• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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Machine Learning Model for Recommending Products and Estimating Sales Prices of Reverse Direct Purchase (역직구 상품 추천 및 판매가 추정을 위한 머신러닝 모델)

  • Kyu Ik Kim;Berdibayev Yergali;Soo Hyung Kim;Jin Suk Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.176-182
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    • 2023
  • With about 80% of the global economy expected to shift to the global market by 2030, exports of reverse direct purchase products, in which foreign consumers purchase products from online shopping malls in Korea, are growing 55% annually. As of 2021, sales of reverse direct purchases in South Korea increased 50.6% from the previous year, surpassing 40 million. In order for domestic SMEs(Small and medium sized enterprises) to enter overseas markets, it is important to come up with export strategies based on various market analysis information, but for domestic small and medium-sized sellers, entry barriers are high, such as lack of information on overseas markets and difficulty in selecting local preferred products and determining competitive sales prices. This study develops an AI-based product recommendation and sales price estimation model to collect and analyze global shopping malls and product trends to provide marketing information that presents promising and appropriate product sales prices to small and medium-sized sellers who have difficulty collecting global market information. The product recommendation model is based on the LTR (Learning To Rank) methodology. As a result of comparing performance with nDCG, the Pair-wise-based XGBoost-LambdaMART Model was measured to be excellent. The sales price estimation model uses a regression algorithm. According to the R-Squared value, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine performs best in this model.

The Effect of Trade Agreements on Korea's Bilateral Trade Volume: Mitigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty in Trading Countries

  • Heedae Park;Jiyoung An
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

Estimation of Setting Time of Super Retarding Mortar Using Settimeter (세티메타를 이용한 초지연 모르타르의 응결시간 추정)

  • Jeong, Yeong-Jin;Hyun, Seung-Yong;Han, Jun-Hui;Kim, Jong;Han, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.673-682
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the delay in setting characteristics of mortar influenced by variations in super retarding agent(SRA) content, curing temperature, and strength levels. Utilizing a settimeter, the research introduces an objective approach to accurately determine the setting time of concrete with SRA under diverse environmental and material mixing conditions at construction sites. The findings indicate that the settimeter, in conjunction with a nonlinear regression model, can effectively estimate the setting time of super retarding mortar. Optimal management of the initial setting is recommended at approximately 45ST and the final setting around 80ST. This methodology enables more effective quality control in the setting times of super retarding concrete.

An Efficient Estimation of Place Brand Image Power Based on Text Mining Technology (텍스트마이닝 기반의 효율적인 장소 브랜드 이미지 강도 측정 방법)

  • Choi, Sukjae;Jeon, Jongshik;Subrata, Biswas;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.113-129
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    • 2015
  • Location branding is a very important income making activity, by giving special meanings to a specific location while producing identity and communal value which are based around the understanding of a place's location branding concept methodology. Many other areas, such as marketing, architecture, and city construction, exert an influence creating an impressive brand image. A place brand which shows great recognition to both native people of S. Korea and foreigners creates significant economic effects. There has been research on creating a strategically and detailed place brand image, and the representative research has been carried out by Anholt who surveyed two million people from 50 different countries. However, the investigation, including survey research, required a great deal of effort from the workforce and required significant expense. As a result, there is a need to make more affordable, objective and effective research methods. The purpose of this paper is to find a way to measure the intensity of the image of the brand objective and at a low cost through text mining purposes. The proposed method extracts the keyword and the factors constructing the location brand image from the related web documents. In this way, we can measure the brand image intensity of the specific location. The performance of the proposed methodology was verified through comparison with Anholt's 50 city image consistency index ranking around the world. Four methods are applied to the test. First, RNADOM method artificially ranks the cities included in the experiment. HUMAN method firstly makes a questionnaire and selects 9 volunteers who are well acquainted with brand management and at the same time cities to evaluate. Then they are requested to rank the cities and compared with the Anholt's evaluation results. TM method applies the proposed method to evaluate the cities with all evaluation criteria. TM-LEARN, which is the extended method of TM, selects significant evaluation items from the items in every criterion. Then the method evaluates the cities with all selected evaluation criteria. RMSE is used to as a metric to compare the evaluation results. Experimental results suggested by this paper's methodology are as follows: Firstly, compared to the evaluation method that targets ordinary people, this method appeared to be more accurate. Secondly, compared to the traditional survey method, the time and the cost are much less because in this research we used automated means. Thirdly, this proposed methodology is very timely because it can be evaluated from time to time. Fourthly, compared to Anholt's method which evaluated only for an already specified city, this proposed methodology is applicable to any location. Finally, this proposed methodology has a relatively high objectivity because our research was conducted based on open source data. As a result, our city image evaluation text mining approach has found validity in terms of accuracy, cost-effectiveness, timeliness, scalability, and reliability. The proposed method provides managers with clear guidelines regarding brand management in public and private sectors. As public sectors such as local officers, the proposed method could be used to formulate strategies and enhance the image of their places in an efficient manner. Rather than conducting heavy questionnaires, the local officers could monitor the current place image very shortly a priori, than may make decisions to go over the formal place image test only if the evaluation results from the proposed method are not ordinary no matter what the results indicate opportunity or threat to the place. Moreover, with co-using the morphological analysis, extracting meaningful facets of place brand from text, sentiment analysis and more with the proposed method, marketing strategy planners or civil engineering professionals may obtain deeper and more abundant insights for better place rand images. In the future, a prototype system will be implemented to show the feasibility of the idea proposed in this paper.

