• 제목/요약/키워드: Estimation of death time

검색결과 23건 처리시간 0.032초

Estimation of Time Trends of Incidence of Prostate Canner - an Indian Scenario

  • Lalitha, Krishnappa;Suman, Gadicherla;Pruthvish, Sreekantaiah;Mathew, Aleyamma;Murthy, Nandagudi S.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권12호
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    • pp.6245-6250
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    • 2012
  • Background: With increase in life expectancy, adoption of newer lifestyles and screening using prostate specific antigen (PSA), the incidence of prostate cancer is on rise. Globally prostate cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer and sixth leading cause of cancer death in men. The present communication makes an attempt to analyze the time trends in incidence for different age groups of the Indian population reported in different Indian registries using relative difference and regression approaches. Materials and Methods: The data published in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for various Indian registries for different periods and/or publications by the individual registries served as the source materials. Trends were estimated by computing the mean annual percentage change (MAPC) in the incidence rates using the relative difference between two time periods (latest and oldest) and also by estimation of annual percentage change (EAPC) by the Poisson regression model. Results: Age adjusted incidence rates (AAR) of prostate cancer for the period 2005-2008 ranged from 0.8 (Manipur state excluding Imphal west) to 10.9 (Delhi) per $10^5$ person-years. Age specific incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all PBCRs especially after 55 years showing a peak incidence at +65 years clearly indicating that prostate cancer is a cancer of the elderly. MAPC in crude incidence rate(CR) ranged from 0.14 (Ahmedabad) to 8.6 (Chennai). Chennai also recorded the highest MAPC of 5.66 in ASIR in the age group of 65+. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the AAR ranged from 0.8 to 5.8 among the three registries. Increase in trend was seen in the 55-64 year age group cohort in many registries and in the 35-44 age group in Metropolitan cities such as Delhi and Mumbai. Conclusions: Several Indian registries have revealed an increasing trend in the incidence of prostate cancer and the mean annual percentage change has ranged from 0.14-8.6.

Mortality Characteristics and Prediction of Female Breast Cancer in China from 1991 to 2011

  • Shi, Xiao-Jun;Au, William W.;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Chen, Lin-Xiang;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.2785-2791
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    • 2014
  • Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

Estimation of Survival Rates in Patients with Lung Cancer in West Azerbaijan, the Northwest of Iran

  • Abazari, Malek;Gholamnejad, Mahdia;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Abazari, Reza;Roosta, Yousef;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권9호
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    • pp.3923-3926
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    • 2015
  • Background: Lung cancer is a fatal malignancy with high mortality and short survival time. The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of Iranian patients with lung cancer and its associate predictive factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 355 patients admitted to hospitals of West Azerbaijan in the year 2007. The patients were followed up by phone calls until the end of June 2014. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for comparison. The Cox's proportional hazard model was used to investigate the effect of various variables on patient survival time, including age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance, smoking status, tumor type, tumor stage, treatment, metastasis, and blood hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 355 patients under study, 240 died and 115 were censored. The mean and median survival time of patients was 13 and 4.8 months, respectively. According to the results of Kaplan-Meier method, 1, 2, and 3 years survival rates were 39%, 18%, and 0.07%, respectively. Based on Cox regression analysis, the risk of death was associated with ECOG group V (1.83, 95% CI: 1 Conclusions: The survival time of the patients with lung cancer is very short. While early diagnosis may improve the life expectancy effective treatment is not available.

Neuroprotective Effects by Nimodipine Treatment in the Experimental Global Ischemic Rat Model: Real Time Estimation of Glutamate

  • Choi, Seok-Keun;Lee, Gi-Ja;Choi, Sam-Jin;Kim, Youn-Jung;Park, Hun-Kuk;Park, Bong-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제49권1호
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2011
  • Objective: Glutamate is a key excitatory neurotransmitter in the brain, and its excessive release plays a key role in the development of neuronal injury. In order to define the effect of nimodipine on glutamate release, we monitored extracellular glutamate release in real-time in a global ischemia rat model with eleven vessel occlusion. Methods: Twelve rats were randomly divided into two groups: the ischemia group and the nimodipine treatment group. The changes of extracellular glutamate level were measured using microdialysis amperometric biosensor, in coincident with cerebral blood flow (CBF) and electroencephalogram. Nimodipine (0.025 ${\mu}g$/100 gm/min) was infused into lateral to the CBF probe, during the ischemic period. Also, we performed Nissl staining method to assess the neuroprotective effect of nimodipine. Results: During the ischemic period, the mean maximum change in glutamate concentration was $133.22{\pm}2.57\;{\mu}M$ in the ischemia group and $75.42{\pm}4.22\;{\mu}M$ (p<0.001) in the group treated with nimodipine. The total amount of glutamate released was significantly different (P<0.001) between groups during the ischemic period. The %cell viability in hippocampus was $47.50{\pm}5.64$ (p<0.005) in ischemia group, compared with sham group. But, the %cell viability in nimodipine treatment group was $95.46{\pm}6.60$ in hippocampus (p<0.005). Conclusion: From the real-time monitoring and Nissl staining results, we suggest that the nimodipine treatment is responsible for the protection of the neuronal cell death through the suppression of extracellular glutamate release in the 11-VO global ischemia model of rat.

