• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation factor

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Financial Products Recommendation System Using Customer Behavior Information (고객의 투자상품 선호도를 활용한 금융상품 추천시스템 개발)

  • Hyojoong Kim;SeongBeom Kim;Hee-Woong Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.111-128
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    • 2023
  • With the development of artificial intelligence technology, interest in data-based product preference estimation and personalized recommender systems is increasing. However, if the recommendation is not suitable, there is a risk that it may reduce the purchase intention of the customer and even extend to a huge financial loss due to the characteristics of the financial product. Therefore, developing a recommender system that comprehensively reflects customer characteristics and product preferences is very important for business performance creation and response to compliance issues. In the case of financial products, product preference is clearly divided according to individual investment propensity and risk aversion, so it is necessary to provide customized recommendation service by utilizing accumulated customer data. In addition to using these customer behavioral characteristics and transaction history data, we intend to solve the cold-start problem of the recommender system, including customer demographic information, asset information, and stock holding information. Therefore, this study found that the model proposed deep learning-based collaborative filtering by deriving customer latent preferences through characteristic information such as customer investment propensity, transaction history, and financial product information based on customer transaction log records was the best. Based on the customer's financial investment mechanism, this study is meaningful in developing a service that recommends a high-priority group by establishing a recommendation model that derives expected preferences for untraded financial products through financial product transaction data.

Assessment of Wave Change considering the Impact of Climate Change (기후변화 영향을 고려한 파랑 변화 평가)

  • Chang Kyum Kim;Ho Jin Lee;Sung Duk Kim;Byung Cheol Oh;Ji Eun Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2023
  • According to the climate change scenarios, the intensity of typhoons, a major factor in Korea's natural disaster, is expected to increase. The increase in typhoon intensity leads to a rise in wave heights, which is likely to cause large-scale disasters in coastal regions with high populations and building density for dwelling, industry, and tourism. This study, therefore, analyzed observation data of the Donghae ocean data buoy and conducted a numerical model simulation for wave estimations for the typhoon MAYSAK (202009) period, which showed the maximum significant wave height. The boundary conditions for wave simulations were a JMA-MSM wind field and a wind field applying the typhoon central pressure reduction rate in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. As a result of the wave simulations, the wave height in front of the breakwater at Sokcho port was increased by 15.27% from 4.06 m to 4.68 m in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Furthermore, the return period at the location of 147-2 grid point of deep-sea design wave was calculated to increase at least twice, it is necessary to improve the deep-sea design wave of return period of 50-year, which is prescriptively applied when designing coastal structures.

A Dynamic Panel Approach to Examining the Effects of Local Fiscal Expenditures on Water Quality (동태적 패널접근을 활용한 지방 재정지출의 수질개선 효과분석)

  • Hyonyong Kang;Dong Hee Suh
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.159-178
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to assess the direct and indirect impacts of local fiscal expenditures on water quality. Panel data spanning from 2010 to 2018 for 173 cities and districts in Korea are assembled, and a two-stage dynamic panel model is utilized for our estimation. The empirical findings reveal several key insights. Firstly, local fiscal expenditures on water quality are effective in ameliorating both Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Total Phosphorus (T-P). Notably, the direct impact on T-P surpasses that on BOD in the short and long run. Secondly, expenditures dedicated to water quality improvement demonstrate a positive effect on local economic growth, and an inverted U-shaped relationship is observed between BOD and local economic growth. Due to the positive linkage, the indirect effect on BOD suggests, on average, a deterioration in water quality during local economic growth. Thirdly, concerning BOD, the direct effect of government expenditure on water quality improvement outweighs the indirect effect, but in the case of T-P, the indirect effect is not significant, and the total effect is solely determined by the direct impact. Despite local fiscal expenditures potentially exacerbating water quality through regional economic growth, the study finds that the direct enhancement of water quality remains a more substantial factor in the short and long run.

