• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.115-129
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• 2023

Purpose - This study empirically analyzes the consumer value of risk management associated with illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing of fishery products imported to Korea. The global regulatory paradigm for IUU fishing has shifted from production-centered to market-centered. As a result, changes in the international fisheries trade environment emphasizing "transparency" and "legality" of the production process are accelerating. Therefore, changes in the management systems of fishery products entering the country are also needed. Accordingly, this study estimated the consumer value for risk management of IUU fishing, targeting major fish species imported to Korea, and derived the feasibility of introducing related policies. Design/methodology - This study used the choice experiment as an analysis model to estimate consumers' willingness to pay for the "possibility to check for IUU fishing." The choice experiment assumes that the value of a good or service is composed of separable attributes and that the sum of the part-worth of these individual attributes becomes the total value. In this study, respondents were presented with profiles comprising three attributes (country of origin, price, and possibility of checking IUU fishing) and the levels of frozen poulp squid, the subject of the analysis. The participants were asked to select their preferred profile. The marginal willingness to pay for each attribute was derived from the results of the respondents' choices using conditional logit model estimates. Findings - There is a marked difference in utility based on the preference of the country of origin of fishery products among consumers. In addition, the utility of fishery products that have undergone IUU fishing verification was observed to be higher, with the utility marked to be higher for lower prices. Originality/value - Estimating the policy value of the risk management in IUU fishing of imported fisheries products in this study is a novel attempt that has never been conducted before. Several studies have been conducted to assess the risk of IUU fishing associated with the import of fishery products internationally. However, such studies are yet to be conducted in Korea. Instead, policies and studies have focused on issues related to complying with trading partners' legal and transparent standards for exporting fishery products. This study should be the beginning of more in-depth empirical and theoretical explorations to establish order in the domestic seafood market and respond to changes in international regulations on IUU fishing.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.5D
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• pp.605-610
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• 2009

The either satisfaction levels or limits of tolerance levels felt by the users in the certain space/region should be examined for measuring social capacity on the total amount of vehicles. The reliability of measuring social carrying capacity depends primarily on decreasing the strategic responding biases. To induce the honest responses to preferences, Dichotomous Choice which is specifically known as the Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice was adopted in this research to suggest the measurement methodology of social carrying capacity on the total amount of vehicles in U-do island. The empirical test was carried out the U-do island, an administrative district of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. The number of vehicles satisfied by the 10% of residents was 390 and the satisfactory vehicle number was decreased to 132 extended to 90% of residents. This research, based on the political decision making criteria, set up the social carrying capacity in U-do island. The vehicle number satisfied by 50% of residents was 227, which meant the same number of residents turn to be supporter in case of political actions.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.1D
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• pp.135-143
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• 2009

Integrating the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) sensor technologies using the precise GPS Carrier phase measurements is a methodology that has been widely applied in those application fields requiring accurate and reliable positioning and attitude determination; ranging from 'kinematic geodesy', to mobile mapping and imaging, to precise navigation. However, such integrated system may not fulfil the demanding performance requirements when the baseline length between reference and mobil user GPS receiver is grater than a few tens of kilometers. This is because their positioning/attitude determination is still very dependent on the errors of the GPS observations, so-called "baseline dependent errors". This limitation can be remedied by the integration of GPS and INS sensors, using multiple reference stations. Hence, in order to derive the GPS distance dependent errors, this research proposes measurement processing algorithms for multiple reference stations, such as a reference station ambiguity resolution procedure using linear combination techniques, a error estimation based on Kalman filter and a error interpolation. In addition, all the algorithms are evaluated by processing real observations and results are summarized in this paper.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.3C
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• pp.179-186
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• 2008

Pressuremeter test estimates the deformational properties of soil from the relationship between applied pressure and the displacement of cavity wall. It is general to utilize the reloading curve for the estimation of deformational properties of soil because the initial loading curve can be affected by the disturbance caused by boring. On the other hand, the instrumental resolution or the variation of measured data makes it hard to estimate the maximum shear modulus from pressuremeter test results. This study suggested the methodology estimating the maximum shear modulus from pressuremeter test directly, based on the curve fitting of reloading curve. In addition, the difference was taken into account between the stress state around the probe in reloading and that of the in-situ state. Pressuremeter tests were conducted for 15 cases using a large calibration chamber, together with a number of reference tests. The maximum shear moduli taken from suggested method were compared with those from empirical correlation and bender element test.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2A
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• pp.119-130
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• 2009

