• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expert Estimation

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An Expert System for Estimation of Fatigue Properties of Metallic Materials using Simple Tensile Data (금속재료의 피로특성 추정을 위한 전문가시스템)

  • Jeon, Woo-Soo;Song, Ji-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2003
  • An expert system for estimation of fatigue properties from simple tensile data of material is developed, considering nearly all important estimation methods proposed so far, i.e., 7 estimation methods. The expert system is developed using an expert system shell, UNIK, and the knowledge base is constructed with production rules and frames. Forward chaining is employed as a reasoning method. The expert system has three major functions including the function to update the knowledge base. The performance of the expert system is tested using the 54 ${\sigma}-N$ curves consisting of 381 ${\sigma}-N$ data points obtained for 22 materials. It is found that the expert system developed has excellent performance especially for steel materials, and reasonably good for titanium alloys.

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A Method for Estimation of Fatigue Properties from Hardness of Materials through Construction of Expert System (전문가시스템 구축을 통한 경도로부터의 재료의 피로특성 추정방법)

  • Jeon, Woo-Soo;Song, Ji-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.114-119
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    • 2001
  • An expert system for estimation of fatigue properties from simple tensile data of material is developed, considering nearly all important estimation methods proposed so far, i.e., 7 estimation methods. The expert system is developed to utilize for the case of only hardness data available. The knowledge base is constructed with production rules and frames using an expert system shell, UNIK. Forward chaining is employed as a reasoning method. The expert system has three major functions including the function to update the knowledge base. The performance of the expert system is tested using the 54 $\varepsilon$-N curves consisting of 381 $\varepsilon$-N data points obtained for 22 materials. It is found that the expert system developed has excellent performance especially for steel materials, and reasonably good for aluminum alloys.

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Research on the weld quality estimation system using fuzzy expert system (퍼지 전문가 시스템을 활용한 용접 품질 예측 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • 박주용;강병윤;박현철
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.36-43
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    • 1997
  • Weld bead shape is an important measure for evaluation of weld quality. Many welding parameters have influence on the weld bead shape. The quantitative relationship between welding parameters and bead shape, however, is not determined yet because of their high complexity and many unknown factors. Fuzzy expert system is an advanced expert system which uses fuzzy rules and approximate reasoning. It is a vert useful tool for welding technology because is can process rationally the uncertain and inexact information such as the welding information. In this paper, the empirical and the qualitative relationship between welding parameters and bead shape are analyzed and represented by fuzzy rules. They are converted to the quantitative relationship by use of approximate reasoning of fuzzy expert system. Weld bead shape is estimated from the welding parameters using fuzzy expert system. The result of comparison between measured values of weld bead by welding experiments and the estimates values by fuzzy expert system shows a good consistancy.

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An Investigation on Problems in the Procedures of Exper t Opinion and Estimation of Future Medical Expenditure of Medical Institutions (의료기관 내부의 신체감정절차와 향후치료비 산정에 대한 문제점의 고찰)

  • Kang, John;Kim, Pill S.;Moon, Sang Hyuk
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.115-139
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    • 2012
  • Civil proceedings, surveyed results and medical expenses that are evidenced by expert witness are just one of the methods of proof. Since a judge makes decision by synthesizing all evidences on a concerned case, thus the judgement would be different from that of expert witness. It is not rational for medical institutions, of which priorities are medical treatment, to give priority to disability decision. However, despite of its importance, medical institutions less recognize about the necessity of procedural stability and predictability in expert valuation. It is necessary to identify actual problems and investigate rational alternatives to acquire fairness in valuation procedures and accuracy in calculating future medical expenses. Therefore, this research explores the problems and realities of evaluation process in medical treatments, and then discuss the alternatives of written expert opinion and estimation of future medical expenses.

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Development of an Expert System to Improve the Methods of Parameter Estimation (매개변수 추정방법의 개선을 위한 전문가 시스템의 개발)

  • Lee, Beom-Hui;Lee, Gil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.641-655
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    • 1998
  • The methods of development and application of an expert system are suggested to solve more efficiently the problems of water resources and quality induced by the rapid urbanization. Major parameters of the water quantity and quality of urban areas are selected their characteristics are presented by the sensitivity analysis. The rules to decide the parameters effectively are proposed based on these characteristics. the ESPE(Expert System for Parameter Estimation), an expert system based on the 'facts' and 'rules', is developed using the CLIPS 6.0 and applied to the basin of the An-Yang stream. The results of estimating t도 parameters of water quantity show a high applicability, but those of water quality imply the necessity of improving the present methods due to both the complexity of estimation processes and the lack of decision rules.

