• Title/Summary/Keyword: Event tree analysis

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Prediction of Hypertension Complications Risk Using Classification Techniques

  • Lee, Wonji;Lee, Junghye;Lee, Hyeseon;Jun, Chi-Hyuck;Park, Il-Su;Kang, Sung-Hong
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.449-453
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    • 2014
  • Chronic diseases including hypertension and its complications are major sources causing the national medical expenditures to increase. We aim to predict the risk of hypertension complications for hypertension patients, using the sample national healthcare database established by Korean National Health Insurance Corporation. We apply classification techniques, such as logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, and classification and regression tree to predict the hypertension complication onset event for each patient. The performance of these three methods is compared in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. The result shows that these methods seem to perform similarly although the logistic regression performs marginally better than the others.

Severe Accident Management Using PSA Event Tree Technology

  • Choi, Young;Jeong, Kwang Sub;Park, SooYong
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 2003
  • There are a lot of uncertainties in the severe accident phenomena and scenarios in nuclear power plants (NPPs) and one of the major issues for severe accident management is the reduction of these uncertainties. The severe accident management aid system using Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA) technology is developed for the management staff in order to reduce the uncertainties. The developed system includes the graphical display for plant and equipment status, previous research results by a knowledge-base technique, and the expected plant behavior using PSA. The plant model used in this paper is oriented to identify plant response and vulnerabilities via analyzing the quantified results, and to set up a framework for an accident management program based on these analysis results. Therefore the developed system may playa central role of information source for decision-making for severe accident management, and will be used as a training tool for severe accident management.

Evolutionary History of Two Paralogous Glyceraldehyde 3-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Genes in Teleosts

  • Kim, Keun-Yong;Nam, Yoon-Kwon
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.177-181
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    • 2008
  • Glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase(GAPDH) is a key enzyme for carbohydrate metabolism in most living organisms. Recent reports and our own searches of teleost species in publicly available genomic databases have identified at least two distinct GAPDH genes in a given species. The two GAPDH genes are located on the same chromosome in teleosts, whereas they are located on the different chromosomes in mammals. Thus, we reconstructed a phylogenetic tree to better understand the evolutionary history of the GAPDH genes in the vertebrate lineage. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed unambiguously that the two GAPDH genes of teleosts are phylogenetically closely affiliated to one of the cytosolic GAPDH and spermatogenic GAPDH-S of mammals. This indicates that the two paralogous GAPDH genes shared a common ancestor and subsequently underwent a gene duplication event during early vertebrate evolution. However, GAPDH-S of teleosts showed significant differences in the polypeptide residues and tissue distribution of its mRNA transcripts from that of mammals, implying they have undergone a different history of functionalization.

Analysis of the Methods to Decrease the Depth of Menu in Web Site (웹사이트 메뉴 Depth를 줄이는 방식간의 비교 분석)

  • Park, Hui-Seok;Kim, Yu-No
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 2000
  • To enhance web site's usability, it has been suggested that the depth of tree structured menus should be minimized. In this research, experimental results are reported to quantitatively compare the methods currently used for reducing the depth of menus in web sites. 25 popular web sites were selected and their menu types were categorized into four types: top menu, drop-down menu, boolean menu, and table of contents. The four types of menu were then sub-categorized into 15 different types according to their sub-menu type, existence of menu colors, and the event occurring after mouse activation. Performance tests and subjective evaluation were carried out. The results showed that there were no significant differences in terms of response time among the 15 menu types, while table of contents and drop-down in which the first and second level of menus were visible induced the least number of errors. In the subjective test, the top-menu structure with colors and presentation of its sub-menu without clicking mouse were preferred.

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Safety Analysis using bayesian approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 안전사고 예측기법)

  • Yang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2007
  • We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.

