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Safety Analysis using bayesian approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 안전사고 예측기법)

  • Yang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2007
  • We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.

A New Dynamic Reliability Assessment for Mid-loop Operations in a Nuclear Power Plant

  • Jae, Moosung
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a dynamic reliability assessment methodology for use in the safety assessment of a complex system such as a nuclear power plant. The method is applied to a dynamic analysis of the potential accident sequences that may occur during mid-loop operation in a nuclear power plant. The idea behind this approach consists of both the use of the concept of the performance achievement/requirement correlation and of a dynamic event tree generation method. The assessment of the system reliability depends on the determination of both the required performance distribution and the achieved performance distribution. The quantified correlation between requirement and achievement represents a comparison between two competing variables. It is demonstrated that this method is easily applicable and flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of dynamic reliability problem.

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A New Method for Assessing Dynamic Reliability for the Mid-loop Operation (원전의 부분충수운전에 대한 동적 신뢰도평가)

  • 제무성;박군철
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 1996
  • This paper presents a new approach for assessing the dynamic reliability in a complex system such as a nuclear power plant. The method is applied to a dynamic analysis of the potential accident sequences which may occur during mid-loop operation. Mid-loop operation is defined as an operation to make RCS water level below the top of the flow area of the hot legs at the junction with the reactor vessel for repairs and maintenance of steam generators and reactor coolant pumps for a specific time. The Idea behind this approach consists of both the use of the concept of the performance achievement/requirement correlation and of a dynamic event tree generation method. The assessment of the system reliability depends on the determination of both the required performance distribution and the achieved performance distribution. The quantified correlation between requirement and achievement represents a comparison between two competing variables. It is demonstrated that this method is easily applicable and flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of dynamic reliability problem.

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Predicting the Tritium Release Accident in a Nuclear Fusion Plant (원자핵 융합 발전소의 삼중수소 유출 사고 예측)

  • 양희중
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 1998
  • A methodology of the safety analysis on the fusion power plant is introduced. It starts with the understanding of the physics and engineering of the plant followed by the assessment of the tritium inventory and flow rate. We a, pp.y the probabilistic risk assessment. An event tree that explains the propagation of the accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is statistically equivalent so far as the parameter updating is concerned. We follow the Bayesian a, pp.oach where model parameters are treated as random variables. We briefly discuss the parameter updating scheme, and finally develop the methodology to obtain the predictive distribution of time to next severe accident.

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A method for high-speed event processing in the real-time RFID middleware systems (실시간 RFID 미들웨어에서의 태그 데이터 고속 필터링 방법)

  • Park, Mi Sun;Kim, Yong Jin;Ryu, Minsoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.435-436
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    • 2009
  • RFID 시스템의 미들웨어는 태그에서 생성된 방대한 양의 데이터를 리더를 통해 전달받는다. RFID 미들웨어는 이러한 데이터를 정제하여 응용 애플리케이션에 전달하는 기능을 담당한다. 하지만 태그 데이터 정제 과정에서 발생되는 지연 시간은 RFID 미들웨의 응답성을 저하시킨다. 본 논문은 EPCglobal 의 RFID 미들웨어 표준인 ALE 에 의거하여 태그 데이터에 대한 다수의 필터링 조건들이 주어진 RFID 미들웨어 환경에서 실시간으로 수집되는 대용량의 태그에 대한 고속 필터링 엔진을 설계한다. 이를 위하여 Intermediate node 들이 key 값을 저장하는 Binary Search Tree 형태를 구성하여 태그를 필터링하는 방법을 제안한다. 결과로써 기존의 순차적인 RFID 데이터 필터링에 비해 고속의 필터링 성능을 보이며 특히 필터의 수가 증가할수록 필터링의 효율이 높아짐을 보인다.

Damage identification in suspension bridges under earthquake excitation using practical advanced analysis and hybrid machine-learning models

  • Van-Thanh Pham;Duc-Kien Thai;Seung-Eock Kim
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.695-711
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    • 2024
  • Suspension bridges are critical to urban transportation, but those in earthquake-prone areas face unique challenges. In the event of a moderate or strong earthquake, conventional linear theory-based approaches for detecting bridge damage become inadequate. This study presents an efficient method for identifying damage in suspension bridges using time history nonlinear inelastic analysis. A practical advanced analysis program is employed to model cable-supported bridges with low computational cost, generating a dataset for four hybrid models: PSO-DT, PSO-RF, PSO-XGB, and PSO-CGB. These models combine decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and categorical gradient boosting (CGB) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to capture nonlinear correlations between displacement response and damage. Principal component analysis reduces dataset dimensions, and PSO selects the optimal model. A numerical case study of a suspension bridge under simulated earthquake conditions identifies PSO-XGB as the best model for predicting stiffness reduction. The results demonstrate the method's robustness for nonlinear damage detection in suspension bridges under earthquake excitation.

