• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation of meteorological model

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Development of Real-Time River Flow Forecasting Model with Data Assimilation Technique (자료동화 기법을 연계한 실시간 하천유량 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to develop real-time river flow forecast model by linking continuous rainfall-runoff model with ensemble Kalman filter technique. Andong dam basin is selected as study area and the model performance is evaluated for two periods, 2006. 7.1~8.18 and 2007. 8.1~9.30. The model state variables for data assimilation are defined as soil water content, basin storage and channel storage. This model is designed so as to be updated the state variables using measured inflow data at Andong dam. The analysing result from the behavior of the state variables, predicted state variable as simulated discharge is updated 74% toward measured one. Under the condition of assuming that the forecasted rainfall is equal to the measured one, the model accuracy with and without data assimilation is analyzed. The model performance of the former is better than that of the latter as much as 49.6% and 33.1% for 1 h-lead time during the evaluation period, 2006 and 2007. The real-time river flow forecast model using rainfall-runoff model linking with data assimilation process can show better forecasting result than the existing methods using rainfall-runoff model only in view of the results so far achieved.

Evaluation of Changesin the Physical Characteristics of Raindrops Under a Canopy in Central Korea (나무 아래 빗방울(雨滴)의 물리적 특성변화 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Kwan;Kim, Min Seok;Yang, Dong Yoon;Lim, Young Shin
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 2016
  • To evaluate the changes in the physical characteristics of open rainfall related to canopy effects and rainfall intensity in Korea, the terminal velocity of raindrops and drop size distributions(DSD) were continuously measured by an optical-laser disdrometer in an open site(Op) and in two forest stands(Th1: Larix leptolepis, Th2: Pinus koraiensis) during five rainfall events in 2008. The terminal velocity, DSD and two forms of kinetic energy(KE, $Jm^{-2}$ $mm^{-1}$; KER, $Jm^{-2}$ $h^{-1}$) of open rainfall drops were determined and were compared with those of throughfall drops under two different canopy heights. The effects of the canopy and rainfall intensity, together with wind speed, on the changes in drop size and kinetic energy of throughfall were evaluated. Throughfall drops were larger than open rainfall drops. The distribution of terminal velocities for the drop sizes measured at Th2 was lower than that at Op; however, at Th1 the distribution was similar to that at Op. The total kinetic energy of throughfall at Th1 and Th2 was higher than the total kinetic energy of open rainfall, and the kinetic energy distribution for the drop sizes wassimilar to the drop size distribution. The observed throughfall-KER at Th1 was lower than an estimate previously produced using a model. The overestimation from the modeled value at Th1 was likely to be due to overestimated values of a square root transformation of fall height and its coefficient in the model because the distributions of terminal velocity for the drop size measured at Th1 were similar to those of open rainfall.

Estimation of the genetic milk yield parameters of Holstein cattle under heat stress in South Korea

  • Lee, SeokHyun;Do, ChangHee;Choy, YunHo;Dang, ChangGwon;Mahboob, Alam;Cho, Kwanghyun
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.334-340
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    • 2019
  • Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the genetic components of daily milk yield and to re-rank bulls in South Korea by estimated breeding value (EBV) under heat stress using the temperature-humidity index (THI). Methods: This study was conducted using 125,312 monthly test-day records, collected from January 2000 to February 2017 for 19,889 Holstein cows from 647 farms in South Korea. Milk production data were collected from two agencies, the Dairy Cattle Genetic Improvement Center and the Korea Animal Improvement Association, and meteorological data were obtained from 41 regional weather stations using the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) installed throughout South Korea. A random regression model using the THI was applied to estimate genetic parameters of heat tolerance based on the test-day records. The model included herd-year-season, calving age, and days-in-milk as fixed effects, as well as heat tolerance as an additive genetic effect, permanent environmental effect, and direct additive and permanent environmental effect. Results: Below the THI threshold (${\leq}72$; no heat stress), the variance in heat tolerance was zero. However, the heat tolerance variance began to increase as THI exceeded the threshold. The covariance between the genetic additive effect and the heat tolerance effect was -0.33. Heritability estimates of milk yield ranged from 0.111 to 0.176 (average: 0.128). Heritability decreased slightly as THI increased, and began to increase at a THI of 79. The predicted bull EBV ranking varied with THI. Conclusion: We conclude that genetic evaluation using the THI function could be useful for selecting bulls for heat tolerance in South Korea.

