• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation of Value at Risk

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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DIAGNOSIS OF MICROMETASTASIS IN LYMPH NODE AND CLINICAL EVALUATION OF PROGNOSTIC FACTOR OF ORAL SCC USING RT-PCR AND IMMUNOHISTOCHEMISTRY FOR CYTOKERATIN (Cytokeratin의 RT-PCR 및 면역조직화학적 분석을 이용한 구강편평세포암종의 임파절 미세전이 진단과 예후인자 효용성 평가)

  • Park, Sung-Jin;Lee, Won-Deok;Lim, Ku-Young;Kang, Jin-Han;Myung, Hoon;Lee, Jong-Ho;Kim, Myung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: The lymph node status assessed by conventional histological examination is the most important prognostic factor in patients undergoing surgery for oral squamous cell carcinoma. The presence of lymph node metastasis has a strong adverse impact on patient survival even after extended radical resection. Despite these findings, tumour recurrence is not rare after surgery, even when histological examination shows no lymph node metastasis. Recently, molecular-genetically and immunohistochemically demonstrated micrometastasis to the lymph nodes has been shown to have a significant adverse influence on survival in patients with squamous cell carcinoma and histologically negative nodes. The present study sought to determine the incidence and clarify the clinical significance of molecular-genetically and immunohistochemically demonstrated nodal micrometastases and to correlate these data with the stage of oral cancer. Methods: Lymph nodes systematically removed from 71 patients who underwent curative resection between 1998 and 2003 with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma were examined molecular-genetically to detect cytokeratin 5 mRNA with RT-PCR and immunohistochemically to detect cells that stained positively for cytokeratins with the monoclonal antibody cocktail AE1/AE3. The postoperative course and survival rates were compared among patients with and without micrometastases, after numerical classification of overt metastatic nodes. Results: micrometastases were detected in 43(60%) of 71 patients by RT-PCR and 26(36%) of 71 patients by immunohistochemistry. By RT-PCR analysis, patients exhibiting a positive band for CK 5 mRNA had a significantly worse prognosis than those were RT-PCR negative. By immunohistochemistry, the presence of micrometastasis did not predict patient outcome. Conclusion: Micrometastases detected by RT-PCR may be of clinical value in identifying patients who may be at high risk for recurrence and who are therefore likely to benefit from systemic adjuvant therapy.

Recent Advances in Cancer Diagnosis: On an Overview of Diagnostic Cytopathologic Modalities and Ancillary Techniques (세포병리학적 기초에 의한 암진단의 발전: 진단방법과 보조기법)

  • Kim, Ki-Tai;Ham, Eui-Keun
    • The Korean Journal of Cytopathology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1996
  • From the concepts of cellular pathology and of exfoliative cytology, as elucidated by Virchow and Papanicolaou respectively in the late 19th and early 20th century, have evolved the primary methods for the diagnosis of cancer today. From Papanicolaou's concept of exfoliative cytology developed fine needle aspiration biopsy in the early 1960's, this has become a major diagnostic procedure and has contributed to a significant reduction in open biopsies and, therefore, to medical cost-effectiveness immunobiochemical techniques provided us with a supplement to cancer diagnosis in the 1980's. The immunoperoxidase method, using monoclonal antibodies, is applied primarily as an ancillary measure to elucidate the nature of cancers The availability of specific monoclonal antibodies has greatly facilitated the identification of cell products or surface markers. For example, antibodies directed against intermediate filaments have proved to be of value in determining the histogenesis oi poorly differentiated neoplasms. Tumor markers may serve as biochemical indicators of the presence of a neoplasm. They can be detected In plasma and other body fluids. Their concentration can be applied as a diagnostic test, for monitoring the clinical course of known cancer, and as a screening measure to detect certain cancers in a population at risk. Flow cytometry is a useful tool for distinguishing several cell characteristics, such as the immunophenotype of leukemia-lymphoma cells, the DNA content of neoplastic cells, and cell proliferation rate. Molecular biologic techniques provided a giant step for the management of cancer patients encompassing diagnosis, prognostic evaluation, and therapy. Nucleic acid hybridization techniques are utilized as Southern, Northern, and dot blots and in situ hybridization. Molecular biology and its techniques may bring a blight new horizon for understanding cancer biology and in designing therapy on the basis of gene manipulation.