Influence of Forest Management on the Facility of Cleansing Water Quality in Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis Watershed(III) -With a Special Reference to pH and Electrical Conductivity of Rainfall, Throughfall and Stemflow- (전나무림(林), 잣나무림(林) 유역(流域)에서 산림(山林)의 수질정화기능(水質淨化機能)에 미치는 산림시업(山林施業) 영향(影響)(III) -임외우(林外雨), 수관통과우(樹冠通過雨), 수간류(樹幹流)의 pH와 전기전도도(電氣傳導度)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Jeong, Yongho;Park, Jae Hyeon;Youn, Ho Joong;Kim, Kyong Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.2
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2000
  • This study aims to clarify the effect of forest management practices(thinning and pruning) on water quality to get the fundamental information on the facility of cleansing water quality after forest operation. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow were sampled at the study sites which consist of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis in Kwangnung Experimental Forest for 6 months from May 4, to November 1, 1999. Average tree height in the management sites increased by 0.5m more than that in the non-management sites in Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis, respectively. Increment of average D.B.H. at the management sites grew 3.5cm and 2.6cm more in Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis compared with that at non-management sites. Average pH of the total amount for the event in throughfall and stemflow was higher than that of throughfall and stemflow of the beginning of the event at the management and non-management sites. Average electrical conductivity of throughfall and stemflow at the beginning of the event was higher than that of the total amount for the event at management and non-management sites. Water qualities of throughfall and stemflow were buffered more by the management practice in both. The forest management may affect purification of water quality of throughfall and stemflow in Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis.

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Loading Characteristics of Non-Point Source Pollutants by Rainfall - Case Study with Cherry Tree Plot - (강우시 비점오염원의 오염부하 특성 - 벚나무 재배지를 대상으로 -)

  • Kang, Mee-A;Choi, Byoung-Woo;Yu, Jae-Jeong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.401-407
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to produce the characteristics of pollutant loads caused by a cherry tree plot as a nonpoint sources(NPS) unit in agricultural areas. The relationship between rainfall and runoff didn't show a good coefficient with 0.5. Despite precipitation amount was less than 20 mm, runoff occurred with $0.5\;m^3$ because of high rainfall intensity of 8.8 mm/hr. In contrast, runoff was not occurred when precipitation amount was 47.4 mm in one case. In that case the primal effect on runoff was not precipitation amount. Correlation between load of pollutants such as BOD, COD, TN and TP and runoff' volumes showed significantly positive values which were more than r = 0.92 for all pollutants except SS(r = 0.71). SS could be a proper factor for estimating pollutant loads of BOD, COD, TN and TP because of a high correlation more than r = 0.73 between SS load and pollutant loads of BOD, COD, TN and TP. Both Organics and nutrient pollutants could be reduced if we control SS in runoff. The highest concentration of TN was detected in the event which was affected by fertilization activities directly. Therefore fertilization must be considered as a function of impact parameters on TN load in agricultural areas.

The Relationship between Unsafe Acts and Fall Accident of Workers Using ETA (ETA를 활용한 근로자의 불안전한 행동과 떨어짐 사고의 관계)

  • Jeong, Eunbeen;Choi, Jaewook;Lee, Chansik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2020
  • The large-scaled and high-rise construction structures in recent years have increased high place work, leading to an increase in falling accidents (hereinafter, "accidents"). The need for prediction and management of unsafe acts of workers at construction sites has been raised as unsafe acts of workers are identified as the main cause of industrial accidents. This research aims at deriving the improvement effect of unsafe acts by presenting the relationship between unsafe acts of workers and accidents at construction sites as a probability. Unsafe acts of workers were derived based on the analysis of accident cases. In addition, surveys were conducted to calculate the probability of occurrence of accidents caused by unsafe acts (hereinafter, 'accident probability'). The Event Tree Analysis (ETA) was utilized to confirm the final probability according to the combination of unsafe acts and improvement effect. The accident probability by unsafe act was found to be the highest for working after drinking (95.41%) and to be the lowest for equipment and machine utilization (65.70%). The accident probability according to a combination of unsafe acts was the highest when all of the unsafe acts were conducted (13.23%) and was the lowest when none of the unsafe acts were conducted (0.00%).

Big Data Analysis for Strategic Use of Urban Brands: Case Study Seoul city brand "I SEOUL U" (도시 브랜드의 전략적 활용을 위한 빅데이터 분석 : 서울시 도시 브랜드 "I SEOUL U" 사례)

  • Lim, Haewen
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.197-213
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    • 2022
  • In this study, text mining analysis was performed on online big data for recognition and assessment of urban brand I Seoul U. To this end, TEXTOM, a processing program for data acquisition and analysis was used, and the 'I SEOUL U' keyword was selected as an analysis keyword. Keyword analysis shows the keywords associated with I Seoul U to be as follows: First, as a business and marketing term, keywords include pop-up store, gallery, co-branding, (festival, etc.), commodities, private companies and online. Second, as an event-related term, keywords include Han River, tree-planting day, tree planting, Hongdae, Christmas, Mapo, Jung-gu, Sejong University, and festival. Third, as a promotional term, keywords include robotics engineer Dr. Dennis Hong, Government, Art and Korea. In the N Gram analysis, as the city brand of Seoul, I Seoul U, in the public interest, was found to contribute to the commercial activities of private companies. In connection-oriented analysis, business and marketing, events, and promotions have been derived as categories. In matrix analysis, it was found that the products of the pop-up store are mainly developed, and products in the form of co-branding were being developed. In the topic modeling, a total of 10 topics were extracted and needs for commercial utilization and information for event festivals were mostly found.