• 산업노동연구
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.197-220
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• 2017

본 논문은 비선형 해저드 모형을 이용해 산업별 수입침투율 상승이 개별 노동자의 일자리 중단 확률에 미친 영향을 실증적으로 분석한다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 수입침투율 상승은 일자리 안정성에 상당히 크고 통계적으로 유의한 부정적 영향을 미친다. 산업 총공급 대비 수입 비중이 1%p 증가하면 해당 산업에서 일하는 노동자들의 이직 확률은 4.5%p 증가한다. 둘째, 무역자유화의 효과는 수입과 수출 간에 비대칭적이다. 수입침투율의 경우와 달리 수출의존도가 일자리 안정성에 미치는 영향은 통계적으로 유의하지 않다. 셋째, 수입침투율이 일자리 안정성에 미치는 부정적 효과의 크기는 노동자 특성에 따라 다르다. 중소기업과 무노조 기업에 속한 노동자와 저학력 노동자가 더 큰 부정적 영향을 받는다.

• 경제분석
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.30-69
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• 2019

본 연구는 국제무역에 참여하고 있는 우리나라의 기업들을 대상으로 수출입이 기업의 노동수요에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 통계청의 기업활동조사 데이터를 이용하여 2006년부터 2014년까지 제조업 24개 업종에 속해 있는 기업들의 수출입이 노동수요에 미치는 영향을 시스템 GMM 방법을 사용하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 생산성이 높은 기업에서는 수출이 늘어나면서 생산 확대를 위한 노동수요가 창출되는 효과가 나타난 반면 생산성이 낮은 기업에서는 이러한 효과가 유의하게 나타나지 않았다. 그러나 기업이 오프쇼어링을 이용하여 국내업무를 해외로 재배치한 경우, 수출이 유발하는 노동수요 증가 효과가 축소되는 것으로 분석되었다. 한편, 수입증대는 기업의 노동수요를 감소시키는 것으로 나타나는 데, 이는 수입제품이 노동을 대체하는 효과 때문인 것으로 보인다. 반면 기업이 오프쇼어링을 이용하는 경우, 생산 효율성 증대로 수입의 노동수요 감소효과가 완화되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 수출입이 기업의 고용에 미치는 영향은 기업의 생산성 및 글로벌 아웃소싱 참여 여부에 따라 달라질 수 있음을 시사한다.

• 월간포장계
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• 통권151호
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• pp.106-121
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• 2005

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.3-49
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• 1990

본고(本稿)는 AIDS(Almost Ideal Demand System) 수요모형(需要模型)을 이용하여 한국(韓國) 등 아시아 신흥공업국(新興工業國)과 일본(日本)을 포함하는 아시아 5국(國)으로부터의 미국(美國)의 수입수요(輸入需要)를 분석함으로써 이들간의 대미수출경쟁관계(對美輸出競爭關係)를 분석하고 있는데, 특히 환율변동(換率變動)이 이들 5개국(個國)의 대미수출(對美輸出)에 미치는 효과를 중점적으로 분석하고 있다. 분석결과에 의하면, 아시아신흥공업 4국(國)은 일본(日本)과는 경쟁적인 반면 서로간에는, 홍콩과 싱가포르간의 경쟁적인 관계를 제외하면, 보완적인 관계를 유지하고 있다. 그리고 이들 아시아 5국(國)은 모두가 서구선진국그룹에 대해서는 경쟁적인 반면 미국(美國)의 국내재(國內財)와는 보완적인 관계를 보이는 것으로 관찰되었다. 한편 이러한 결과에 따라 환율효과(換率效果)를 분석해 보면, 한국(韓國)의 경우 엔화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)이 1% 인상되면 대미수출물량(對美輸出物量)을 일정 수준에 유지하고자 할 경우는 원화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)도 약 1% 정도는 인상되어야 하지만, 대미수출점유율(對美輸出占有率)을 일정 수준에 유지하려면 원화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)은 최악의 경우 약 3%까지도 인상되어야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같이 한국(韓國)은 대미수출시장점유율(對美輸出市場占有率)이나 수출물량(輸出物量)의 유지를 위해서, 원화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)이 여타 NICS통화환율(通貨換率)의 움직임보다도 오히려 엔화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)의 움직임을 보다 잘 반영할 수 있도록 함으로써 엔화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율인상(換率引上)에 따른 수출저상효과(輸出沮喪效果)를 상쇄시켜 나가야 할 것이라는 시사를 얻게 되었다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.44-51
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• 2019

