as successful cases are convenient user interface, successful plarform strategy, and rich contents. The differences between the successful cases are that, wheares iPod has been recognized as the culture code, Kindle has implemented a low price as its main strategy. Meanwhile, the similarities of Zune and PRS series as failed cases are lack of sufficient applications and contents. The differences between the failed cases are that, wheares Zune adopted an undifferentiated strategy, PRS series conducted high-price strategy. From the analysis of the cases, we generate three hypotheses. The first hypothesis assumes that a successful PSS system requires convenient user interface. The second hypothesis assumes that a successful PSS system requires a reciprocal(win/win) business model. The third hypothesis assumes that a successful PSS system requires sufficient quantities of applications and contents. To verify the hypotheses, we uses the cross-matching (or pattern matching) methodology. The methodology matches three key words (user interface, reciprocal business model, contents) of the hypotheses to the previous papers related to PSS, digital contents, and Information System (IS). Finally, this paper suggests the three implications from analyzed results. A successful PSS system needs to provide differentiated value for customers such as convenient user interface, e.g., the simple design of iTunes (iPod) and the provision of connection to Kindle Store without any charge. A successful PSS system also requires a mutually benefitable business model as Apple and Amazon implement a policy that provides a reasonable proft sharing for third party. A successful PSS system requires sufficient quantities of applications and contents.

Calibration of Gauge Rainfall Considering Wind Effect (바람의 영향을 고려한 지상강우의 보정방법 연구)

  • Shin, Hyunseok;Noh, Huiseong;Kim, Yonsoo;Ly, Sidoeun;Kim, Duckhwan;Kim, Hungsoo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to obtain reliable rainfall data for runoff simulation and other hydrological analysis by the calibration of gauge rainfall. The calibrated gauge rainfall could be close to the actual value with rainfall on the ground. In order to analyze the wind effect of ground rain gauge, we selected the rain gauge sites with and without a windshield and standard rain gauge data from Chupungryeong weather station installed by standard of WMO. Simple linear regression model and artificial neural networks were used for the calibration of rainfalls, and we verified the reliability of the calibrated rainfalls through the runoff analysis using $Vflo^{TM}$. Rainfall calibrated by linear regression is higher amount of rainfall in 5%~18% than actual rainfall, and the wind remarkably affects the rainfall amount in the range of wind speed of 1.6~3.3m/s. It is hard to apply the linear regression model over 5.5m/s wind speed, because there is an insufficient wind speed data over 5.5m/s and there are also some outliers. On the other hand, rainfall calibrated by neural networks is estimated lower rainfall amount in 10~20% than actual rainfall. The results of the statistical evaluations are that neural networks model is more suitable for relatively big standard deviation and average rainfall. However, the linear regression model shows more suitable for extreme values. For getting more reliable rainfall data, we may need to select the suitable model for rainfall calibration. We expect the reliable hydrologic analysis could be performed by applying the calibration method suggested in this research.

Effect and uncertainty analysis according to input components and their applicable probability distributions of the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (Modified Surface Water Supply Index의 입력인자와 적용 확률분포에 따른 영향과 불확실성 분석)

  • Jang, Suk Hwan;Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Oh, Ji Hwan;Jo, Joon Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.475-488
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    • 2017
  • To simulate accurate drought, a drought index is needed to reflect the hydrometeorological phenomenon. Several studies have been conducted in Korea using the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (MSWSI) to simulate hydrological drought. This study analyzed the limitations of MSWSI and quantified the uncertainties of MSWSI. The influence of hydrometeorological components selected as the MSWSI components was analyzed. Although the previous MSWSI dealt with only one observation for each input component such as streamflow, ground water level, precipitation, and dam inflow, this study included dam storage level and dam release as suitable characteristics of the sub-basins, and used the areal-average precipitation obtained from several observations. From the MSWSI simulations of 2001 and 2006 drought events, MSWSI of this study successfully simulated drought because MSWSI of this study followed the trend of observing the hydrometeorological data and then the accuracy of the drought simulation results was affected by the selection of the input component on the MSWSI. The influence of the selection of the probability distributions to input components on the MSWSI was analyzed, including various criteria: the Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions for precipitation data; normal and Gumbel distributions for streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal and Gumbel distributions for dam inflow, storage level, and release discharge data; and 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. Then, the maximum 36 MSWSIs were calculated for each sub-basin, and the ranges of MSWSI differed significantly according to the selection of probability distributions. Therefore, it was confirmed that the MSWSI results may differ depending on the probability distribution. The uncertainty occurred due to the selection of MSWSI input components and the probability distributions were quantified using the maximum entropy. The uncertainty thus increased as the number of input components increased and the uncertainty of MSWSI also increased with the application of probability distributions of input components during the flood season.

Vulnerability Assessment of Cultivation Facility by Abnormal Weather of Climate Change (이상기후에 의한 재배시설의 취약성 평가)

  • Yoon, Seong-Tak;Lee, Yong-Ho;Hong, Sun-Hee;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Kang, Kee-Kyung;Na, Young-Eun;Oh, Young-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2013
  • Climate changes have caused not only changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, but also temperature and precipitation. The damages on agricultural production system will be increased by heavy rainfall and snow. In this study we assessed vulnerability of crop cultivation facility and animal husbandry facility by heavy rain in 232 agricultural districts. The climate data of 2000 years were used for vulnerability analysis on present status and the data derived from A1B scenario were used for the assessment in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2100, respectively. Vulnerability of local districts was evaluated by three indices such as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and each index was determined from selected alternative variables. Collected data were normalized and then multiplied by weight value that was elicited in delphi investigation. Jeonla-do and Gangwon-do showed higher climate exposures than the other provinces. The higher sensitivity to abnormal weather was observed from the regions that have large-scale cultivation facility complex compared to the other regions and vulnerability to abnormal weather also was higher at these provinces. In the projected estimation based on the SRES A1B, the vulnerability of controlled agricultural facility in Korea totally increased, especially was dramatic between 2000's and 2020 year.

Structure of Export Competition between Asian NIEs and Japan in the U.S. Import Market and Exchange Rate Effects (한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로)

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 1990
  • This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

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