• 제목/요약/키워드: Expected Total Cost

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An Economic Analysis on Slush Hydrogen Containing Liquid and Solid Phase for Long-Term and Large-Scale Storage (장주기/대용량 수소저장을 위한 액체/고체기반 Slush 수소의 저장 비용 분석)

  • PARK, SUNGHO;LEE, CHANGHYEONG;RYU, JUYEOL;HWANG, SEONGHYEON
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2022
  • Slush hydrogen containing liquid and solid hydrogen is expected to achieve zero boil-off by suppressing boil-off gas because heat of fusion for solid absorbe the heat ingress from atmosphere. In this paper, quantitative analysis on storage cost considering specific energy consumption between 1,000 m3 class liquid hydrogen storage system with re-liquefaction and slush hydrogen storage system during equivalent zero boil off period. Even though approximately 50% of total storage capacity should be converted into solid phase during the initial cargo bunkering, total energy consumption to convert into slush hydrogen is relatively 25% less than re-liquefaction energy for boil off hydrogen during zero boil off period. That's because energy consumption of slush phase change take up only 1.8% of liquefaction energy. moreover, annual revenue requirement including CAPEX, OPEX and electric cost for slush hydrogen storage could be more reduced approximately 32.5% than those of liquid hydrogen storage and specific energy storage cost ($/kg-H2) could also be lowered by about 41.7% compared with liquid hydrogen storage.

The Economic Feasibility Analysis of 100-MW Power-to-Gas System (100 MW급 Power-to-Gas 시스템의 사전 경제성 분석)

  • Ko, Areum;Park, Sung-Ho;Kim, Suhyun
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2020
  • According to the Korean Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan, the installation capacity of renewable energy is expected to increase whereas technology for storing excess electricity and stabilizing the power supply of renewable energy sources is extremely required. Power-to-Gas is one of energy storage technologies where electricity is converted into gas fuel such as hydrogen and methane. Basically, Power-to-Gas system could be effectively utilized to store excess electricity generated by an imbalance between supply and demand. In this study, the economic feasibility analysis of Power-to-Gas reflecting the domestic situation was carried out. Total revenue requirement method was utilized to estimate the levelized cost of hydrogen. Validation on the economic analysis method in this study was conducted by comparison of the result, which is published by the International Energy Agency. The levelized cost of hydrogen of a 100-MW Power-to-Gas system reflecting the current economic status in Korea is 8,344 won kg-1. The sensitivity analysis was carried out, applying the main analysis economic factors such as electricity cost, electrolyser cost, and operating year. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the conditions for economic feasibility were suggested by comparing the cost of producing hydrogen using renewable energy with the cost of producing natural gas reformed hydrogen with carbon capture and storage.

Analysis of Cost Saving Effect on Stakeholders according to Performance Improvement of Harbor Cranes - The Yeosu Bulk Terminal (항만 양하 크레인의 성능 개선에 따른 이해관계자들의 비용 절감 효과 분석 - 여수 벌크 터미널 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Sang-Kook
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 2017
  • The Terminal Operating Company (TOC) decides to replace the harbor cranes in order to increase revenue and profit through the improvement of unloading efficiency. To achieve this goal, substantial costs and efforts are necessary. However, the conative participation of harbor stakeholders is needed, because they will certainly be passionate enough when expected effects are obvious. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect on stakeholders on direct and indirect cost saving when the cargo handling equipment is replaced. According to the analysis, a total cost saving of 6,561.8 million won will arise including a vessel chartering fee of 3,649.6 million won, a port facility fee of 1,528.8 million won, and fuel costs of 1,383.4 million won as direct effects. As indirect cost effects, a total cost saving of 3,107.0 million won will emerge including an environmental pollution cost of 2,134.8 million won and a freight inventory cost of 972.2 million won. Consequently, the replacement of harbor cranes in the TOC has positive effects on shipping companies, shippers, and the government in terms of costs and other aspects. The results of this study can be utilized as a basis to draw a conative cooperation of stakeholders on TOC's promotion of the harbor cranes replacement.

