• 제목/요약/키워드: Expected utility theory

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eUCP 11조의 잠재적 하자의 규명과 합리적 개정방안의 모색 (A Study on the Inherent Defects in the eUCP Article 11 & Implication for the Revision)

  • 김기선
    • 무역상무연구
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    • 제35권
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    • pp.41-69
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    • 2007
  • This study analyzes some important implications for the forthcoming revision of eUCP through the methodology of expected utility maximization theory. The overall results are as follows. First, beneficiary with an initial wealth has a risk-averse utility in traditional letter of credit transaction, and he would be more risk-averse in eUCP transaction. Secondly, the beneficiary who has risk-averse utility will pay for the risk premium to reduce the risk of corruption of an electronic record by means of cost of loss reduction activities. Thirdly, the cost of loss reduction activities is represented by a convex cost function, Fourthly, a risk averse beneficiary pursues loss reducing activities to the point where the expected marginal product of loss reduction is less than its marginal cost. Fifthly, a more risk-averse eUCP beneficiary will always select a higher level of loss reduction as long as the effectiveness of loss reduction is certain. Sixthly, when the effectiveness of loss reduction is uncertain, the more risk-averse eUCP beneficiary does not necessarily choose a higher level of loss reducing activities. Finally, it would be more reasonable that eUCP Article 11 should protect eUCP beneficiary who pursues a higher level of loss reducing activities.

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소비자 효용을 고려한 실시간 요금제의 Load Serving Entity 수익 설계 방안 (Evaluation of a Load Serving Entity Revenue in the Real Time Pricing Considering Customer's Utility)

  • 노준우;김문겸;김도한;유태현;박종근
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제60권2호
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    • pp.266-272
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    • 2011
  • Real Time Pricing(RTP) is used not only to stabilize the price volatility in electricity market, but to hedge the price risk for Load Serving Entity(LSE). This paper presents an efficient method to reduce the risk of the price volatility in real-time electricity market. For designing the RTP, load patterns of customer are calculated by applying the demand elasticity and customer's utility is also analyzed to compute the RTP revenue through the risk-attribute of the LSE. In the end, the distribution of the LSE's profits can be evaluated to lead the optimal RTP value, depending on the level of customer's participation. Results from the case study based on PJM data are reported to illustrate the proposed method.

Software Piracy in Vietnam: Analysis of Key Factors

  • Tuan, Vo-Quoc;Yoo, Chul-Woo;Kim, Mi-Suk;Choe, Young-Chan
    • 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영정보학회 2007년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.487-492
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    • 2007
  • This research focuses on the development and empirical validation of a model of software piracy behavior on the basis of deterrence theory, expected utility theory and the theory of reasoned action. The total of sample numbered 86 and PLS (Partial Least Square) was utilized for analysis. The test of this study revealed that punishment severity was the greatest significant factor to influence to software piracy and subjective norms was also significantly related to it. However punishment certainty and software cost do not significantly affect to software piracy.

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Decision making for Shipping Network based on Adaptive Cumulative Prospect Theory

  • Pham Thi Yen;Nguyen Phung Hung;Truong Ngoc Cuong;Hwan-Seong Kim
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2023년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.256-257
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    • 2023
  • This paper aims to propose optimal method to assess and cumulate the daily profit for liner shipping to support the shipping lines in making optimal decision with the highest average daily profit. This paper not only explains the actual calculated results align with decision-makers' behavior from concepts indicated in cumulative prospect theory but also contributes to an easy-to-apply method for liner shipping network predictability in and provides optimal decision-making is helpful for shipping managers for the best effective selection of the most appropriate alternative under uncertainties.

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A Distributed Decision-Making Mechanism for Wireless P2P Networks

  • Wu, Xu;He, Jingsha;Xu, Fei;Zhang, Xi
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.359-367
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    • 2009
  • Trust-based solutions provide some form of payment to peers to encourage good behavior. The problem with trust management systems is that they require prior knowledge to work. In other words, peers are vulnerable to attack if they do not have knowledge or correct knowledge of other peers in a trust management system. Therefore, considering only trust is inadequate when a decision is made to identify the best set of peers to utilize. In order to solve the problem, we propose a distributed decision-making mechanism for wireless peer-to-peer (P2P) networks based on game theory and relevant trust mechanisms in which we incorporate the element of trust and risk into a single model. The main idea of our mechanism is to use utility function to express the relationship between benefits and costs of peers, and then make the decision based on expected utility as well as risk attitude in a fully distributed fashion. The unique feature of our mechanism is that it not only helps a peer to select its partners, but also mitigates vulnerabilities in trust-based mechanisms. Through analysis and experiments, we believe our approach is useful for peers to make the decision regarding who to interact with. In addition, it is also a good starting point for exploring tradeoffs among risk, trust and utility.