This study analyzes the trade patterns that occur between Korea and ASEAN countries through air transport, one of Korea's trade transport methods. In order to understand the detailed characteristics of the air transport sector, the dependent variables were analyzed by dividing them into amount and weight. As a result, the amount of exports, imports, and trade was proportional to GDP per capita representing income level, and inversely proportional to GDP representing national economic power. In terms of air transport weight, exports, imports and trade were all proportional to GDP representing economic power and inversely proportional to GDP per capita representing income levels. In addition, the national area acted as a factor to reduce the trade volume, and the number of airports and inland countries did not show any significant results.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2014

This study focuses on apparel production and consumption trends in major Asian economies in order to understand a paradigm change in the Asian fashion industry. A comparison of trade among ASEAN, NICs, and developed countries shows the changes that have occurred in terms of production and consumption of fashion products before and after 2000 in Korea, Hong Kong, and China. The flow of imports and exports in the apparel industry was analyzed using UN trade statistics data. The results found a change of industry structures in Asian NICs and ASEAN countries. Garment production bases have moved to lower cost regions like China and ASEAN; in addition, NICs sent a part of their export business in the fashion industry to ASEAN countries. The Asian fashion industry has transformed from a production base for developed countries into a consumption market with the emergence of newly industrializing economies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.131-141
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• 2020

This study is designed to investigate the impact of China exchange rate policy on its trading partners by using a country multi-dataset GVAR model. Our model includes samples of 30 countries, six from high-income, six from middle-income and eighteen from low-income countries. This study used annual time series data over the period 1992 to 2017. We constructed currency misalignment index and it provided some interesting features about the currency undervaluation and overvaluation. The results of the currency misalignment shows that China's Renminbi is structurally more undervalued over the sample period as compared to other countries, and fluctuation in major currencies effects the global trade around the world. The overall empirical results of the GVAR model indicate that RMB undervaluation affects the trade pattern and macroeconomic performance of China's trading partners. Overall, China's exchange rate undervaluation has mixed effects on trading partner's GDP, exports and imports. The devaluation of China's RMB efficiently stimulated China's exports and reduced imports. While, in some countries, this effect is reverse, the RMB undervaluation increases the GDP of partner countries and also increases their exports to China. The results confirm the strong and leading role of the Chinese Renminbi in the global trade.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.49-65
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• 2010

We have analyzed the trade effect of Korea-EU FTA on the Korean fishery sector, after reviewing the trade pattern and the tariff barriers of fishery sector between Korea-EU. For the trade effects, we have categorized into three cases: 1) the complete tariff elimination of all items, 2) the half tariff reduction on top ten valued items, with complete tariff elimination of other items, and 3) the complete tariff elimination, except unbinding top three valued items. The effect of the complete tariff elimination of all items implies the effect of the full achievement of FTA. For other two cases, these effects imply the effects of the transitional phenomenon of FTA since the complete tariff elimination happens gradually over more than ten years. For the complete elimination of tariff, we found that imports are increased by 1.1 billion dollars which is 12.9% increase in average imports during years 2006-2009. Also, exports are increased by 1.3 billion dollars which is 14.5% increase in average exports during same years.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제49권
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• pp.545-566
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• 2011

This paper study on the effect of the removal or reduction of the tariff on Korea-India trade by CEPA between Korea & India and then examines the effects of increased exports & imports to Korea on India. Despite the analysis is based on data over a short period of time, this paper shows that CEPA between Korea & India has substantially increased Korean exports(42.7%) and imports(37%) to India in 2010. It is also shown that CEPA between Korea & India has had a considerable impact on market. As a result can be summarized as follows. The potential fields of expanding the trade between the two countries due to the tariff concessions of the removal or reduction. Consequently the effect of the removal or reduction of tariff will be low our expectation but CEPA between Korea & India would have a positive effect on Korea's exports to India in the long term. This paper has examined the impact of CEPA between Korea & India on general economy. It needs a further study to estimate trade diversion effect of CEPA and to find out the impacts on specific industry.