• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation techniques

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Estimation of Near Surface Air Temperature Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and Geostatistics (MODIS 지표면 온도 자료와 지구통계기법을 이용한 지상 기온 추정)

  • Shin, HyuSeok;Chang, Eunmi;Hong, Sungwook
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2014
  • Near surface air temperature data which are one of the essential factors in hydrology, meteorology and climatology, have drawn a substantial amount of attention from various academic domains and societies. Meteorological observations, however, have high spatio-temporal constraints with the limits in the number and distribution over the earth surface. To overcome such limits, many studies have sought to estimate the near surface air temperature from satellite image data at a regional or continental scale with simple regression methods. Alternatively, we applied various Kriging methods such as ordinary Kriging, universal Kriging, Cokriging, Regression Kriging in search of an optimal estimation method based on near surface air temperature data observed from automatic weather stations (AWS) in South Korea throughout 2010 (365 days) and MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data (MOD11A1, 365 images). Due to high spatial heterogeneity, auxiliary data have been also analyzed such as land cover, DEM (digital elevation model) to consider factors that can affect near surface air temperature. Prior to the main estimation, we calculated root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature differences from the 365-days LST and AWS data by season and landcover. The results show that the coefficient of variation (CV) of RMSE by season is 0.86, but the equivalent value of CV by landcover is 0.00746. Seasonal differences between LST and AWS data were greater than that those by landcover. Seasonal RMSE was the lowest in winter (3.72). The results from a linear regression analysis for examining the relationship among AWS, LST, and auxiliary data show that the coefficient of determination was the highest in winter (0.818) but the lowest in summer (0.078), thereby indicating a significant level of seasonal variation. Based on these results, we utilized a variety of Kriging techniques to estimate the surface temperature. The results of cross-validation in each Kriging model show that the measure of model accuracy was 1.71, 1.71, 1.848, and 1.630 for universal Kriging, ordinary Kriging, cokriging, and regression Kriging, respectively. The estimates from regression Kriging thus proved to be the most accurate among the Kriging methods compared.

Binder Stiffness Effect on Permanent Deformation and Tensile Strength of Asphalt Concretes (바인더 강성이 아스팔트 콘크리트의 인장강도와 소성변형 특성에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Hwan;Yoo, Min-Yong;Kim, Jin-Chul;Kim, Kwang-Woo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2010
  • Since the relatively stiff binder shows a higher tensile strength as well as higher rutting resistance, it is believed that the binder stiffness is an important factor for rutting and tensile strength of asphalt mixtures. The typical tensile property is measured by indirect tensile strength (ITS) test at $25^{\circ}C$ and the rutting resistance is most widely measured by wheel tracking (WT) test at $60^{\circ}C$. The deformation strength ($S_D$) is newly developed property to estimate rut resistance of asphalt concretes at $60^{\circ}C$. The ITS and $S_D$ are very simple to measure by static test techniques, but the WT is measured by repeated loading procedure which requires relatively longer time and more efforts. Since these three properties are highly dependent upon the binder stiffness, it may be possible to estimate one property from another. Therefore, this study investigate the possibility of estimating the rutting characteristics (measured by WT test) by ITS or $S_D$ test, and the ITS by $S_D$. Because of binder stiffness effect, in the WT estimation by ITS, a tendency was observed for the higher ITS mixture to have the lower rut depth, giving $R^2{\fallingdotseq}$0.6, on the average. The ITS estimation by $S_D$ showed $R^2{\fallingdotseq}$0.64, and the WT estimation by SD showed $R^2{\fallingdotseq}$0.84, which is highest correlation among the three. Therefore, it was concluded that there is relatively good possibility of estimating WT result by $S_D$, and even though $R^2$ is somewhat low, there is some correlation between WT and ITS.

A Knowledge-based Approach for the Estimation of Effective Sampling Station Frequencies in Benthic Ecological Assessments (지식기반적 방법을 활용한 저서생태계 평가의 유효 조사정점 개수 산정)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Jung, Hoe-In;Lee, Yong-Woo;Lee, Man-Woo;Lee, Chang-Gun;Jin, Sung-Ju;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Hong, Jae-Sang
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2011
  • Decision making in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Consultation on the Coastal Area Utilization (CCAU) is footing on the survey reports, thus requires concrete and accurate information on the natural habitats. In spite of the importance of reporting the ecological quality and status of habitats, the accumulated knowledge and recent techniques in ecology such as the use of investigated cases and indicators/indices have not been utilized in evaluation processes. Even the EIA report does not contain sufficient information required in a decision making process for conservation and development. In addition, for CCAU, sampling efforts were so limited that only two or a few stations were set in most study cases. This hampers transferring key ecological information to both specialist review and decision making processes. Hence, setting the effective number of sampling stations can be said as a prior step for better assessment. We introduced a few statistical techniques to determine the number of sampling stations in macrobenthos surveys. However, the application of the techniques requires a preliminary study that cannot be performed under the current assessment frame. An analysis of the spatial configuration of sampling stations from 19 previous studies was carried out as an alternative approach, based on the assumption that those configurations reported in scientific journal contribute to successful understanding of the ecological phenomena. The distance between stations and number of sampling stations in a $4{\times}4$ km unit area were calculated, and the medians of each parameter were 2.3 km, and 3, respectively. For each study, approximated survey area (ASA, $km^2$) was obtained by using the number of sampling stations in a unit area (NSSU) and total number of sampling stations (TNSS). To predict either appropriate ASA or NSSU/TNSS, we found and suggested statistically significant functional relationship among ASA, survey purpose and NSSU. This empirical approach will contribute to increasing sampling effort in a field survey and communicating with reasonable data and information in EIA and CCAU.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Development of the Deterioration Models for the Port Structures by the Multiple Regression Analysis and Markov Chain (다중 회귀분석 및 Markov Chain을 통한 항만시설물의 상태열화모델 개발)