The Energy Performance & Economy Efficiency Evaluation of Microturbine Installed in Hospital buildings (대형병원에서 마이크로터빈 이용한 열병합시스템 에너지성능 및 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, Byung-Soo;Gil, Young-Wok;Hong, Won-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2009
  • Distributed generation(DG) of combined cooling, heat, and power(CCHP)has been gaining momentum in recent year as efficient, secure alternative for meeting increasing energy demands. This paper presents the energy performance of microturbine CCHP system equipped with an absorption chiller by modelling it in hospital building. The orders of study were as following. 1)The list and schedule of energy consumption equipment in hospital were examined such as heating and cooling machine, light etc. 2) Annual report of energy usage and monitoring data were examined as heating, cooling, DHW, lighting, etc. 3) The weather data in 2007 was used for simulation and was arranged by meteorological office data in Daejeon. 4) Reference simulation model was built by comparison of real energy consumption and simulation result by TRNSYS and ESP-r. The energy consumption pattern of building were analyzed by simulation model and energy reduction rate were calculated over the cogeneration. As a result of this study, power generation efficiency of turbine was about 30[%] after installing micro gas turbine and lighting energy as well as total electricity consumption can be reduced by 40[%]. If electricity energy and waste heat in turbine are used, 56[%] of heating energy and 67[%] of cooling energy can be reduced respectively, and total system efficiency can be increased up to 70[%].

Optimizing Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) based on Machine Learning for Rainfall Impact Forecasting (호우 영향예보를 위한 머신러닝 기반의 수문학적 정량강우예측(HQPF) 최적화 방안)

  • Lee, Han-Su;Jee, Yongkeun;Lee, Young-Mi;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.1053-1065
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the prediction technology of Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was improved by optimizing the weather predictors used as input data for machine learning. Results comparison was conducted using bias and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which are predictive accuracy verification indicators, based on the heavy rain case on August 21, 2021. By comparing the rainfall simulated using the improved HQPF and the observed accumulated rainfall, it was revealed that all HQPFs (conventional HQPF and improved HQPF 1 and HQPF 2) showed a decrease in rainfall as the lead time increased for the entire grid region. Hence, the difference from the observed rainfall increased. In the accumulated rainfall evaluation due to the reduction of input factors, compared to the existing HQPF, improved HQPF 1 and 2 predicted a larger accumulated rainfall. Furthermore, HQPF 2 used the lowest number of input factors and simulated more accumulated rainfall than that projected by conventional HQPF and HQPF 1. By improving the performance of conventional machine learning despite using lesser variables, the preprocessing period and model execution time can be reduced, thereby contributing to model optimization. As an additional advanced method of HQPF 1 and 2 mentioned above, a simulated analysis of the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) ensemble member and low pressure, one of the observed meteorological factors, was analyzed. Based on the results of this study, if we select for the positively performing ensemble members based on the heavy rain characteristics of Korea or apply additional weights differently for each ensemble member, the prediction accuracy is expected to increase.

Evaluation of Climatological Mean Surface Winds over Korean Waters Simulated by CORDEX-EA Regional Climate Models (CORDEX-EA 지역기후모형이 모사한 한반도 주변해 기후평균 표층 바람 평가)

  • Choi, Wonkeun;Shin, Ho-Jeong;Jang, Chan Joo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2019
  • Surface winds over the ocean influence not only the climate change through air-sea interactions but the coastal erosion through the changes in wave height and direction. Thus, demands on a reliable projection of future changes in surface winds have been increasing in various fields. For the future projections, climate models have been widely used and, as a priori, their simulations of surface wind are required to be evaluated. In this study, we evaluate the climatological mean surface winds over the Korean Waters simulated by five regional climate models participating in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia (EA), an international regional climate model inter-comparison project. Compared with the ERA-interim reanalysis data, the CORDEX-EA models, except for HadGEM3-RA, produce stronger wind both in summer and winter. The HadGEM3-RA underestimates the wind speed and inadequately simulate the spatial distribution especially in summer. This summer wind error appears to be coincident with mean sea-level pressure in the North Pacific. For wind direction, all of the CORDEX-EA models simulate the well-known seasonal reversal of surface wind similar to the ERA-interim. Our results suggest that especially in summer, large-scale atmospheric circulation, downscaled by regional models with spectral nudging, significantly affect the regional surface wind on its pattern and strength.