Methodology for Determining RSE Spacing for Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration(VII) Based Traffic Information System (Focused on Uninterrupted Traffic Flow) (차량-인프라 연계(VII) 기반 교통정보시스템의 RSE 설치간격 결정 방법론 (연속류를 중심으로))

  • Park, Jun-Hyeong;O, Cheol;Im, Hui-Seop;Gang, Gyeong-Pyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.29-44
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    • 2009
  • A variety of research efforts, using advanced wireless communication technologies, have been made to develop more reliable traffic information system. This study presents a novel decentralized traffic information system based on vehicle infrastructure integration (VII). A major objective of this study was also to devise a methodology for determining appropriate spacing of roadside equipment (RSE) to fully exploit the benefits of the proposed VII-based traffic information system. Evaluation of travel time estimation accuracy was conducted with various RSE spacings and the market penetration rates of equipped vehicle. A microscopic traffic simulator, VISSIM, was used to obtain individual vehicle travel information for the evaluation. In addition, the ANOVA tests were conducted to draw statistically significant results of simulation analyses in determining the RSE spacing. It is expected that the proposed methodology will be a valuable precursor to implementing capability-enhanced next generation traffic information systems under the forthcoming ubiquitous transportation environment.

A Comparative Study for Estimation of Greenhouse Gas for Local Government`s Sustainable Transport (지속가능교통 평가를 위한 온실가스 배출량 산정 방법론의 지자체 적용 및 비교 연구)

  • Yu, Byeong-Yong;Bae, Sang-Hun;Han, Sang-Yong;Kim, Geon-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2011
  • In effort to estimate sustainability of the transportation sector, this study conducts a comparative analysis of methodology suggested for measuring greenhouse gas emission. There are two approaches proposed by the UN IPCC: 1) top-down approach (TDA) based on the amount oil sales, and 2) bottom-up approach (BUA) utilizing the velocity of moving source and traffic volume data. The subject areas for analysis were selected based on research results by the Korea Transportation Institute that evaluate traffic sustainability of each local government. Gwacheon-si being one of the top ranked areas in sustainability, and Anseong-si being ranked at the 7th level were analyzed. By the tier 1 methodology, Gwacheon-si and Anseong-si are estimated to create 74,813ton/yr, and 584,125ton/yr of the greenhouse gas emission, respectively. The tier 3 methodology, however, estimates Gwacheon-si and Anseong-si to create 91,462ton/yr, and 163,801ton/yr of the emission, respectively. Comparison of the two estimated emissions shows considerable differences; i.e., the tier 3 method over estimates Gwacheon-si's emission by 22.3% whereas it underestimates Anseong-si's greenhouse gas emission by the factor of about 3.5 compared to the emissions obtained from the tier 1 method. The result from this study implies that the traffic-sustainability-index based grade of each local government can be evaluated differently by the method adopted for measuring greenhouse gas emission.

Calculation of Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emission on Inter-regional Road Network Using ITS Information (지능형교통체계(ITS) 정보를 이용한 지역 간 도로의 온실가스 및 대기오염물질 배출량 산정)

  • Wu, Seung Kook;Kim, Youngkook;Park, Sangjo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2013
  • Conventionally, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector have been estimated using the fuel consumption (i.e. Tier 1 method). However, the GHG emissions on road networks may not be practically estimated using the Tier 1 method because it is not practical to monitor fuel consumption on a road segment. Further, air pollutant emissions on a road may not be estimated efficiently by the Tier 1 method either due to the diverse characteristics of vehicles, such as travel speed, vehicle type, model year, fuel type, etc. Given these conditions, the goal of this study is to propose a Tier 3 level methodology to calculate $CO_2$ and $NO_X$ emissions on inter-regional roads using the information from ITS infrastructure. The methodology may avoid the under-estimation issue caused by the concavity of emission factor curves because the ITS speed or volume information is aggregated by a short time interval. The proposed methodology was applied to 4 road segments as a case study. The results show that the management of heavy vehicles' speed is important to control the $CO_2$ and $NO_X$ emissions on road networks.

