• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evidence Framework

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TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

  • Lo, Chung-Kung;Pedroni, N.;Zio, E.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2014
  • The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

Impact of Chemical Pesticides Use in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework: A Case Study of Thailand

  • PUTTACHAI, Wachirawit;SINGHAPREECHA, Charuk;SIRISRISAKULCHAI, Jirakom
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2021
  • Although there are several studies on the impact of pesticides use, there is no consistent conclusion about such evidence on capturing the socioeconomic independence. The propose of this paper is to investigate the economy-wide impact of pesticide use in Thailand. The research data and methodology in this paper are depended on a social accounting matrix framework incorporating the pesticide-related illness as an additional sector, following Resosudarmo and Thorbecke (1998), to explain the impact of the pesticides on the related agricultural sector, food sector, and the social welfare of different households. Thus, the main characteristics of the Thai economy can be comprehensively described by providing information contained in this framework. In this respect, the several data sets are constructed to include the economic and social structure interdependencies, which are necessary to analyze the policy implications, especially industrial policy. The results were analyzed according to the general equilibrium theory and the Leontief multiplier matrix. It reveals that the food industry and the economy are significantly affected by the pesticides. One of the most interesting findings of this paper suggest that the food sector needs to determine its output to avoid bottleneck situations and create equality across the food production system.

Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting FTA Utilization by Exporting SMEs: Evidence from the South Korean Textile Industry

  • Song, Joon-heon
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.227-253
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    • 2022
  • Despite the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs), many exporting firms are still confronted with several challenges in utilizing the FTA preferential tariffs. Based on the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, this study empirically examines the factors affecting the utilization of FTA schemes by exporting firms. To clarify the key factors influencing FTA utilization, this study develops a conceptual model from the perspective of the adoption of information technology innovations. Eight factors derived from the TOE framework are proposed to explore the determinants of FTA utilization in export. Partial least squares structural equation modeling is employed to analyze the data collected from 162 exporting small- and medium-sized enterprises in the South Korean textile industry. The findings reveal that compatibility and trading partner influence are positively associated with FTA utilization, while complexity is negatively related. Factors of organizational context do not show any relationship with FTA utilization. This study is the first to theoretically analyze and empirically test the determinants of FTA utilization from the perspective of technological innovation adoptions. By examining the relative importance of TOE factors in the utilization of FTA schemes, this study expects to advance a holistic understanding on the perceived factors that could potentially affect the utilization of FTA schemes.

TOWARDS A RELATIONAL CONTRACTING FRAMEWORK IN THE AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: AN INITIAL FRAMEWORK

  • Melissa Chan;Bambang Trigunarsyah;Vaughan Coffey
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 2011
  • The Australian construction industry is characterized as being a competitive and risky business environment due to lack of cooperation, insufficient trust, ineffective communication and adversarial relationships which are likely lead to poor project performance. Relational contracting (RC) is advocated by literature as an innovative approach to improve the procurement process in the construction industry. Various studies have collectively added to the current knowledge of known RC norms, but there seem to be little effort on investigating the determinants of RC and its impact on project outcomes. In such circumstances, there is lack of evidence and explanation on the manner on how these issues lead to different performance. Simultaneously, the New Engineering Contract (NEC) that embraced the concept of RC is seen as a modern way of contracting and also considered as one of the best approaches to the perennial problem of improving adversarial relationships within the industry. The reality of practice of RC in Australia is investigated through the lens of the NEC. A synthesis of literature views on the concept, processes and tools of RC is first conducted to develop the framework of RC. A case study approach is proposed for an in-depth analysis to explore the critical issues addressed by RC in relation to project performance. Understanding the realities of RC will assist stakeholders in the construction industry with their investment in RC.

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Forehead Reconstruction with Hydroxyapatite Cement(MimixTM) and the Check Framework (Hydroxyapatite Cement(MimixTM)와 격자틀을 이용한 전두부 재건술)

  • Cho, Hyun Woo;Park, Beyoung Yun
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.219-222
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop hydroxyapatite cement simplified procedures for reconstruction of craniofacial deformities. Due to its expense and characteristics of quick hardening time, it may be inappropriate for forehead reconstruction or augmentation. Therefore we hear by introduce a more precise, easy and cheap method. The authors report forehead reconstruction with hydroxyapatite cement for a patient who suffered from craniofacial deformity. Methods: Case report and literature review. Results: A 35 year old man came to us with forehead and temporal area depression. He had a history of brain operations due to traumatic epidural hematoma. A physical exam showed an evidence of right side forehead weakness sign. Authors made RP model of his skull and applied check framework with Kirschner's wires for measuring accurate volume and contour on the depressed right side forehead area on the RP model. After complete exposure of defect area by bicoronary insicion, absorbable plate which applied on skull area was removed. Using three Kirschner's wires, authors made check framework on the right forehead lively and fixed with 2-hole miniplates on the boundary of the defect. After checking asymmetry, hydroxyapatite was applied on check shape framework just above Kirschner's wire. After removing Kirschner's wire, we corrected minimal unbalance and contour with bur. Conclusion: Check framework with Kirschner's wire was very convenient and cost saving methods for forehead reconstruction with hydroxyapatite cement.