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Application of Integrated Modelling Framework Consisted of Delft3D and HABITAT for Habitat Suitability Assessment (생물서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 Delft3D와 HABITAT 모델의 연계 적용)

  • Lim, Hyejung;Na, Eun Hye;Jeon, Hyeong Cheol;Song, Hojin;Yoo, Hojun;Hwang, Soon Hong;Ryu, Hui-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.217-228
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    • 2021
  • This paper discusses a methodology where an integrated modelling framework is used to quantify the risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. To achieve this purpose, a tool comprising the Delft3D and HABITAT model, was applied in the Yeongsan river. Delft3D effectively simulated the operational condition and flow of weirs in river. In accuracy evaluation of the Delft3D-FLOW, the Bias, Pbias, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Index of Agreement (IOA) were used, and the result was evaluated as grade above 'Satisfactory'. The HABITAT calculated Habitat Suitability Value (HSV) for the following eight species: mammal, fish, aquatic plant, and benthic macroinvertebrate. An Area was defined as a suitable habitat if the HSV was larger than 0.5. HABITAT was judged accurately by measuring the Correct Classification rate (CCR) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For benthic macroinvertebrate, the CCR and AUC were 77% and 0.834, respectively, at thresholds of 0.017 and 4 inds/m2 for HSV and individuals per unit area. This meant that the HABITAT model accurately predicted the appearance of the benthic macroinvertebrates by approximately 77% and that the probability of false alarms was also very low. As a result of evaluating the suitability of habitats, in the Yeongsan river, if the annual "lowest level" (Seungchon weir: 2.5 EL.m/ Juksan weir: -1.35 EL.m) was maintained, the average habitat improvement effect of 6.5%P compared to the 'reference' scenario was predicted. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the integrated modelling framework for habitat suitability assessment is able to support the remedy aquatic ecological management.

Relationship between Ischemia-Modified Albumin and the Healing Period of Amputation Wounds in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus Following Non-traumatic Below-Knee Amputation (당뇨족으로 인한 비외상성 하퇴부 절단 환자에서 시행한 절단부 창상의 치유 기간과 Ischemia-Modified Albumin과의 관계)

  • Si Young Heo;Myoung Jin Lee;Hyeon jun Kim;Sung Bin Byun
    • Journal of Korean Foot and Ankle Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.49-54
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The present study examined the effectiveness of the preoperative ischemia-modified albumin (IMA) levels in predicting the healing period of amputation wounds in patients with diabetes mellitus following a non-traumatic below-knee amputation (BKA). Materials and Methods: This study enrolled 41 diabetic foot ulcer patients who underwent BKA at the authors' hospital diabetic foot center from April 2016 to April 2022. Among the 41 patients, 29 (70.7%) were male and 12 (29.3%) were female. Their mean age was 64.54±11.38 years (41~81 years). The mean follow-up period was 19.48±5.56 weeks (14~48 weeks) after BKA. The patients were divided into two groups (high IMA group and normal IMA group), which evaluated the healing period, wound dehiscence, and revision operation rate using a Fisher's exact test and Mann-Whitney U test. Three orthopedic surgeons performed stump wound evaluation, and they were evaluated as healing when all sutures were fused without oozing. Results: Thirty patients (73.2%) (group A) showed a high level of IMA (median: 91.2 U/mL), and 11 (26.8%) patients (group B) showed a normal range of IMA (median: 82.7 U/mL). In group A, the median period for wound healing took 1.4 weeks longer, which was significant (p=0.001). No statistical relationship was observed between wound dehiscence, revision operation rate, and IMA value. There was no correlation between the other risk factors (estimated glomerular filtration rate, HbA1c) and the wound healing period. Conclusion: Although there was a limitation in using IMA as the sole factor to predict the healing period of amputation wounds in patients after BKA, this study revealed a significant positive correlation between IMA and the period of stump healing after BKA. Therefore, the preoperative IMA levels may help predict the period of stump healing after BKA.

