• Title/Summary/Keyword: Excess probability

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Ensemble Modulation Pattern based Paddy Crop Assist for Atmospheric Data

  • Sampath Kumar, S.;Manjunatha Reddy, B.N.;Nataraju, M.
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.403-413
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    • 2022
  • Classification and analysis are improved factors for the realtime automation system. In the field of agriculture, the cultivation of different paddy crop depends on the atmosphere and the soil nature. We need to analyze the moisture level in the area to predict the type of paddy that can be cultivated. For this process, Ensemble Modulation Pattern system and Block Probability Neural Network based classification models are used to analyze the moisture and temperature of land area. The dataset consists of the collections of moisture and temperature at various data samples for a land. The Ensemble Modulation Pattern based feature analysis method, the extract of the moisture and temperature in various day patterns are analyzed and framed as the pattern for given dataset. Then from that, an improved neural network architecture based on the block probability analysis are used to classify the data pattern to predict the class of paddy crop according to the features of dataset. From that classification result, the measurement of data represents the type of paddy according to the weather condition and other features. This type of classification model assists where to plant the crop and also prevents the damage to crop due to the excess of water or excess of temperature. The result analysis presents the comparison result of proposed work with the other state-of-art methods of data classification.

Research on an Engagement Level Underwater Weapon System Model with Neyman-Pearson Detector (Neyman-Pearson 표적 탐지기를 적용한 수중 무기체계 교전수준 모델 개발 연구)

  • Cho, Hyunjin;Kim, Wan-Jin;Kim, Sanghun;Yang, Hocheol;Lee, Hee Kwang
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2019
  • This paper introduces the simulation concepts and technical approach of underwater weapon system performance analysis simulator, especially focused on probabilistic target detection concepts. We calculated the signal excess (SE) value using SONAR equation, then derived the probability density function(PDF) for target presence($H_1$) or absence($H_0$) cases, respectively. With the Neyman-Pearson detector criterion, we got the probability of detection($P_D$) while satisfying the given probability of false alarm($P_{FA}$). At every instance of simulation, target detection is decided in the probabilistic perspective. With the proposed detection implementation, we improved the model fidelity so that it could support the tactical decision during the operation.

Sequential Sampling Inspection Plans for Defectives (불량갯수에 대한 축차 샘플링검사)

  • Lee, Jae-Heon;Park, Chang-Soon;Park, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 1996
  • The sequential sampling inspection method is an extension of the double-sampling and multiple-sampling methods and its theory is based on the sequential probability ratio test(SPRT). In this paper, the characteristics of SPRT for testing the propotion of defectives are approximated by using the estimated excess over the boundaries. The use of the estimated excess shows good performances in estimating the operating characteristic function and the average sample number of SPRT compared to the method by neglecting the excess. It also makes it possible to determine the boundary values which satisfy the desired error probabilities.

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Sampling Inspection Plans for Defect

  • Jeong, Jeong-Im;Cho, Gyo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.867-877
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    • 2004
  • The sequential sampling inspection method is an extension of the multiple-sampling methods, and its theory is based on the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) of Wald. In this paper, the characteristics of SPRT for testing the number of defects are approximated by using the estimated excess over the boundaries. The use of the estimated excess shows good performances in estimating the operating characteristic function and the average sample number of SPRT compared to the method by neglecting the excess. It also makes it possible to determine the boundary values which satisfy the desired error probabilities.

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Optimal Search Pattern of Ships based on Performance Surface (음향 탐지 성능 분포도 기반에서 함정 최적탐색패턴에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Minki;Kim, Sunhyo;Choi, Jee Woong;Choi, Cheolwoo;Son, Su-Uk;Park, Joungsoo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.328-336
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    • 2017
  • The goal of this study is simulation of optimal search pattern of ships based on performance surface which are reflected underwater environmental. The process is as follows. First, temporal and spatial environmental database are extracted in complex environment and input hull mounted SONAR system parameters. The environmental database and SONAR system parameters are substituted to SONAR equations, and calculate signal excess, detection probability, detection range. And then, the performance surface, which can be used to provide operational insight of SONAR detection performance, are pictorialized. Finally, optimal search pattern of ships are simulated using genetic algorithm based on performance surface. And then, we certify optimal search pattern in various ways.

Characterization of the Resonant Caustic Perturbation

  • Chung, Sun-Ju
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.48.1-48.1
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    • 2010
  • Four of nine exoplanets found by microlensing were detected by the resonant caustic, which represents the merging of the planetary and central caustics at the position when the projected separation of a host star and a bounded planet is s~1. One of the resonant caustic lensing events, OGLE-2005-BLG-169, was a caustic-crossing high-magnification event with A_max ~800 and the source star was much smaller than the caustic, nevertheless the perturbation was not obviously apparent on the light curve of the event. In this paper, we investigate the perturbation pattern of the resonant caustic to understand why the perturbations induced by the caustic do not leave strong traces on the light curves of high-magnification events despite a small source/caustic size ratio. From this study, we find that the regions with small magnification excess around the center of the resonant caustic are rather widely formed, and the event passing the small-excess region produces a high-magnification event with a weak perturbation that is small relative to the amplification caused by the star and thus does not noticeably appear on the light curve of the event. We also find that the positive excess of the inside edge of the resonant caustic and the negative excess inside the caustic become stronger and wider as q increases, and thus the resonant caustic-crossing high-magnification events with the weak perturbation occur in the range of q $\leq$ 10-4. We determine the probability of the occurrence of events with the small excess $|\varepsilon|{\leq}3%$ in high-magnification events induced by a resonant caustic. As a result, we find that for the Earth-mass planets with a separation of ~2.5 AU the resonant caustic high-magnification events with the weak perturbation can occur with a significant frequen.

