• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluating System

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

An Exploratory study on the demand for training programs to improve Real Estate Agents job performance -Focused on Cheonan, Chungnam- (부동산중개인의 직무능력 향상을 위한 교육프로그램 욕구에 관한 탐색적 연구 -충청남도 천안지역을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Jae-Beom
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.3856-3868
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    • 2011
  • Until recently, research trend in real estate has been focused on real estate market and the market analysis. But the studies on real estate training program development for real estate agents to improve their job performance are relatively short in numbers. Thus, this study shows empirical analysis of the needs for the training programs for real estate agents in Cheonan to improve their job performance. The results are as follows. First, in the survey of asking what educational contents they need in order to improve real estate agents' job performance, most of the respondents show their needs for the analysis of house's value, legal knowledge, real estate management, accounting, real estate marketing, and understanding of the real estate policy. This is because they are well aware that the best way of responding to the changing clients' needs comes from training programs. Secondly, asked about real estate marketing strategies, most of respondents showed their awareness of new strategies to meet the needs of clients. This is because new forms of marketing strategies including internet ads are needed in the field as the paradigm including Information Technology changes. Thirdly, asked about the need for real estate-related training programs, 92% of the respondents answered they need real estate education programs run by the continuing education centers of the universities. In addition, the survey showed their needs for retraining programs that utilize the resources in the local universities. Other than this, to have effective and efficient training programs, they demanded running a training system by utilizing the human resources of the universities under the name of the department of 'Real Estate Contract' for real estate agents' job performance. Fourthly, the survey revealed real estate management(44.2%) and real estate marketing(42.3%) is the most chosen contents they want to take in the regular course for improving real estate agents' job performance. This shows their will to understand clients' needs through the mind of real estate management and real estate marketing. The survey showed they prefer the training programs as an irregular course to those in the regular one. Despite the above results, this study chose subjects only in Cheanan and thus it needs to research more diverse areas. The needs of programs to improve real estate agents job performance should be analyzed empirically targeting the real estate agents not just in Cheonan but also cities like Pyeongchon, Ilsan and Bundang in which real estate business is booming, as well as undergraduate and graduate students whose major is real estate studies. These studies will be able to provide information to help develop the customized training programs by evaluating elements that real estate agents need in order to meet clients satisfaction and improve their job performance. Many variables of the program development learned through these studies can be incorporated in the curriculum of the real estate studies and used very practically as information for the development of the real estate studies in this fast changing era.

A Study on the Establishment of Acceptable Range for Internal Quality Control of Radioimmunoassay (핵의학 검체검사 내부정도관리 허용범위 설정에 관한 고찰)

  • Young Ji, LEE;So Young, LEE;Sun Ho, LEE
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.43-47
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    • 2022
  • Purpose Radioimmunoassay implement quality control by systematizing the internal quality control system for quality assurance of test results. This study aims to contribute to the quality assurance of radioimmunoassay results and to implement systematic quality control by measuring the average CV of internal quality control and external quality control by plenty of institutions for reference when setting the laboratory's own acceptable range. Materials and Methods We measured the average CV of internal quality control and the bounce rate of more than 10.0% for a total of 42 items from October 2020 to December 2021. According to the CV result, we classified and compared the upper group (5.0% or less), the middle group (5.0~10.0%) and the lower group (10.0% or more). The bounce rate of 10.0% or more was compared by classifying the item of five or more institutions into tumor markers, thyroid hormones and other hormones. The average CV was measured by the overall average and standard deviation of the external quality control results for 28 items from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition, the average CV was measured by the overall average and standard deviation of the proficiency results between institutions for 13 items in the first half and the second half of 2021. The average CV of internal quality control and external quality control was compared by item so we compared and analyzed the items that implement well to quality control and the items that require attention to quality control. Results As a result of measuring the precision average of internal quality control for 42 items of six institutions, the top group (5.0% or less) are Ferritin, HGH, SHBG, and 25-OH-VitD, while the bottom group (≤10.0%) are cortisol, ATA, AMA, renin, and estradiol. When comparing more than 10.0% bounce rate of CV for tumor markers, CA-125 (6.7%), CA-19-9 (9.8%) implemented well, while SCC-Ag (24.3%), CA-15-3 (26.7%) were among the items that require attention to control. As a result of comparing the bounce rate of more than 10.0% of CV for thyroid hormones examination, free T4 (2.1%), T3 (9.3%) showed excellent performance and AMA (39.6%), ATA (51.6%) required attention to control. When comparing the bounce rate of 10.0% or more of CV for other hormones, IGF-1 (8.8%), FSH (9.1%), prolactin (9.2%) showed excellent performance, however estradiol (37.3%), testosterone (37.7%), cortisol (44.4%) required attention to control. As a result of measuring the average CV of the whole institutions participating at external quality control for 28 items, HGH and SCC-Ag were included in the top group (≤10.0%), however ATA, estradiol, TSI, and thyroglobulin included in bottom group (≥30.0%). Conclusion As a result of evaluating 42 items of six institutions, the average CV was 3.7~12.2% showing a 3.3 times difference between the upper group and the lower group. Cortisol, ATA, AMA, Renin and estradiol tests with high CV will require continuous improvement activities to improve precision. In addition, we measured and compared the overall average CV of the internal quality control, the external quality control and the proficiency between institutions participating of six institutions for 41 items excluding HBs-Ab. As a result, ATA, AMA, Renin and estradiol belong to the same subgroup so we require attention to control and consider setting a higher acceptable range. It is recommended to set and control the acceptable range standard of internal quality control CV in consideration of many things in the laboratory due to the different reagents and instruments, and the results vary depending on the test's proficiency and quality control materials. It is thought that the accuracy and reliability of radioimmunoassay results can be improved if systematic quality control is implemented based on the set acceptable range.