이윤율헤징을 이용한 원유 구매 전략 (Profit Margin Hedging Strategy in Crude Oil Purchasing)

  • 양지혜;김현석
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.499-517
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 원유 구매자가 원유를 구매함에 있어 이윤율헤징 전략이 항상 헤징하거나 모두 현물 구매하는 전략에 비해 최적의 구매전략이 될 수 있는지 기대목표효용 함수를 이용하여 이론적으로 분석하고 시뮬레이션을 실시하였다. 또한 선물가격이 평균회귀할 때 이윤율헤징이 최적의 전략이 된다는 이론적 증명을 바탕으로 원유 선물가격의 평균회귀성에 대한 실증분석을 수행하였다. 기대목표효용함수에 대한 시뮬레이션 결과, 원유를 구매함에 있어 이윤율헤징 전략을 사용할 경우 다른 전략을 사용해 구매하는 경우에 비해 더 높은 기대효용을 가져오는 것으로 나타났다. 원유 선물가격의 평균회귀성에 대한 실증분석 결과 평균회귀성을 가진다는 것은 입증할 수 없었다. 그러나 이론적 분석과 시뮬레이션 결과, 원유 선물시장에서 이윤율 헤징을 통한 구매전략이 원유 구매의 최적 전략이 된다고 판단할 수 있었다.

PBP(Price Based Pool) 발전경쟁시장에서의 최적입찰전략수립 (Optimal Bidding Strategy of Competitive Generators under Price Based Pool)

  • 강동주;문영환;오태규;김발호
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.57-59
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    • 2001
  • The restructuring of power industry is still going on all over the world for last several decades. Many kinds of restructuring model has been studied, proposed, and applied. Among those models, power pool is more popular than others. This paper assumes the power pool market structure having competitive generation sector and a new method is presented to build bidding strategy in that market. The utilities participating in the market have the perfect information on their cost and price functions, but they don't know the strategy to be chosen by others. To define one's strategy as a vector, we make utility's cost/price function into discrete step function. An utility knows only his own strategy, so he estimates the other's strategy using stochastic methods. For considering these conditions, we introduce the Bayesian rules and noncooperative game theory concepts. Also additional assumptions are included for simplification of solving process. Each utility builds the strategy to maximize his own expected profit function using noncooperative Bayesian game. A numerical example is given in case study to show essential features of this approach.

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Transitional Care for Older Adults with Chronic Illnesses as a Vulnerable Population: Theoretical Framework and Future Directions in Nursing

  • Son, Youn-Jung;You, Mi-Ae
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제45권6호
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    • pp.919-927
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: Effective transitional care is needed to improve the quality of life in older adult patients with chronic illness and avoid discontinuity of care and adverse events. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the key features, broader implications, and the utility of Meleis' transition theory intended for the transitional care of older adults with chronic illnesses. We present the role of nurse in the context of transitional care and propose future directions to increase the quality of nursing care. Methods: The online databases Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, MEDLINE, and Science Direct were searched for relevant literature published since 1970 along with textbooks regarding nursing theory. Results: An evaluation of the usefulness of transition theory based on transitional care in older adult patients with chronic illnesses is provided. Healthy transition should be the expected standard of nursing care for older adults across all healthcare settings. Conclusion: Nurses need to contribute to the development of transitional care for vulnerable populations; however, transition theory needs to be enhanced through additional theoretical work and repeated evaluations of the applicability in areas of transitional care.

The Rubber Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence

  • SRISUKSAI, Pithak
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권11호
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2020
  • This research explores the appropriate rubber pricing model and the consistent empirical evidence. This model has been derived from the utility function and firm profit-maximization model of commodity goods. The finding shows that the period t - 1 affects expected commodity price and expected profit of commodity production. In fact, a change in the world price of rubber in the past period led to a change in the expected price of rubber in the short run which influenced the expected rubber profit. As a result, the past-period free on board price has an entirety effect on expected farm price of rubber given an exchange rate. In addition, the rubber pricing model indicates that the profit of local farmer on rubber plant depends solely on the world price of rubber in the short run in case of Thailand. In an empirical study, it was found that a change in the price of ribbed smoke sheet 3 in Singapore Commodity Exchange significantly and positively determined the fluctuation of rubber price at the farm gate in Thailand which was consistent with the behavior of the Thai farmers. Both prices are also cointegrated in the long run. That is, the result states that the VECM is an appropriated pricing model for forecasting the farm price in Thailand.

A new geophysical exploration method based on electrical resistivity to detect underground utility lines and geological anomalies: Theory and field demonstrations

  • Jo, Seon-Ah;Kim, Kyoung-Yul;Ryu, Hee-Hwan
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제18권5호
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2019
  • Although ground investigation had carried out prior to the construction, many problems have arisen during the civil-engineering works because of the presence of the unexpected underground utility lines or anomalies. In this study, a new geophysical exploration method was developed to solve those problems by improving and supplementing the existing methods. This new method was based on the difference of electrical resistance values between anomalies and surrounding ground medium. A theoretical expression was suggested to define the characteristics of the anomalies such as location, size and direction, by applying the electric field analysis. An inverse analysis algorithm was also developed to solve the theoretical expression using the measured electrical resistance values which were generated by the voltage flowing the subsurface medium. To verify the developed method, field applications were conducted at the sites under construction or planned. From the results of the field tests, it was found that not only the new method was more predictive than the existing methods, but its results were good agreed with the measured ones. Therefore, it is expected that application of the new exploration method reduces the unexpected accidents caused by the underground uncertainties during the underground construction works.