• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.123-133
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• 2010

There are many occasions on which the critical decisions should be made in software projects. Those decisions are basically related to estimating and predicting project parameters such as costs, efforts, and duration. The project managers are looking for methods to make better decisions. The decisions about project parameters are recommended to be performed based on historical data of Similar projects. The measures of the tasks in past projects may have different shapes of distributions. we need to add those measures to get a predicted project measures. To add measures with different shapes of distribution, we need to use Monte Carlo Simulation. In this paper, we suggest applying Monte Carlo Simulation for supporting decision makings in software project. We implemented best-fit case and scheduling estimations with Cristal Ball, a commercial product of Monte Carlo simulation and showed how the suggested approach supports those critical decision makings.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.665-677
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• 2022

This paper proposes a new estimation method based on the maximum product of spacings for estimating unknown parameters of the three-parameter Weibull distribution under a generalized Type-II progressive hybrid censoring scheme which guarantees a constant number of observations and an appropriate experiment duration. The proposed approach is appropriate for a situation where the maximum likelihood estimation is invalid, especially, when the shape parameter is less than unity. Furthermore, it presents the enhanced performance in terms of the bias through the Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, the superiority of this approach is revealed even under the condition where the maximum likelihood estimation satisfies the classical asymptotic properties. Finally, to illustrate the practical application of the proposed approach, the real data analysis is conducted, and the superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated through a simple goodness-of-fit test.

• The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.193-205
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• 1999

This study was carried out to identify the important risk factors for reduced bone mass of postmenopausal RA patients and to develop discriminant function which can classify postmenopausal RA patients with either reduced or normal bone mass. Through the literature review, individual characteristics such as age, body weight, height, age of menarche, duration of menopause, gravity, parity, and breast feeding period and factors of life style such as milk consumption exercise habit, alcohol intake, cigarette smoking, coffee consumpt ion , disease activity, corticosteroid therapy were identified as influencing factors of reduced bone mass in RA patients Sixty eight postmenopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis aged between 42 and 76 were selected among those who checked bone mineral density in lumbar spine and femur from october, 1998 to Apr il, 1999 at Dong-a university hospital in Pusan. Assessment of disease activity, duration of disease and corticosteroid therapy were made by the same rheumatologist and included Ritchie articular index, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and C-reactive protein on measuring bone mineral density. Cumulative steroid dosage was calculated from the daily dosage multiplied by t h e number of days received. The information of other risk factor including health assessment score, individual characteristics and life style factors were collected by questionnaire. Bone mineral density(BMD) was measured using DXA at lumbar spine and femoral Ward's triangle. Discriminant function(regression equation) was developed for estimating the likelihood of the presence or absence of reduced bone mass. The results are as follows: Among the subjects, thirteen(19.1%) exhibited osteoporosis in lumbar spine and twenty four(35.3%) exhibited osteoporosis in femoral Ward's triangle. For lumbar spine, the variables significant were age, body weight, health assessment score, while for femoral Ward's triangle, age, body weight, duration of disease. But disease activity and corticosteroid therapy were not signigicant to distinguish reduced bone mass from normal bone mass. When the discriminant function was evaluated by comparing the observed out come with predicted out come, the discriminant function correctly classified 85.4% of patients with reduce bone mass and 63.0% of patients with normal bone mass in the lumbar spine and 100% of patients with reduced bone mass and 9.1% of patients with normal bone mass in the femoral Ward's triangle. In summary, we found that osteoporosis in postmenopausal women with RA is more evident at the femur than the lumbar spine. Also the important discriminant factors of reduced bone mass postmenopausal women with RA were age, body weight , duration of disease and health disability. In nursing situation, the efforts to improve of functional capacity of postmenopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis should be considered to prevent osteoporosis and fractures. Also we recommend those postmenopausal women with RA who are classified as a group of the reduced bone mass in the discriminant function should examine the bone mineral density to further examine the usefulness of this discriminant function.

• Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.237-245
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• 2011

Purpose: The present study was conducted to investigate whether certain repeated physical and/or chemical stimuli added on ophthalmic lenses might induce any changes of the functions of lens coatings. Methods: The changes in lens surface, light transmittance, foggy duration, durability of ophthalmic lenses were determined after the application of tearing-off with tape, rubbing with acetone, soaking in acetone or distilled water of ophthalmic lens (CR-39 material) as physical and/or chemical stimuli. Results: The change of ophthalmic lens surface was detected after soaking in acetone for longer than 30 minutes by observing the lens surface to figure out the functional change of hard coating. The ophthalmic lens soaked in distilled water for 180 minutes showed little functional change of anti-reflection coating as 1% by measuring light transmittance of lens. However, the function of anti-reflection coating was almost disappeared after the ophthalmic lens was soaked in acetone for 60 minutes. The foggy duration of ophthalmic lens soaked in acetone was increased by estimating foggy duration of lens. The lens coating was shown to be defected when the pre-damaged ophthalmic lenses were torn off with tape, rubbed with acetone and soaked in distilled water or acetone by observing pre-damaged lens surface to evaluate its durability. Conclusions: The careful management during ophthalmic lens dispensing or usual eyeglass wearing is needed since the change in ophthalmic lens coatings was shown by repeated physical and/or chemical stimuli.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.1 no.3 s.3
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• pp.111-122
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• 2001

A reliability analysis is conducted on the process in estimating frequency rainfalls. 39 year of annual maximum data in Seoul station are collected to analyze the reliability in the frequency analysis technique. Frequency analysis is carried out for the nine types of distribution function and three types of parameter estimation method which are currently used in Korea. Reliability Analysis is conducted for the frequency rainfalls determined by 3 types(maximum, median, selected) of method to select the adequate rainfall. Computed rainfalls of each duration and return period are standardized to find the distribution of the frequency rainfall. It shows that the resulting rainfall distribution fairly represents the normal distribution. Coefficient of variation of 0.0456 is computed to be used in estimating the reliability based design rainfall.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.63-72
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• 1982

To maintain an optimum condition for the plant growth on upland soil, the irrigation planning after the natural rainfall should be given enormous considerations on the rainfall effectiveness. This study has been intended to develop the computer model for estimating the effec- tiveness of the rainfall. The computer model should also estimated the infiltration due to the rainfall and the soil moisture deficiency at the root zone of the plant. For this purpose, the experiments of infiltration using rainfall simulator and the observations of the change of soil moisture content before and after rainfall were carried out. Needed input data for the developed model include final infiltration capacity and field capacity of the soil, porosity of the top soil, root depth of the plant, rainfall intensity and duration, and the Horton's decay coefficient. Among the needed input data for the developed model, final infiltration capacity and Horton's decay coefficient were determined by the experiments of infiltration. And from the result of the experiments, it is found that there is a great correlation between initial infiltration capacity and initial moisture content. And it is also found that the infiltration due to rainfall can be estimated with the Horton's equation. The developed model was tested by the experimental data with two rainfall intensities. Tests were conducted on the different root depths at each rainfall. Observed and estimated effective rainfalls were found to have great correlation. The result of the experiments showed that the effectiveness of the rainfall were 100%, so the comparisons were conducted by the comsumption rates of infiltration at each depth. The developed model can be also used for estimating the deficiency of rainfall, if the rainfall is not sufficient to the needed soil moisture. But, test was not carried out.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.44-52
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• 2012

In the cost management of public construction projects, it is an important issue to develop an adequate cost data for estimating the predetermined amount by various methods. For a long time, a standard of estimation in korea is used as a basis for estimating the predetermined amount of public construction. However, they did not have a reasonable cost data based on a labor and equipment productivity analysis. For this reason, it is difficult to make a reasonable and efficient estimation of the costs, and this situation presents an urgent need for more accurate cost data to use in an early phase. This study analyzed the productivity of form work by the CYCLONE model, and presented the model on the number of optimal labor through sensitivity analysis. This CYCLONE model can be useful in analyzing productivity on the various sizes of form. Also, the regression model to estimate the daily output can be used in predicting the amount of labor. Considering the work duration in the regression model is expected to make the daily output estimation much more accurate.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.108-116
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• 2022