Estimation and Mapping of Methane Emissions from Rice Paddies in Korea: Analysis of Regional Differences and Characteristics (전국 논에서 발생하는 메탄 배출량의 산정 및 지도화: 지역 격차 및 특성 분석)

  • Choi, Sung-Won;Kim, Joon;Kang, Minseok;Lee, Seung Hoon;Kang, Namgoo;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.88-100
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    • 2018
  • Methane emissions from rice paddies are the largest source of greenhouse gases in the agricultural sector, but there are significant regional differences depending on the surrounding conditions and cultivation practices. To visualize these differences and to analyze their causes and characteristics, the methane emissions from each administrative district in South Korea were calculated according to the IPCC guidelines using the data from the 2010 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Census, and then the results were mapped by using the ArcGIS. The nationwide average of methane emissions per unit area was $380{\pm}74kg\;CH_4\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$. The western region showed a trend toward higher values than the eastern region. One of the major causes resulting in such regional differences was the $SF_o$ (scaling factor associated with the application of organic matter), where the number of cultivation days played an important role to either offset or deepen the differences. Comparison of our results against the actual methane emissions data observed by eddy covariance flux measurement in the three KoFlux rice paddy sites in Gimje, Haenam and Cheorwon showed some differences but encouraging results with a difference of 10 % or less depending on the sites and years. Using the updated GWP (global warming potential) value of 28, the national total methane emission in 2010 was estimated to be $8,742,000tons\;CO_2eq$ - 13% lower than that of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (i.e., $10,048,000tons\;CO_2eq$). The administrative districts-based map of methane emissions developed in this study can help identify the regional differences, and the analysis of their key controlling factors will provide important scientific basis for the practical policy makings for methane mitigation.

A Study on Estimation of Biomass, Stem Density and Biomass Expansion Factor for Stand Age Classes of Japanese Larch (Larix leptolepis) Stands in Gapyeong Area (가평지역 낙엽송림의 바이오매스와 영급별 줄기 밀도 및 바이오매스 확장계수 추정 연구)

  • Noh, Nam-Jin;Son, Yo-Whan;Kim, Jong-Sung;Kim, Rae-Hyun;Seo, Keum-Young;Seo, Kyung-Won;Koo, Jin-Woo;Kyung, Ji-Hyun;Park, In-Hyeop;Lee, Young-Jin;Son, Yeong-Mo;Lee, Kyeong-Hak
    • Journal of Korea Foresty Energy
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2006
  • This study was conducted to develope allometric equations and to estimate biomass, stem density, and biomass expansion factor for the three stand age classes (I-II, III-IV, and V-VI) of Japanese larch (Larix leptolepis) in Gapyeong area. Total dry weight (kg/tree) and aboveground biomass (ton/ha) were 57.8 and 71.1 for I-II class, 185.4 and 195.6 for III-IV class, and 1047.9 and 180.6 for V-VI class, respectively. Total above and belowground biomass (ton/ha) was 96.3 for I-II class, 265.7 for III-IV class, and 244.5 for V-VI class. The proportion (%) of stem to total biomass increased with stand age class and was 53.9 for I-II class, 55.7 for III-IV class, and 57.7 for V-VI class, respectively, while that of foliage decreased and was 7.1 for I-II class, 4.5 for III-IV class, 2.3 for V-VI class. Ratios of root to aboveground biomass were 0.35 for all age classes. Stem density ($g/cm^3$) differed between I-II class and III-VI class. Aboveground and total biomass expansion factors were 1.31-1.44 and 1.26-1.94. Our results showed that differences in stand density with stand age classes might influence allometric equation, stem density and ratios of aboveground biomass to stem biomass and total biomass to stem biomass (biomass expansion factors).

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Long-term Results of Surgical Correction for Partial Atrioventricular Septal Defects -Seventeen-year Experience - (부분방실중격결손증에 대한 외과적 교정의 장기 결과)

  • 이정렬;박천수;임홍국;김용진;노준량;배은정;노정일;윤용수
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.911-920
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we analyzed the long-term surgical outcome of partial atrioventricular septal defects during the past 17 years at Seoul National University Hospital. Material and Method: A retrospective analysis on mortality, survival, and reoperation and their risk factors was done in 93 patients who underwent surgical correction of partial atrioventricular septal defects between April 1986 and December 2002. 32 patients were male and 61 were female with a median age of 68 months (3∼818 months) and a mean follow-up period of 108 months (1∼200 months). Result: There were 4 operative deaths (4.3%) and one mortality during the follow-up period. 3, 5, 10, and 15 year actuarial survival rates were 95.7%, 94.3%, 94,3%, and 94.3%, respectively. After the surgical correction, left atrioventricular valve Incompetence was improved in 61patients (67.7%), remained same as the preoperative status in 14 patients (15.1%), and was aggravated in 12 patients (12.9%). Reoperation was performed in 8 patients (9.0%) after a mean interval of 38.6 months (3∼136 months). Freedom from reoperation rates at 3, 5, 10, and 15 years after surgical correction were 94.0%, 91.4%, 91.4%, and 88,2%, respectively Reasons for reoperation were 7 left atrioventricular valve incompetence, 2 left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, a residual atrial septal defect, a left atrioventricular valve stenosis, and a right ventricular failure. Left ventricular outflow tract obstruction was the only statistically significant factor. In ten patients, significant arrhythmia was developed and three of them were supraventricular arrhythmia. Complete atrioventricular block occurred in 7 patients and permanent pacemakers were implanted in six of them. Conclusion: Surgical corrections of partial atrioventricular septal defects were performed with low operative mortality. Since left atrioventricular valve incompetence was the most common cause of reoperation and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction was the only risk factor for reoperation, a precise estimation of the left atrioventricular valve morphology and the structure of left ventricular outflow tract are needed. Although left ventricular outflow tract obstruction rarely developed, reoperation was frequently required and resection of subaortic tissue could be peformed but the possibility of recurrence was high, so modified Konno operation could be performed with satisfactory results. Complete atrioventricular block developed frequently in early periods, but was overcome with a precise anatomical understanding of conduction system and experience.

