• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected cost

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Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

Habitat Restoration Initiative for Endangered Species Parnassius bremeri (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in Korea (멸종위기종 붉은점모시나비의 서식지 복원구상)

  • Kim, Do-Sung;Park, Seong-Joon;Shin, Young-Kyu;Park, Doo-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.98-109
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    • 2011
  • Habitat restoration initiative is an important factor for the on-site preservation of butterflies. A new habitat necessitates the investigation of the ecology of the butterfly, the landscape of the habitat, the work process, and a cost analysis. In this study, these factors were analyzed through1) re-consideration of the secured results from three years of field work, and 2) a habitat area estimation conducted according to the presence or absence of larvae and adults via a Parnassius bremeri Bremer survey. The investigation of the natural habitat, done for both larvae and adult butterflies found in South Korea, suggested that multiple patches with a minimum size exceeding $300m^2$ and with an average size of about $1,600m^2$were required for survival of this butterfly. Therefore, more than five patches should be considered for butterfly habitat and patches should have similarity to the present habitat environment with transplantation plans for diet plants and honeydew plants. In addition, to activate the migration of the butterfly, cutting down trees that are obstacles to migration, minimizing the distance between patches and the addition of a stepping patch are also required. A patch connectivity analysis showed that patches should be located within 300m of neighboring patches, as the migration of the butterfly will fail if it is more than 600m. Additionally, more than $10,000m^2$ for a single patch or a patch network composed more than five patches over $1,600m^2$ in size were recommended, with a total patch size of $8,000m^2$. Additionally, neighboring multiple patch networks are more desirable than a single habitat in the event a cyclic habitat pattern arises. In this study, we suggest a habitat restoration and optimal prerequisites for a butterfly habitat. It is expected that this research will lead to the creation of a good model for the restoration of butterfly species.

The Role of Blind Protected Specimen Brushing (PSB) in Intubated Patients (기관 삽관 중인 환자에서 Blind Protected Specimen Brushing의 역할)

  • Yoo, Hee Seung;Hong, Ji Hyun;Yoon, Jang Uk;Eom, Kwang-Seok;Lee, Jae Myung;Kim, Chul Hong;Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Dong Gyu;Lee, Myung Goo;Hyun, In Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2003
  • Background : In intubated patients, cultures of endotracheal aspirates (EA) are apt to contamination throughout the endotracheal tube. Therefore, the identification of etiologic agents via conventional EA cultures is not always reliable. In order to differentiate a pulmonary infection from a non-infectious disease, and to identify the true etiologic agent of acute pulmonary infection, blinded protected specimen brushing (PSB) was used, and its efficacy evaluated. Methods : In 51 intubated patients, with suspected pneumonia, blind PSB were performed, and the results compared with blood and EA cultures. A protected specimen brush was introduced through the endotracheal tube, and settled at the affected large bronchus. A specimen brush was introduced to the expected region using the blind method. The tip of the brush was introduced with an aseptic technique after vigorously mixed for 1 minute in $1cm^3$ of Ringer's lactate solution. The specimens were submitted for quantitative culture within 15 minutes, with a culture being regarded as positive if the colony forming units were above $10^3/ml$. Results : Of the 51 patients, 15 (29.4%) had community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), 27 (52.9%) hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) and 9 (17.6%) non-infectious diseases. The sensitivity and specificity of the quantitative PSB culture for the diagnosis of pneumonia were 52.4 and 88.9%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of EA were 78.6 and 77.8%, respectively. The blind PSB was superior to the EA for the identification of true etiologic agents. Of 53 episodes of 27 HAP patients, MRSA (Methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus) (41.5%) was the most common causative agent followed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15.1%), Klebsiella sp. (7.5%) and Acinetobacter sp. (7.5%). Conclusions : As a simple, non-invasive diagnostic modality, the blind PSB is a useful method for the differentiation of a pulmonary infection from non-infectious diseases and to identify the etiologic agents in intubated patients. A blind PSB can be performed without bronchoscopy, so is safer, more convenient and cost-effectiveness for patients where bronchoscopy can not be performed.

