• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.604-605
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• 2015

To secure quality of dam construction needs appropriate construction duration. Tight construction schedule may have negative influence on infrastructure quality, work safety and maintenance cost. It is necessary to reflect proper construction duration in the planning phase. There have been standards for estimating construction duration of building and industrial complex development but dam construction have not. In order to estimate construction duration of CFRD, feasible study reports and design reports were analyzed to acquire available information. After that, considering on construction duration methods such as comparison with similar cases, approximate estimating formula, approximate quantity assumption were adapted to Critical Path items. Hence, this study present framework for construction duration estimating of CFRD in the planning phase. This framework can be applied other types of dam along the same line.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.397-402
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• 2013

In super-tall building construction projects, schedule risk factors which vertically change and are not found in the low and middle-rise building construction influence duration of a project by vertical attribute; and it makes hard to estimate activity or overall duration of a construction project. However, the existing duration estimating methods, that are based on quantity and productivity assuming activities of the same work item have the same risk and duration regardless of operation space, are not able to consider the schedule risk factors which change by the altitude of operation space. Therefore, in order to advance accuracy of duration estimation of super-tall building projects, the degree of changes of these risk factors according to altitude should be analyzed and incorporated into a duration estimating method. This research proposes a simulation model using Monte Carlo method for estimating activity duration incorporating schedule risk factors by weather conditions in a super-tall building. The research process is as follows. Firstly, the schedule risk factors in super-tall building are identified through literature and expert reviews, and occurrence of non-working days at high altitude by weather condition is identified as one of the critical schedule risk factors. Secondly, a calculating method of the vertical distributions of the weather factors such as temperature and wind speed is analyzed through literature reviews. Then, a probability distribution of the weather factors is developed using the weather database of the past decade. Thirdly, a simulation model and algorithms for estimating non-working days and duration of each activity is developed using Monte-Carlo method. Finally, sensitivity analysis and a case study are carried out for the validation of the proposed model.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.26-33
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• 2009

The required level of detail in scheduling depends on the stages in the construction life-cycle. The objective of this study is to provide a Standardized Schedule Model (SSM) with an aim to facilitate the estimating of construction duration in the planning stage. The SSM modularizes work items; establishes relations between preceding and succeeding activities; and calculates approximate construction duration. The estimated duration of the SSM was compared with the detailed duration from the commercial scheduling tool using actual work activities. The difference showed to be ranged between -3.1% and +15%, which demonstrates that the SSM can be feasibly applied to the approximate estimation of construction duration.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.531-534
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• 2001

At the beginning of construction, the estimation for the construction duration is very important to effectively control and use labors, builder's equipment, permanent and temporary materials, supplies and utilities, and money. In spite of the importance of the estimation for the construction duration, there is no estimation standard of optimal construction duration in korea. The purpose of this study is to suggest the estimation standard of optimal construction duration that is reasonable and systematical through developing the method for estimating, the construction duration. it is expected to be helpful for estimating, planning and scheduling. The analysis is executed the existing estimation standards and consulting the results of the interviews with the on-site engineers and the concrete compressive stress tests.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.44-52
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• 2014

Generally, the most difficult works at scheduling are to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is so high. When estimating a project duration, therefore, the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently. The PERT that is one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration can not consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to 'FS0' relationship. The purpose of this study is to propose the new method "PLET" for stochastically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM's relationships, and also provide more wide and various probabilsitic information about the project duration by it.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.6 s.22
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• pp.170-178
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• 2004

Public construction companies have strictly followed a rule that they should not work in the wet area such as structural frame for a certain period during the winter season. It is usually known that the non-working period during the winter causes increase of the project duration, and the project cost escalation. Also, it makes negative effects on national economy because it reduces workers income. Therefore, the site work for the structural frame should be performed even during the whiter season. But the site work for the structural frame during that period cannot proceeds in the same way as during other periods, and requires a different method for estimating project duration. Through an analysis of time scheduling mechanism, actual working days are obtained for 1 cycle of typical floors in the structural frame during these periods, and non-working days of 5 years average are calculated based on calendar day using data of 5 years weather forecasts for that season. This study proposes an optimized way of estimating project duration for 1 cycle of typical floors in the structural frame during these periods. This estimating method uses the combined actual working days and non-working days of 5 years' average, and the estimated results are confirmed by being compared with field data. This study is expected to be used in estimating the construction duration of the structural frame during the winter season.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.383-387
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• 2003

Construction project has many problem such as delay of the appointed date delivery, over budget, wether and site conditions. When several activities are influenced by the same factor, their duration may be delayed. This paper deals with the problem of construction duration estimating and schedule variation on the construction project. The theory of constraints technique for project management is referred to 'Critical Chain' technique. This paper shows optimal scheduling plan and time management technique, used probability construction duration estimating and scheduling buffer based on the critical chain project management.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.20-28
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• 2004

Estimation of software project cost, effort, and duration in the early stage of software development cycle is a difficult and key problem in software engineering. Most of development effort and duration estimation models presented by regression model of simple relation function point vs. effort and effort vs. duration instead of considering developer's productivity. But different project have need for different effort according to developer's productivity if the projects are same software size. Also, different duration takes according to developer's productivity if the projects require the same effort. Therefore, models that take into account of productivity have a limited application in actual development project. This paper presents models that can be estimate the duration according to productivity in order to compensate a shortcoming of the previous models. Propose model that could presume development period by various methods based on productivity and compared models' performance. As a result of performance comparison, an estimating model of development period from software size got simple and most good result. The model gives decision-making information of development duration to project management in the early stage of software life cycle.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.137-149
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• 2005

This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting Is achievable for the duration of an individual activity.

• Water for future
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.56-62
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• 1979

Many methods of estimating design floods from rainfall data involve a trial and error procedure to determine the duration of the design rainfall, which is very complicated and time-consuming. In this study, an effort was given to derive an analytical expression for estimating the appropriate duration for use with a particular unit hydrograph. According to the so-derived analytical expression the coordinateds of hvdrograph curve and rainfall curve for the Musim Representative Basin were computed and then plotted on a same scal graph paper on which the critical durations of design rainfall excess of various recurrence intervals were determined by the point of intersection of the tow curves.