The Influential Factor Analysis in the Technology Valuation of The Agri-Food Industry and the Simulation-Based Valuation Analysis (농식품 산업의 기술평가 영향요인 분석과 시뮬레이션 기반 기술평가 비교)

  • Kim, Sang-gook;Jun, Seung-pyo;Park, Hyun-woo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.277-307
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    • 2016
  • Since 2011, DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) method has been used initiatively for valuating R&D technology assets in the agricultural food industry and recently technology valuation based on royalties comparison among technology transfer transactions has been also carried out in parallel when evaluating the technology assets such as new seed development technologies. Since the DCF method which has been known until now has many input variables to be estimated, sophisticated estimation has been demanded at the time of technology valuation. In addition, considering more similar trading cases when applying sales transaction comparison or industry norm method based on information of technology transfer royalty, it is an important issue that should be taken into account in the same way in the Agri-Food industry. The main input variables used for technology valuation in the Agri-Food industry are life cycle of technology asset, the financial information related to the Agri-Food industry, discount rate, and technology contribution rate. The latest infrastructure building and data updating related to technology valuation has been carried out on a regular basis in the evaluation organization of the Agri-Food segment. This study verifies the key variables that give the most important impact on the results for the existing technology valuation in the Agri-Food industry and clarifies the difference between the existing valuation result and the outcome by referring the support information that is derived through the latest input information applied in DCF method. In addition, while presenting the scheme to complement fragment information which the latest input data just influence result of technology valuation, we tried to perform comparative analysis between the existing valuation results and the evaluated outcome after the latest of reference data for making a decision the input values to be estimated in DCF. To perform these analyzes, it was first selected the representative cases evaluated past in the Agri-Food industry, applied a sensitivity analysis for input variables based on these selected cases, and then executed a simulation analysis utilizing the key input variables derived from sensitivity analysis. The results of this study is to provide the information which there are the need for modernization of the data related to the input variables that are utilized during valuating technology assets in the Agri-Food sector and for building the infrastructure of the key input variables in DCF. Therefore it is expected to provide more fruitful information about the results of valuation.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Residual Petroleum Hydrocarbons using a Foodweb Bioaccumulation Model (먹이연쇄 생물축적 모형을 이용한 잔류유류오염물질의 생태위해성평가)

  • Hwang, Sang-Il;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 2009
  • Residual petroleum hydrocarbons after an oil spill may accumulate in the marine benthic ecosystem due to their high hydrophobicity. A lot of monitoring data are required for the estimation of ecosystem exposure to residual petrochemicals in an ecological risk assessment in the affected region. To save time and cost, the environmental exposure to them in the affected ecosystem can also be assessed using a simple food-web bioaccumulation model. In this study, we evaluated residual concentrations of four selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (phenanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene) in a hypothetic benthic ecosystem composed of six species under two exposure scenarios. Body-residue concentration ranged 5~250 mg/kg body depending on trophic positions in an extreme scenario in which the aqueous concentrations of PAHs were assumed to be one-tenth of their aqueous solubility. In addition, bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) were evaluated for model species. The logarithm of bioconcentration factor (log BCF) linearly increased with increasing the logarithm of 1-octanol-water partition coefficient (log $K_{OW}$) until log $K_{OW}$ of 7.0, followed by a gradual decrease with further increase in log $K_{OW}$ without metabolic degradation. Biomagnification became significant when log $K_{OW}$ of a pollutant exceeded 5.0 in the model ecosystem, indicating that investigation of food-web structure should be critical to predict biomagnifications in the affected ecosystem because log $K_{OW}$ values of many petrochemicals are higher than 5.0. Although further research is required for better site-specific evaluation of exposure, the model simulation can be used to estimate the level of the ecosystem exposure to residual oil contaminants at the screening level.

