• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제57권5호
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• pp.480-489
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• 2024

Objectives: Excess deaths, an indicator that compares total mortality rates before and during a pandemic, offer a comprehensive view of the pandemic's impact. However, discrepancies may arise from variations in estimating expected deaths. This study aims to compare excess deaths in Korea during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic using 3 methods and to analyze patterns using the most appropriate method. Methods: Expected deaths from 2020 to 2022 were estimated using mortality data from 2015-2019 as reference years. This estimation employed 3 approaches: (1) simple average, (2) age-adjusted average, and (3) age-adjusted linear regression. Excess deaths by age, gender, and cause of death were also presented. Results: The number of excess deaths varied depending on the estimation method used, reaching its highest point with the simple average and its lowest with the age-adjusted average. Age-adjusted linear regression, which accounts for both the aging population and declining mortality rates, was considered most appropriate. Using this model, excess deaths were estimated at 0.3% for 2020, 4.0% for 2021, and 20.7% for 2022. Excess deaths surged among individuals in their 20s throughout the pandemic, largely attributed to a rise in self-harm and suicide. Additionally, the results indicated sharp increases in deaths associated with "endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases" and "symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified." Conclusions: Substantial variations in excess deaths were evident based on estimation method, with a notable increase in 2022. The heightened excess deaths among young adults and specific causes underscore key considerations for future pandemic responses.

• 대기
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.463-470
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• 2007

This study aims to assess the impact of the hot summer weather on daily mortality in Busan. Daily total all-caused mortality in the entire population in Busan has been examined during 1991-2005. The daily deaths were standardized to account for the long-term trend in mortality and their seasonal and weekly cycles. We found the net increase (about 8.2%) of excess deaths during the extraordinary heat wave period in July of 1994. It corresponds to the excess deaths of 109.5 during the month. The abnormality of temperature extremes in July of 1994 and their impacts on human health were also investigated. Unusual heat wave appeared in the first ten days in July of 1994. The excess deaths are likely to be attributable to the record-breaking heat waves. The result suggests that unusual early heat waves would be dangerous, even for inhabitants who live in an acclimated region to the heat waves such as Busan.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.120-127
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• 2024

Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to increased mortality rates. To assess this impact, this ecological study aimed to estimate the excess death counts in southern Iran. Methods: The study obtained weekly death counts by linking the National Death Registry and Medical Care Monitoring Center repositories. The P-score was initially estimated using a simple method that involved calculating the difference between the observed and expected death counts. The interrupted time series analysis was then used to calculate the mean relative risk (RR) of death during the first year of the pandemic. Results: Our study found that there were 5571 excess deaths from all causes (P-score=33.29%) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 48.03% of these deaths directly related to COVID-19. The pandemic was found to increase the risk of death from all causes (RR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.33), as well as in specific age groups such as those aged 35-49 (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32), 50-64 (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.49), and ≥65 (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32) years old. Furthermore, there was an increased risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.22). Conclusions: There was a 26% increase in the death count in southern Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of these excess deaths were not directly related to COVID-19, but rather other causes, with cardiovascular diseases being a major contributor.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.355-365
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• 2008

Synoptic and climatological characteristics of heat waves over Korea and Europe as well as their biometeorological impacts were compared. In July of 1994, excess deaths of about 2,388 in the population of South Korea are estimated by the modified excess death calculation algorithm ofKysely (2004). The excess deaths correspond to the net mortality increase of 12.5% in July of 1994 if we compare the estimated value to the expected number of deaths in this month (i.e., about 19,171). The comparative study of heat waves in Korea and Europe shows that the record-breaking heat waves in both regions are closely associated with prolonged droughts. In particular, reduction of soil moisture, precipitation and cloud cover and enhancement of insolation during the drought periods are very likely to be related to the increase in the intensity and the duration ofheat waves. Climate models predict that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves in the 21 st century will be greatly enhanced in both areas. In order to reduce the biometeorological and socioeconomic impacts due to heat waves, not only the development of heat-related mortality prediction model that can be widely applied to many climate regimes, but also studies on the climatological association between extreme temperatures and abnormal hydrological cycle are needed.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.185-196
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• 2024