A Study on the Elaboration of Request for Proposal of Localization Parts using AHP method (AHP 기법을 적용한 부품국산화 제안요청서 정교화 연구)

  • Song, Hyeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to elaborate the request for proposal (RFP) for the localization parts development support project of core parts carried out by the Defense Agency for Technology and Quality. The RFP is the most important document throughout the localization parts project, including project announcement and developer selection, design and test of the development product, final evaluation, and standardization of the project. However, if the RFP is not established at the beginning of the project, there is an increased risk of business failure due to frequent changes by various reasons. In this study, we recognized the necessity of elaboration of RFP and applied the AHP method for quantitative elaboration. Eight requirements of the RFP related to the mechanical/electrical performance of localized development products and three elaboration methods for each requirement were designed in a hierarchical structure, and each weight was calculated by applying the 5-point scale AHP method. The AHP survey was conducted with 20 developers participating in the localization parts project, and the consistency ratio of the AHP survey result was less than 0.1. The elaboration method with the highest value among the calculated weights is classified, and the analysis results and future research directions of the elaboration method are presented.

Governance research for Artificial intelligence service (인공지능 서비스 거버넌스 연구)

  • Soonduck Yoo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for the introduction and evaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) services not only in general applications but also in public policies. To achieve this, the study explores AI service management and governance toolkits, providing insights into how to introduce AI services in public policies. Firstly, it offers guidelines on the direction of AI service development and what aspects to avoid. Secondly, in the development phase, it recommends using the AI governance toolkit to review content through checklists at each stage of design, development, and deployment. Thirdly, when operating AI services, it emphasizes the importance of adhering to principles related to 1) planning and design, 2) the lifecycle, 3) model construction and validation, 4) deployment and monitoring, and 5) accountability. The governance perspective of AI services is crucial for mitigating risks associated with service provision, and research in risk management aspects should be conducted. While embracing the advantages of AI, proactive measures should be taken to address limitations and risks. Efforts should be made to efficiently formulate policies using AI technology to create high value and provide meaningful societal impacts.

Effects of Cryosurgery in Primary Lung Cancer (원발성 폐암에서 냉동수술의 치료 효과)

  • Jung, Won-Jae;Kim, Kwang-Taik;Yi, Eun-Jue;Lee, Sung-Ho;Kang, Moon-Chul;Chung, Jae-Ho;Ham, Soo-Yeoun;Jo, Sung-Bum
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.201-205
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    • 2009
  • Background: Cryosurgery has been used to treat primary malignant pulmonary tumors at our institute since November 2004. In this study we analyzed our treatment results and complication rates. Material and Method: A retrospective study using medical charts and imaging data was conducted involving 17 patients with a total of 17 malignant pulmonary tumors who were treated between November 2004 and March 2007. Fourteen patients were males and 3 were females. The median age of the patients was 64 years (range, $54{\sim}77$ years). The average size of the tumors was 48.8mm (range, $36{\sim}111mm$) in diameter. The patients were followed with chest CT scans 7 days, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months postoperatively. PET scans were obtained between 6 and 9 months postoperatively. The treatment response was analyzed according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria. Result: Six months after treatment, 6 tumors (35.3%) showed a complete response, 4 (23.5%) had a partial response, 3 (17.6%) had stable disease, and 4 (23.5%) showed disease progression. In tumors <4 cm in diameter, a complete response was reported in 50% of the tumors. A $x^2$-test showed that in tumors <4 cm in diameter, the p-value for results better than a partial response was 0.034. With respect to procedural complications, there was 1 case of blood-tinged sputum which resolved spontaneously within 1 or 2 days, a spontaneously relieved case of subcutaneous emphysema, and 1 patient with a fever. There were no mortalities and the average hospital stay was 6.3 days. Conclusion: The effects of cryosurgery on primary lung cancer is greatest in patients with small tumors. Considering the facts that cryosurgery is minimally invasive, has a low complication rate, and can be performed repetitively, we believe that it may play an important role in the treatment of high risk lung cancer patients.

