• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.22-30
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• 1995

In this Paper we study the convergence behavior of the least mean fourth (LMF) algorithm where the error raised to the power of four is minimized for a multiple sinusoidal input and Gaussian measurement noise. Here we newly obtain the convergence equation for the sum of the mean of the squared weight errors, which indicates that the transient behavior can differ depending on the relative sizes of the Gaussian noise and the convergence constant. It should be noted that no similar results can be expected from the previous analysis by Walach and Widrow.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.222-233
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• 2010

This paper aims at predicting the BDI from Jan. to Dec. 2010 using such econometric techniues of the univariate time series as stochastic ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the two ARIMA models and five Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through December 2009. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error (ME). The RMSE and MAE indicate that the ARIMA-type models outperform the random walk model And the mean errors for all models are small in magnitude relative to the MAE's, indicating that all models don't have a tendency of overpredicting or underpredicting systematically in forecasting. The pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are expected to be 2,820 at the end of 2010 compared with the optimistic forecasts of 4,230.