• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimate of Future

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Research tendency of the middle & long period future estimating Oriental medicine (미래 한의학의 중장기예측 연구 동향)

  • Shin, Hyun-Kyoo;Sung, Hyun-Jea
    • Korean Journal of Oriental Medicine
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.485-495
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    • 1996
  • Oriental medicine is a traditional medical are that has maintained its medical system only in Korea, Japan and China, nowadays, it is required to systematize the Oriental medicine modernly as well as prove remedical value of it for public welfare and hygiene, medical studies about geriatric disease and ageing are valued highly in researchs of future medical service which were excuted by Korea, Japan and Germay. consequently, future - estimating project of the Oriental medicine which keeps and accent on research datas that have a curative effect highly must be constructed. in the cause of this, effieient and systematic subject selection should be preceded to accomplish an advisable planning of the Oriental medicine.

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Predicting required licensed spectrum for the future considering big data growth

  • Shayea, Ibraheem;Rahman, Tharek Abd.;Azmi, Marwan Hadri;Han, Chua Tien;Arsad, Arsany
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.224-234
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    • 2019
  • This paper proposes a new spectrum forecasting (SF) model to estimate the spectrum demands for future mobile broadband (MBB) services. The model requires five main input metrics, that is, the current available spectrum, site number growth, mobile data traffic growth, average network utilization, and spectrum efficiency growth. Using the proposed SF model, the future MBB spectrum demand for Malaysia in 2020 is forecasted based on the input market data of four major mobile telecommunication operators represented by A-D, which account for approximately 95% of the local mobile market share. Statistical data to generate the five input metrics were obtained from prominent agencies, such as the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, OpenSignal, Analysys Mason, GSMA, and Huawei. Our forecasting results indicate that by 2020, Malaysia would require approximately 307 MHz of additional spectrum to fulfill the enormous increase in mobile broadband data demands.

Comparison of Mortality Estimate and Prediction by the Period of Time Series Data Used (시계열 적용기간에 따른 사망력 추정 및 예측결과 비교 - LC모형과 LC 코호트효과 확장모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Kyunam;Baek, Jeeseon;Kim, Donguk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1019-1032
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    • 2013
  • The accurate prediction of future mortality is an important issue due to recent rapid increases in life expectancy. An accurate estimation and prediction of mortality is important to future welfare policies. The optimal selection of a mortality model is important to estimate and predict mortality; however, the period of time series data used is also an important issue. It is essential to understand that the time series data for mortality is short in Korea and the data before 1982 is incomplete. This paper divides the time series of Korean mortality into two sets to compare the parameter estimates of the LC model and LC model with a cohort effect by the period of data used. A modeling and prediction of the mortality index and cohort effect index as well as the evaluation of future life expectancy is conducted. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the future prediction of mortality.

Estimation of Uncertain Past and Future Locations of Moving objects (이동 객체의 불확실한 과거 및 미래의 위치 추정)

  • 안윤애;류근호
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2002
  • If continuous moving objects are managed by conventional database, it is not possible for them to store all position information changed over time in the database. Therefore, a time period of regular rate is determined and position information of moving objects are discretely stored in the system for every time period. However, if continuous moving objects are managed as discrete model, we will have problems which cannot properly answer to the query about uncertain past or future position information. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose the method and algorithm which use the history information stored in the same database, to estimate the past or future location of moving objects. The cubic spline interpolation is used to estimate the past location and the mean movement value of the history information is used to predict the future location of moving objects. Finally, from the location estimation experimentation of using virtual trajectory and location sample, we proved that the proposed cubic spline function has less error than the linear function.

The method of evaluating the validity in making the checklist of statistical method (통계기법 점검표 작성시 타당성 평가방법)

  • Lee, Sang-Bock;Kim, Mal-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.323-336
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    • 1998
  • This thesis is to propose the method of evaluating the validity in stages on the design of a checklist based on the estimate theory of the validity on the design of a checklist and the method of evaluating the validity accordy to the purpose for usiug checklist and establish the standards of estimating the validity in stages on the checklist owing to the estimate theory with the journal, Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles. We are emboding the statistical consulting server using the proposed estimate method of the validity and the followings we the questions to solve in future. First, there are many kinds of the statistical methods used in the fields of learing and applied technalogy. So we must establish the statistical standars required in each field and study and develope the special statistical checklists. Second, it is neded to systemize the estimate methods and standard on the validity by building the statistical consult DB, evaluate the researchers according to the degrees of statistical knowledge the validity of study design iud propose the delicate and generalized statistical methods appropriate to the ability of researchers.

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Evaluation Mechanism of DSM Potentials (수요관리 프로그램의 잠재량 평가방안)

  • Jin, B.M.;Rhee, C.H.;Kim, C.S.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.11b
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    • pp.421-423
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    • 2001
  • Restructuring of electricity industry is going on for the purpose of introducing competition and after separation of generation and retail business and introduction of competition, substantial change is expected in overall electric power system. In other words, DSM projects are divided with public projects and private projects. Particularly for public project, it is essential to evaluate the DSM volumes by program. This paper tries to derive the ways for achieving the necessary DSM goal in the electricity industry in Korea. First of all, by analyzing the load in Korea, we forecast the standard demand and estimate the technological potentials of each program in considering DSM technological indicators. Moreover, by using economic analysis by program, we estimate economic potentials and finally, we estimate the potentials by program in considering the DSM policy. We estimate the potentials by using random method because application methodology and procedures by program are not established until now, which leads to not obtaining transparency for implementation effect by program. Therefore, this paper estimates the future potentials of DSM projects by using the logical and systematic analytic method and establishing database for DSM basic indicator. The DSM goals estimated by this method will be reflected to mid/long term nation-wide resource planning, which will mitigate anticipated power supply shortage and be applied to derive desirable energy demand/supply structure.

