• Title/Summary/Keyword: Extreme Value analysis

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Intelligent bolt-jointed system integrating piezoelectric sensors with shape memory alloys

  • Park, Jong Keun;Park, Seunghee
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2016
  • This paper describes a smart structural system, which uses smart materials for real-time monitoring and active control of bolted-joints in steel structures. The goal of this research is to reduce the possibility of failure and the cost of maintenance of steel structures such as bridges, electricity pylons, steel lattice towers and so on. The concept of the smart structural system combines impedance based health monitoring techniques with a shape memory alloy (SMA) washer to restore the tension of the loosened bolt. The impedance-based structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques were used to detect loosened bolts in bolted-joints. By comparing electrical impedance signatures measured from a potentially damage structure with baseline data obtained from the pristine structure, the bolt loosening damage could be detected. An outlier analysis, using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, providing optimal decision boundaries, has been carried out for more systematic damage detection. Once the loosening damage was detected in the bolted joint, the external heater, which was bonded to the SMA washer, actuated the washer. Then, the heated SMA washer expanded axially and adjusted the bolt tension to restore the lost torque. Additionally, temperature variation due to the heater was compensated by applying the effective frequency shift (EFS) algorithm to improve the performance of the diagnostic results. An experimental study was conducted by integrating the piezoelectric material based structural health monitoring and the SMA-based active control function on a bolted joint, after which the performance of the smart 'self-monitoring and self-healing bolted joint system' was demonstrated.

Derivatio of Optimal Design Flood by L-Moments and LH-Moments(II) - On the method of LH-Moments - (L-모멘트 및 LH-모멘트 기법에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도(II)-LH-모멘트법을 중심으로)

  • 이순혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 1999
  • Derivatio of reasonable design floods was attempted by comparative analysis of design floods derived by Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution using methods of L-moments and LH-moments for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong. Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems, LH-coefficient of variation, LH-skewness and Lh-kurtosis were calcualted by KH-moment ration respectively. Paramenters were estimated by the Method of LH-Moments, Design floods obtained by Method of LH-Moments using different methods for plotting positionsi n GEV distribution and design floods were compared with those obtained using the Method of L-Moments by the Relative Mean Errors(RME) and Relative Absolute Errors(RAE). The results was found that design floods derived by the method of L-Moments and LH-Moments using Cunnane plotting position formula in the GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by methods of L-moments and LH-moments using the other formula for plotting positions from the viewpoint of Relative Mean Errors and Relative Absolute Errors. In viewpoint of the fact that hydrqulic structures including dams and levees are genrally using design floods with the return period of two hundred years or so, design floods derived by LH-Moments are seemed to be more reasonable than those of L-Moments in the GEV distribution.

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Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level (분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Song, Inhong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2013
  • The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

A Study on Estimation of Design Rainfall and Uncertainty Analysis Based on Bayesian GEV Distribution (Bayesian GEV분포를 이용한 확률강우량 추정 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.366-366
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    • 2012
  • 확률강우량은 하천설계, 수자원설계 및 계획을 위한 기초자료로 활용되며 최근 이상기후 및 기후변화로 인한 극치강우의 빈도 및 양적 증가로 인한 확률강우량 산정의 불확실성 분석에 대한 관심이 크게 증가하고 있다. 수문빈도 해석에 있어서 대부분 지역이 50년 이하의 수문자료가 이용되고 있으며 수문설계에서 요구되는 50년 이상의 확률강수량 추정시에는 상당한 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 자료연수에 따른 Sampling Error와 분포형의 매개변수의 불확실성을 고려한 해석모형을 구축하고자 한다. 빈도해석에서 매개변수를 추정하기 위해서는 일반적으로 모멘트법, 최우도법, 확률가중모멘트법이 이용되고 있으나 사용되는 분포형에 따라서 통계학적으로 불확실성 구간을 정량화하는 과정이 난해할 뿐만 아니라 극치 수문자료가 Thick-Tailed분포의 특성을 가짐에도 불구하고 신뢰구간 산정시 정규분포로 가정하는 등 기존 해석 방법에는 많은 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 매개변수의 불확실성 평가에 있어서 우수한 해석능력을 발휘하는 Bayesian기법을 도입하여 분포형의 매개변수를 추정하고 매개변수 추정과 관련된 불확실성을 평가하고자 한다. 이와 별개로 자료연한에 따른 Sampling Error를 추정하기 위해서 Bootstrapping 기반의 해석모형을 구축하고자 하며 최종적으로 빈도해석시에 나타나는 불확실성을 종합적으로 검토하였다. 빈도해석을 위한 확률분포형으로 GEV(generalized extreme value)분포를 이용하였으며 Gibbs 샘플러를 활용한 Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo 모의를 기본 해석모형으로 활용하였다.