A New Dynamic Reliability Assessment for Mid-loop Operations in a Nuclear Power Plant

  • Jae, Moosung
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a dynamic reliability assessment methodology for use in the safety assessment of a complex system such as a nuclear power plant. The method is applied to a dynamic analysis of the potential accident sequences that may occur during mid-loop operation in a nuclear power plant. The idea behind this approach consists of both the use of the concept of the performance achievement/requirement correlation and of a dynamic event tree generation method. The assessment of the system reliability depends on the determination of both the required performance distribution and the achieved performance distribution. The quantified correlation between requirement and achievement represents a comparison between two competing variables. It is demonstrated that this method is easily applicable and flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of dynamic reliability problem.

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A New Method for Assessing Dynamic Reliability for the Mid-loop Operation (원전의 부분충수운전에 대한 동적 신뢰도평가)

  • 제무성;박군철
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 1996
  • This paper presents a new approach for assessing the dynamic reliability in a complex system such as a nuclear power plant. The method is applied to a dynamic analysis of the potential accident sequences which may occur during mid-loop operation. Mid-loop operation is defined as an operation to make RCS water level below the top of the flow area of the hot legs at the junction with the reactor vessel for repairs and maintenance of steam generators and reactor coolant pumps for a specific time. The Idea behind this approach consists of both the use of the concept of the performance achievement/requirement correlation and of a dynamic event tree generation method. The assessment of the system reliability depends on the determination of both the required performance distribution and the achieved performance distribution. The quantified correlation between requirement and achievement represents a comparison between two competing variables. It is demonstrated that this method is easily applicable and flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of dynamic reliability problem.

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Predicting the Tritium Release Accident in a Nuclear Fusion Plant (원자핵 융합 발전소의 삼중수소 유출 사고 예측)

  • 양희중
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 1998
  • A methodology of the safety analysis on the fusion power plant is introduced. It starts with the understanding of the physics and engineering of the plant followed by the assessment of the tritium inventory and flow rate. We a, pp.y the probabilistic risk assessment. An event tree that explains the propagation of the accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is statistically equivalent so far as the parameter updating is concerned. We follow the Bayesian a, pp.oach where model parameters are treated as random variables. We briefly discuss the parameter updating scheme, and finally develop the methodology to obtain the predictive distribution of time to next severe accident.

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The Relationship between Unsafe Acts and Fall Accident of Workers Using ETA (ETA를 활용한 근로자의 불안전한 행동과 떨어짐 사고의 관계)

  • Jeong, Eunbeen;Choi, Jaewook;Lee, Chansik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2020
  • The large-scaled and high-rise construction structures in recent years have increased high place work, leading to an increase in falling accidents (hereinafter, "accidents"). The need for prediction and management of unsafe acts of workers at construction sites has been raised as unsafe acts of workers are identified as the main cause of industrial accidents. This research aims at deriving the improvement effect of unsafe acts by presenting the relationship between unsafe acts of workers and accidents at construction sites as a probability. Unsafe acts of workers were derived based on the analysis of accident cases. In addition, surveys were conducted to calculate the probability of occurrence of accidents caused by unsafe acts (hereinafter, 'accident probability'). The Event Tree Analysis (ETA) was utilized to confirm the final probability according to the combination of unsafe acts and improvement effect. The accident probability by unsafe act was found to be the highest for working after drinking (95.41%) and to be the lowest for equipment and machine utilization (65.70%). The accident probability according to a combination of unsafe acts was the highest when all of the unsafe acts were conducted (13.23%) and was the lowest when none of the unsafe acts were conducted (0.00%).

Frequence Analysis for City Gas Pipeline (도시가스 배관의 설비손상확률평가)

  • Park Kyo-Shik;Lee Jin-Han;Jo Young-Do;Park Jin-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.2 s.19
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    • pp.14-21
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    • 2003
  • Frequency analysis of city gas pipeline was studied and then the method to give frequencies of failure by the third-party digging, corrosion, ground movement, and equipment failure which were known to be the major cause of risk of city gas pipeline. The failure by the third-party digging was analyzed by fault tree analysis and the failure by corrosion was analyzed by applying equation calculating remaining strength with time. The failure by ground movement was evaluated by applying modified model which was induced through weighing factors with basic failure rate model. The failure rate of equipment was calculated with both generic and specific data

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