• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exponential smoothing methods

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Short-Term Load Forecast for Near Consecutive Holidays Having The Mixed Load Profile Characteristics of Weekdays and Weekends (평일과 주말의 특성이 결합된 연휴전 평일에 대한 단기 전력수요예측)

  • Park, Jeong-Do;Song, Kyung-Bin;Lim, Hyeong-Woo;Park, Hae-Soo
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.61 no.12
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    • pp.1765-1773
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    • 2012
  • The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays' load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year's day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.

The Study for Software Future Forecasting Failure Time Using Time Series Analysis. (시계열 분석을 이용한 소프트웨어 미래 고장 시간 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2011
  • Software failure time presented in the literature exhibit either constant monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing, For data analysis of software reliability model, data scale tools of trend analysis are developed. The methods of trend analysis are arithmetic mean test and Laplace trend test. Trend analysis only offer information of outline content. In this paper, we discuss forecasting failure time case of failure time censoring. In this study, time series analys is used in the simple moving average and weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing method for predict the future failure times, Empirical analysis used interval failure time for the prediction of this model. Model selection using the mean square error was presented for effective comparison.

Simulation and Experimental Studies of Real-Time Motion Compensation Using an Articulated Robotic Manipulator System

  • Lee, Minsik;Cho, Min-Seok;Lee, Hoyeon;Chung, Hyekyun;Cho, Byungchul
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to install a system that compensated for the respiration motion using an articulated robotic manipulator couch which enables a wide range of motions that a Stewart platform cannot provide and to evaluate the performance of various prediction algorithms including proposed algorithm. For that purpose, we built a miniature couch tracking system comprising an articulated robotic manipulator, 3D optical tracking system, a phantom that mimicked respiratory motion, and control software. We performed simulations and experiments using respiratory data of 12 patients to investigate the feasibility of the system and various prediction algorithms, namely linear extrapolation (LE) and double exponential smoothing (ES2) with averaging methods. We confirmed that prediction algorithms worked well during simulation and experiment, with the ES2-averaging algorithm showing the best results. The simulation study showed 43% average and 49% maximum improvement ratios with the ES2-averaging algorithm, and the experimental study with the $QUASAR^{TM}$ phantom showed 51% average and 56% maximum improvement ratios with this algorithm. Our results suggest that the articulated robotic manipulator couch system with the ES2-averaging prediction algorithm can be widely used in the field of radiation therapy, providing a highly efficient and utilizable technology that can enhance the therapeutic effect and improve safety through a noninvasive approach.

Prediction of Power Consumption for Improving QoS in an Energy Saving Server Cluster Environment (에너지 절감형 서버 클러스터 환경에서 QoS 향상을 위한 소비 전력 예측)

  • Cho, Sungchoul;Kang, Sanha;Moon, Hungsik;Kwak, Hukeun;Chung, Kyusik
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2015
  • In an energy saving server cluster environment, the power modes of servers are controlled according to load situation, that is, by making ON only minimum number of servers needed to handle current load while making the other servers OFF. This algorithm works well under normal circumstances, but does not guarantee QoS under abnormal circumstances such as sharply rising or falling loads. This is because the number of ON servers cannot be increased immediately due to the time delay for servers to turn ON from OFF. In this paper, we propose a new prediction algorithm of the power consumption for improving QoS under not only normal but also abnormal circumstances. The proposed prediction algorithm consists of two parts: prediction based on the conventional time series analysis and prediction adjustment based on trend analysis. We performed experiments using 15 PCs and compared performance for 4 types of conventional time series based prediction methods and their modified methods with our prediction algorithm. Experimental results show that Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjusted (ESTA) and its modified ESTA (MESTA) proposed in this paper are outperforming among 4 types of prediction methods in terms of normalized QoS and number of good reponses per power consumed, and QoS of MESTA proposed in this paper is 7.5% and 3.3% better than that of conventional ESTA for artificial load pattern and real load pattern, respectively.

A Case Study on Crime Prediction using Time Series Models (시계열 모형을 이용한 범죄예측 사례연구)

  • Joo, Il-Yeob
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.30
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    • pp.139-169
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to contribute to establishing the scientific policing policies through deriving the time series models that can forecast the occurrence of major crimes such as murder, robbery, burglary, rape, violence and identifying the occurrence of major crimes using the models. In order to achieve this purpose, there were performed the statistical methods such as Generation of Time Series Model(C) for identifying the forecasting models of time series, Generation of Time Series Model(C) and Sequential Chart of Time Series(N) for identifying the accuracy of the forecasting models of time series on the monthly incidence of major crimes from 2002 to 2010 using IBM PASW(SPSS) 19.0. The following is the result of the study. First, murder, robbery, rape, theft and violence crime's forecasting models of time series are Simple Season, Winters Multiplicative, ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1), ARIMA(1,1,0 )(0,1,1) and Simple Season. Second, it is possible to forecast the short-term's occurrence of major crimes such as murder, robbery, burglary, rape, violence using the forecasting models of time series. Based on the result of this study, we have to suggest various forecasting models of time series continuously, and have to concern the long-term forecasting models of time series which is based on the quarterly, yearly incidence of major crimes.

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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.