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Regional Frequency Analysis for Rainfall Data using the Burr XII Distribution (Burr XII 분포형을 이용한 강우자료 지역빈도해석)

  • Seo, Jungho;Shin, Hongjoon;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.162-162
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    • 2017
  • 최근 우리나라는 전 지구적인 기후변화로 인하여 집중호우 및 돌발 홍수와 같은 극치 사상들이 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 이에 대한 분석을 위해 극치 분포를 이용한 수문통계적 특성에 대한 접근이 주로 이루어지고 있다. 이를 위해서는 충분한 수의 자료가 필요하나 우리나라 강우자료는 지점별로 자료 보유 년 수가 비교적 많지 않기 때문에, 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위하여 하나의 지역, 즉 주어진 지점을 포함하여 수문학적으로 동일한 조건을 만족하는 주변 지점의 자료를 모두 포함하여 빈도해석을 실시하는 지역빈도해석이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역빈도해석과 두 개의 형상매개변수를 포함하여 다양한 극치 수문통계특성을 나타낼 수 있다고 알려진 Burr XII 분포를 이용하여 우리나라 강우자료에 대한 그 적용성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 군집분석을 통한 강우지점의 지역화 과정을 거치고 분류된 지역을 L-moment ratio diagram에 도시하여, Burr XII 분포 영역 내 포함여부를 통해 Burr XII 분포의 적합도를 도시적으로 살펴보고, Hosking and Wallis (1997)이 제안한 적합성 척도($^{IST}$)를 통한 적합성 여부를 판별하였다. 또한 우리나라 강우자료에 비교적 적합하다고 알려진 분포인 generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, Gumbel 분포와의 비교를 위해, 전체 지역에 대하여 재현기간에 따른 상대편의 (relative bias)와 상대평균제곱근오차 (relative root mean square error)를 산정하여 Burr XII 분포형의 적용 가능성을 살펴보았다.

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A study on the optimal equation of the continuous wave spectrum

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kweon, Hyuck-Min;Jeong, Weon-Mu;Kim, Sang-Ik
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.1056-1063
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    • 2015
  • Waves can be expressed in terms of a spectrum; that is, the energy density distribution of a representative wave can be determined using statistical analysis. The JONSWAP, PM and BM spectra have been widely used for the specific target wave data set during storms. In this case, the extracted wave data are usually discontinuous and independent and cover a very short period of the total data-recording period. Previous studies on the continuous wave spectrum have focused on wave deformation in shallow water conditions and cannot be generalized for deep water conditions. In this study, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) function is proposed as a more-optimal function for the fitting of the continuous wave spectral shape based on long-term monitored point wave data in deep waters. The GEV function was found to be able to accurately reproduce the wave spectral shape, except for discontinuous waves of greater than 4 m in height.

A Nationwide Study on Optical Analysis for Expecting HEOs to Support Ambulances

  • Nakajima, Isao;Tsuda, Kazuhide;Juzoji, Hiroshi;Ta, Masuhisa;Nakajima, Atsushi
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2019
  • This paper deals with actual optical data from rural as well as urban areas in a nationwide study captured with Fisheye cameras. Simultaneously data was collected (of the receiving power density) from the mobile communications satellite N-STAR. The visibility of the satellite is easily determined by checking the value of the pixels in the binarized fisheye image of its position. The process of determining the visible satellite is automatically performed. Based on the analyses of the field data measured in Japan, we are expecting HEOs (Highly inclined Elliptical Orbiters) that would reduce blockage in the extreme northern region of Wakkanai City well as in the most crowded urban area, in Tokyo Ginza. In case of HEOs operation, the elevation angle will improve from 37 with N-STAR GEO to 75 degrees. HEOs could replace 5G/Ka-band or support in rural areas where broadband circuit is not available. We are proposing combination operations with HEOs and 5G/Ka-band to solve blockage problems, because HEOs can keep line-of-sight propagation with high elevation angle for long duration. In such operations, the communications profile on the vehicle based on actual optical data will be very useful to predict blockages and to select/switch a suitable circuit.