A Study on the Applicability of Water Footprint Methodology in Korea by Analyzing Domestic Water Resources Statistics (국내 물 자원 통계자료 분석을 통한 물발자국 방법론 국내 적용 가능성 확인 연구)

  • Kim, Sun Uk;Jo, Seo Weon;Ahn, Jae Hyun;Lee, Han Woong;Yeon, Sung Mo
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.146-153
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    • 2018
  • The water footprint is an important component of the Single Market for Green Product initiative based on the EU's Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe. In July 2014, the EU has established the International Standard for Water Footprint (ISO 14046) and Korea has complied with the Korean Industrial Standard (KS I ISO 14046) in April 2015. If a certification system based on the international standard (ISO 14046) is introduced, developing countries such as India and Vietnam, which are not equipped with bases, can become a trade barriers in exporting, so Korea should establish a strategy to reverse them. On the other hand, water footprints are designed to take into account local environmental impacts when compared to similar footprints (eg, carbon footprint) using LCA, so that products manufactured and manufactured in Korea will have an impact on domestic waters Should be considered. Therefore, the method of the water footprint should conform to the standard for compatibility with other countries. In order to consider the domestic water condition, it is necessary to identify suitable indicator or factor for estimating water footprint on Korea. For this purpose, this study analyzed the water footprint estimation study conducted at domestic and foreign based on international standards and through the analysis of statistical data related to domestic water resources, we confirmed the applicability of the water footprint methodology in Korea.

Development of Evaluation Method for Environmental Friendly Property in National Highway (일반국도의 환경친화성 평가방법론 개발)

  • Jeon, Woo-Hoon;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2010
  • As the Concept "how environmental friendly" becomes more and more important in road construction. However, so far there is no estimation method. Environmental friendly concept can be incorporated at the plan level in order to influence decision making, and support policies that affect environment. The overall goal of this study was to develop environmental friendly concept measures for the national highway and to develop a methodology to implement a more environmental friendly concept. The research identified 8 performance measures through a project analysis that could address environmental impact assessment system's ten strategic goals - Topography, Wildlife, hydrology, landuse, air quality, water quality, soil, waste, noise, landscape. The qualitatively and quantitatively evaluation approach was selected as the decision support framework and performance measure were investigated using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and pilot corridor for a 10 section and calculate the index values. The methodology was applied to a pilot corridor comprised of a 120km section of national highway in korea. The methodology made it possible to identify the specific performance measures that need improvement to enhance the overall environmental friendly concept. It is fairly intuitive, based on readily available data, and is easy to apply. It provides a powerful tool for government to assess the relative environmental friendly conceptof their transportation corridors now and in the future. It allows for comparisons within a corridor and with other corridors and identifies the improvements needed to enhance the environmental friendly concept.

Methodology for Estimating the Probability of Damage to a Heat Transmission Pipe (열수송관 파손확률 추정 방법론 개발)

  • Kong, Myeongsik;Kang, Jaemo
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2021
  • Losses of both life and property increased from damage to underground pipe such as heat transmission pipe buried underground in downtown because pipes are gradually aging. Considering the characteristics of the heat transmission pipe, which is not exposed to the outside and difficult to immediately identify problems such as damage, it is realistic to indirectly check the condition of the facility based on the historical information that is periodically collected through facility maintenance. In this study, a methodology for estimating the damage probability was developed by examining the history information of the heat transmission pipe, deriving an evaluation factor that is related to the damage probability. The contribution factor of the damage probability were reviewed by analyzing not only the guidelines for maintenance of heat transmission pipe of advanced European countries and domestic district heating companies, but also the cases of waterworks with similar characteristics. Evaluation factors were selected by considering not only the correlation with the damage probability but also the possibility of securing data. Based on 1999, when the construction technology and standards of heat transmission pipe changed, the damage probability estimation function according to the period of use was divided into the case of being buried before 1998 and the case of being buried after 1999, and presented. In addition, the damage probability was corrected by assigning weights according to the measured data for each evaluation factor such as the diameter, use, and management authority.