• 제목/요약/키워드: Extreme Value analysis

검색결과 261건 처리시간 0.024초

Assessment of weather events impacts on forage production trend of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid

  • Moonju Kim;Kyungil Sung
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • 제65권4호
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    • pp.792-803
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to assess the impact of weather events on the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (Sorghum bicolor L.) cultivar production trend in the central inland region of Korea during the monsoon season, using time series analysis. The sorghum-sudangrass production data collected between 1988 and 2013 were compiled along with the production year's weather data. The growing degree days (GDD), accumulated rainfall, and sunshine duration were used to assess their impacts on forage production (kg/ha) trend. Conversely, GDD and accumulated rainfall had positive and negative effects on the trend of forage production, respectively. Meanwhile, weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoon were also collected based on weather warnings as weather events in the Korean monsoon season. The impact of weather events did not affect forage production, even with the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. Therefore, the trend of forage production for the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid was forecasted to slightly increase until 2045. The predicted forage production in 2045 will be 14,926 ± 6,657 kg/ha. It is likely that the damage by heavy rainfall and typhoons can be reduced through more frequent harvest against short-term single damage and a deeper extension of the root system against soil erosion and lodging. Therefore, in an environment that is rapidly changing due to climate change and extreme/abnormal weather, the cultivation of the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid would be advantageous in securing stable and robust forage production. Through this study, we propose the cultivation of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid as one of the alternative summer forage options to achieve stable forage production during the dynamically changing monsoon, in spite of rather lower nutrient value than that of maize (Zea mays L.).

Characterization of the wind-induced response of a 356 m high guyed mast based on field measurements

  • Zhe Wang;Muguang Liu;Lei Qiao;Hongyan Luo;Chunsheng Zhang;Zhuangning Xie
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.215-229
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    • 2024
  • Guyed mast structures exhibit characteristics such as high flexibility, low mass, small damping ratio, and large aspect ratio, leading to a complex wind-induced vibration response mechanism. This study analyzed the time- and frequency-domain characteristics of the wind-induced response of a guyed mast structure using measured acceleration response data obtained from the Shenzhen Meteorological Gradient Tower (SZMGT). Firstly, 734 sets of 1-hour acceleration samples measured from 0:00 October 1, 2021, to 0:00 November 1, 2021, were selected to study the vibration shapes of the mast and the characteristics of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Secondly, six sets of typical samples with different vibration intensities were further selected to explore the Gaussian property and modal parameter characteristics of the mast. Finally, the modal parameters of the SZMGT are identified and the identification results are verified by finite element analysis. The findings revealed that the guyed mast vibration shape exhibits remarkable diversity, which increases nonlinearly along the height in most cases and reaches a maximum at the top of the tower. Moreover, the GEV distribution characteristics of the 734 sets of samples are closer to the Weibull distribution. The probability distribution of the structural wind vibration response under strong wind is in good agreement with the Gaussian distribution. The structural response of the mast under wind loading exhibits multiple modes. As the structural response escalates, the first three orders of modal energy in the tower display a gradual increase in proportion.

Hybrid machine learning with HHO method for estimating ultimate shear strength of both rectangular and circular RC columns

