• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.189-218
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• 2004

In this paper, we estimate consumers' preferences for the key attributes of the future mobile telecommunication terminal using conjoint analysis. For statistical model, we estimate the mixed legit model which can reflect the heterogeneity of consumers' preferences, using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. The results show that there are large variations in consumers' preferences for the attributes of the future mobile telecommunication terminal, which justifies our using of mixed logit model. Also, the results show that most consumers prefer the medium size display and keyboard as input equipment. Additionally, far from general prediction, the results show that many consumers are indifferent to whether the future mobile telecommunication terminal is able to provide high quality internet service or not, and to operate many application programs and programs originally designed for PC. From those results, we can obtain some important implications for the R＆D strategies. Additionally, the results on the heterogeneity of consumers' preferences reveal that it is possible that the complete device convergence may not happen.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.72-75
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• 2005

Uncertainty of objects in Moving Object Database is a coherent property. It has been discussed in a lot of researches on modelling and query processing. The previous studies assume that uncertain future time is determined through utilizing recent speed and direction of vehicles. This method is simple and useful for estimating the time of the near future location. However, it is not appropriate when we estimate the time of the far future location. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a concept of planned route. It is used to estimate uncertain future time, which has to be located at a given point. If the route of an object is planned beforehand its locations are uncertainly distributed near that route. By a simple projection operation, the probability that a location lies in the planned route is increased. Moreover, we identify the future time of an object based on the speed for passing the route, which is offered via a website.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.721-729
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• 2009

Recently, there has been growing necessity to estimate the future travel demand of high speed train because the circumstance of high speed train service is rapidly changing with the launching of 2011 second stage of Gyeongbu high speed railway(Dongdaegu-Busan) and the completion of 2014 first stage of Honam high speed railway(Yongsan-Gwangju), etc. This study was designed to estimate future travel demand by analyzing the transport performance and train service characteristics of Gyeongbu and Honam line. This study presents the maximum load section and the changed future travel demand, which will be applied to establish a train operation plan.

• IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.201-207
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• 2011

This paper introduces a novel concept of 'Emotional Communication' for future smart phone. While traditional information based communication technologies focus on how to precisely transmit the content of message, emotional communication is intended to support and augment social relationship among people and to comfort the user to be happy. In this paper, we propose future communication services and core technologies which can estimate emotional desire of users and respond to the desire to be happy with connectedness and consolation from peoples. Firstly, we introduce emotion recognition techniques to estimate emotional desire of users. At second, the emotional responding services are categorized to four parts and the details are shown. Lastly we propose the process to implement emotional communication system and the main techniques to fulfill the system requirements for future smart-phone services.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.19-41
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• 2006

The Objective of this study was to design the model which predict the future cash flow of hospitals and on the basis of designed model to support sound hospital management by the prediction of future cash flow. The five cash flow measurement variables discussed in financial accrual part were used as variables and these variables were defined as NI, NIDPR, CFO, CFAI, CC. To measure the cash flow B/S related variables, P/L related variables and financial ratio related variables were utilized in this study. To measure cash flow models were designed and to estimate the prediction ability of five cash flow models, the martingale model and the market model were utilized. To estimate relative prediction outcome of cash flow prediction model and simple market model, MAE and MER were used to compare and analyze relative prediction ability of the cash flow model and the market model and to prove superiority of the model of the cash flow prediction model, 32 Regional Public Hospital's cross-section data and 4 year time series data were combined and pooled cross-sectional time series regression model was used for GLS-analysis. To analyze this data, Firstly, each cash flow prediction model, martingale model and market model were made and MAE and MER were estimated. Secondly difference-test was conducted to find the difference between MAE and MER of cash flow prediction model. Thirdly after ranking by size the prediction of cash flow model, martingale model and market model, Friedman-test was evaluated to find prediction ability. The results of this study were as follows: when t-test was conducted to find prediction ability among each model, the error of prediction of cash flow model was smaller than that of martingale and market model, and the difference of prediction error cash flow was significant, so cash flow model was analyzed as excellent compare with other models. This research results can be considered conductive in that present the suitable prediction model of future cash flow to the hospital. This research can provide valuable information in policy-making of hospital's policy decision. This research provide effects as follows; (1) the research is useful to estimate the benefit of hospital, solvency and capital supply ability for substitution of fixed equipment. (2) the research is useful to estimate hospital's liqudity, solvency and financial ability. (3) the research is useful to estimate evaluation ability in hospital management. Furthermore, the research should be continued by sampling all hospitals and constructed advanced cash flow model in dimension, established type and continued by studying unified model which is related each cash flow model.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.135-149
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• 1994

