• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exogenous Specification

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Using the Demand-driven Model-based Inter-industry Analysis to Examine the Economic Effects of Petroleum Refinery Sector (수요유도형 모형 기반 산업연관분석을 적용한 정유 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Kim, Ho-Young;Song, Tae-Ho;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.104-113
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    • 2015
  • This study tried to conduct a comparative analysis on the yearly economic effects of petroleum products sector. Inter-industry tables published 1990~2012 are used in this study. Especially petroleum products sector is specified as exogenous to identify the economic effects on own and other sectors. Production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. The results of the analysis, the case of annual production inducing-effect, show the downward trend from 1993 to 2008. and It seemed to be constant from 2009 to 2012. The value-added inducing-effect, from 1990 to 1998, shows a rising trend. the since 1998, it was found to decline steadily. Employment-inducing effect is shown a steadily decreasing trend from 1990 to 2008, and has been kept constant from 2010 at the level under 1.300(person/one billion won). These results of in comparison with the past are significant in that it can be objectively evaluate the domestic oil industry at the present time. and it can be usefully utilized to predict the economic effect of future oil industry.

An Effect of Business Service Industry on Korean National Economy using An Input-Output Analysis (비즈니스서비스 산업이 한국경제에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 산업연관분석을 이용하여)

  • Shin, Yong Jae;Yim, Myung-Seong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.275-285
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    • 2013
  • As the world economy has been changed into the knowledge-based society, all economic activities have globalized and intensified competition in the marketplace, and the forces of these changes are even more aggressively pressuring today's business. According to many businesses are focused on the core competence and various functions are outsourced by service providers, many firms pay heavily attention to business service. Although the importance of business service, domestic business service industry shows a low labor productivity. On the other hand, foreign business service companies in korea take a substantial portion of business service market. Thus, domestic business service needs to increase a competitiveness because of potential growth opportunities. This study attempts to find out the ripple effect of business service industry on other industry.

A Study for an Efficient Utilization of the Linear Model (선형모형의 효율적 활용성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Tae-Ho;Cho Eun Jung;Kim Mi Yun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2005
  • Most of the statistical models that real data can be applicable are static in nature, and thus it is not possible to analyze the effect of variations in the real world over time. Usual specification of the models does not produce the length and the time path of the effect even if the effect of an exogenous variation continues for periods of time. In this study, deriving the dynamic inherence from the static structure of the linear model for better utilization, we attempt to apply actual data to compare and analyze the long-run effect of variations in the market variables between the related markets by formulating a simultaneous equation system. Accordingly, it is proved to be possible to obtain efficient analytical results and to derive various useful implications.

An Analysis for the Adjustment Process of Market Variations by the Formulation of Time tag Structure (시차구조의 설정에 따른 시장변동의 조정과정 분석)

  • 김태호;이청림
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2003
  • Most of statistical data are generated by a set of dynamic, stochastic, and simultaneous relations. An important question is how to specify statistical models so that they are consistent with the dynamic feature of those data. A general hypothesis is that the lagged effect of a change in an explanatory variable is not felt all at once at a single point in time, but The impact is distributed over a number of future points in time. In other words, current control variables are determined by a function that can be reduced to a distributed lag function of past observations. It is possible to explain the relationship between variables in different points of time and to estimate the long-run impacts of a change in a variable on another if time lag series of explanatory variables are incorporated in the model specification. In this study, distributed lag structure is applied to the domestic stock market model to capture the dynamic response of the market by exogenous shocks. The Domestic market is found more responsive to the changes in foreign market factors both in the short and the long run.

Economic Effects of Sewage and Wastewater Treatment Service Sector: An Inter-industry Analysis (산업연관분석을 활용한 하수처리 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Park, So-Yeon;Lim, Seul-Ye;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.171-182
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    • 2015
  • The economic effects of sewage and wastewater treatment service (SWTS) sector on other sectors have been rarely investigated in the literature. This paper attempts to apply an inter-industry analysis to looking into the economic effects of the SWTS sector. To this end, the most recently published 2012 input-output table is used here. In particular, the SWTS sector is specified as exogeneous to identify the economic effects of the SWTS sector on other sectors. Production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Supply shortage effect and price pervasive effect are also analyzed employing supply-driven model and Leontief price model, respectively. The results show that production-inducing effect and value-added creation effect of a unit of investment or production in SWTS sector are estimated to be 1.7076 and 0.7392, respectively. The employment-inducing effect of one billion of investment or production in the SWTS sector is computed to be 11.0498 persons. The shortage effect of the SWTS sector amounts to 0.8417 won. The overall price effect of the 10% increase in the price of SWTS sector is calculated to be 0.0115%. This quantitative information can be utilized in predicting the economic effects of the SWTS sector-related activities or policy-making.

A Comparative Study on Economic Effect of life insurance and indemnity insurance Industry (생명보험산업과 손해보험산업의 경제적 파급효과 비교 분석)

  • Jung, Kun-Oh;Lim, Eung-Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.646-652
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    • 2011
  • The interest in personal health is now growing around the world. Accordingly, the insurance industry which is closely related to personal health is becoming more important. Insurance industry can be divided into to main stream, life insurance and indemnity insurance. This study attempts to compare the economic impacts of the life insurance industry and indemnity insurance industry using an inter-industry analysis. The study investigates production-inducing effect, value added inducing effect, employ-inducing effect, sectoral price effect using Exogenous specification. The results show that indemnity insurance industry induces production-inducing effect of 2.7 won, value-added-inducing effects of 1.6 won, employ-inducing effect of 26.9 person, sectoral price effects is 2.0%. On the other hand, life insurance industry induces production-inducing effect of 1.6 won, value-added-inducing effects of 1.0 won, employ-inducing effect of 16.5 person, sectoral price effects is 1.2%. Overall, indemnity inducements has higher economic impacts than life insurance.

