• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.1-6
• /
• 2021

This research examines the stock market index determinants and the prediction using the FFT curve fitting of the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper has used daily data of Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index, interest rate, and exchange rate from 15 October 2019 to 15 September 2020, and a total of 224 observations, retrieved from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Indonesia Statistics Central Bureau and Observation & Research of Taxation. The study covers descriptive statistics, multicollinearity test, hypothesis tests, determination test, and prediction using FFT curve fitting. The results unveil four fresh and robust evidence. Partially, the interest rate has affected positively and significantly the stock market index. Partially, the exchange rate has affected negatively and significantly the stock market index. The F-test result, interest rate, and exchange rate have significantly affected the stock market index (JKSE) simultaneously. Furthermore, the FFT curve fitting has predicted that the stock market fluctuates and increases over time. The results have shown a strong influence of the independent variables and the dependent variable. The value of Adjusted R-Square is 0.719, which means that the independent variables have simultaneously impacted the dependent variable for 71.9%; other factors have influenced the remaining 28.1%.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.15-21
• /
• 2014

This study investigates extensively the integration of various segments of financial markets (i.e. money market, lending and deposit market, exchange rate market, and capital market) both domestically and internationally. Cointegration approach is employed in the study to find out long term relationship among the variables. Data are on a monthly interval for the period spreads over 2001 to 2010. The results show no evidence of cointegration between money market and exchange rate market and between capital market and exchange rate market of Pakistan. On the other hand, international financial markets integration is also investigated and the findings revealed that domestic money market rates of Pakistan and USA are not cointegrated. Whereas, an evidence of cointegration between capital markets of Pakistan and USA is found in this study.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.27-49
• /
• 2009

Recently, the Korea's economy concerns the second money crisis because of the rapid increase of the exchange rate. The Korea's economy which is very dependent on the foreign trade is more sensitive to the change of exchange rates. There are many literatures which analyze the effects of variations of the exchange rates on the secondary and tertiary industries such as the manufacturing industry and IT(Information Technology). But there have been no studies which try to figure out the effects of variations of exchange rate on the primary industries, especially, fisheries' industry. Therefore this paper tries to analyze the effect of price competition structure and the change of exchange rate on foreign fisheries exporting prices in Korea's fisheries import market. This study utilizes OLS(Ordinary Least Squares Analysis) for the analysis in the market of frozen yellow corvina, hairtail, angler fish which are major fisheries importable in Korea. The results show that the exporting country which has the highest market share is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rates itself than that of the other exporting countries' price when it starts to set up its exporting price. And the exporting countries which have low market share are more sensitive to the change of price which country has the highest market share than that of price whose countries have low market share and those of their exchange rate. Also we can find out that the countries which have similar market share try to set up price-setting strategy in the opposite direction. In other words, one country tries to bid up its price, other countries response to rival country by lowering their prices. In the consideration of the fact that most exporting countries aren't affected by Korea's fisheries' prices, the exporting countries in Korea's fisheries import market are more sensitive to the prices of other exporting countries than that of Korea's. This result indicates that the price leader-follower model could be applicable to the Korea's fisheries import market.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.14 no.12
• /
• pp.79-87
• /
• 2016

Purpose - Since 1990, the sudden stop in capital flows has caused the economic crisis. The purpose of this research is to suggest the policy measures to mitigate the risk of the sudden stop in capital flows. To this end, we examine the theoretical framework and analyze the case study for countries which are faced with the sudden stop. Also we examine the structural problems of the foreign exchange market in Korea and derive the policy implications to prevent the sudden stop. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria of whether the sudden stop in capital flows occurs are based upon Calvo et al. (2008). In case the proxy variable for the balance of capital account decreases from the average by over twice standard deviation, we determine that the sudden stop occurs for that country. The sample period is from January 1990 to December 2008, as in Calvo (2014). The sample countries are 17 developed countries and 19 emerging market countries, which are different from those of the previous papers as Agosin and Huaita (2012), and Calvo (2014). When the exchange market pressure index(EMPI) is deviated from the average by over three times standard deviation, we determine that the foreign exchange market is unstable for that country. Results - We find that the characteristics of the sudden stop in capital flows are the bunching or contagion among countries, the rapid drop in real effective exchange rate, and the huge decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Many countries tried to increase foreign exchange reserves and regulate capital flows. Also the foreign exchange market in Korea are found to be the volatile exchange rate, the vulnerable external debt and careless management of the foreign exchange derivatives transaction risk. Conclusions - To lessen the risk in the sudden stop of capital flows, this research suggests the some useful policy measures. To enhance the foreign exchange and distribution market stability, we should improve the price mechanism of exchange rate, hold the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves, prevent excessive inflows of foreign exchange and promote sound transactions of foreign exchange derivatives.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.103-122
• /
• 2009