Analysis on Housing Energy for Applying Geothermal System in Mongolia (몽골에서의 지열 시스템 적용을 위한 주택 에너지분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Ho;Kim, Joong-Hun;Shin, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Geothermal and Hydrothermal Energy
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2014
  • In the capital of Mongolia where the air quality is getting worse due to the coal consumption used for electricity generation and district heating, the application of geothermal systems in the housing sector is recently designed for high class resort. In this study, the case of applying a geothermal system in a house in Mongolia is examined. The effects of passive house design on the needed heat pump capacity, as well as the annual energy consumption are analyzed. Moreover, as the initial costs, except labor fee, are assumed similar to Korea, cost analysis for several cases is examined, too. From the results, if a house is designed according to passive house standard instead of ASHRAE standard, the heat pump capacity can be expected to be reduced from 16 to 5~6 RT. Furthermore, although the initial cost of architectural cost might increased by 29 M\, the total initial cost is reduced by 14 M\, while the annual energy consumption is reduced by 14%. This is mainly driven by the fact that the geothermal system which serves as the main system to cover the building needs, with a high initial cost for fulfilling the peak requirements.

Treatment Patterns, Costs, and Survival among Medicare-Enrolled Elderly Patients Diagnosed with Advanced Stage Gastric Cancer: Analysis of a Linked Population-Based Cancer Registry and Administrative Claims Database

  • Karve, Sudeep;Lorenzo, Maria;Liepa, Astra M;Hess, Lisa M;Kaye, James A;Calingaert, Brian
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.87-104
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To assess real-world treatment patterns, health care utilization, costs, and survival among Medicare enrollees with locally advanced/unresectable or metastatic gastric cancer receiving standard first-line chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database (2000~2009). The inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) first diagnosed with locally advanced/unresectable or metastatic gastric cancer between July 1, 2000 and December 31, 2007 (first diagnosis defined the index date); (2) ${\geq}65$ years of age at index; (3) continuously enrolled in Medicare Part A and B from 6 months before index through the end of follow-up, defined by death or the database end date (December 31, 2009), whichever occurred first; and (4) received first-line treatment with fluoropyrimidine and/or a platinum chemotherapy agent. Results: In total, 2,583 patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean age at index was $74.8{\pm}6.0years$. Over 90% of patients died during follow-up, with a median survival of 361 days for the overall post-index period and 167 days for the period after the completion of first-line chemotherapy. The mean total gastric cancer-related cost per patient over the entire post-index follow-up period was United States dollar (USD) $70,808{\pm}56,620$. Following the completion of first-line chemotherapy, patients receiving further cancer-directed treatment had USD 25,216 additional disease-related costs versus patients receiving supportive care only (P<0.001). Conclusions: The economic burden of advanced gastric cancer is substantial. Extrapolating based on published incidence estimates and staging distributions, the estimated total disease-related lifetime cost to Medicare for the roughly 22,200 patients expected to be diagnosed with this disease in 2014 approaches USD 300 millions.

Power Generation Cost Comparison of Nuclear and Coal Power Plants in Year 2001 under Future Korean Environmental Regulations -Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis- (미래의 한국의 환경규제여건에 따른 2001년도의 원자력과 석탄화력 발전단가비교 -민감도와 불확실도 분석-)

  • Lee, Byong-Whi;Oh, Sung-Ho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.18-31
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    • 1989
  • To analyze the impact of air pollution control on electricity generation cost, a computer program was developed. POGEN calculates levelized discounted power generation cost including additional air pollution control cost for coal power plant. Pollution subprogram calculates total capital and variable costs using governing equations for flue gas control. The costs are used as additional input for levelized discounted power generation cost subprogram. Pollution output for Rue Gas Desulphurization direct cost was verified using published cost data of well experienced industrialized countries. The power generation costs for the year 2001 were estimated by POGEN for three different regulatory scenarios imposed on coal power plant, and by levelized discounted power generation cost subprogram for nuclear power. Because of uncertainty expected in input variables for future plants, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were made to check the importance and uncertainty propagation of the input variables using Latin Hypercube Sampling and Multiple Least Square method. Most sensitive parameter for levelized discounted power generation cost is discount rate for both nuclear and coal. The control cost for flue gas alone reaches additional 9-11 mills/kWh with standard deviation less than 1.3 mills/kWh. This cost will be nearly 20% of power generation cost and 40% of one GW capacity coal power plant investment cost. With 90% confidence, the generation cost of nuclear power plant will be 32.6-51.9 mills/kWh, and for the coal power plant it will be 45.5-50.5 mills/kWh. Nuclear is favorable with 95% confidence under stringent future regulatory requirement in Korea.