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Intelligent Navigation Safety Information System using Blackboard (블랙보드를 이용한 지능형 항행 안전 정보 시스템)

  • Kim, Do-Yeon;Yi, Mi-Ra
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.307-316
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    • 2011
  • The majority of maritime accidents happened by human factor. For that reason, navigation experts want to an intelligent support system for navigation safety, without officer involvement. The expert system which is one of artificial intelligence skills for navigation support is an important tool that a machine can substitute for an expert through the design of a knowledge base and inference engine using the experience or knowledge of an expert. Further, in the real world, a complex situation requires synthetic estimation with the input of experts in various fields for the correct estimation of the situation, not any one expert. In particular, synthetic estimation is more important for navigation situations than in other cases, because of diverse potential threats. This paper presents the method of knowledge fusion pertaining to navigation safety knowledge from various expert systems, using a blackboard system. Then we will show the validity of the method via a design and implementation of test system effort.

A Study for 8 Constitution Medicine Diagnosis Expert System Development(2) (8체질 진단을 위한 전문가 시스템 개발에 관한 연구(2))

  • Shin, Yong-Sup;Park, Young-Bae;Park, Young-Jae;Kim, Min-Yong;Lee, Sang-Chul;Oh, Hwan-Sup
    • The Journal of the Society of Korean Medicine Diagnostics
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.107-126
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    • 2008
  • Background : There was seldom study about method that diagnose 8 Constitution beside method of pulse diagnosis in 8 Constitution Medicine. Objectives : This study is to make out 8 Constitution Medicine Diagnosis Expert System Development used CBR(Case based Reasoning). Methods : First, at case base construction process we constructed case base for CBR embodiment because gathering 925 cases all to patient who constitution is verified, and second, at study model establishment process superior expert system development by purpose CBR of reasoning process dividing fundamental type CBR that spend basis data value and expert type CBR that reflect weight in basis data value accordin I II III to advice expert opinion, and third, system embodiment process explained about way to give process and weight that diagnose constitution through Nearest Neighbor Method sampling process of CBR techniques, and fourth, at system estimation process we selected superior CBR model because comparing and estimate the diagnosis rate of expert system with fundamental type system (GECBR) model and expert type I II III CBR system (AVCBR, AACBR, AGCBR) model that reflect expert opinion in fundamental type system. GECBR and AGCBR chose on superior study model. Through such 4 study process, we developed 8 constitution diagnosis expert system lastly. Results : 1. When we select GECBR that is fundamental type by reasoning system, diagnosis rate 78.91% of 8 constitution diagnosis expert system is expected, and the constitution diagnosis rate Hepatonia 90.4%, Cholecystonia 63.0%, Pancreotonia 91.1%, Gastrotonia 0%, Pulmotonia 71.2%, Colonotonia 74.4%, Renotonia 37.5%, Vesicotonia 67.1% expect. 2. When we select AGCBR that is expert type III by reasoning system, diagnosis rate 77.51% of 8 constitution diagnosis expert system is expected, and the constitution diagnosis rate Hepatonia 93.4%, Cholecystonia 58.5%, Pancreotonia 91.1%, Gastrotonia 0%, Pulmotonia 73.1%, Colonotonia 64.4%, Renotonia 41.7%, Vesicotonia 72.2% expect. Conclusion : Based on this study, 8 constitution diagnosis expert system may give help to diagnose 8 constitution, and it is going to utilize as objective estimation tool of 8 constitution diagnosis, and further study for 8 Constitution Medicine Diagnosis Expert System Development used CBR(Case based Reasoning) is needed to supplement this study.