Evaluation of HalcyonTM Fast kV CBCT effectiveness in radiation therapy in cervical cancer patients of childbearing age who performed ovarian transposition (난소전위술을 시행한 가임기 여성의 자궁경부암 방사선치료 시 난소선량 감소를 위한 HalcyonTM Fast kV CBCT의 유용성 평가 : Phantom study)

  • Lee Sung Jae;Shin Chung Hun;Choi So Young;Lee Dong Hyeong;Yoo Soon Mi;Song Heung Gwon;Yoon In Ha
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.34
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of reducing the absorbed dose to the ovaries and the quality of the CBCT image when using the HalcyonTM Fast kV CBCT of cervical cancer patients of child-bearing age who performed ovarian transposition Materials and Methods : Contouring of the cervix and ovaries required for measurement was performed on the computed tomography images of the human phantom (Alderson Rando Phantom, USA), and three Optically Stimulated Luminescence Dosimeter(OSLD) were attached to the selected organ cross-section, respectively. In order to measure the absorbed dose to the cervix and ovaries in the TruebeamTM pelvis mode (Hereinafter referred to as TP), The HalcyonTM Pelvis mode (Hereinafter referred to as HP) and The HalcyonTM Pelvis Fast mode (Hereinafter referred to as HPF), An image was taken with a scan range of 17.5 cm and also taken an image that reduced the Scan range to 12.5cm. A total of 10 cumulative doses were summed, It was replaced with a value of 23 Fx, the number of cervical cancer treatments, and compared In additon, uniformity, low contrast visibility, spatial resolution, and geometric distortion were compared and analyzed using Catphan 504 phantom to compare CBCT image quality between equipment. Each factor was repeatedly measured three times, and the average value was obtained by analysing with the Doselab (Mobius Medical Systems, LP. Versions: 6.8) program. Results: As a result of measuring absorbed dose by CBCT with OSLD, TP and HP did not obtain significant results under the same conditions. The mode showing the greatest reduction value was HPF versus TP. In HPF, the absorbed dose was reduced by 39.8% in the cervix and 19.8% in the ovary compared to the TP in the scan range of 17.5 cm. the scan range was reduced to 12.5 cm, absorbed dose was reduced by 34.2% in the cervix and 50.5% in the ovary. In addition, result of evaluating the quality of the image used in the above experiment, it complied with the equipment manufacturer's standards with Geometric Distortion within 1mm (SBRT standard), Uniformity HU, LCV within 2.0%, Spatial Resolution more than 3 lp/mm. Conclusion: According to the results of this experiment, HalcyonTM can select more various conditions than TruebeamTM in treatment of fertility woman who have undergone ovarian Transposition , because it is important to reduce the radiation dose by CBCT during radiation therapy. So finally we recommend HalcyonTM Fast kV CBCT which maintains image quality even at low mAs. However, it is consider that the additional exposure to low doses can be reduced by controlling the imaging range for patients who have undergone ovarian transposition in other treatment machines.