• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exponential smoothing

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A Case Study on Crime Prediction using Time Series Models (시계열 모형을 이용한 범죄예측 사례연구)

  • Joo, Il-Yeob
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.30
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    • pp.139-169
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to contribute to establishing the scientific policing policies through deriving the time series models that can forecast the occurrence of major crimes such as murder, robbery, burglary, rape, violence and identifying the occurrence of major crimes using the models. In order to achieve this purpose, there were performed the statistical methods such as Generation of Time Series Model(C) for identifying the forecasting models of time series, Generation of Time Series Model(C) and Sequential Chart of Time Series(N) for identifying the accuracy of the forecasting models of time series on the monthly incidence of major crimes from 2002 to 2010 using IBM PASW(SPSS) 19.0. The following is the result of the study. First, murder, robbery, rape, theft and violence crime's forecasting models of time series are Simple Season, Winters Multiplicative, ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1), ARIMA(1,1,0 )(0,1,1) and Simple Season. Second, it is possible to forecast the short-term's occurrence of major crimes such as murder, robbery, burglary, rape, violence using the forecasting models of time series. Based on the result of this study, we have to suggest various forecasting models of time series continuously, and have to concern the long-term forecasting models of time series which is based on the quarterly, yearly incidence of major crimes.

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The Development of Adjustment Coefficients for Linear Classifications in the Korean Holstein Dairy Cattle (국내 홀스타인젖소의 선형심사에 대한 보정계수 개발)

  • Song, C.E.;Sang, B.C.;Do, C.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2002
  • The environmental effects were studied to estimate age and lactation stage adjustment coefficients in the primary linear traits of Holstein dairy cattle in Korea. Calving year month, classifier, age-month at classification and lactation stage were the environmental factors which significantly affected the most of linear traits at the level of 0.01. F values of Stature, strength, body depth, thurl with and rear leg side view were relatively higher in the effects of age-month, and dairy form, rear udder height, rear udder width, and udder cleft had relatively higher F values in the effects of lactation stage. Udder depth were affected highly by both age-month and lactation stage. Through the least square means of traits and the interpolation and smoothing obtained by the regression analysis of log and exponential transformed adjustment coefficients, age-month and lactation stage coefficients were estimated, and applied to real data to check the variation in the age-month and lactation stage effects. The estimated mean squares showed that the variation in all the linear traits significantly were decreased for the adjusted factors without the significant changes of variation in calving year month and classifier. That udder depth adjusted for both the age-month and lactation stage resulted in the decreases of variation in the both effects.

A research for forecasting of rate of university quota according to the reducing of young generation (학령인구 감소에 따른 지역별 대입지원자 감소에 대한 예측연구)

  • Kim, Ki Whan;Lee, Chang Ho;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1175-1188
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    • 2015
  • The Ministry of Education of Korea announced the university structural reform plans which reduces 160,000 of the university entrance quota during 10 years from January 2014. Because the reduction plans of entrance quota influence regional economy as well as students and universities, naive evidence of the Ministry of Education of Korea is disappointed. In this research, we forecast the total number of the university entrance exam candidate by 2032 including not only third grade high school students but also repeaters according to the 16 metropolises and provinces in Korea. We also forecast the regional university recruiting rate using the forecasts of the total number of the university entrance exam candidates. However, we can not make more realistic results because we can not apply the inter-regional movement of students to the forecast. In order to handle this limitation, we first estimated the rank of the whole 7,277 departments of all universities in Korea and assigned the quotas according to the estimated rank for each departments and then we calculated the local university recruiting rate. The estimated the university recruiting rates of 16 metropolises and provinces can provide more noticeable results of characteristics and problems than that of nationwide.

Prediction of Power Consumption for Improving QoS in an Energy Saving Server Cluster Environment (에너지 절감형 서버 클러스터 환경에서 QoS 향상을 위한 소비 전력 예측)

  • Cho, Sungchoul;Kang, Sanha;Moon, Hungsik;Kwak, Hukeun;Chung, Kyusik
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2015
  • In an energy saving server cluster environment, the power modes of servers are controlled according to load situation, that is, by making ON only minimum number of servers needed to handle current load while making the other servers OFF. This algorithm works well under normal circumstances, but does not guarantee QoS under abnormal circumstances such as sharply rising or falling loads. This is because the number of ON servers cannot be increased immediately due to the time delay for servers to turn ON from OFF. In this paper, we propose a new prediction algorithm of the power consumption for improving QoS under not only normal but also abnormal circumstances. The proposed prediction algorithm consists of two parts: prediction based on the conventional time series analysis and prediction adjustment based on trend analysis. We performed experiments using 15 PCs and compared performance for 4 types of conventional time series based prediction methods and their modified methods with our prediction algorithm. Experimental results show that Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjusted (ESTA) and its modified ESTA (MESTA) proposed in this paper are outperforming among 4 types of prediction methods in terms of normalized QoS and number of good reponses per power consumed, and QoS of MESTA proposed in this paper is 7.5% and 3.3% better than that of conventional ESTA for artificial load pattern and real load pattern, respectively.

A Study on Forecasting Industrial Land Considering Leading Economic Variable Using ARIMA-X (선행경제변수를 고려한 산업용지 수요예측 방법 연구)

  • Byun, Tae-Geun;Jang, Cheol-Soon;Kim, Seok-Yun;Choi, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.214-223
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present a new industrial land demand prediction method that can consider external economic factors. The analysis model used ARIMA-X, which can consider exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are composed of macroeconomic variable, Business Survey Index, and Composite Economic Index variables to reflect the economic and industrial structure. And, among the exogenous variables, only variables that precede the supply of industrial land are used for prediction. Variables with precedence in the supply of industrial land were found to be import, private and government consumption expenditure, total capital formation, economic sentiment index, producer's shipment index, machinery for domestic demand and composite leading index. As a result of estimating the ARIMA-X model using these variables, the ARIMA-X(1,1,0) model including only the import was found to be statistically significant. The industrial land demand forecast predicted the industrial land from 2021 to 2030 by reflecting the scenario of change in import. As a result, the future demand for industrial land was predicted to increase by 1.91% annually to 1,030.79 km2. As a result of comparing these results with the existing exponential smoothing method, the results of this study were found to be more suitable than the existing models. It is expected to b available as a new industrial land forecasting model.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.