Possibility of Substituting Softwoods for Tropical Hardwoods of Door Frames (침엽수재(針葉樹材)의 남양활엽수(南洋闊葉樹) 문틀재(材) 대체(代替) 가능성(可能性) 조사(調査))

  • Kang, Ho-Yang;Jang, Sang-Sik;Lee, Hwa-Hyoung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 1994
  • Since the supply of the Southeast Asian tropical timber decreases and its price steeply increases in the international lumber market, door and window frame manufacturers in this country are eagerly searching for their substitutes. This is the first step to replace Southeast Asian tropical timber by low grade North American softwoods, whose reliable and steady supply is expected, but their appearances are not as good as the tropical timber. In this study, knot distribution on the softwood boards and their warp were examined The yield and production cost were also calculated. The average numbers of knots on a door frame were 7.2 for Douglas-fir and 3.4 for Western hemlock. Only 11% of the knots of Douglas-fir door frames are larger than 5cm in diameter, while are 35% of the knots of Western hemlock. The deformations of door frames, after 2 months air-drying, were measured with a warp table. The deformations of Western hemlock door frames were mostly less than 6mm, while those of Douglas-fir distributed in the range of 0.5 and 9.5mm. The yield of Western hemlock is higher than that of Douglas-fir. It can be concluded that the door frames made of the softwoods are compatible with those made of the tropical timber in most aspects except appearance.

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Ecological Risk of Alien Apple Snails Used in Environmentally-friendly Agriculture and the Urgent Need for Its Risk Management in Korea (친환경농법용 외래 왕우렁이의 생태위해성 및 위해성 관리의 필요성)

  • Bang, Sang-Weon;Cho, Mi-Kyeoung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2008
  • Alien apple snails (Pomacea canaliculata, Pomacea insularus) used in environmentally-friendly agriculture are different from indigenous snails found in Korea. Due to high herbicidal effects and cost-effectiveness, the number of farmers using the snails has been growing every year since 2000. Moreover, in 2008, because of the outbreaks of avian influenza throughout the country from March to May, 2008, central and local governments recommended the use of alien apple snails in agriculture as an alternative to the ducks-oriented environmentally-friendly agriculture. Therefore, it is expected that the use of alien apple snails in agriculture should be expanded in a near future. Since alien apple snails lay eggs with 95.8% of eclosion rate, they are considered to be potential pests unlike indigenous snails. In addition, Japan, Taiwan and most of the southeast Asian countries had already experienced severe ecological and agricultural damage by the alien apple snails. Subsequently, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) designated P. canaliculata as one of "the 100 of the world's worst invasive alien species". It seems highly likely that the alien apple snails in Korea pose a potential threat to conservation of ecosystem and biodiversity since the snails were either found or invaded into the natural environments in some regions of Gangwon-Do and southern parts of Korean Peninsula. However, just recently, agricultural authorities and farmers using alien apple snails in agriculture opposed a proposition of designating the alien apple snails as an ecosystem-disturbing animal described by the Wildlife Protection Act. This is because there has been no concrete evidence of the ecological risk imposed by the alien snails up to now in Korea. Subsequently, in this paper, we analysed the ecological and agricultural risks imposed by the alien snails from the studies done in domestic and abroad. In addition, we proposed an urgent need and reasoning for ecological risk management of the alien snails at the national level as well as using the snails in agriculture.

Evaluation of the Measurement Uncertainty from the Standard Operating Procedures(SOP) of the National Environmental Specimen Bank (국가환경시료은행 생태계 대표시료의 채취 및 분석 표준운영절차에 대한 단계별 측정불확도 평가 연구)

  • Lee, Jongchun;Lee, Jangho;Park, Jong-Hyouk;Lee, Eugene;Shim, Kyuyoung;Kim, Taekyu;Han, Areum;Kim, Myungjin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.607-618
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    • 2015
  • Five years have passed since the first set of environmental samples was taken in 2011 to represent various ecosystems which would help future generations lead back to the past environment. Those samples have been preserved cryogenically in the National Environmental Specimen Bank(NESB) at the National Institute of Environmental Research. Even though there is a strict regulation (SOP, standard operating procedure) that rules over the whole sampling procedure to ensure each sample to represent the sampling area, it has not been put to the test for the validation. The question needs to be answered to clear any doubts on the representativeness and the quality of the samples. In order to address the question and ensure the sampling practice set in the SOP, many steps to the measurement of the sample, that is, from sampling in the field and the chemical analysis in the lab are broken down to evaluate the uncertainty at each level. Of the 8 species currently taken for the cryogenic preservation in the NESB, pine tree samples from two different sites were selected for this study. Duplicate samples were taken from each site according to the sampling protocol followed by the duplicate analyses which were carried out for each discrete sample. The uncertainties were evaluated by Robust ANOVA; two levels of uncertainty, one is the uncertainty from the sampling practice, and the other from the analytical process, were then compiled to give the measurement uncertainty on a measured concentration of the measurand. As a result, it was confirmed that it is the sampling practice not the analytical process that accounts for the most of the measurement uncertainty. Based on the top-down approach for the measurement uncertainty, the efficient way to ensure the representativeness of the sample was to increase the quantity of each discrete sample for the making of a composite sample, than to increase the number of the discrete samples across the site. Furthermore, the cost-effective approach to enhance the confidence level on the measurement can be expected from the efforts to lower the sampling uncertainty, not the analytical uncertainty. To test the representativeness of a composite sample of a sampling area, the variance within the site should be less than the difference from duplicate sampling. For that, a criterion, ${i.e.s^2}_{geochem}$(across the site variance) <${s^2}_{samp}$(variance at the sampling location) was proposed. In light of the criterion, the two representative samples for the two study areas passed the requirement. In contrast, whenever the variance of among the sampling locations (i.e. across the site) is larger than the sampling variance, more sampling increments need to be added within the sampling area until the requirement for the representativeness is achieved.

Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

CHANGES IN WATER USE AND MANAGEMENT OVER TIME AND SIGNIFICANCE FOR AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA

  • Knight, Michael J.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 1997.11a
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    • pp.3-31
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    • 1997
  • Water has always played a significant role in the lives of people. In urbanised Rome, with its million people. sophisticated supply systems developed and then fled with the empire. only to be rediscovered later But it was the industrial Revolution commencing in the eighteenth century that ushered in major paradigm shifts In use and altitudes towards water. Rapid and concentrated urbanisation brought problems of expanded demands for drinking supplies, waste management and disease. The strategy of using water from local streams, springs and village wells collapsed under the onslaughts of rising urban demands and pollution due to poor waste disposal practices. Expanding travel (railways. and steamships) aided the spread of disease. In England. public health crises peaks, related to water-borne typhoid and the three major cholera outbreaks occurred in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century respectively. Technological, engineering and institutional responses were successful in solving the public health problem. it is generally accepted that the putting of water into pipe networks both for a clean drinking supply, as well as using it as a transport medium for removal of human and other wastes, played a significant role in towering death rates due to waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid towards the end of the nineteenth century. Today, similar principles apply. A recent World Bank report Indicates that there can be upto 76% reduction in illness when major water and sanitation improvements occur in developing countries. Water management, technology and thinking in Australia were relatively stable in the twentieth century up to the mid to late 1970s. Groundwater sources were investigated and developed for towns and agriculture. Dams were built, and pipe networks extended both for supply and waste water management. The management paradigms in Australia were essentially extensions of European strategies with the minor adaptions due to climate and hydrogeology. During the 1970s and 1980s in Australia, it was realised increasingly that a knowledge of groundwater and hydrogeological processes were critical to pollution prevention, the development of sound waste management and the problems of salinity. Many millions of dollars have been both saved and generated as a consequence. This is especially in relation to domestic waste management and the disposal of aluminium refinery waste in New South Wales. Major institutional changes in public sector water management are occurring in Australia. Upheveals and change have now reached ail states in Australia with various approaches being followed. Market thinking, corporatisation, privatisation, internationalisation, downsizing and environmental pressures are all playing their role in this paradigm shift. One casualty of this turmoil is the progressive erosion of the public sector skillbase and this may become a serious issue should a public health crisis occur such as a water borne disease. Such crises have arisen over recent times. A complete rethink of the urban water cycle is going on right now in Australia both at the State and Federal level. We are on the threshold of significant change in how we use and manage water, both as a supply and a waste transporter in Urban environments especially. Substantial replacement of the pipe system will be needed in 25 to 30 years time and this will cost billions of dollars. The competition for water between imgation needs and environmental requirements in Australia and overseas will continue to be an issue in rural areas. This will be especially heightened by the rising demand for irrigation produced food as the world's population grows. Rapid urbanisation and industrialisation in the emerging S.E Asian countries are currently producing considerable demands for water management skills and Infrastructure development. This trend e expected to grow. There are also severe water shortages in the Middle East to such an extent that wars may be fought over water issues. Environmental public health crises and shortages will help drive the trends.

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Analysis on the Characteristics of Ventilation and Cooling for Greenhouses Constructed in Reclaimed Lands (간척지 온실의 환기 및 냉방 특성 분석)