The Estimation of Marine Environmental Capacity for the Reception of Cooling Water from HTPP in Southern Waters of Cheju Island using a 3-D Hydrodynamic Model (화순화력발전소 주변해역의 온배수 환경용량 산정)

  • Kim Gwang-Su;Choi Young-Chan;Lee Moon-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2000
  • The field surveys and the measurements of seawater temperatures were conducted every month from 1997 to 1999, and the distributions of seawater temperature were simulated and reproduced by a three dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model over the southern waters of Cheju island. In order to estimate the marine environmental capacity for the reception of the heat loads of cooling water discharged from Hwasoon Thermal Power Plant(HTPP) in the study area, the simulations for predicting the situation of unfavorable environment in which marine organisms might not be satisfied with change in seawater temperature were peformed using a three dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model by controlling quantitatively the heat loads of cooling water from HTPP Currently, HTPP discharges cooling water of 35.9℃ into the sea as much as 112,800m³/day in summer. As the results of simulations, the more the heat loads from the power plant increase, the more increase the seawater temperatures around the water areas adjacent to the power plant. In case the heat loads of cooling water from HTPP become about 5 times as high as the present loads, seawater temperatures at near-shore waters adjacent to HTPP appear to be increased to the extent of 0.5℃ above the existing seawater temperature in summer. The marine environmental capacity for the reception of thermal discharge from HTPP is estimated to be about 530×10/sup 6/kcal/day which is equivalent to the increase of a factor of 2 in the temperature of cooling water without any change in the discharge rate of cooling water or which is equivalent to the increase of a factor of 4.6 in the discharge rate of cooling water without any change in the temperature of cooling water. Comparing the case of the increase in the discharge rate of cooling water with the case of the increase in the temperature of cooling water on the basis of the same heat loads of 530×10/sup 6/kal/day, the former case is expected to increase seawater temperature a little higher and to extend the area affected by heat loads a little broader.

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Impacts of R&D and Smallness of Scale on the Total Factor Productivity by Industry (R&D와 규모의 영세성이 산업별 총요소생산성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Dong-Ki;Lee, Bu-Hyung;Joo, Won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2007
  • There were many comprehensive analyses conducted within the existing research activities wherein factors affecting technology progress including investment in R&D vis-${\Box}$-vis their influences act as the determinants of TFP. Note, however, that there were few comprehensive analysis in the industrial research performed regarding the impact of the economy of scale as it affects TFP; most of these research studies dealt with the analysis of the non -parametric Malmquist productivity index or used the stochastic frontier production function models. No comprehensive analysis on the impacts of individual independent variables affecting TFP was performed. Therefore, this study obtained the TFP increase rate of each industry by analyzing the factors of the existing growth accounting equation and comprehensively analyzed the TFP determinants by constructing a comprehensive analysis model considering the investment in R&D and economy of scale (smallness by industry) as the influencers of TFP by industry. First, for the TFP increase rate of the 15 industries as a whole, the annual average increase rate for 1993${\sim}$ 1997 was approximately 3.8% only; during 1999${\sim}$ 2000 following the foreign exchange crisis, however, the annual increase rate rose to approximately 7.8%. By industry, the annual average increase rate of TFP between 1993 and 2000 stood at 11.6%, the highest in the electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing business and IT manufacturing sector. In contrast, a -0.4% increase rate was recorded in the furniture and other product manufacturing sectors. In the case of the service industry, the TFP increase rate was 7.3% in the transportation, warehousing, and communication sectors. This is much higher than the 2.9% posted in the electricity, water, and gas sectors and -3.7% recorded in the wholesale, food, and hotel businesses. The results of the comprehensive analysis conducted on the determinants of TFP showed that the correlations between R&D and TFP in general were positive (+) correlations whose significance has yet to be validated; in the model where the self-employed and unpaid family workers were used as proxy variables indicating the smallness of industry out of the total number of workers, however, significant negative (-) correlations were noted. On the other hand, the estimation factors of variables surrogating the smallness of scale in each industry showed that a consistently high "smallness of scale" in an industry means a decrease in the increase rate of TFP in the same industry.

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