A Multi-Period Analysis on the Economic Effects of Fisheries Processing Industry Using 2000-2019 Input-Output Table (2000-2019년 산업연관표를 이용한 수산가공품 산업의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Um, Kwon-O;Lee, Heon-Dong
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.45-63
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the structure, status and economic ripple effects of the fisheries processing industry in Korea using interindustry analysis. Five input-output tables published over the past twenty years have been reclassified with a focus on the fisheries processing sector. Through these multi-period tables, we analyzed changes in the inducing effects in production, value added and employment as well as the backward-forward linkage effects. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the industrial scale of the fisheries processing industry is very small compared to other food manufacturing industries. The backward linkage effect of the fisheries processing industry was greater than that of other industries, but the forward linkage effect was rather low. This means that the fisheries processing industry can be greatly affected by industrial depression of the downstream industries such as fishery and aquaculture. Production and employment-inducing effects of the fisheries processing industry have shown a decreasing trend in recent years. This reflects the reality that intermediate inputs are gradually being replaced by imports from domestic production due to the expansion of market opening and the depletion of fishery resource. In the future, it is necessary to prepare a strategy to increase the value-added productivity of the fisheries processing sector and foster it as an export industry.

Analyzing the impact of increase in energy price on the general price level (에너지원별 가격조정의 물가파급효과 분석)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Song, Tae-Ho;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.376-385
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    • 2013
  • There are conflicts about energy price increase among government, producer, and consumer. The supplier insists on price increase for escaping running a deficit and business continuity, but the consumer concerns about worsening profitability and price rise. This study investigates the effects of energy rate increase on national economy using input-ouput(I-O) analysis. This study attempts to analyze the effects of national economy due to Coke and hard-coal, Naphtha, Gasoline, Kerosene, Light oil, Heavy oil, Liquefied petroleum gas, Electric utilities, Manufactured gas supply and Steam and hot water supply (using input-output table for the year 2011, Korea.) The results of the sectoral price changes due to a 10% increase in energy price that is obtained from the Leontief price model are presented in article. The result of this analysis is presented: The impact of the 10% increase in electricity rate on the general price level is estimated to be 0.2196%. In case of Kerosene, the impact is 0.1222%. It shows that Electric utilities are approximately 18 times larger price inducing effect as Kerosene. Also, this study indicates 3 years results sequentially to make it possible to observe trend. Then, study suggests balancing price by making each energy source adjusted.

The Role of the Business Consulting Industry in the Korean National Economy: An Input-Out Analysis (경영컨설팅 산업의 경제적 파급효과 변화 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Yong-Jae;Yim, Myung-Seong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2012
  • Consulting industry is a knowledge intensive business service industry to lead to knowledge creation as well as support high value creation of other industries. While the consulting industry has a great ripple effect on whole industries, there is a lack of interest in the consulting industry. Thus, this study investigates a ripple effect of the consulting service on the national economy using an Input-Output analysis. We summarize some of our findings as follows. First, A production of 1.0 won in the business consulting industry induces production of 0.6933 won in 2005 and 0.7851 in 2009; value-added of 0.2881 won in 2005 and 0.3039 won in 2009. A production of 1.0 billion won in the business consulting industry Industry produces employment for 0.1124 persons in 2005 and 0.1207 persons in 2009. Second, the supply shortage of 1.0 won in the business consulting industry prevents other industries from producing 2.6759 won in 2005 and 3.0145 won in 2009. Third, a 10% increase in the price level of the business consulting industry raises the overall price level from 0.1691% in 2005 to 0.2161% in 2009. The research results show that consulting industry has been increasing a effect on Korea national economy.

The Supply Shortage Effects of Oil Refinery Industry in Korea (국내 정유산업의 공급지장효과 분석)

  • Cho, Yong-Cheol;Lee, Yong-Hwan;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.164-172
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    • 2015
  • As the petroleum products produced from the Oil refinery industry (ORI), a national key industry in Korea, are supplied to other industries as an intermediate goods, the supply shortage of ORI has a large impact on the national economy. This paper attempts to analyze the supply shortage effects which are defined as the negative impact of one won of supply failure in the ORI on the production of other industries. To this end, an inter-industry analysis using an input-output (I-O) table describing inter-industry flow of intermediate goods is applied. More concretely, the supply-driven model is employed over the period 1990-2012. In addition, the results are compared with those for shipbuilding, semiconductor, and steel industries. The results show that the supply shortage effects are computed to be 0.9205 won when using 2012 I-O table. More specifically, the supply shortage effects on chemical products and transportation industries are computed to be 0.2113 and 0.1140, which are relatively large, The supply shortage effect of ORI is smaller than that of steel industry (1.4131 won), but larger than that of shipbuilding industry (0.0586 won) and that of semiconductor industry (0.1111 won).