Objectives: Excess mortality associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been documented. However, research on the disease burden following short-term exposure is scarce. We investigated the cause-specific mortality burden of short-term exposure to PM_2.5 by considering the potential non-linear concentration-response relationship in Korea. Methods: Daily cause-specific mortality rates and PM_2.5 exposure levels from 2010 to 2019 were collected for 8 Korean cities and 9 provinces. A generalized additive mixed model was employed to estimate the non-linear relationship between PM_2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality levels. We assumed no detrimental health effects of PM_2.5 concentrations below 15 ㎍/m³. Overall deaths attributable to short-term PM_2.5 exposure were estimated by summing the daily numbers of excess deaths associated with ambient PM_2.5 exposure. Results: Of the 2 749 704 recorded deaths, 2 453 686 (89.2%) were non-accidental, 591 267 (21.5%) were cardiovascular, and 141 066 (5.1%) were respiratory in nature. A non-linear relationship was observed between all-cause mortality and exposure to PM_2.5 at lag0, whereas linear associations were evident for cause-specific mortalities. Overall, 10 814 all-cause, 7855 non-accidental, 1642 cardiovascular, and 708 respiratory deaths were attributed to short-term exposure to PM_2.5. The estimated number of all-cause excess deaths due to short-term PM_2.5 exposure in 2019 was 1039 (95% confidence interval, 604 to 1472). Conclusions: Our findings indicate an association between short-term PM_2.5 exposure and various mortality rates (all-cause, non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory) in Korea over the period from 2010 to 2019. Consequently, action plans should be developed to reduce deaths attributable to short-term exposure to PM_2.5.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

The re-unification of the two Koreas is seen as a potential solution to the aging problem and low fertility, along with the increase in the old population structure of the Republic of Korea. Population structure is an indicator of national competitiveness or growth, but little is known officially about the populations of Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Understanding the population structure of the DPRK is important to prepare for re-unification and estimate the socio-economic costs of national welfare under a re-unified Korea. In this paper, we assess reliability of the two modern national censuses of DPRK and use the limited resources available to reconstruct the intercensal populations between these two censuses. Excess deaths from the 1995 famine are estimated at 489,972 to 574,306 and are close to the estimates of Goodkind et al. (2011) and the reconstructed populations in the of DPRK implies a big difference between two Koreas.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제48권2호
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• pp.59-67
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• 2023

Background: This study aims to reevaluate natural radiation exposure, following up on our previous study conducted in 2019, and to assess the associated risk of lung cancer to the public residing in the gold mining areas of Betare-Oya, east Cameroon, and its vicinity. Materials and Methods: Gamma-ray spectra collected using a 7.62 cm×7.62 cm in NaI(Tl) scintillation spectrometer during a car-borne survey, in situ measurements and laboratory measurements performed in previous studies were used to determine the outdoor absorbed dose rate in air to evaluate the annual external dose inhaled by the public. For determining internal exposure, radon gas concentrations were measured and used to estimate the inhalation dose while considering the inhalation of radon and its decay products. Results and Discussion: The mean value of the laboratory-measured outdoor gamma dose rate was 47 nGy/hr, which agrees with our previous results (44 nGy/hr) recorded through direct measurements (in situ and car-borne survey). The resulting annual external dose (0.29±0.09 mSv/yr) obtained is similar to that of the previous study (0.33±0.03 mSv/yr). The total inhalation dose resulting from radon isotopes and their decay products ranged between 1.96 and 9.63 mSv/yr with an arithmetic mean of 3.95±1.65 mSv/yr. The resulting excess lung cancer risk was estimated; it ranged from 62 to 216 excess deaths per million persons per year (MPY), 81 to 243 excess deaths per MPY, or 135 excess deaths per MPY, based on whether risk factors reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, United Nations Scientific Committee on the effects of Atomic Radiation, or International Commission on Radiological Protection were used, respectively. These values are more than double the world average values reported by the same agencies. Conclusion: There is an elevated level of risk of lung cancer from indoor radon in locations close to the Betare-Oya gold mining region in east Cameroon. Therefore, educating the public on the harmful effects of radon exposure and considering some remedial actions for protection against radon and its progenies is necessary.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.775-780
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• 2013

