• Title/Summary/Keyword: Excess probability

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Seasonal Concentration of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Residential Areas Around Petrochemical Complexes and Risk Assessment Using Monte-Carlo Simulation (석유화학단지 주변 주거지역 다환방향족탄화수소(PAHs)의 농도와 Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 위해성평가)

  • Park, Dong-Yun;Choe, Young-Tae;Yang, Wonho;Choi, Kil-Yong;Lee, Chae-Kwan
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.366-377
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    • 2021
  • Background: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are generated in petrochemical complexes, can spread to residential areas and affect the health of residents. Although harmful PAHs are mainly present in particle phase, gas phase PAHs can generate stronger toxic substances through photochemical reaction. Therefore, the risk assessment for PAHs around the petrochemical complex should consider both particle and gas phase concentrations. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the concentration characteristics of particle and gas phase PAHs by season in residential areas around petrochemical complexes, and to assess the risk of PAHs. Methods: Samples were collected for 7 days by seasons in 2014~2015 using a high volume air sampler. Particle and gas phase PAHs were sampled using quartz filter and polyurethane foam, respectively, analyzed by GC-MS. Chronic toxicity and probabilistic risk assessment were performed on 14 PAHs. For chronic toxicity risk assessment, inhalation unit risk was used. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed for probabilistic risk assessment using the mean and standard deviation of measured PAHs. Results: The concentration of particle total PAHs was highest in autumn. The gas phase concentration was highest in autumn. The average gas phase distribution ratio of low molecular weight PAHs composed of 2~3 benzene rings was 85%. The average of the medium molecular weight composed of 4 benzene rings was 53%, and the average of the high molecular weight composed of 5 or more benzene rings was 9%. In the chronic toxicity risk assessment, 7 of the 14 PAHs exceeded the excess carcinogenic risk of 1.00×10-6. In the Monte-Carlo simulation, Benzo[a]pyrene had the highest probability of exceeding 1.00×10-6, which was 100%. Conclusions: The concentration of PAHs in the residential area around the petrochemical complex exceeded the standard, and the excess carcinogenic risk was evaluated to be high. Therefore, it is necessary to manage the air environment around the petrochemical complex.

Performance of DOT Relay System with MRC/GSC receiver in Rayleigh Fading Channels (레일레이 페이딩 채널에서 MRC/GSC 수신하는 DOT 릴레이 시스템의 성능)

  • Kim, Nam-Soo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2012
  • Opportunistic transmit cooperative relaying (OTR) system has been interested for its ability to mitigate the fading in wireless channel without multiple antennas in a small terminal. In OTR system, only the relays that the received Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) from a source is greater than the threshold transmit to the destination. However, the receiving branches of a destination in a realistic system is fixed, the excess number of signals from the transmit relays does not improve the system performance and consequently increases power consumption. In this paper, we adopt Double Opportunistic Transmit (DOT) cooperative diversity system which controls the average number of transmit relays. Although the average number of the transmit relays can be controlled by adjusting the two thresholds in DOT system, the instantaneous number of transmit relays is varying in fading channel. Thus we propose Maximal Ratio Combining (MRC) or Generalized Selection Combining (GSC) according to the number of the signals from relays at the destination. The outage probability of the proposed system is derived in closed form. The analytical results show that the system performance is improved with the number of the branches. Also it is noticed that when the number of the branches is fixed, the outage probability decreases with the increase of the average SNR of S-R path and R-D path.

Nutritional intake of Korean population before and after adjusting for within-individual variations: 2001 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey Data

  • Kim, Dong-Woo;Shim, Jae-Eun;Paik, Hee-Young;Song, Won-O;Joung, Hyo-Jee
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.266-274
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    • 2011
  • Accurate assessment of nutrient adequacy of a population should be based on usual intake distribution of that population. This study was conducted to adjust usual nutrient intake distributions of a single 24-hour recall in 2001 Korean National Health and Nutrition Surveys (KNHNS) in order to determine the magnitude of limitations inherent to a single 24-hour recall in assessing nutrient intakes of a population. Of 9,960 individuals who provided one 24-hour recall in 2001 KNHNS, 3,976 subjects provided an additional one-day 24-hour recall in 2002 Korean National Nutrition Survey by Season (KNNSS). To adjust for usual intake distribution, we estimated within-individual variations derived from 2001 KNHNS and 2002 KNNSS using the Iowa State University method. Nutritionally at risk population was assessed in reference to the Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans (KDRIs). The Korean Estimated Average Requirement (Korean EAR) cut-point was applied to estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intakes except for iron intakes, which were assessed using the probability approach. The estimated proportions below Korean EAR for calcium, riboflavin, and iron were 73%, 41%, and 24% from usual intake distribution and 70%, 51%, and 39% from one-day intake distribution, respectively. The estimated proportion of sodium intakes over the Intake Goal of 2,000 mg/day was 100% of the population after adjustment. The energy proportion from protein was within Korean Acceptable Macronutrient Distribution Ranges (Korean AMDR), whereas that of carbohydrate was higher than the upper limit and that of fat was below the lower limit in the subjects aged 30 years or older. According to these results, the prevalence of nutritional inadequacy and excess intake is over-estimated in Korea unless usual intake distributions are adjusted for one-day intakes of most nutrients.

