• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation of Value at Risk

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The Evaluation of the Net Present Value and the Derivation of the Internal Rate of Return with the Alternatives (대체안(代替案)의 순현재가치(純現在價値) 평가(評價)와 내부수익률(內部收益率) 유도(誘導)에 대한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Sang-Min;Lee, Geun-Hui
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.82-88
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    • 1989
  • This paper has provided a systematic technique, the evaluation of the distribution with the NPV and the derivation of the IRR in the investment alternatives, for the cost estimating analysts, The proposals of investment alternatives are included the venture capital under risk and probabilities at each events, within the cash inflows are occuring at random timing. Therefore, we have considered the followings ; 1) the first cash outflow is deterministic, 2) the cash inflows are random variables with known distributions, 3) the lengths of the time intervals between the cash inflows are independently distributed and independent of the cash inflows. In this paper, the first two moments of the distribution, the Laplace Transforms and the convolutions are computed for both independent cash inflows and mutually exclusive alternatives as in the case of quite correlated cash inflows.

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A Study on the evaluation of the safety of berthing maneuver by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (계측분석법에 의한 선박 접리안 안전성의 평가방안)

  • 구자윤;이철영;우병구;전상엽
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.33-47
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    • 1994
  • On developing port system, the performance tests of system in relation to ship maneuver generally consists of the three parts: the channel transit, the manoeuvring in a turning basin and the docking/undocking. The quantifications of risk of an accident has priviously been difficult due to the low occurrence of accidents relative to the number of transits. Additionally, accident statistics could not be related port system because of the large number of factors contributing to the accident. such as human error, equipment failure, visibility, light, traffic. etc. In case of the channel transit, "Relative Risk Factor(RRF)" or "Relative Risk Factor for Meeting Traffic" was proposed as the as the measures derived to quantify the relative risk of accident by M.W.Smith. This factor measure the tracking performance, the turning performance and the passing performance at meeting traffic. On the other hand, the safety of berthing maneuver is not measured with a few evaluating factors as controlled due to complex controllabilites such as steering, engine, side thrusters or tugs. This work, therefore, aims to propose the evaluating measure by the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). Six experimental scenarios were establised under the various environmental conditions as independent variables. In every simulation, the difficulty of maneuver was scored by captain and compared with AHP scores. The results show almost same and from which the weights of eight evaluating factors could be fixed. Additionally, the limit value of relative factor in berthing safety to six scenarios could be estimated to 0.11.e estimated to 0.11.

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Field Application and Evaluation of the ACGIH Hand Activity Level TLV® (ACGIH Hand Activity Level TLV®의 현장 적용 및 평가)

  • Kim, Boo Wook;Woo, Ji Hoon;Kang, Dongmug;Shin, Yong Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2006
  • The Strain Index(SI) has been commonly used to evaluate the musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs) of upper extremities. Recently, the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists(ACGIH) adopted the Threshold Limit Value for hand activity level (HAL TLV) focused on the hand, wrist, and forearm. The MSDs risks of 37 repetitive works conducted at an automobile climate control system manufacturing factory were evaluated using both the HAL TLV and the SI, and the results by two methods were compared. Also, measured repetitive frequencies of upper limbs joint were mesured using electromyogram and electrogoniometer. The evaluation results of the HAL were related with the repetitive frequency data of upper limbs joint by electrogoniometer, and the NPF was related with %MVC of ECU. The evaluation result of HAL TLV was highly related with the SI score(r=0.66, p<0.01). Of total 37 tasks, 25 tasks(67.6%) were exceeded the TLV and 34 tasks(91.9%) exceeded the SI limit. Although there was a high relationship between the HAL TLV and SI score, the HAL TLV underestimated the risk in comparison with the SI. The correlation coefficients(r) between the HAL TLV data and the repetitive frequency of upper limbs joint were 0.45~0.55(p<0.01). The MSD symptoms was significantly different between high risk groups and low risk groups evaluated by HAL TLV(p<0.01), but was not different between two groups by SI. In conclusion, the HAL TLV is a proper tool for repetitive works.

