• Title/Summary/Keyword: Extinction probability

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Availability of the metapopulation theory in research of biological invasion: Focusing on the invasion success (침입생물 연구에 대한 메타개체군 이론의 활용 가능성: 침입 성공을 중심으로)

  • Jaejun Song;Jinsol Hong;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.525-549
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    • 2022
  • The process of biological invasion is led by the dynamics of a population as a demographic and evolutionary unit. Spatial structure can affect the population dynamics, and it is worth being considered in research on biological invasion which is always accompanied by dispersal. Metapopulation theory is a representative approach to spatially structured populations, which is chiefly applied in the field of ecology and evolutionary biology despite the controversy about its definition. In this study, metapopulation was considered as a spatially structured population that includes at least one subpopulation with significant extinction probability. The early phase of the invasion is suitable to be analyzed in aspects of the metapopulation concept because the introduced population usually has a high extinction probability, and their ecological·genetic traits determining the invasiveness can be affected by the metapopulation structure. Although it is important in the explanation of the prediction of the invasion probability, the metapopulation concept is rarely used in ecological research about biological invasion in Korea. It is expected that applying the metapopulation theory can supply a more detailed investigation of the invasion process at the population level, which is relatively inadequate in Korea. In this study, a framework dividing the invasive metapopulation into long- and middle-distance scales by the relative distance of movement to the natural dispersal range of species is proposed to easily analyze the effect of a metapopulation in real cases. Increased understanding of the mechanisms underlying invasions and improved prediction of future invasion risk are expected with the metapopulation concept and this framework.

RELATIVISTIC INTERPLAY BETWEEN ADAPTIVE MOVEMENT AND MOBILITY ON BIODIVERSITY IN THE ROCK-PAPER-SCISSORS GAME

  • PARK, JUNPYO;JANG, BONGSOO
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.351-362
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    • 2020
  • Adaptive behaviors are one of ubiquitous features in evolutionary dynamics of populations, and certain adaptive behaviors can be witnessed by individuals' movements which are generally affected by local environments. In this paper, by revisiting the previous work, we investigate the sensitivity of species coexistence in the system of cyclic competition where species movement can be affected by local environments. By measuring the extinction probability through Monte-Carlo simulations, we find the relativistic effect of weights of local fitness and exchange rate for adaptive movement on species biodiversity which promotes species coexistence as the relativistic effect is intensified. In addition, by means of basins of initial conditions, we also found that adaptive movement can also affect species biodiversity with respect to the choice of initial conditions. The strong adaptive movement can eventually lead the coexistence as a globally stable state in the spatially extended system regardless of mobility.

A Study on Development of the Dual-thrust Flight Motor for Enhancing the Hit Probability (명중률 향상을 위한 이중추력형 비행모터 개발에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Hanjun;Kim, Eunmi;Kim, Namsik;Lee, Wonbok;Yang, Youngjun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2014
  • This paper describes the development of the dual-thrust flight motor for enhancing the hit probability of unguided rockets. We designed dual-thrust flight motor by shape modification of the double base propellant with high burning rate, and confirmed the dual-thrust performance by static firing tests. The test results showed the thrust ratio of about 1:7.6 between sustaining phase and boosting phase, and had a quietly normal dual-thrust characteristics. And the results showed that there was not the fire extinction phenomenon of propellant due to the pressure drop.

A Study on Analyzing the Authorship Tendency of the Authors in the Specific Organizations: Focusing on the H Medical University G Hospital (기관 소속 저자들의 저작경향 분석 - H 의과대학 부속병원 소속저자들을 대상으로 -)

  • Yi, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Gyu-Hwan;Jang, Bo-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.209-218
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    • 2009
  • This study analyzed the authorship tendency of the authors in the specific organizations. The SCI articles of the authors in H medical center, from 2000 to 2008, were extracted and indexed by the authors. The authorship tendency was analyzed on transience and continuance. As results of analysis, authorship tendency showed continuing tendency not transient tendency. Specifically, the publication rate by new authors was high as the average 39.17% but the publication rate by pre-existence authors, which consisted of the publication rate(16.83%) of reclosing authors and publication rate (44%) of the series author, was relatively higher as the average 60.83%. Also, the extinction author rate of new authors was relatively low as the average 28.2%. the non-flexible publication probability by the author in the specific year was very high as the average 76%. As a result, this study would be used as basic data for the research result management of the organization.

Stage Structure and Population Persistence of Cypripedium japonicum Thunb., a Rare and Endangered Plants (희귀 및 멸종위기식물인 광릉요강꽃의 개체군 구조 및 지속성)

  • Lee, Dong-hyoung;Kim, So-dam;Kim, Hwi-min;Moon, Ae-Ra;Kim, Sang-Yong;Park, Byung-Bae;Son, Sung-won
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.548-557
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    • 2021
  • Cypripedium japonicum Thunb. is an endemic plant in East Asia, distributed only in Korea, China, and Japan. At the global level, the IUCN Red List evaluates it as "Endangered Species (EN)," and at the national level in Korea, it is evaluated as "Critically Endangered Species (CR)." In this study, we investigated the characteristics of the age structure and the sustainability of the population based on the data obtained by demographic monitoring conducted for seven years in the natural habitat. C. japonicum habitats were observed in 7 regions of Korea (Pochoen, Gapyeong, Hwacheon, Chuncheon, Yeongdong, Muju, Gwangyang), and 4,356 individuals in 15 subpopulations were identified. The population size and structure differed from region to region, and artificial management had a very important effect on the size and structural change of the population. Population viability analysis (PVA) based on changes in the number of individuals of C. japonicum showed a very diverse tendency by region. And the probability of population extinction in the next 100 years was 0.00% for Pocheon, 10.90% for Gwangyang, 24.05% for Chuncheon, and 79.50% for Hwacheon. Since the above monitored study sites were located within the conservation shelters, which restricted access by humans, unauthorized collection of C. japonicum, the biggest threat to the species, was not reflected in the individual viability. So, the risk of extinction in Korea is expected to be significantly higher than that estimated in this study. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect population information in several regions that may represent various threats to determine the extinction risk of the C. japonicum population objectively. In the future, we should expand the demographic monitoring of the C. japonicum population known in Korea.

Change Prediction of Future Forestland Area by Transition of Land Use Types in South Korea (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적의 공간변화 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn;PARK, So-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2021
  • This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.