An advanced technique to predict time-dependent corrosion damage of onshore, offshore, nearshore and ship structures: Part I = generalisation

  • Kim, Do Kyun;Wong, Eileen Wee Chin;Cho, Nak-Kyun
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.657-666
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    • 2020
  • A reliable and cost-effective technique for the development of corrosion damage model is introduced to predict nonlinear time-dependent corrosion wastage of steel structures. A detailed explanation on how to propose a generalised mathematical formulation of the corrosion model is investigated in this paper (Part I), and verification and application of the developed method are covered in the following paper (Part II) by adopting corrosion data of a ship's ballast tank structure. In this study, probabilistic approaches including statistical analysis were applied to select the best fit probability density function (PDF) for the measured corrosion data. The sub-parameters of selected PDF, e.g., the largest extreme value distribution consisting of scale, and shape parameters, can be formulated as a function of time using curve fitting method. The proposed technique to formulate the refined time-dependent corrosion wastage model (TDCWM) will be useful for engineers as it provides an easy and accurate prediction of the 1) starting time of corrosion, 2) remaining life of the structure, and 3) nonlinear corrosion damage amount over time. In addition, the obtained outcome can be utilised for the development of simplified engineering software shown in Appendix B.

Estimation of storm events frequency analysis using copula function (Copula 함수를 이용한 호우사상의 빈도해석 산정)

  • An, Heejin;Lee, Moonyoung;Kim, Si Yeon;Jeon, Seol;Ahn, Youngmin;Jung, Donghwa;Park, Daeryong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.200-200
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구에서는 총 강우량과 강우강도을 고려한 이변수 분석으로 연최대 호우사상을 선별하고, 두 변수를 Copula 함수로 결합하여 최적의 모델조합을 찾는 확률호우사상 산정 방법론을 제시하였다. 국내 69개 관측소의 2020년까지의 관측 자료를 대상으로 1mm 이하의 강우는 제거한 뒤, IETD(Inter-Event Time Definition) 12시간을 기준으로 강우자료를 독립적인 호우사상으로 분리하였다. 호우사상의 여러 특성 중 양의 상관관계를 갖는 총 강우량과 강우강도를 변수로 선택해 이변수 지수분포에 대입하였고, 각 지점의 연최대 호우사상 시계열을 생성하였다. 2변수 지수분포의 매개변수는 전체 기간과 연도별로 나누어 추정해 본 결과 연도별 변동성이 큰 것을 확인해 연도별 추정 방식을 선택하였다. 연최대 강우사상 시계열의 총 강우량과 강우강도는 극한 강우에 적용하는 확률분포형 중 Lognarmal, Gamma, Gumbel, GEV(Generalized Extreme Value), GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution) 5가지를 사용하여 각각 CDF(Cumulative distribution Function) 값을 추정하였다. 계산된 CDF 값은 3가지 Copula 모형으로 결합해 joint CDF 값을 산출하였다. 총 75개의 모델조합 중 최적 모델을 찾기 위해 CVM(Cramer-von-Mises) 적합도 검정을 시행하였다. CVM의 통계량 Sn 값이 가장 작은 모델조합을 해당 지점의 최적 모델조합으로 선정하였다.

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A Study on the Development of Teaching-Learning Materials for Gradient Descent Method in College AI Mathematics Classes (대학수학 경사하강법(gradient descent method) 교수·학습자료 개발)

  • Lee, Sang-Gu;Nam, Yun;Lee, Jae Hwa
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.467-482
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we present our new teaching and learning materials on gradient descent method, which is widely used in artificial intelligence, available for college mathematics. These materials provide a good explanation of gradient descent method at the level of college calculus, and the presented SageMath code can help students to solve minimization problems easily. And we introduce how to solve least squares problem using gradient descent method. This study can be helpful to instructors who teach various college-level mathematics subjects such as calculus, engineering mathematics, numerical analysis, and applied mathematics.