  • Cha, Kyunghwa;Kim, Sung-Wook;Kim, Jung Hoon;Park, Mi-Yun;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.229-239
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    • 2015
  • In light of the significant increase in the quantities of goods transported and the development of the shipping industry, the frequency of usage of port structures has increased; yet, the government's budget for the shipping & port of SOC has been reduced. Port structures require systematically effective maintenance and management trends that address their growing frequency of usage. In order to construct a productive maintenance system, it is essential to develop deterioration models of port structures that consider various characteristics, such as location, type, use, constructed level, and state of maintenance. Processes for developing such deterioration models include examining factors that cause the structures to deteriorate, collecting data on deteriorating structures, and deciding methods of estimation. The techniques used for developing the deterioration models are multiple regression analysis and Markov chain theory. Multiple regression analysis can reflect changes over time and Markov chain theory can apply status changes based on a probabilistic method. Along with these processes, the deterioration models of open-type and gravity-type wharfs were suggested.

An Evaluation of Damage Scale on the Local Governments in Gangwon-do using Landslide Risk Maps (산사태 위험지도를 이용한 강원도 지자체의 피해규모 산정)

  • Yang, In Tae;Park, Jae Kook;Park, Kheun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2014
  • This study predicted damage areas due to landslides in Gangwon Province and estimated the scale of damage to roads, buildings, and forests on the local government level. By using old research findings to predict landslides, the study established techniques to make maps for landslide vulnerability, occurrence possibility, and risk. The scale of damage to roads, buildings, and forests was estimated at the local government level by making a landslide risk map for 100mm, 200mm, and 300mm of accumulated rainfall. The scale of damage to roads, buildings, and forests was estimated to be greatest in Hongcheon-gun, Jeongseon-gun, and Hongcheon-gun, respectively, in case of 100mm~200mm accumulated rainfall, in Chuncheon City, Pyeongchang-gun, and Hongcheon-gun, respectively, in case of 200mm~300mm accumulated rainfall, and in Hongcheon-gun in case of 300mm accumulated rainfall or more. Those estimation results of scale of damage by landslides at the local government level will help to set priorities in landslide prevention and provide basic data for budget decisions.

Orhtophoto Accuracy Assessment of Ultra-light Fixed Wing UAV Photogrammetry Techniques (초경량 고정익무인항공기 사진측량기법의 정사영상 정확도 평가)

  • Lee, In Su;Lee, Jae One;Kim, Su Jeong;Hong, Soon Heon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2593-2600
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    • 2013
  • The main purpose of this study is to carry out the performance evaluation of Ultra-light Fixed Wing UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) photogrammetry which is being, currently, applied for various fields such as cultural assets, accident survey, military reconnaissance work, and disaster management at home and abroad. Firstly, RMSE estimation of Aerial Triangulation (AT) are within approximately 0.10 cm in position (X, Y). And through the comparison of parcel's boundary points coordinates by terrestrial surveying and by UAV photogrammetry, the analysis shows that RMSE are shifted approximately 0.174~0.205 m in X-direction, 0.294~0.298 m in Y-direction respectively. Lastly, parcel's area by orthophoto of UAV photogrammetry and by that of cadastre register has been shown the difference by 0.118 m2. The results presented in this study is just one case study of orthophoto accuracy assessment of Ultra-light fixed wing UAV photogrammetry, hereafter various researches such as AT, direct-georeferencing, flight planning, practical applications, etc. should be necessary continuously.