Identification of Patients with Microscopic Hematuria who are at Greater Risk for the Presence of Bladder Tumors Using a Dedicated Questionnaire and Point of Care Urine Test - A Study by the Members of Association of Urooncology, Turkey

  • Turkeri, Levent;Mangir, Naside;Gunlusoy, Bulent;Yildirim, Asif;Baltaci, Sumer;Kaplan, Mustafa;Bozlu, Murat;Mungan, Aydin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.15
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    • pp.6283-6286
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    • 2014
  • In patients with microscopic hematuria there is a need for better identification of those who are at greater risk of harbouring bladder tumors. The RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire has a strong correlation with the presence of urothelial carcinoma (UC) of the bladder and in combination with other available tests may help identify patients who require detailed clinical investigations due to increased risk of presence of bladder tumors. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire together with NMP-22(R) (BladderChek(R)) as a point-of-care urine test in predicting the presence of bladder tumors in patients presenting with microscopic hematuria as the sole finding. In this multi-institutional prospective evaluation of 303 consecutive patients without a history of urothelial carcinoma (UC), RisikoCheck(C) risk group assessment, urinary tract imaging and cystourethroscopy as well as urine cytology and Nuclear Matrix Protein-22 (NMP-22 BladderChek) testing were performed where available. The sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive values (PPV) for the risk adapted approach were calculated. All patients underwent cystoscopy, and tumors were detected in 18 (5.9%). Urine cytology and NMP-22 was positive for malignancy in 9 (3.2%) and 12 (7.5%) of patients, respectively. A total of 43 (14%) patients were in the high risk group according to the RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire. The sensitivity and specificity of the questionnaire in detecting a bladder tumor was 61.5 % and 84.0 % in the high risk group. In patients with either a positive NMP-22 test or high risk category RisikoCheck(C), 23.6% had bladder tumors with a corresponding sensitivity of 54.2% and specificity of 88.6%. If both tests were negative only 3.3% of the patients had bladder tumors. The results of our study suggest that the efficacy of diagnostic evaluation of patients with microscopic hematuria may be further enhanced by combining RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire with NMP-22.

New Strategy of Potential-Based Customer Management: A Case of S-Card's ECI Approach (추정소득 분석을 통한 S카드사의 잠재가치 기반의 고객관리 전략)

  • Park, Jin-Soo;Chang, Nam-Sik
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.129-147
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    • 2007
  • At the time the local credit-card companies plunged into a liquidity crisis in 2002, S-Card was urged to take into account the estimated customer income (ECI) to enhance its customer credit evaluation function for the first time in Korean financial industry. Before this new attempt by S-Card, most credit-card companies including S-Card had performed a customer's credit evaluation based on the customer's behavioral factors such as the amount of purchase on credit, debt payment, and financial history that is provided from the Credit Bureau. However, this approach failed to measure customer's potential value which is one of the major factors in judging the customer's ability to pay, and hence, led to difficulties in risk management. The purpose of this case study is to present the better approach to sophisticated risk management for financial firms in Korea by reviewing S-Card's process of customer income estimation and its application to risk management.

Evaluation of The Hygrothermal Performance by Wall Layer Component of Wooden Houses Using WUFI Simulation Program (WUFI 시뮬레이션 프로그램을 이용한 목조주택 벽체 레이어 구성에 따른 hygrothermal 성능 평가)

  • Kang, Yujin;Kim, Sumin
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2016
  • Thermal performance of wooden houses used by building materials effectively contributing to building energy saving has been improved. However, the performance was decreased to the condensation and mould growth from exterior wall because the moisture control was difficult to high insulation and airtightness. Therefore, the hygrothermal performance of exterior wall, that selected 5 types of wooden houses, evaluated using the hygrothermal simulation program: heat and moisture behavior, condensation and mould growth risk. Wooden houses were selected Rural houses standard plans '10 and '14, $2^{{\prime}{\prime}}{\times}6^{{\prime}{\prime}}$ type, EIFS and wood-based passive house. And the wall A, B, C, D and E were determined by layer component of each wall. The U-value of exterior wall are 0.171, 0.172, 0.221, 0.150, $0.079W/m^2K$. The OSB absolute water content of the wall A and C was exceeds the reference value of 20%, and it was confirmed that condensation occur at insulation material inner surface through the condensation evaluation in the winter. The wall D and E showed excellent results with condensation and water content evaluation compared to others. However, mould growth risk assessment in all five types of wall had have risk. We were determined that hygrothermal performance difference of exterior wall occur the difference in the layer structure rather than in thermal performance.

Quantiflcation of Human Exposure and Analysis of PCBs in Contaminated Some Site (특정지역에서 토양중 PCB의 분석과 인체노출량평가)

  • 이효민;박송자;김명수;윤은경;최시내;김선태;박종세
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.13 no.1_2
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    • pp.49-54
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    • 1997
  • PCBs are classified as B2 (Probable human carcinogen) based on the induction of hepatocellular carcinomas in rats and mice from IRIS (Integrated Risk Information System). About 20 years ago, PCBs were phased out for electrical use in Korea, but PCBs were continuously used in the other field. Lately, there has been increasing concern on possible effects of contaminated soil to the other environment and human health. The purpose of this study is to determine PCBs level in soil at some site and to assess the human exposure doses according to exposure routes for people living within sites which expected to be exposed to PCBs. Pollution level of PCBs on the site was monitored using gas liquid chromatography. To assess the transport of PCBs in soil to plant and to air, various transfer factors(diffusion coefficient, bioconcentration factor etc.) were considered in simple calculations. To calculate the residential exposure doses by routes, some equations were considered using assumption value, which define inhalation, ingestion (soil, plant) and derreal uptake pathway. Computated results will be used as risk assessment information for human health evaluation on contaminated soil.