Danger Estimation with HIC and Risk Curve in Passengers Falls from Running Rail Cars

  • Nakagawa, Toshiko
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2011
  • In 2001, an independent official board was constituted in Japan to investigate aircraft and railway accidents. In the past 10 years, many accidents and serious incidents have been investigated and these official reports were published by the board, on which the author had sat for 9 years as boarding member. In the interim, there were several train disasters which mocked our trust in railways and also many apparent trivial incidents. In recent years, serious incidents, which a door of running rail cars opens suddenly with some trouble, happen 2 or 3 times in a year. For the past 10 years, such incidents have happened 14 times and 13 cases of them were closed by the board mentioned above. In these 13 cases, no one fell off the rail car, so that the death toll was none luckily. In this paper, these 13 serious incidents are picked up among all the reports published by the board and outlined using some tables. Especially, fall accidents of passengers are discussed mainly from the view point of impact force and duration time. Then, the equation of HIC (Head Injury Criteria) and the risk curves in terms of the HIC are dealt with properly.

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말기 암 환자에서 호중구-림프구 비가 예후인자로서 생존기간에 미치는 영향 (Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio as a Prognostic Factor in Terminally Ill Cancer Patients)

  • 조완제;황희진;이용제;손가현;오승민;이혜리;심재용
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2008
  • 목적: 말기 암 환자에게 있어서 정확한 여명 예측은 환자의 효율적인 치료 계획을 세우고 환자의 삶의 질을 높이는데 있어서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 말기 암 환자에서 호중구-림프구 비가 생존기간 예측을 위한 예후 인자로서 유용한가를 알아보고자 한다. 방법: 2004년 1월부터 2007년 6월까지 말기 암 환자로 완화 치료를 목적으로 영동세브란스병원 가정의학과에 입원 혹은 전입되어 치료를 받는 중 사망한 67명의 환자를 대상으로 하였다. 호중구-림프구 비에 따라서 3개의 군으로 나누어 과거 병력, 신체 계측, 임상 증상, 혈액검사 소견, 생존기간을 분석하였다. 결과: 호중구-림프구 비가 가장 높은 군(${\geq}12.5$)에서 환자의 생존기간이 단변량 분석에서 통계적으로 유의하게 짧았으며(hazard ratio (HR)=3.270, P=0.001)), 저하된 활동도, 호흡 곤란 증상을 보정한 다변량 분석에서도 통계적 유의성을 보였다(HR=2.907, P=0.007). 완화 치료를 위해 입원 혹은 전입된 시점에 비하여 사망이 임박한 시점에서 호중구-림프구 비는 의미 있는 증가를 보였다(P=0.001). 결론: 호중구-림프구 비는 말기 암환자에서 생존기간 예측을 위한 독립적인 예후 인자로 확인 되었다.

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"기사망자(其死亡者) 삼분유이(三分有二) 상한십거기칠(傷寒十居其七)"에 대한 소고(小考) - 상한(傷寒)에 의한 질환(疾患)-특이(特異) 사망률(死亡率을 중심(中心)으로 - (On Estimation of the sentence "Two thirds of them died and seven out of ten died of cold damage")

  • 엄석기;김세현;어완규
    • 대한한의학원전학회지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2008
  • Based on the sentence "The number of my family member and relatives reached around 200, but since the first year of Geonan(建安) era, two thirds of them died and seven out of ten died of cold damage in less than ten years" in Sanghanjapbyeongron(Treatise on Cold Damage and Miscellaneous Diseases), which is allegedly known to be written by Jangnunggyeong(張仲景), we analyzed the sentence by three factors of time, location and people. These factors are used in the investigation of the disease outbreak, and through this analysis, following conclusions were made. 1. Approximate 10 year crude mortality rate since A.D 196(the first yea of Geonan era) in Jangsa(長沙) province was 67 out of 100 in the population. Approximate 10 year disease-specific mortality rate of cold damage since A.D 196(the first yea of Geonan era) in Jangsa(長沙) province was 47 out of 100 in the population. Regardless of age, gender or other demographic variables, approximate 10 year proportionate mortality ratio since A.D 196(the first yea of Geonan era) in Jangsa province was 70.2%, which lead to the assumption that 70% of death is cold-damage related. 2. Increased disease-specific mortality rate by cold damage in Jangsa(長沙) province for about 10 years since A.D 196(the first yea of Geonan era), and followed increased crude mortality rate in the population, threatened the stability of nation or local government. This is due to the repeated war in late Han Dynasty with political chaos and repeated flood caused by geographical disadvantage in Jangsa province.