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A Study for 8 Constitution Medicine Diagnosis Expert System Development (8체질의학을 위한 진단 전문가 시스템 개발 및 고찰)

  • Shin, Yong-Sup;Park, Young-Bae;Park, Young-Jae;Kim, Min-Yong;Oh, Hwan-Sup
    • The Journal of the Society of Korean Medicine Diagnostics
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.142-184
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    • 2008
  • Background: There was seldom study about method that diagnose 8 Constitution beside method of pulse diagnosis in 8 Constitution Medicine. Objectives: This study is to make out 8 Constitution Medicine Diagnosis Expert System Development used CBR(Case based Reasoning). Methods: First, at case base construction process we constructed case base for CBR embodiment because gathering 925 cases all to patient who constitution is verified, and second, at study model establishment process superior expert system development by purpose CBR of reasoning process dividing fundamental type CBR that spend basis data value and expert type I II III CBR that reflect weight in basis data value according to advice expert opinion, and third, system embodiment process explained about way to give process and weight that diagnose constitution through Nearest Neighbor Method sampling process of CBR techniques, and fourth, at system estimation process we selected superior CBR model because comparing and estimate the diagnosis rate of expert system with fundamental type system (GECBR) model and expert type I II III CBR system (AVCBR, AACBR, AGCBR) model that reflect expert opinion in fundamental type system. GECBR and AGCBR chose on superior study model. Through such 4 study process, we developed 8 constitution diagnosis expert system lastly. Results: 1. When we select GECBR that is fundamental type by reasoning system, diagnosis rate 78.91% of 8 constitution diagnosis expert system is expected, and the constitution diagnosis rate Hepatonia 90.4%, Cholecystonia 63.0%, Pancreotonia 91.1%, Gastrotonia 0%, Pulmotonia 71.2%, Colonotonia 74.4%, Renotonia 37.5%, Vesicotonia 67.1% expect. 2. When we select AGCBR that is expert type III by reasoning system, diagnosis rate 77.51% of 8 constitution diagnosis expert system is expected, and the constitution diagnosis rate Hepatonia 93.4%, Cholecystonia 58.5%, Pancreotonia 91.1%, Gastrotonia 0%, Pulmotonia 73.1%, Colonotonia 64.4%, Renotonia 41.7%, Vesicotonia 72.2% expect. Conclusion: Based on this study, 8 constitution diagnosis expert system may give help to diagnose 8 constitution, and it is going to utilize as objective estimation tool of 8 constitution diagnosis, and further study for 8 Constitution Medicine Diagnosis Expert System Development used CBR(Case based Reasoning) is needed to supplement this study.

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Probabilistic assessment on the basis of interval data

  • Thacker, Ben H.;Huyse, Luc J.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.331-345
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    • 2007
  • Uncertainties enter a complex analysis from a variety of sources: variability, lack of data, human errors, model simplification and lack of understanding of the underlying physics. However, for many important engineering applications insufficient data are available to justify the choice of a particular probability density function (PDF). Sometimes the only data available are in the form of interval estimates which represent, often conflicting, expert opinion. In this paper we demonstrate that Bayesian estimation techniques can successfully be used in applications where only vague interval measurements are available. The proposed approach is intended to fit within a probabilistic framework, which is established and widely accepted. To circumvent the problem of selecting a specific PDF when only little or vague data are available, a hierarchical model of a continuous family of PDF's is used. The classical Bayesian estimation methods are expanded to make use of imprecise interval data. Each of the expert opinions (interval data) are interpreted as random interval samples of a parent PDF. Consequently, a partial conflict between experts is automatically accounted for through the likelihood function.

An Expert System for Short Term Load Forecasting by Fuzzy Decision (Fuzzy Decision을 사용한 단기부하예측 전문가 시스템)

  • Park, Young-Il;Park, Jong-Keun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1988.11a
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    • pp.118-121
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    • 1988
  • Load forecasting is an important issue as for the economic dispatch and there have been many researches which are classfied into two classes, time series method and factor analysis method. But the former is not adaptive for a sudden change of a correlated factor and the latter is not inefficient as the factor estimation is not easy. To make matters worse, both of them are not good for the estimation of special days. It is because the load forecasting is not a problem modeled precisely in mathematics, but a problem requires experience and knowledge those can solve it case by case. In this viewpoint, an expert system is proposed which can use complicated experience of an expert by use of fuzzy decision.

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