Assessing Losers Consent in Mixed Systems: Public Perceptions of Taiwan’s 2008 Legislative Yuan Election

  • Rich, Timothy S.
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.4-16
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    • 2016
  • A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning parties versus losing parties. These analyses fail to capture the complexity of mixed member legislative systems where one can be a winner or loser at both the national and district level. This paper proposes a two-level framework for the analysis of mixed system. An analysis of Taiwan’s first election under a mixed system provides evidence that both support for a national winner and district level winner produce boosts in positive perceptions of the electoral system. National success appears to be a larger motivator of perceptions.

BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR MTAR MODEL WITH INCOMPLETE DATA

  • Park, Soo-Jung;Oh, Man-Suk;Shin, Dong-Wan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.183-189
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    • 2003
  • A momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model, a nonlinear autoregressive model, is analyzed in a Bayesian framework. Parameter estimation in the presence of missing data is done by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We also propose simple Bayesian test procedures for asymmetry and unit roots. The proposed method is applied to a set of Korea unemployment rate data and reveals evidence for asymmetry and a unit root.

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Digital Forensics Framework for Cloud Computing (클라우드 환경을 고려한 디지털 포렌식 프레임워크)

  • Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2013
  • Recently, companies seek a way to overcome their financial crisis by reducing costs in the field of IT. In such a circumstance, cloud computing is rapidly emerging as an optimal solution to the crisis. Even in a digital forensic investigation, whether users of an investigated system have used a cloud service is a very important factor in selecting additional investigated subjects. When a user has used cloud services, such as Daum Cloud and Google Docs, it is possible to connect to the could service from a remote place by acquiring the user's log-in information. In such a case, evidence data should be collected from the remote place for an efficient digital forensic investigation, and it is needed to conduct research on the collection and analysis of data from various kinds of cloud services. Thus, this study suggested a digital forensic framework considering cloud environments by investigating collection and analysis techniques for each cloud service.

The Tobacco Industry's Abuse of Scientific Evidence and Activities to Recruit Scientists During Tobacco Litigation (담배소송 중 담배회사의 과학적 근거 오용과 과학자 포섭 활동)

  • Lee, Sungkyu
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2016
  • South Korea's state health insurer, the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS), is in the process of a compensation suit against tobacco industry. The tobacco companies have habitually endeavored to ensure favorable outcomes in litigation by misusing scientific evidence or recruiting scientists to support its interests. This study analyzed strategies that tobacco companies have used during the NHIS litigation, which has been receiving world-wide attention. To understand the litigation strategies of tobacco companies, the present study reviewed the existing literature and carried out content analysis of petitions, preparatory documents, and supporting evidence submitted to the court by the NHIS and the tobacco companies during the suit. Tobacco companies misrepresented the World Health Organization (WHO) report's argument and misused scientific evidence, and removed the word "deadly" from the title of the citation. Tobacco companies submitted the research results of scientists who had worked as a consultant for the tobacco industry as evidence. Such litigation strategies employed by the tobacco companies internationally were applied similarly in Korean lawsuits. Results of tobacco litigation have a huge influence on tobacco control policies. For desirable outcomes of the suits, healthcare professionals need to pay a great deal of attention to the enormous volume of written opinions and supporting evidence that tobacco companies submit. They also need to face the fact that the companies engage in recruitment of scientists. Healthcare professionals should refuse to partner with tobacco industry, as recommended by Article 5.3 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

The Biology of Anorexia Nervosa-Based on Treasure's Model (신경성 식욕부진증의 생물학-Treasure의 모델에 근거하여)

  • Kim, Youl-Ri
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2007
  • Anorexia nervosa is a physical and psychosocial disorder that occurs most frequently in adolescent girls and young adult women. A decade ago, anorexia nervosa was rare outside of the developed western countries. However, it is now becoming a common clinical problem among young women in Korea. It is not enough to merely focus on relieving patients from the symptoms of "not eating," which is a practice that has been adopted by some forms of hospital care. The evidence base to guide treatment is limited. Nevertheless, there is the hope that a better understanding of the factors that play a role in the initiation and maintenance of disordered eating behaviors may be lead to more sophisticated treatments. This review aims to look beyond the overt "not eating" phenotype of anorexia nervosa and considers eating disorder endophenotypes based on Treasure's model. The first part of the review sets the basis for a framework of potential eating disorder endophenotypes. A description of the evidence of disordered eating behaviors as well as the clinical and psychopathological features associated with the central control of appetite follow. Finally, we describe how endophenotypes can be translated into treatments.

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