Background: In the year 2010, it is estimated that nearly 0.36 million new cases and 0.19 million deaths with Non-Hodgkin lymphoma occurred. In India, among males, NHL incidence rates vary across the country which has encouraged us to conduct a case-control study to study risk factors. Materials and Methods: The present unmatched hospital-based case-control study conducted at Tata Memorial Hospital included subjects registered between the years 1997-99. There were 390 'lymphoma cases' and 1,383 'normal controls. Results: Data on age, tobacco habits, occupational history, dietary factors, tea, coffee were collected by the social investigators. Univariate and multivariate methods were applied for obtaining the odds ratios for risk factors. Conclusions: In the study, cigarette smoking (OR=2.0) and bidi smoking (OR=2.8), were associated with excess risk of lymphoma. Among the dietary items, only consumption of mutton showed 7.3-fold significant excess risk for lymphoma. Consumption of milk showed a 6-fold excess risk (OR=1.5); while coffee showed a 50% reduction in risk for lymphoma. Among occupational exposure, exposure to use of pesticides showed 3-fold excess risk for lymphoma.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.528-535
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• 2013

Air pollution in large cities is reduced through the environmental health policies, but due to increased population and automobile, some pollutants are still a problem. These air pollutants are known to cause asthma and respiratory diseases. According to an OECD report, the number of premature deaths will increase. Hazardous air pollutants should be managed through a systematic monitoring, risk assessment, and many studies are in progress. In order to manage hazardous air pollutants, transformation of policy for the protection of human health is required. management policy through the calculation of the excess number of deaths that occur from hazardous air pollutants for the public health is necessary. Korea has put a lot of efforts for air quality, but health risk assessment should be more considered.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.109-120
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• 2010

극단적 폭염은 온대지역의 여름철 사망률과 유병률을 증가시키는 기상재해이다. 기후모델의 예측결과에 따르면 미래 폭염의 강도와 빈도는 더욱 증가할 것으로 보고되고 있다. 이 연구는 국내 7개 대도시의 폭염유발기단과 일 사망률의 증가와의 연관성을 제시하며, 이를 기반으로 운영 중인 고온건강경보시스템을 소개한다. 1982년에서 2007년까지 관측된 기후자료로부터 종관기단분류기법이 적용되어 각 도시의 여름철의 각 날에 대한 기단분류가 수행되었다. 폭염유발기단과 일 사망률 증가와의 연관성 연구 결과, 고온건조(DT) 기단과 고온다습+(MT+) 기단의 두 기단에서 가장 높은 사망률 증가 연관성이 관찰되었다. 따라서 DT와 MT+ 기단 내의 기상요소들을 이용하여 초과사망자수를 종속변수로 하는 중회귀 분석을 통한 초과사망자수 예측알고리즘이 제작되었다. 또한, 각 대도시들마다 다르게 나타나는 지역적인 기후순응 특성에 입각하여 각 도시별 예측알고리즘에서 사용되는 독립변수가 선정되고, 고온건강경보시스템의 고온건강주의보 및 경보 기준인 초과사망자수 기준이 설정되었다. 지구온난화 추세 하의 고온건강경보시스템은 대규모 건강이상을 야기할 수 있는 폭염에 대한 효과적인 정보를 대도시 시민들에게 제공할 것으로 기대된다.