Biological Toxicity Assessment of Sediment at an Ocean Dumping Site in Korea (폐기물 배출해역 퇴적물의 생물학적 독성평가 연구)

  • Seok, Hyeong Ju;Kim, Young Ryun;Kim, Tae Won;Hwang, Choul-Hee;Son, Min Ho;Choi, Ki-young;Kim, Chang-joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • The effect of sediments in a waste dumping area on marine organisms was evaluated using sediment toxicity tests with a benthic amphipod (Monocorophium acherusicum) and bioluminescent bacterium (Vibrio fischeri) in accordance with the Korean Standard Method for Marine Wastes (KSMMW). Nine sites in the East Sea-Byeong, East Sea-Jeong, and Yellow Sea-Byeong areas were sampled from 2016 to 2019. The test results showed that the relative average survival rate (benthic amphipods) and relative luminescence inhibition rate (luminescent bacteria) were below 30%, which were judged to be "non-toxic." However, in the t-test, a total of 12 benthic amphipod samples (6, 1, 1, and 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively) were significantly different (p<0.05) from the control samples. To identify the source of toxicity on benthic amphipods, a simple linear regression analysis was performed between the levels of eight heavy metals (Cr, As, Ni, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Hg) in sediments and the relative average survival rate. The results indicated that Cr had the highest contribution to the toxicity of benthic amphipods (p = 0.000, R2 = 0.355). In addition, Cr was detected at the highest concentration at the DB-85 station and exceeded the Marine Environment Standards every year. Although the sediments were determined as "not toxic" according to the ecotoxicity criteria of the KSMMW, the results of the statistical significance tests and toxicity identification evaluation indicated that the toxic effect was not acceptable. Therefore, revising the criteria for determining the toxic effect by deriving a reference value through quantitative risk assessment using species sensitivity distribution curves is necessary in the future.

Effects of an Educational Program for the High Risk Group of Cardio-cerebrovascular Disease: Awareness of the Warning Signs and Symptoms of Acute Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in the Aged at Senior Centers (심뇌혈관질환 고위험군 대상 교육프로그램의 효과: 경로당노인의 심근경색과 뇌졸중에 대한 경고증상 인지도)

  • Song, Jung-Kook;Park, Hyeung-Keun;Hong, Seong Chul
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.126-136
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: This study was performed to investigate the effects of a health education program for the aged on knowledge about the warning signs and symptoms of acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Methods: Data from 337 elderly people (159 participated and 178 non-participated) at senior centers in Jeju-si were collected by 1 to 1 interview from January to March 2012, one year after the education program provided. Two stages of study were performed: Cross-sectional, case-control study on the level of knowledge about the warning signs and symptoms; and multivariate logistic regression to fine out predictors of optimal awareness. Results: No significant discrepancy of knowledge level between case and control group was found. The knowledge level as high as a surge was shown in both groups one year later. A surge of knowledge had been shown after the education provided in one month. The factors affecting the optimal level of knowledge were education (Odds ratio 3.01; Confidence Interval 1.72-5.26; P-value <0.001) and 7 days of watching TV news per week (2.97; 1.68-5.23; P<0.001). However, participation in the health education was not significant (1.60; 0.98-2.61; P=0.059). Conclusions: The effects of a targeted program in high-risk groups for cardio-cerebrovascular disease are only guaranteed in the enhancement by a population-based mass-media education campaign.