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Construction Claims Prediction and Decision Awareness Framework using Artificial Neural Networks and Backward Optimization

  • Hosny, Ossama A.;Elbarkouky, Mohamed M.G.;Elhakeem, Ahmed
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents optimized artificial neural networks (ANNs) claims prediction and decision awareness framework that guides owner organizations in their pre-bid construction project decisions to minimize claims. The framework is composed of two genetic optimization ANNs models: a Claims Impact Prediction Model (CIPM), and a Decision Awareness Model (DAM). The CIPM is composed of three separate ANNs that predict the cost and time impacts of the possible claims that may arise in a project. The models also predict the expected types of relationship between the owner and the contractor based on their behavioral and technical decisions during the bidding phase of the project. The framework is implemented using actual data from international projects in the Middle East and Egypt (projects owned by either public or private local organizations who hired international prime contractors to deliver the projects). Literature review, interviews with pertinent experts in the Middle East, and lessons learned from several international construction projects in Egypt determined the input decision variables of the CIPM. The ANNs training, which has been implemented in a spreadsheet environment, was optimized using genetic algorithm (GA). Different weights were assigned as variables to the different layers of each ANN and the total square error was used as the objective function to be minimized. Data was collected from thirty-two international construction projects in order to train and test the ANNs of the CIPM, which predicted cost overruns, schedule delays, and relationships between contracting parties. A genetic optimization backward analysis technique was then applied to develop the Decision Awareness Model (DAM). The DAM combined the three artificial neural networks of the CIPM to assist project owners in setting optimum values for their behavioral and technical decision variables. It implements an intelligent user-friendly input interface which helps project owners in visualizing the impact of their decisions on the project's total cost, original duration, and expected owner-contractor relationship. The framework presents a unique and transparent hybrid genetic algorithm-ANNs training and testing method. It has been implemented in a spreadsheet environment using MS Excel$^{(R)}$ and EVOLVERTM V.5.5. It provides projects' owners of a decision-support tool that raises their awareness regarding their pre-bid decisions for a construction project.

An improved methodology for estimating traffic accident cost savings in the (preliminary) feasibility study ((예비)타당성조사의 교통사고 감소편익 산정방안 보완 연구)

  • Jang, Su-Eun;Jeong, Gyu-Hwa
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2007
  • This paper proposes an improved methodology for estimating traffic accident cost savings in the transport appraisal. Four major problems from the existing framework are identified and their alternatives are suggested. First, casualties in the established approach are classified by just two types of 'killed' and 'injured'. This study supplies the indices of fatality further details. Namely, road victims are regrouped by 'killed', 'seriously injured', 'slightly injured', and 'accident reports'. Those of railways are similarly sorted by 'killed', 'seriously injured', and 'slightly injured'. Second, damage only accidents are not satisfactorily considered in the current arrangement. The accidents should be considered as one of the accident types and the social cost of them should also be evaluated. Third, the unit cost of accidents is given by the total value. The unit cost is consisted of several elements and each loss would be useful for a policy frame. This study breaks down the total figure into four pieces of costs, namely production loss, medical treatment, property loss, and administrative costs. Finally, there is inconsistency in the audit between roads and railways. Road accidents are analyzed by road types. On the other hand, patronage or others is the classification rule of rail accident costs. This paper suggests a way that the accident costs of two modes can be coherently estimated based on the level of services by each mode. The result of this study is expected to help frame more cautious social overhead capital investment policies.

The Economic Analysis of Underground Parking Lot Frames adopting 8-Bay Parking Modules (8-Bay 주차모듈을 적용한 아파트 지하주차장 구조의 경제성 분석)

  • Yu, Yongsin;Yoon, Bohyung;Kim, Minsu;Kim, Taewan;Lee, Chansik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2019
  • On 30 June, 2017, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport announced the minimum size of parking section will be expanded in parking lots. The expansion of parking section could lead to increase in apartment prices because of increase in total area of the parking lots. It is necessary to adjust the column spacing and number in the parking lots and to apply the 8-Bay long-span parking module with good parking efficiency. According to the study, the construction cost of the 6-Bay module and 8-Bay module was almost the same. But The 8-Bay module was more economical than the 6-Bay module because of the reduction in total area of 8-Bay multi-moduel. The Result of construction cost of 8-Bay modules, Removal Deck-plate RC system was most economical. While the construction cost of PC system was higher due to increase in volume of the member, it would ensure sufficient economy by reducing the girder height to apply a pre-stress method. Also, the construction cost of hollow slab system was the highest. But it could be used as the underground parking lots for apartment, because it had the lowest cost per square meter. This Study has a academic significance by proving the applicability of the 8-Bay Module to underground parking lot of apartment. And it is expected that this study will be used as basic data to derive optimal construction method that applies 8-Bay Module.

An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.