Demand forecasting is to estimate the demand of customers for products and services. Since the future is uncertain in nature, it is too difficult for us to predict exactly what will happen. Therefore, when the forecasting is performed upon the uncertain future, it is realistic to estimate the value of demand as an interval or a fuzzy number instead of a crisp number. In this paper, we propose a demand forecasting method using the standard back-propagation algorithm and then we extend the method to the case of interval inputs. Next, we demonstrate that the proposed method using the interval neural networks can represent the fuzziness of forecasting values as intervals. Last, we propose a demand forecasting method using the transformed input variables that can be obtained by taking account of the degree of influence between an input and an output.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.37-40
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• 2002

It is to show the problems of the existing techniques to estimate agricultural water demand and to suggest the new methods considering the water demand for non-irrigated area and decrease of water loss in canal. It is to suggest the methods to improve the techniques for estimating agricultural water demand and to analyze the water demand and supply according to the facilities capacity. Until now, the concept of per the unit used to estimate agriculture water demand is useful to estimate demand, but is insufficient to cope with the variations of conditions in future. And the paddy area of government is not realistic against a trend of decrease. Water demand decrease is caused by constructions of irrigation facilities as constructing of irrigation canal, but application loss ratio is fixed. Increase of the water demand owing to the increase of the yield per the unit area is also the actual condition which is not considered. The guide-line must contain these contents for a demand estimate.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2007.10a
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• pp.515-517
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• 2007

In this study we attempted to estimate damage scope such as bridges destruction, farmland deformation, forest damage, etc occurred by typhoon using two digital aerial images for future high-resolution Kompsat-3 applications. The process procedures are followings: First, image registration between time-different aerial images was implemented. In this process one image was geometrically corrected by image-to-image registration. Second, image classification was done according to 4 classes. Finally through the comparison of classified two images the area of damage by flood and storm was approximately calculated. These results showed that it is possible to estimate the damage scale relatively rapidly using high-resolution images.

• KCID journal
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.236-244
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• 2007

Agricultural water demand in North Korea must be considered for the near-future investment in agricultural consolidation projects and to prepare for the future unification. Thus, the objective of this study is to estimate the agricultural water demand of paddy fieldss in North Korea. GIS data including land cover classification map, Thiessen network and administration maps of North Korea, and meteorological data were synthesized. In order to estimate paddy water demand for a 10-year return period, the FAO Blaney-Criddle method and the fixed effective rainfall ratio method were used. The results showed that 4.77 billion $\beta$(c)/year paddy water demand is required for the 512,400 ha of paddy fieldss. Paddy water demand in the three major regions - Hwanghaedo, Pyeongando, Hamgyeongnamdo - was estimated chargong 81.7 percent of total paddy water demand in North Korea.

• Water for future
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.89-97
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• 1992

This study is to verify the applicability of statistical models for predicting flood frequency at the stage gaging stations selected by considering whether the flow is natural condition in the Han River basin. From the result of verification, this statistical flood frequency models showed that is fairly reasonable to apply in practice, and also were compared with sampling variance to calibrate the statistical dfficiency of the estimate of the T year flood Q(T) by two different flood frequency models. As a result, it was showed that for return periods greater than about T=10 years the annual exceedence series estimate of Q(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimate. It was showed that for the range of return periods the partial duration series estimate of Q(T) has smaller sampling varianed than the annual maximum series estimate only if the POT model contains at least 2N(N:record length)items or more in order to estimate Q(T) more efficiently than the ANNMAX model.