  • Quang-Viet Vu;Van-Thanh Pham;Dai-Nhan Le;Zhengyi Kong;George Papazafeiropoulos;Viet-Ngoc Pham
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제52권2호
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    • pp.145-163
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    • 2024
  • This paper presents six novel hybrid machine learning (ML) models that combine support vector machines (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and categorical gradient boosting (CGB) with the Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO) algorithm. These models, namely HHO-SVM, HHO-DT, HHO-RF, HHO-GB, HHO-XGB, and HHO-CGB, are designed to predict the ultimate strength of both rectangular and circular reinforced concrete (RC) columns. The prediction models are established using a comprehensive database consisting of 325 experimental data for rectangular columns and 172 experimental data for circular columns. The ML model hyperparameters are optimized through a combination of cross-validation technique and the HHO. The performance of the hybrid ML models is evaluated and compared using various metrics, ultimately identifying the HHO-CGB model as the top-performing model for predicting the ultimate shear strength of both rectangular and circular RC columns. The mean R-value and mean a20-index are relatively high, reaching 0.991 and 0.959, respectively, while the mean absolute error and root mean square error are low (10.302 kN and 27.954 kN, respectively). Another comparison is conducted with four existing formulas to further validate the efficiency of the proposed HHO-CGB model. The Shapely Additive Explanations method is applied to analyze the contribution of each variable to the output within the HHO-CGB model, providing insights into the local and global influence of variables. The analysis reveals that the depth of the column, length of the column, and axial loading exert the most significant influence on the ultimate shear strength of RC columns. A user-friendly graphical interface tool is then developed based on the HHO-CGB to facilitate practical and cost-effective usage.

Analysis of Air Temperature Factors Related to Difference of Fruit Characteristics According to Cultivating Areas of Persimmon (Diospyros kaki Thunb.) (감 재배지 간 과실 품질 차이에 관계한 기온요인 분석)

  • Kim, Ho-Cheol;Jeon, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Tae-Choon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2008
  • To investigate main air temperature factors correlated to difference of fruit characteristics according to cultivating areas, fruit and air temperature characteristics of eight cultivating areas of 'Fuyu' persimmon were analyzed by principle components and multiple regression analysis. The first principal components extracted from 16 air temperature factors was annual mean temperature, mean temperature during October, annual mean minimum extreme temperature, mean temperature during growing period, and so forth. The second principal components was mean temperature during May and June and so forth. And cumulative contribution was 91.4%. The five of eight cultivating area had clearly the difference of main factors or the correlated direction among cultivating areas. In multiple regression analysis between the extracted main factors and fruit characteristics, fruit hight were highly correlated with mean temperature during growing period ($X_8$) and cumulative temperature ($X_6$), and the regression equation was $Y=150.55-5.375X_8+ 0.014X_6(r^2=0.843)$. Also this regression equation was affected by mean minimum temperature during growing period, cumulative temperature, and mean temperature during August. Fruit diameter was negatively correlated with mean temperature during growing period, flesh browning rate and Hunter a value of peel color were positively correlated with mean minimum temperature during growing period and annual minimum air temperature, respectively.

A Study on the Vibration Analysis of Spindle Housing with High Strength Aluminum of 2NC Head in Five-axis Cutting Machine Training (5축 절삭가공기 교육 중 2NC 헤드의 고강도 알루미늄을 적용한 스핀들 하우징의 극한 조건의 진동해석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji Woong
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 2022
  • Materials used for education are materials such as SM20C, Al6061, and acrylic. SM20C materials are carbon steel and are often used in certification tests and functional competitions, but are also widely used in industrial sites. The Al6061 material is said to be a material that has lower hardness and stronger flexibility than carbon steel, so it is a material that generates a lot of compositional selection of tools. If students are taught practical training using acrylic materials, vibration occurs due to excessive cutting in some parts and damage to the tool occurs. In this process, we examine to what extent the impact on the 2NC head, which is a five-axis equipment, can affect precision control. The weakest part of the five-axis equipment can be said to be the weakest part of the head that controls the AC axis. When the accuracy and cumulative tolerance of this part occur, the accuracy of all products decreases. Therefore, the core part of the 2NC head, the spindle housing, was carried out using an Al7075 T6 (Alcoa, USA) material. In the process of vibration and cutting applied to this material, the analysis was conducted to find out the value applied to the finite element analysis under extreme conditions. It is hoped that this analysis data will help students see and understand the structure of 5-axis machining rather than 5-axis cutting.