Threshold Crossing Rate, Phase Distribution and Group Properties of Nonlinear Random Waves of finite Bandwidth (유한한 Bandwidth를 갖는 비선형 불규칙 파열에서의 Threshold Crossing Rate, 위상분포와 파군특성)

  • Jo, Yong-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 1997
  • The nonlinear effects on the statistical properties of wave groups in terms of the average nomber of waves in a group and the mean number of waves in a high run is studied in this paper utilizing the complex envelope and total phase function, random variable transformation technique and perturbation method. It tures out that the phase distribution is modified significantly by nonlinearities and it show systematic excess of values near the mean phase and the corresponding symmetrical deficiency on both sides away from the mean. for the case of threshold crossing rate, it turns out that threshold crossing rate reaches its maxima just below the mean water level rather than zero and considerable amount of probability mass is shifted toward the larger values of water surface elevation as nonlinearity is getting profound. Furthermore, the mean waves in a high run associated with nonlinear wave are shown to have larger values than the linear counterpart. Similar trend can also be found in the average number of waves in a group.

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Red AGNs becoming normal AGNs

  • Kim, Dohyeong;Im, Myungshin;Glikman, E.;Woo, Jong-Hak;Urrutia, T.
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.57.2-57.2
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    • 2014
  • Red active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are supposed to be transitional objects becoming normal AGNs in the galaxy evolution scenario. So far, ~200 red AGNs have been found by very red color in optical through NIR wavelength (e.g., r'-K >5 and J-K>1.3; Urrutia et al. 2009). Here, we compare nuclear activities of the red AGNs to those of normal AGNs to verify the evolutionary phase of the red AGNs. In order to study the nuclear activities of the red AGNs, we use broad emission lines of $P{\beta}$ ($1.28{\mu}m$) of which flux is less suppressed by a factor of 100 than the $H{\beta}$ line in the case of the red AGNs with a color excess of E(B-V)=2 mag. We use 16 red AGNs discovered in previous red AGN surveys by using SDSS, 2MASS, and FIRST (Glikman et al. 2007; Urrutia et al. 2009) at z ~0.7 for which $P{\beta}$ lines are redshifted to the sky window at ${\sim}2.2{\mu}m$. The mean Eddington ratio of the 16 red AGNs is 0.562, and that of the normal AGNs is 0.320, which indicates the red AGNs include more active black hole (BH) than the normal AGNs. To test how significantly the nuclear activities of the red AGNs and the normal AGNs are different, we perform a two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S test) on their Eddington ratio distributions. The K-S test shows the maximum deviation between the cumulative distributions, D, is 0.48, and the probability of null hypothesis, p, is even less than 0.001. This result is consistent with a picture of that the red AGNs are in intermediate phase between the stage of merger-driven starburst galaxy and the normal AGN.

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Predictability Study of Snowfall Case over South Korea Using TIGGE Data on 28 December 2012 (TIGGE 자료를 이용한 2012년 12월 28일 한반도 강설사례 예측성 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Han, Sang-Un;Won, Hye Young;Ha, Jong-Chul;Lee, Jeong-Soon;Sim, Jae-Kwan;Lee, Yong Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2014
  • This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{\circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{\circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.

Relationship between Nutrients intake and Anthropometric indices using '98 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (24시간 회상법으로 조사된 영양섭취 상태와 신체계측결과 비교분석: '98 국민 건강,영양 조사)

  • Sim, Jae-Eun;Mun, Hyeon-Gyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.174-183
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    • 2004
  • This analysis was performed to investigate the relationship between nutrition and anthropometric indices using the data from a cross-sectional survey of a large national sample, '98 Korean national health and nutrition examination survey. Subjects were selected by stratified multistage probability sampling design and completed dietary questionnares including food intakes for one day by 24-hour recall method. For this analysis, 6566 subjects were selected by age(over 20 years old). For anthropometry, height, weight, and waist- and hip- circumference were measured. They were classified by body mass index(BMI, weight(Kg)/$height^2 $($m^2 $)) and waist-hip ratio(WHR, waist circumference(Cm)/hip circumference(Cm)). The nutrients intake of subjects were compared with the recommended daily allowances(RDA). Mean adequacy ratio(MAR) was calculated. Mean heights, weights, BMIs were higher in the groups with nutrient intake over 125% of RDA than the lower intake groups for most nutrients. However, Mean WHR was the highest in the groups with nutrient intake under 75% of RDA for most nutrients excluding iron intake of women aged 20-64 years. Among women aged 20-64 years, means of MAR were 0.71 for obese individuals(BMI>30), 0.72 for subjects with underweight(BMI<18.5), and 0.76 for subjects with normal weight(18.5$\leq$BMI<25). Normal subjects has statistically significantly higher MAR than those of other groups. However, among elderly people aged over 65 years, obese group had the highest MAR, 0.68. Women with abdominal obesity(WHR>0.9) had lower MAR, 0.71 than those with normal weight(MAR=0.76). From these results, obesity and abdominal obesity seems to be the results of malnutrition including both undernutrition and overnutrition rather than simple problem of excess energy intake. Obesity in elderly people needs to be handled differently from adults.

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Evaluation of Reservoir Drought Response Capability Considering Precipitation of Non-irrigation Period using RCP Scenario (RCP 시나리오에 따른 비관개기 누적강수량을 고려한 둑높이기 저수지의 미래 가뭄대응능력 평가)

  • Bang, JeHong;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong;Lee, Sung-Hack
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2017
  • Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to store water resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interaction between cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model, reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severe than past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirs showed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growing season in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for the upcoming drought.

Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model (Bayesian 모형을 이용한 단일사상 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Lee, Jong-Seok;Na, Bong-Kil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2012
  • The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.

On the Study of Developement for Urban Meteorological Service Technology (도시기상서비스 기술 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Chang-Mo;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2011
  • Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.