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Altered Cell to Cell Communication, Autophagy and Mitochondrial Dysfunction in a Model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Potential Protective Effects of Curcumin and Stem Cell Therapy

  • Tork, Ola M;Khaleel, Eman F;Abdelmaqsoud, Omnia M
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권18호
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    • pp.8271-8279
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    • 2016
  • Background: Hepato-carcinogenesis is multifaceted in its molecular aspects. Among the interplaying agents are altered gap junctions, the proteasome/autophagy system, and mitochondria. The present experimental study was designed to outline the roles of these players and to investigate the tumor suppressive effects of curcumin with or without mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and Methods: Adult female albino rats were divided into normal controls and animals with HCC induced by diethyl-nitrosamine (DENA) and $CCl_4$. Additional groups treated after HCC induction were: Cur/HCC which received curcumin; MSCs/HCC which received MSCs; and Cur+MSCs/HCC which received both curcumin and MSCs. For all groups there were histopathological examination and assessment of gene expression of connexin43 (Cx43), ubiquitin ligase-E3 (UCP-3), the autophagy marker LC3 and coenzyme-Q10 (Mito.Q10) mRNA by real time, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, along with measurement of LC3II/LC3I ratio for estimation of autophagosome formation in the rat liver tissue. In addition, the serum levels of ALT, AST and alpha fetoprotein (AFP), together with the proinflammatory cytokines $TNF{\alpha}$ and IL-6, were determined in all groups. Results: Histopathological examination of liver tissue from animals which received DENA-$CCl_4$ only revealed the presence of anaplastic carcinoma cells and macro-regenerative nodules. Administration of curcumin, MSCs; each alone or combined into rats after induction of HCC improved the histopathological picture. This was accompanied by significant reduction in ${\alpha}$-fetoprotein together with proinflammatory cytokines and significant decrease of various liver enzymes, in addition to upregulation of Cx43, UCP-3, LC3 and Mito.Q10 mRNA. Conclusions: Improvement of Cx43 expression, nonapoptotic cell death and mitochondrial function can repress tumor growth in HCC. Administration of curcumin and/or MSCs have tumor suppressive effects as they can target these mechanisms. However, further research is still needed to verify their effectiveness.

Estimation of the Cure Rate in Iranian Breast Cancer Patients

  • Rahimzadeh, Mitra;Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Gohari, Mahmood Reza;Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권12호
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    • pp.4839-4842
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    • 2014
  • Background: Although the Cox's proportional hazard model is the popular approach for survival analysis to investigate significant risk factors of cancer patient survival, it is not appropriate in the case of log-term disease free survival. Recently, cure rate models have been introduced to distinguish between clinical determinants of cure and variables associated with the time to event of interest. The aim of this study was to use a cure rate model to determine the clinical associated factors for cure rates of patients with breast cancer (BC). Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study covered 305 patients with BC, admitted at Shahid Faiazbakhsh Hospital, Tehran, during 2006 to 2008 and followed until April 2012. Cases of patient death were confirmed by telephone contact. For data analysis, a non-mixed cure rate model with Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were employed. All analyses were carried out using a developed Macro in WinBugs. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were employed to find the best model. Results: The overall 1-year, 3-year and 5-year relative survival rates were 97%, 89% and 74%. Metastasis and stage of BC were the significant factors, but age was significant only in negative binomial model. The DIC also showed that the negative binomial model had a better fit. Conclusions: This study indicated that, metastasis and stage of BC were identified as the clinical criteria for cure rates. There are limited studies on BC survival which employed these cure rate models to identify the clinical factors associated with cure. These models are better than Cox, in the case of long-term survival.

청색심기형 교정술후 혼합정맥혈 산소분압과 심근상태 및 혈류역학치와의 상관관계 분석 (Analysis of Relationship between Mixed Venous PO2 and Status of Cardiac Performance with Hemodynamic Values after Correction of Cyanotic Congenital Heart Disease)

  • 안재호;김용진
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.212-219
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    • 1989
  • We utilized pulmonary artery pressure monitoring system in risky patients for preventing the postoperative pulmonary hypertensive crisis and for sampling the mixed venous blood. And this mixed venous blood oxygen saturation [MVSO2] or partial pressure [MVPO2]tells us many meaningful patients state. We selected 59 cyanotic congenital heart diseased patients, who were operated in our hospital from Nov. 1987 to Oct. 1988, in the Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Seoul National University Children\ulcorner Hospital, who had pulmonary artery pressure monitoring catheter and who made us know their mixed venous oxygen condition. We found that there was no close relationship between MVPO2 and Cardiac Index [C.I.] during early postoperative period, but on the first and second day after operation the correlation coefficient was increased as r=0.35[p=0.008], r=0.78[p=0.0001]. So we concluded that the correlation between MVPO2 and C.I. was more reliable with time going as hemodynamic stabilization. And we experienced no survivors whose MVPO2 was under 20 torr, but that was not the only factor for death. From these results, we conclude that we can consider the MVPO2 [or MVSO2] representing C.I. after stabilized postoperative condition of the open heart surgery patients, but during early postoperative period, in addition to this MVPO2, we should do also apply other parameter such as urine output, arterial blood pressure, left atrial pressure and pulmonary arterial pressure for exact estimation of the patients status.

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