A Study on Stress and Deformation through Finite Element Analysis of 2NC Head Processing Controlling AC Axis during 5-Axis Cutting Machine Training in the 4th Industrial Revolution of Machine Tool System (공작기계의 4차 산업혁명에서 5축 절삭가공기 교육 중 AC축을 제어하는 2NC 헤드 가공상의 유한요소 해석으로 응력 및 변형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji Woong
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.327-332
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    • 2021
  • Materials used for education include SM20C, Al6061, and acrylic. SM20C materials are used a lot in certification tests and functional competitions as carbon steel, but they are also used in industrial sites. Al6061 is said to be a material that produces a lot of tools because it has lower hardness than carbon steel and is highly flexible. When practical guidance is given to students using acrylic materials, it is a material that causes vibration and tool damage due to excessive cutting. In this process, we examine how impact on the 5-axis equipment 2NC head can affect precision control. The weakest part of a five-axis equipment is the head that controls the AC axis. In the event of precision and cumulative tolerances in this area, the precision of all products is reduced. Thus, a key part of the 2NC head, the spindle housing was carried out using Al7075 T6 (U.S. Alcoasa) material and the entire body using FCD450 (spherical graphite cast iron). In the vibration and cutting process acting on these two materials, the analysis was carried out to determine the value of applying the force as a finite element analysis under extreme conditions. We hope that using these analytical data will help students see and understand the structure of 5-axis machining rather than 5-axis cutting.

Analysis of Optimal Index for Heat Morbidity (온열질환자 예측을 위한 최적의 지표 분석)

  • Sanghyuck Kim;Minju Song;Seokhwan Yun;Dongkun Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to select and predict optimal heatwave indices for describing and predicting heat-related illnesses. Regression analysis was conducted using Heat-related illness surveillance system data for a number of heat-related illnesses and meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration's Automatic Weather Station (AWS) for the period from 2021 to 2023. Daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily average Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), and daily maximum WBGT values were calculated and analyzed. The results indicated that among the four indicators, the daily maximum WBGT showed the highest suitability with an R2 value of 0.81 and RMSE of 0.98, with a threshold of 29.94 Celsius. During the entire analysis period, there were a total of 91 days exceeding this threshold, resulting in 339 cases of heat-related illnesses. Predictions of heat-related illness cases from 2021 to 2023 using the regression equation for daily maximum WBGT showed an accuracy with less than 10 cases of error annually, demonstrating a high level of precision. Through continuous research and refinement of data and analysis methods, it is anticipated that this approach could contribute to predicting and mitigating the impact of heatwaves.

A Study on the Extraction of Psychological Distance Embedded in Company's SNS Messages Using Machine Learning (머신 러닝을 활용한 회사 SNS 메시지에 내포된 심리적 거리 추출 연구)

  • Seongwon Lee;Jin Hyuk Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.23-38
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    • 2019
  • The social network service (SNS) is one of the important marketing channels, so many companies actively exploit SNSs by posting SNS messages with appropriate content and style for their customers. In this paper, we focused on the psychological distances embedded in the SNS messages and developed a method to measure the psychological distance in SNS message by mixing a traditional content analysis, natural language processing (NLP), and machine learning. Through a traditional content analysis by human coding, the psychological distance was extracted from the SNS message, and these coding results were used for input data for NLP and machine learning. With NLP, word embedding was executed and Bag of Word was created. The Support Vector Machine, one of machine learning techniques was performed to train and test the psychological distance in SNS message. As a result, sensitivity and precision of SVM prediction were significantly low because of the extreme skewness of dataset. We improved the performance of SVM by balancing the ratio of data by upsampling technique and using data coded with the same value in first content analysis. All performance index was more than 70%, which showed that psychological distance can be measured well.