  • Nam, Sang-Woon;Shin, Hyun-Ho
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for development of environmental design technology for greenhouses constructed in reclaimed lands. The climatic conditions around seven major reclaimed land areas with a plan to install advanced horticultural complexes in Korea were analyzed. The characteristics of natural ventilation and temperature rise through the thermal environment measurement of the greenhouse in Saemangeum were analyzed. The part to be applied to the environmental design of the greenhouses in reclaimed lands were reviewed. Results of comparing the ventilation rate of the greenhouse according to the presence or absence of plants showed the greenhouse with plants had the lower ventilation rate, but the smaller rise of indoor temperature due to the evapotranspiration of plants. In the greenhouse with plants, the number of air changes was in the range of 0.3 to 0.9 volumes/min and the average was 0.7 volumes/min. The rise of indoor temperature relative to outdoor temperature was in the range of 1 to $5^{\circ}C$ and the average $2.5^{\circ}C$. The natural ventilation performance of the experimental greenhouse constructed in the reclaimed land almost satisfied the recommended ventilation rate in summer and the rise of indoor temperature relative to outdoor temperature did not deviate considerably from the cultivation environment of plants. Therefore, it was determined that the greenhouse cultivation in Saemangeum reclaimed land is possible with only natural ventilation systems without cooling facilities. As the reclaimed land is located in the seaside, the wind is stronger than the inland area, and the fog is frequent. This strong wind speed increases the ventilation rate of greenhouses, which is considered to be a factor for reducing the cooling load. In addition, since the fog duration is remarkably longer than that of inland area, the seasonal cooling load is expected to decrease, which is considered to be advantageous in terms of the operation cost of cooling facilities.

How to Reflect Sustainable Development, exemplified by the Equator Principles, in Overseas Investment (해외투자(海外投資)와 지속가능발전 원칙 - 프로젝트 파이낸스의 적도원칙(赤道原則)을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Whon-Il
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.31
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    • pp.27-56
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    • 2006
  • Today's financial institutions usually take environmental issues seriously into consideration as they could not evade lender liability in an increasing number of cases. On the international scene, a brand-new concept of the "Equator Principles" in the New Millenium has driven more and more international banks to adopt these Principles in project financing. Sustainable development has been a key word in understanding new trends of the governments, financial institutions, corporations and civic groups in the 21st century. The Equator Principles are a set of voluntary environmental and social guidelines for sustainable finance. These Principles commit bank officers to avoid financial support to projects that fail to meet these guidelines. The Principles were conceived in 2002 on an initiative of the International Finance Corporation(IFC), and launched in June 2003. Since then, dozens of major banks, accounting for up to 80 percent of project loan market, have adopted the Principles. Accordingly, the Principles have become the de facto standard for all banks and investors on how to deal with potential social and environmental issues of projects to be financed. Compliance with the Equator Principles facilitates for endorsing banks to participate in the syndicated loan and help them to manage the risks associated with large-scale projects. The Equator Principles call for financial institutions to provide loans to projects under the following circumstances: - The risk of the project is categorized in accordance with internal guidelines based upon the environmental and social screening criteria of the IFC. - For Category A and B projects, borrowers or sponsors are required to conduct a Social and Environmental Assessment, the preparation of which must meet certain requirements and satisfactorily address key social and environmental issues. - The Social and Environmental Assessment report should address baseline social and environmental conditions, requirements under host country laws and regulations, sustainable development, and, as appropriate, IFC's Environmental, Health and Safety Guidelines, etc. - Based on the Social and Environmental Assessment, Equator banks then make agreements with borrowers on how they mitigate, monitor and manage the risks through a Social and Environmental Management System. Compliance with the plan is included in the covenant clause of loan agreements. If the borrower doesn't comply with the agreed terms, the bank will take corrective actions. The Equator Principles are not a mere declaration of cautious banks but a full commitment of lenders. A violation of the Principles in the process of project financing, which led to an unexpected damage to the affected community, would not give rise to any specific legal remedies other than ordinary lawsuits. So it is more effective for banks to ensure consistent implementation of the Principles and to have them take responsible measures to solve social and environmental issues. Public interests have recently mounted up with respect to environmental issues on the occasion of the Supreme Court's decision (2006Du330) on the fiercely debated reclamation project at Saemangeum. The majority Justices said that the expected environmental damages like probable pollution of water and soil were not believed so serious and that the Administration should continue to implement the project seeking ways to make it more environment friendly. In this case, though the Category A Saemangeum Project was carried out by a government agency, the Supreme Court behaved itself as a signal giver to approve or stop the environment-related project like an Equator bank in project financing. At present, there is no Equator bank in Korea in contrast to three big banks in Japan. Also Korean contractors, which are aggressively bidding for Category A-type projects in South East Asia and Mideast, might find themselves in a disadvantageous position because they are generally ignorant of the environmental assessment associated with project financing. In this regard, Korean banks and overseas project contractors should care for the revised Equator Principles and the latest developments in project financing more seriously. It's because its scope has expanded to the capital cost of US$10 million or more across all industry sectors regardless of developing countries or not. It should be noted that, for a Korean bank, being an Equator bank is more or less burdensome in a short-term period, but it must be conducive to minimizing risks and building up good reputation in the long run.

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