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Using Balanced Scorecard to Explore Learning Performance of Enterprise Organization

  • Chiu, Chung-Ching;Tsai, Chih-Hung;Chung, Yi-Chan
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.40-75
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    • 2007
  • In the early industrial age which with high intensity of machine and labor, using financial measurement index was good enough to tie in company's mechanization and philosophy of management and been in efficiency. But being comply with "New Economic age," a new economic environment is full of knowledge and information, the enterprise competition had changed from tangible assets, plants to intangible innovation ability of knowledge. As recognizing the new tendency by enterprise, they value gradually the growth and influence from learning. Practice of organization learning not only needs firm structure and be in coordination with both hardware and software, but also needs an affect measurement model to offer enterprise to estimate learning performance. It's a good instrument of financial performance measure mold in the past years, But it's for measuring the past, couldn't formulate enterprise trend to future, hard to estimate investment for future, such as development of products, organization learning, knowledge management etc, as which intangible assets and knowledge ability just the key factors of being win around competition environment in the future. In 1992, Kaplan and Norton brought up Balance Scorecard (BSC) on Harvard Business Review, as an instrument helping enterprise to measure performance, which is being considered to be a most influence management instrument. It added non-financial index such as customer, internal process and learning growth besides traditional financial index, as offering enterprise an index to measure and manage intangible assets and intellectual property. As being aware of organization learning is hard to be ignored in the new economic age, this research is based on learning and growth of BSC, and citing one national material company try to let the most difficult measurement performance of organization learning, to be estimate through BSC, analyze of factor and individual case, to discuss the company how to make the related strategy and vision of organization learning to develop learning and growth of the structure of BSC, subject the matter of out put factors to be discussed, and measure the outcomes as a result of research. The research affect offers (1) the base implement procedure of carrying out BSC; (2) the reference of formulating measurement index while enterprise using BSC to estimate performance of organization learning; (3) the possibility bottleneck maybe forcing while carrying out BSC, to be an improvement or preventive for enterprise.

Current Status of Tree Height Estimation from Airborne LiDAR Data

  • Hwang, Se-Ran;Lee, Im-Pyeong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.389-401
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    • 2011
  • Most nations around the world have expressed significant concern in the climate change due to a rapid increase in green-house gases and thus reach an international agreement to control total amount of these gases for the mitigation of global warming. As the most important absorber of carbon dioxide, one of major green-house gases, forest resources should be more tightly managed with a means to measure their total amount, forest biomass, efficiently and accurately. Forest biomass has close relations with forest areas and tree height. Airborne LiDAR data helps extract biophysical properties on forest resources such as tree height more efficiently by providing detailed spatial information about the wide-range ground surface. Many researchers have thus developed various methods to estimate tree height using LiDAR data, which retain different performance and characteristics depending on forest environment and data characteristics. In this study, we attempted to investigate such various techniques to estimate tree height, elaborate their advantages and limitations, and suggest future research directions. We first examined the characteristics of LiDAR data applied to forest studies and then analyzed methods on filtering, a precedent procedure for tree height estimation. Regarding the methods for tree height estimation, we classified them into two categories: individual tree-based and regression-based method and described the representative methods under each category with a summary of their analysis results. Finally, we reviewed techniques regarding data fusion between LiDAR and other remote sensing data for future work.

Effect Analysis of Healthy City Policies on Residents' Walking (시스템사고로 본 건강도시화 정책이 지역주민의 걷기실천율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Eun-Jung;Kim, Young-Pyo
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.25-45
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of healthy city policies on residents' walking. In order to estimate promotion of walking rates by healthy cities policies, it developed System dynamics(SD)-based model which showed causal relationships among urban design, public health policies, and walking levels. SD technique is useful for future forecast and policy impact assessment. The spatial units of the SD-based system for policy impact assessment included 66 cities, counties, and communities in Seoul Metropolitan Area. The system simulation was planned to be run for 21 years from 2009 to 2030. For this study, 3 alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. As a result of simulations, residents' participation rates for walking were increased from 1.00% to 9.98%. This study contributes to better understanding the benefits of healthy cities that are associated with individual walking. It further provided useful insights into planners' role in promoting health. The paper concluded with a discussion on future research opportunities and implications for public policies in urban and transportation and public health.

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A Study on the Development of Fouling and Plugging Margin Evaluation Methods for Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers (다관원통형 열교환기의 파울링 및 관막음 여유 평가법)

  • Hwang, Kyeong-Mo;Jin, Tae-Eun
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2003
  • As operating time of heat exchangers progresses, fouling generated by water-borne deposits increases and thermal performance decreases. The fouling is known to interfere with normal flow characteristics and reduce thermal efficiencies of heat exchangers. The heat exchangers of nuclear power plants have been analyzed in terms of the heat flux and heat transfer coefficient at test conditions based on the ASME OM-S/G-Part 2 as a means of heat exchanger management. It is hard to estimate the heat performance trend and to establish the future management plan. This paper describes the fouling evaluation method which can evaluate the thermal performance for heat exchangers and estimate the future fouling variations and the plugging margin evaluation method which can reflect the current fouling level developed in this study. To develop the fouling and plugging margin evaluation methods for heat exchangers, fouling factor was introduced based on the ASME O&M codes and TEMA standards. For the purpose of verifying the two evaluation methods, the fouling and plugging margin evaluations were performed for a component cooling heat exchanger in a nuclear power plant.

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