A statistical prediction for concentrations of Manganese in the ambient air (통계적 모형을 이용한 대기중 망간 농도 예측)

  • Kwon, Hye Ji;Kim, Yongku
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.577-586
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    • 2016
  • Hazardous air pollution caused by heavy metals in the air is at a serious level. Although manganese(Mn), one of the heavy metals, is a non-carcinogenic substance, it has a harmful influence on the human body. It is partially measured because automatic monitoring technologies have not yet be fully established. We introduced a statistical model for the daily concentration of manganese. Incorporating a linkage between Mn and meteorology, the proposed model is formulated in way to identify meteorological effects and to allow for seasonal trends, enabling not only accurate measurement of manganese concentration, but also information about the evaluation on a Hazard Quotient (non-cancer risk).

A Study on Process Integrated Innovation System for a LNG Industry (휘발성 유기화합물의 배출량 산정 및 관리 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Yi Jonghyeop;Park Hyeonsoo;Lee Sunwoo;Kim Hwayong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.2 s.19
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2003
  • Abstract This paper presents new emission mechanism and emission estimation model in volatile organic compounds(VOCs) emission sources. Also classifies applicable emission reduction techniques and presents new economical evaluation method for each techniques. We ultimately developed VEER(VOCs Emission Estimation and Reduction) software, which is backed by above mentioned model, emission source DB, Chemical properties DB, meteorological DB, and emission factor DB. With VEER, users in enterprise, central government and local self-governing body can get reliable emission results easily, and choose suitable emission reduction techniques.

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Assessment of Future River Environment considering Climate Change and Basin Runoff Characteristics (기후변화와 유역유출특성을 고려한 미래하천환경 평가)

  • Ahn, Jung Min;Im, Toe Hyo;Lee, In Jung;Cheon, Se Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.269-283
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    • 2014
  • This study evaluated the environmental impact based on watershed characteristics and climate change using RCP climate change scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Future dam inflow was estimated by the SWAT model. Dam safety evaluation and downstream duration curve analysis was performed using HEC-ResSim model. Trends of water quality was analyzed through seasonal-Kendall Test using existing water quality observation data. Release discharge and tributary runoff derived SWAT and HEC-ResSim models applied to Qual2E and the future change in water quality trends were analyzed. Integrated environmental review watershed following techniques will be able to obtain the river environment management system and environmental issues such as climate change, new guidelines for preemptively response will be provided.

The Analysis of Suspended Sediment Load of Donghyang and Cheoncheon Basin using GIS-based SWAT Model (GIS 기반 SWAT 모델을 이용한 동향·천천유역의 부유사량 분석)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Kim, Yu-Ri;Ye, Lyeong;Lee, Eul-Rae
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.82-98
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    • 2009
  • This study applied SWAT model to analyze suspended sediment load that is influence on the high density turbid water in Donghyang and Cheoncheon basin, which are located in the upstream of Yongdam Dam. GIS data such as DEM, land cover map and soil map, and meteorological data were used as the input data of SWAT model. And the rating curve equation and Q-SS equation of Donghyang and Cheoncheon gauge station were applied as the measured values of them. As the result of flowout, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (EI) of model calibration showed high as 0.87 and 0.87 at Donghyang gauge station, and the $R^2$ and EI of model validation were high as 0.95 at Cheoncheon gauge station. Also, as the result of suspended sediment load, the $R^2$ and EI of model calibration were high as 0.77 and 0.76 at Donghyang gauge station, and the $R^2$ and EI of model validation marked high as 0.867 and 0.80 at Cheoncheon gauge station. It is considered that the suspended sediment load of 2003 showed the highest due to rainfall amounts and rainfall intensity in using SWAT model. The results of suspended sediment modeled in this study can be applied to the decision-making support data for the evaluation of soil erosion possibility and turbid water potential in the management of reservoir.

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