MICROHARDNESS AND MICROLEAKAGE OF COMPOSITE RESIN CURED BY VISIBLE LIGHT WITH VARIOUS BAND OF WAVELENGTH (다양한 파장폭의 가시광선에 의해 중합된 복합레진의 미세경도와 변연누출도)

  • Park, Soo-Man;Lee, Jae-Yong;Han, Seung-Ryul;Ha, Sang-Yoon;Shin, Dong-Hoon
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.403-410
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    • 2002
  • Several ways of curing are being tried to improve material's properties and reduce marginal gap. However, all are considering about the pattern of light intensity. It was noted from the preliminary study the change of light wavelength from filter changing may give an impact on material's property and microleakage. The object of this study was to verify the effect of filters with various wavelength width on the microhardness and microleakage of composite resin ; hybrid type of DenFil and submicron hybrid type of Esthet X. Composite resins were cured using 3 kinds of filter; narrow-banded(465-475 nm), mid-banded(430-470 nm), wide-banded(400-500 nm). After the estimation of microhardness. degree of dye penetration and the maximum gap from SEM evaluation were done between 4 groups that showed no difference in microhardness value of the lower surface . The results were as follows : 1 Adequate microhardness could not be gained with a narrow-banded filter irrespective of curing time. At the upper surface, DenFil should be polymerized with middle or wide-banded filter for 20 seconds at least, while Esthet X be col$.$ed with middle or wide-banded filter for 30 seconds at least to get simitar hardness value to control group. 2. There was little dye penetration in enamel margin, but all dentin margins skewed much more dye penetration irrespective of curing conditions. Although there was no statistical difference, groups cured with mid-banded filter for 40 seconds and with wide-width filter for 20 seconds showed relatively less dye penetration. 3. It was revealed from the SEM examination that group cured with wide-banded filter had the smallest gap without statistical significance. Spearman's rho test showed that the correlation between the results of dye penetration and SEM examination was very low. From these results, it could be concluded that curing with wide-width filter would be better than the other techniques, even though the curing technique using mid-width filter seems to have its own unique advantage.

Therapeutic Results of Concurrent Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Uterine Cervical Cancer (국소적으로 진행된 자궁경부암에서 방사선과 Cisplatin의 동시병합요법의 치료결과)

  • Kang, Seung-Hee;Suh, Hyun-Suk;Yang, Kwang-Mo;Lee, Eung-Soo;Park, Sung-Kwon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 1995
  • Purpose : Despite a development of therapeutic machines and advance in modern radiation therapy techniques, locally advanced cervical carcinoma has shown high rate of local failure and poor survival rate, Combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy demonstrated benefit in improving local control and possibly the overall survival. Our study was performed to evaluate effect of concurrent chemoradiation on locally advanced uterine cervical cancer. Methods and Materials : Twenty six patients with locally advanced stage(FIGO stage IIB with ${\geq}5cm$ in diameter, III, IVA) were treated with combination of radiation therapy and concurrent cisplatinum between May of 1988 and September of 1993 at our hospital. Radiation therapy consisted of external irradiaton and 1-2 sessions of intracavitary irradiation. Cisplatinum was administered in bolus injection of 25mg/$m^2$ at weekly intervals during the course of external radiation therapy. Results : Of the 26 Patients, twenty-five patients were evaluable for estimation of response. Median follow-up period was 25 months with ranges from 3 to 73 months. Stage IIB, III, and IVA were 16, 5, 4 patients, respectively, Twenty patients were squamous cell carcinoma. Response was noted in all 25 patients: complete response(CR) in 17/25($68\%$), Partial response(PR) in 8/25($32\%$). Of the 24 patients except one who died of sepsis at 3 months follow-up, seventeen patients($70.8\%$) maintained local control in the pelvis: 16/17($94.1\%$) in CR, 1/17($14.3\%$) in PR. Fourteen of the 17 patients with CR are alive disease free on the completion of follow-up. Median survival is 28 months for CR and 15 months for PR. Analysis of 5-year survival by stage shows 11/16($59.8\%$) in IIB, 3/5($60.0\%$) in III, and 1/4($25.0\%$) in IVA. Overall 5-year survival rate was $55.2\%$. Ten patients recurred: 4 at locoregional, 3 in distant metastasis and 3 with locoregional and distant site. Toxicity by addition of cisplatinum was not excessive. Conclusion : Although the result of this study was obtained from small number of patients, it is rather encouraging in view of markedly improved response rate compared with the results of historical group.

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A Prediction of Long-Term Settlement in Large Reclamated Sites Using Laboratory Consolidation Tests and GIS Techniques (실내압밀시험과 GIS 기법을 이용한 대규모 매립지역의 장기침하량 예측)

  • Park, Sa-Won;Kim, Hong-Taek;Park, Sung-Won;Baek, Seung-Cheol;Park, Sang-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2006
  • The secondary consolidation settlement of soft clay is generally very little compared to the total settlement and occurs very slowly during long-term period. However the secondary consolidation settlement is comparatively large amount in organic and heavily compressed clay and is a very important engineering factor. In order to reduce residual settlements in reclaimed soft ground, the preloading method is often used. In this study, in order to determine reasonable long-term settlements of large reclaimed site, laboratory incremental loading consolidation tests and surcharging consolidation tests are performed. Sampling was done at Incheon area of west coast and Gwangyang area of south coast in Korea. The characteristics of secondary consolidation have obtained through laboratory tests and analyzed systematically to predict long-term settlements. Additionally, the location data and laboratory test results are correlated by using GIS(geographic information system). The secondary consolidation settlement of the site was predicted based on D/B and the operation technique and estimation technique of space of GIS.

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