Attention to the Internet: The Impact of Active Information Search on Investment Decisions (인터넷 주의효과: 능동적 정보 검색이 투자 결정에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Young Bong;Kwon, YoungOk;Cho, Wooje
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.117-129
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    • 2015
  • As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, a large volume of information is posted on the Internet with exponential growth every day. Accordingly, it is not unusual that investors in stock markets gather and compile firm-specific or market-wide information through online searches. Importantly, it becomes easier for investors to acquire value-relevant information for their investment decision with the help of powerful search tools on the Internet. Our study examines whether or not the Internet helps investors assess a firm's value better by using firm-level data over long periods spanning from January 2004 to December 2013. To this end, we construct weekly-based search volume for information technology (IT) services firms on the Internet. We limit our focus to IT firms since they are often equipped with intangible assets and relatively less recognized to the public which makes them hard-to measure. To obtain the information on those firms, investors are more likely to consult the Internet and use the information to appreciate the firms more accurately and eventually improve their investment decisions. Prior studies have shown that changes in search volumes can reflect the various aspects of the complex human behaviors and forecast near-term values of economic indicators, including automobile sales, unemployment claims, and etc. Moreover, search volume of firm names or stock ticker symbols has been used as a direct proxy of individual investors' attention in financial markets since, different from indirect measures such as turnover and extreme returns, they can reveal and quantify the interest of investors in an objective way. Following this line of research, this study aims to gauge whether the information retrieved from the Internet is value relevant in assessing a firm. We also use search volume for analysis but, distinguished from prior studies, explore its impact on return comovements with market returns. Given that a firm's returns tend to comove with market returns excessively when investors are less informed about the firm, we empirically test the value of information by examining the association between Internet searches and the extent to which a firm's returns comove. Our results show that Internet searches are negatively associated with return comovements as expected. When sample is split by the size of firms, the impact of Internet searches on return comovements is shown to be greater for large firms than small ones. Interestingly, we find a greater impact of Internet searches on return comovements for years from 2009 to 2013 than earlier years possibly due to more aggressive and informative exploit of Internet searches in obtaining financial information. We also complement our analyses by examining the association between return volatility and Internet search volumes. If Internet searches capture investors' attention associated with a change in firm-specific fundamentals such as new product releases, stock splits and so on, a firm's return volatility is likely to increase while search results can provide value-relevant information to investors. Our results suggest that in general, an increase in the volume of Internet searches is not positively associated with return volatility. However, we find a positive association between Internet searches and return volatility when the sample is limited to larger firms. A stronger result from larger firms implies that investors still pay less attention to the information obtained from Internet searches for small firms while the information is value relevant in assessing stock values. However, we do find any systematic differences in the magnitude of Internet searches impact on return volatility by time periods. Taken together, our results shed new light on the value of information searched from the Internet in assessing stock values. Given the informational role of the Internet in stock markets, we believe the results would guide investors to exploit Internet search tools to be better informed, as a result improving their investment decisions.

SWAT model calibration/validation using SWAT-CUP I: analysis for uncertainties of objective functions (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 SWAT 모형 검·보정 I: 목적함수에 따른 불확실성 분석)

  • Yu, Jisoo;Noh, Joonwoo;Cho, Younghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제53권1호
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to quantify the uncertainty that can be induced by the objective function when calibrating SWAT parameters using SWAT-CUP. SWAT model was constructed to estimate runoff in Naesenong-cheon, which is the one of mid-watershed in Nakdong River basin, and then automatic calibration was performed using eight objective functions (R2, bR2, NS, MNS, KGE, PBIAS, RSR, and SSQR). The optimum parameter sets obtained from each objective function showed different ranges, and thus the corresponding hydrologic characteristics of simulated data were also derived differently. This is because each objective function is sensitive to specific hydrologic signatures and evaluates model performance in an unique way. In other words, one objective function might be sensitive to the residual of the extreme value, so that well produce the peak value, whereas ignores the average or low flow residuals. Therefore, the hydrological similarity between the simulated and measured values was evaluated in order to select the optimum objective function. The hydrologic signatures, which include not only the magnitude, but also the ratio of the inclining and declining time in hydrograph, were defined to consider the timing of the flow occurrence, the response of watershed, and the increasing and decreasing trend. The results of evaluation were quantified by scoring method, and hence the optimal objective functions for SWAT parameter calibration were determined as MNS (342.48) and SSQR (346.45) with the highest total scores.