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The effect of the cariview test and professional brushing training on the reduction of PHP index of dental hygiene students (Cariview test와 전문가 칫솔질 교육이 치위생(학)과 신입생의 PHP index 감소에 미치는 효과)

  • Kim, Youn-Hwa;Kim, Yu-Geun;Yoo, Jin-Ah;Park, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.993-1001
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to examine the effectiveness in oral health promotion through oral health education for freshmen students of the dental hygiene department. Methods: To verify its effectiveness, research was conducted on 74 freshmen of the dental hygiene department by the evaluation of DMFT index, PHP index, and Cariview test (2015-2016). Results: The analysis of the test results using Cariview equipment shows a categorization of low risk group consisting of 10 students (13.5%), middle risk group consisting of 47 students (63.5%), and a high risk group consisting of 17 students (22.9%). DT index according to the number of daily tooth brushing by <2 is DT index average score higher and in such a case, statistics are considered meaningful (p<0.01). Oral health state at DMFT index of low risk group according to Cariview risk group for an analysis is lower than both the middle risk group and the high risk group (p<0.001). Conclusions: A review of the effect of the promotion of oral health through oral health education on the behavior change rather than of Cariview test and value of dental plaque through tooth brushing method was conducted.

Validation of Adult Fall Assessment Scale Korean Version for Adult Patients in General Hospitals in Korea (한국형 낙상 위험 사정도구의 타당성 평가연구)

  • Choi, Eun Hee;Ko, Mi Suk;Lee, Shin Ae;Park, Jung Ha
    • Journal of Korean Clinical Nursing Research
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to test the predictive validity of the Fall Assessment Scale-Korean version (FAS-K) and to find the most appropriate cutoff score to screen high-risk fall groups in adult patients in general hospitals in Korea. Methods: We performed a prospective evaluation study in medical and surgical ward patients at two major general hospitals in Seoul. Data were collected from Nov. 1, 2018 to Feb. 28, 2019, nurses performed 651 observation series. The researcher measured the fall risk assessment score by applying FAS-K, MFS (Morse Fall Scale), and JHFRAT (Johns Hopkins Hospital Fall Risk Assessment tool) to the patients twice a week between 10 am and 12 noon. Data were analyzed using Pearson's corelation coefficients, and the sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the three tools. Results: The FAS-K was positively correlated with the MFS (r=.70, p<.001) and the JHFRAT (r=.82, p<.001). According to the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis of the FAS-K, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative prediction values were 85.3%, 49.4%, 8.5%, and 98.4%, respectively, when the FAS-K score was 4. Therefore, the cut-off score of the FAS-K to identify groups with high fall risk was 4. Conclusion: The FAS-K is a valid tool for measuring fall risk in adult inpatients. In addition, the FAS-K score, 4, can be used to identify high-risk fall groups and know specific points in time to provide active interventions to prevent falls.

Development of Impact-based Heat Health Warning System Based on Ensemble Forecasts of Perceived Temperature and its Evaluation using Heat-Related Patients in 2019 (인지온도 확률예보기반 폭염-건강영향예보 지원시스템 개발 및 2019년 온열질환자를 이용한 평가)

  • Kang, Misun;Belorid, Miloslav;Kim, Kyu Rang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.195-207
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to introduce the structure of the impact-based heat health warning system on 165 counties in South Korea developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. This system was developed using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a human physiology-based thermal comfort index, and the Local ENSemble prediction system for the probability forecasts. Also, A risk matrix proposed by the World Meteorological Organization was employed for the impact-based forecasts of this system. The threshold value of the risk matrix was separately set depending on regions. In this system, the risk level was issued as four levels (GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED) for first, second, and third forecast lead-day (LD1, LD2, and LD3). The daily risk level issued by the system was evaluated using emergency heat-related patients obtained at six cities, including Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, for LD1 to LD3. The high-risks level occurred more consistently in the shorter lead time (LD3 → LD1) and the performance (rs) was increased from 0.42 (LD3) to 0.45 (LD1) in all cities. Especially, it showed good performance (rs = 0.51) in July and August, when heat stress is highest in South Korea. From an impact-based forecasting perspective, PTmax is one of the most suitable temperature indicators for issuing the health risk warnings by heat in South Korea.