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A Resource Reduction Scheme with Low Migration Frequency for Virtual Machines on a Cloud Cluster

  • Kim, Changhyeon;Lee, Wonjoo;Jeon, Changho
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.1398-1417
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    • 2013
  • A method is proposed to reduce excess resources from a virtual machine(VM) while avoiding subsequent migrations for a computer cluster that provides cloud service. The proposed scheme cuts down on the resources of a VM based on the probability that migration may occur after a reduction. First, it finds a VM that can be scaled down by analyzing the history of the resource usage. Then, the migration probability is calculated as a function of the VM resource usage trend and the trend error. Finally, the amount of resources needed to eliminate from an underutilized VM is determined such that the migration probability after the resource reduction is less than or equal to an acceptable migration probability. The acceptable migration probability, to be set by the cloud service provider, is a criterion to assign a weight to the resource reduction either to prevent VM migrations or to enhance VM utilization. The results of simulation show that the proposed scheme lowers migration frequency by 31.6~60.8% depending on the consistency of resource demand while losing VM utilization by 9.1~21.5% compared to other known approaches, such as the static and the prediction-based methods. It is also verified that the proposed scheme extends the elapsed time before the first occurrence of migration after resource reduction 1.1~2.3-fold. In addition, changes in migration frequency and VM utilization are analyzed with varying acceptable migration probabilities and the consistency of resource demand patterns. It is expected that the analysis results can help service providers choose a right value of the acceptable migration probability under various environments having different migration costs and operational costs.

Characteristics of NOB Formation in a Coaxial Multi-Air Staged LPG Flame (동축 공기다단 LPG화염의 NOx 생성특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Seok;Ahn, Kook-Young;Kim, Ho-Keun;Yu, Myung-Jong;Baek, Seung-Wook
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-226
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    • 2003
  • Experimental and numerical studies have been done to examine the effects of excess air ratio and tertiary air swirl number on the formation characteristics of NOx in a pilot scale combustor adopting a multi-air staged burner. In numerical calculation the mathematical models for turbulence, radiation and nitric oxide chemistry were taken into account. The radiative transfer equation was solved using the discrete ordinates method with the weighted sum of gray gases model. In the NOx chemistry model, the chemical reaction rates for thermal and prompt NOx were statistically averaged using a probability density function. The results were validated by comparison with measurements. For the experiment, a 0.2 MW pilot multi-staged air burner has been designed and fabricated. Using the numerical simulation developed here, a variation of thermal and prompt NOx formation was predicted by changing the excess air ratio and tertiary air swirl number. As the excess air ratio increased up to 1.9, the formation of the total as well as thermal NOx at exit increased while the prompt NOx decreased. The formation of thermal NOx was more affected by concentration of $O_2$ and $N_2$ than gas temperature. When the tertiary air swirl number increased, the formation of the total as well as the prompt NOx slightly decreased.

Excess Flow Valves for Underground Gas Pipeline and their Performance Testing Equipment Development (연료가스 매몰배관용 과류차단밸브와 성능시험 장치 개발)

  • Lee, Ugwiyeon;Joo, Yukyung;Lee, Jinhan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.74-81
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    • 2018
  • The Korean Government has proceeded petroleum gas pipeline construction business since 2014 for rural districts. The operating pressure of petroleum gas pipeline are from 25kPa to 75kPa which are different from that of natural gas pipeline. Petroleum gas pipeline pressure is ten or forty times higher than natural gas operating pressure. For this reason, petroleum gas pipeline has higher probability of accident occurrence from massive gas leakage. Korea Gas Safety Corporation begins to development excess flow valves and their performance testing equipment since 2017. The excess flow valves stop the gas flow when a overflow happened in gas pipeline. The excess flow valves are generally not installed in main pipeline, because that may block massive gas supply. So, the valves are installed in starting points of branch pipes. According to the number of house and amount of gas use, a shut-off point of exxcess flow valve is determined called as Trip Flow. The trip point is the most important thing of excess flow valve, so, it is required a equipment testing the performances of excess flow valve as trip point.

Scientific rationale and applicability of dose-response models for environmental carcinogens (환경성 발암물질의 용량-반응모델의 이론적 근거와 응용에 관한 연구 - 음용수 중 chloroform을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Dong-Chun;Chung, Yong;Kim, Jong-Man;Lee, Seong-Im;Hwang, Man-Sik
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.1 s.52
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 1996
  • This study described methods to predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995. As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper boud unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about $1.9\times10^{-6}$, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK II) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about $2.4\times10^{-6}\;and\;7.9\times10^{-5}$ at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.

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