Seismic fragility curves of a structure represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration ($S_a$) and spectral displacement ($S_d$). So those are very essential to evaluate the structural seismic performance and seismic risk. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges. In order to construct numerical fragility curve of bridge structure using nonlinear time history analysis, a set of ground motions corresponding to design spectrum are artificially generated. Assuming a lognormal distribution, the fragility curve is estimated by using the methodology proposed by Shinozuka et al. PGA is simple and generally used parameter in fragility curve as ground motion intensity. However, the PGA has not good relationship with the inelastic structural behavior. So, $S_a$ and $S_d$ with more direct relationship for structural damage are used in fragility analysis as more useful intensity measures instead of PGA. The numerical fragility curves based on nonlinear time history analysis are compared with those obtained from simple method suggested in HAZUS program.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.267-279
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• 2023

Data modelling and interpretation for structural health monitoring (SHM) field data are critical for evaluating structural performance and quantifying the vulnerability of infrastructure systems. In order to improve the data modelling accuracy, and extend the application range from data regression analysis to out-of-sample forecasting analysis, an improved most likely heteroscedastic Gaussian process (iMLHGP) methodology is proposed in this study by the incorporation of the outof-sample forecasting algorithm. The proposed iMLHGP method overcomes this limitation of constant variance of Gaussian process (GP), and can be used for estimating non-stationary typhoon-induced response statistics with high volatility. The first attempt at performing data regression and forecasting analysis on structural responses using the proposed iMLHGP method has been presented by applying it to real-world filed SHM data from an instrumented cable-stay bridge during typhoon events. Uncertainty quantification and correlation analysis were also carried out to investigate the influence of typhoons on bridge strain data. Results show that the iMLHGP method has high accuracy in both regression and out-of-sample forecasting. The iMLHGP framework takes both data heteroscedasticity and accurate analytical processing of noise variance (replace with a point estimation on the most likely value) into account to avoid the intensive computational effort. According to uncertainty quantification and correlation analysis results, the uncertainties of strain measurements are affected by both traffic and wind speed. The overall change of bridge strain is affected by temperature, and the local fluctuation is greatly affected by wind speed in typhoon conditions.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1321-1330
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• 2023

This study attempts to address the problem of 3D pose estimation for multiple human objects through a single image generated during the character development process that can be used in augmented reality. In the existing top-down method, all objects in the image are first detected, and then each is reconstructed independently. The problem is that inconsistent results may occur due to overlap or depth order mismatch between the reconstructed objects. The goal of this study is to solve these problems and develop a single network that provides consistent 3D reconstruction of all humans in a scene. Integrating a human body model based on the SMPL parametric system into a top-down framework became an important choice. Through this, two types of collision loss based on distance field and loss that considers depth order were introduced. The first loss prevents overlap between reconstructed people, and the second loss adjusts the depth ordering of people to render occlusion inference and annotated instance segmentation consistently. This method allows depth information to be provided to the network without explicit 3D annotation of the image. Experimental results show that this study's methodology performs better than existing methods on standard 3D pose benchmarks, and the proposed losses enable more consistent reconstruction from natural images.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.503-511
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• 2017

In order to estimate the demand for water resources planning and operation, methodology for determining the size of water supply facilities has been mainly applied to agricultural water, unlike living and industrial water, which reflects actual usage trends. This inevitably leads to an overestimation of agricultural water and can lead to an imbalance in the supply and demand of each use in terms of the total water resources plan. In this study, the difference of approaches of concept of net consumption was examined in comparison with the existing methodology and the characteristics of agricultural water demand were analyzed by applying it to whole Jeju Island. SWAT model was applied to estimate the amount of evapotranspiration, which is a key factor in estimating demand, and watershed modeling was performed to reflect geographical features, weather, runoff and water use characteristics of Jeju Island. For the past period (1992~2013), demand of Jeju Island as a whole was analyzed as 427 mm per year, and it showed a relatively high demand around the eastern and western coastal regions. Annual demand and seasonal variation characteristics of 10 river basins with watershed area of $30km^2$ or more were also analyzed. In addition, by applying the cultivated area of each crop in 2020 in the future, it is estimated that the demand corresponding to the 10-year frequency drought is 54% of the amount demanded in the previous research. This is due to the difference in approach depending on the purpose of the demand calculation. From the viewpoint of water resource management and operation, additional demand is expected as much as the net consumption. However, from the actual supply perspective, it can be judged that a facility plan that meets the existing demand amount is necessary. In order to utilize the methodologies and results presented in this study in practice, it is necessary to make a reasonable discussion in terms of policy and institutional as well as engineering verification.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-19
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• 2007

1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.