The paper is basically designed to investigate any existence of co-movement among foreign exchange market, goods market, and monetary market implemented by relative PPP and interest rate parity. And, rational expectation and GARCH-M model are employed for an empirical application. The result revealed that since the co-movement among the markets is hardly found, an efficiency of foreign exchange market is independent from any shocks from the goods market and the monetary market. Whereas, the exchange rate is strongly effected by a real interest rate parity. To this end, the real interest rate should be a key policy instrument to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.8
• /
• pp.41-49
• /
• 2020

This study investigates the short-run and long-run causal behavior of the Philippine stock market index volatility under vector error correction environment. The variables were tested first for stationarity and then long-run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, an impulse response function was estimated to examine the extent of innovations in the independent variables in explaining the Philippine stock market index volatility. The results reveal that the volatility of the Philippine stock market index exhibit long-run equilibrium relationship with Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices. The short-run dynamics-based VECM estimates indicate that in the short-run, increases (i.e., depreciation) in Peso-Dollar exchange rate cause PSEI volatility to increase. As for the London Interbank Offered Rate, it causes increases in PSEI volatility in the short-run. The adjustment coefficients used with the long-run dynamics validates the presence of unidirectional causal long-run relationship from Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices to PSEI volatility, and bidirectional causal long-run relationship between PSEI volatility and London Interbank Offered Rate. The impulse response functions developed within the VECM framework demonstrate the positive and negative reactions of PSEI volatility to unanticipated Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil price shocks.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.535-556
• /
• 2024

Measuring stock market volatility and its determinants is critical for stock market participants, as volatility spillover effects affect corporate performance. This study adopted a novel approach to analysing and implementing GARCH-MIDAS modelling methods. The classical GARCH as a benchmark and the univariate GARCH-MIDAS framework are the GARCH family models whose forecasting outcomes are examined. The outcome of GARCH-MIDAS analyses suggests that inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and oil price are significant determinants of the volatility of the Johannesburg Stock Market All Share Index. While for Nigeria, the volatility reacts significantly to the exchange rate and oil price. Furthermore, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and oil price significantly influence Ghanaian equity volatility, especially for the long-term volatility component. The significant shock of the oil price and exchange rate to volatility is present in all three markets using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) framework. The GARCH-MIDAS, with a powerful fusion of the GARCH model's volatility-capturing capabilities and the MIDAS approach's ability to handle mixed-frequency data, predicts the volatility for all variables better than the traditional GARCH framework. Incorporating these two techniques provides an innovative and comprehensive approach to modelling stock returns, making it an extremely useful tool for researchers, financial analysts, and investors.

• Knowledge Management Research
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.71-85
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.53 no.2
• /
• pp.21-41
• /
• 2022

The effect of change in exchange rates on an economy is very important, especially, to a small open economy like South Korea. I explore whether Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have positive influences on exchange rate-pass through import price of import market for fishery products in South Korea. Competition among FTA partners is enhanced after FTAs are effective. I expect that the extent to which are exchange rate pass-through (hereafter, ERPT) into import price of fishery products (in terms of Korea currency) would be reduced since the import market for fishery products in South Korea is an oligopolistic market. Specifically, I investigate two research questions with six South Korea's FTA partners-Norway, Thailand, Peru, U.S., China and Vietnam. First, whether the extent to which are exchange rate pass-through into import price of fishery products from six FTA partners would decrase in the post-FTA era; seconds, the size of reduction has a negative relation with the size of their market share in the import market for fishery products in South Korea if it decreases. The empirical results indicate that the degree of ERPT into import price from other FTA partners than Norway has been reduced after FTA, statistically and significantly; however, I do not find the evidence that the size of reduction is related to their market share. The findings in this study imply that FTAs have negative effects on producers' economic welfare in South Korea's fishery industry by reducing the extent to which are exchange rate pass-through as well as reducing tariff barriers.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.8
• /
• pp.143-150
• /
• 2020

This study aims to investigate the effect of oil price and exchange rate on the two Vietnamese stock market indices: VN index and HXN index. This study uses the daily data from August 1^st 2000 to October 25^th 2019 of the two Vietnamese stock indices: VN index and HNX index, the two oil price indices: BRENT and WTI, and the two exchange rates: US dollar to Vietnamese dong and Euro to Vietnamese dong. Due to the presence of heteroskedasticity in our data, we use GARCH (1,1) regression model to perform our analysis. Our findings show that the oil price has a significant positive effect on the two Vietnamese stock market indices. In terms of the stock index volatility, both the VN index and HNX index volatilities are negatively impacted by the return of oil price. While the conclusion about the impact of oil price remained consistent through all three robustness tests, the effect of exchange rate on Vietnamese stock market indices is not consistent. We find thatchanges of the USD/VND exchange rate significantly impact the return and volatility of HNX index only in GARCH (1,1) setting. Our analysis also survives a number of robustness tests.