Accurately predicting wartime resources requirements and preparing war supplies in peacetime is an important task that can determine the outcome of the war by guaranteeing the duration of the operation. The wartime warship damage rate is a measure of estimating the battle damage of our warships in the process of performing battles to achieve the war goal. In the previously studied wartime warship damage rate estimation method, when damage occurs, long-term repair is required due to the complexity and specificity of the ship structure. Only the case of a complete defeat at the level of sinking was defined as a damage, and even if it was impossible to perform a maritime operation mission, it was not estimated as a damage if the level of sinking was not reached. Therefore, in order to improve the reliability of the wartime warship damage rate, the equipment damage assessment level can be estimated based on the warhead weight of the threat weapon system, the vulnerability rate of the warship's equipment, and the warship's hull. In the future, it is expected that the estimation methodology proposed in this study will be used as a simulation logic when developing a model for analyzing the wartime resources requirements for the warship's equipment and hull.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.158-158
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• 2023

Characterizing the performance of precipitation (hereafter PRE) products in estimating the uncertainties in daily PRE in the era of global warming is of great value to the ecosystem's sustainability and human survival. This study intercompares the performance of different PRE products (gauge-based, satellite and reanalysis) sourced from the Frequent Rainfall Observations on GridS (FROGS) database over diverse climate zones in Africa and identifies regions where they depict minimal uncertainties in order to build optimal maps as a guide for different climate users. This is achieved by utilizing various techniques, including the triple collection (TC) approach, to assess the capabilities and limitations of different PRE products over nine climatic zones over the continent. For daily scale analysis, the uncertainties in light PRE (0.1 5mm/day) are prevalent over most regions in Africa during the study duration (2001-2016). Estimating the occurrence of extreme PRE events based on daily PRE 90th percentile suggests that extreme PRE is mainly detected over central Africa (CAF) region and some coastal regions of west Africa (WAF) where the majority of uncorrected satellite products show good agreement. The detection of PRE days and non-PRE days based on categorical statistics suggests that a perfect POD/FAR score is unattainable irrespective of the product type. Daily PRE uncertainties determined based on quantitative metrics show that consistent, satisfactory performance is demonstrated by the IMERG products (uncorrected), ARCv2, CHIRPSv2, 3B42v7.0 and PERSIANN_CDRv1r1 (corrected), and GPCC, CPC_v1.0, and REGEN_ALL (gauge) during the study period. The optimal maps that show the classification of products in regions where they depict reliable performance can be recommended for various usage for different stakeholders.

• The Korean Journal of Pain
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.184-194
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• 2023

Background: Degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis (DLS) is frequently associated with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) and conservative treatments such as epidural steroid injection do not have long-term benefits in LSS patients with DLS. This study evaluated the effectiveness of percutaneous epidural neuroplasty using a balloon catheter in patients with LSS and DLS. Methods: Patients' sex, age, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, stenosis grading, pain duration, location, pain intensity, and medications were retrieved from electronic medical records. At 1, 3, and 6 months following the procedure, data on pain severity, medication usage, and physical functional status were analyzed. A generalized estimating equations model was used at the six-month follow-up. Patients were divided into those with DLS (the spondylolisthesis group) and those without DLS (the no spondylolisthesis group) to evaluate whether the effects of percutaneous epidural neuroplasty using a balloon catheter were different. Results: A total of 826 patients were included (spondylolisthesis: 433 patients, 52.4%; no spondylolisthesis: 393 patients, 47.6%). Age, body mass index, hypertension, pain location, and stenosis grading were statistically different between the two groups. The generalized estimating equations analyses with unadjusted and adjusted estimation revealed a significant improvement in the estimated mean numerical rating scale of pain intensities compared to that at baseline in both groups (P < 0.001). Any adverse events that occurred were minor and temporary. Conclusions: Percutaneous epidural neuroplasty using a balloon catheter may be an alternative treatment option for patients with chronic LSS, regardless of accompanying DLS, who have had failed conservative management.