• Title/Summary/Keyword: Error Modeling

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A Study of the Abalone Outlook Model Using by Partial Equilibrium Model Approach Based on DEEM System (부분균형모형을 이용한 전복 수급전망모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Suk-Ho;Jang, Hee-Soo;Heo, Su-Jin;Lee, Nam-Su
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.51-69
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries Outlook" monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

Runoff assessment using radar rainfall and precipitation runoff modeling system model (레이더 강수량과 PRMS 모형을 이용한 유출량 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Sung-Ho;Kim, Chang-Sung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.493-505
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    • 2020
  • The rainfall-runoff model has been generally adopted to obtain a consistent runoff sequence with the use of the long-term ground-gauged based precipitation data. The Thiessen polygon is a commonly applied approach for estimating the mean areal rainfall from the ground-gauged precipitation by assigning weight based on the relative areas delineated by a polygon. However, spatial bias is likely to increase due to a sparse network of the rain gauge. This study aims to generate continuous runoff sequences with the mean areal rainfall obtained from radar rainfall estimates through a PRMS rainfall-runoff model. Here, the systematic error of radar rainfall is corrected by applying the G/R Ratio. The results showed that the estimated runoff using the corrected radar rainfall estimates are largely similar and comparable to that of the Thiessen. More importantly, one can expect that the mean areal rainfall obtained from the radar rainfall estimates are more desirable than that of the ground in terms of representing rainfall patterns in space, which in turn leads to significant improvement in the estimation of runoff.

Large Scale SWAT Watershed Modeling Considering Multi-purpose Dams and Multi-function Weirs Operation - For Namhan River Basin - (다목적 댐 및 다기능 보 운영을 고려한 대유역 SWAT 모형 구축기법 연구 - 남한강 유역을 대상으로 -)

  • Ahn, So Ra;Lee, Ji Wan;Jang, Sun Sook;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2016
  • This study is to evaluate the applicability of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for multi-purpose dams and multi-function weirs operation in Namhan river basin ($12,577km^2$) of South Korea. The SWAT was calibrated (2005 ~ 2009) and validated (2010 ~ 2014) considering of 4 multi-purpose dams and 3 multi-function weirs using daily observed dam inflow and storage, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and groundwater level data. Firstly, the dam inflow was calibrated by the five steps; (step 1) the physical rate between total runoff and evapotranspiration was controlled by ESCO, (step 2) the peak runoff was calibrated by CN, OV_N, and CH_N, (step 3) the baseflow was calibrated by GW_DELAY, (step 4) the recession curve of baseflow was calibrated by ALPHA_BF, (step 5) the flux between lateral flow and return flow was controlled by SOL_AWC and SOL_K, and (step 6) the flux between reevaporation and return flow was controlled by REVAPMN and GW_REVAP. Secondly, for the storage water level calibration, the SWAT emergency and principle spillway were applied for water level from design flood level to restricted water level for dam and from maximum to management water level for weir respectively. Finally, the parameters for evapotranspiration (ESCO), soil water (SOL_AWC) and groundwater level fluctuation (GWQMN, ALPHA_BF) were repeatedly adjusted by trial error method. For the dam inflow, the determination coefficient $R^2$ was above 0.80. The average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was from 0.59 to 0.88 and the RMSE was from 3.3 mm/day to 8.6 mm/day respectively. For the water balance performance, the PBIAS was between 9.4 and 21.4 %. For the dam storage volume, the $R^2$ was above 0.63 and the PBIAS was between 6.3 and 13.5 % respectively. The average $R^2$ for evapotranspiration and soil moisture at CM (Cheongmicheon) site was 0.72 and 0.78, and the average $R^2$ for groundwater level was 0.59 and 0.60 at 2 YP (Yangpyeong) sites.

Comparative Study on Growth Patterns of 25 Commercial Strains of Korean Native Chicken

  • Manjula, Prabuddha;Park, Hee-Bok;Yoo, Jaehong;Wickramasuriya, Samiru;Seo, Dong-Won;Choi, Nu-Ri;Kim, Chong Dae;Kang, Bo-Seok;Oh, Ki-Seok;Sohn, Sea-Hwan;Heo, Jung-Min;Lee, Jun-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2016
  • Prediction of growth patterns of commercial chicken strains is important. It can provide visual assessment of growth as function of time and prediction body weight (BW) at a specific age. The aim of current study is to compare the three nonlinear functions (i.e., Logistic, Gompertz, and von Betalanffy) for modeling the growth of twenty five commercial Korean native chicken (KNC) strains reared under a battery cage system until 32 weeks of age and to evaluate the three models with regard to their ability to describe the relationship between BW and age. A clear difference in growth pattern among 25 strains were observed and classified in to the groups according to their growth patterns. The highest and lowest estimated values for asymptotic body weight (C) for 3H and 5W were given by von Bertalanffy and Logistic model 4629.7 g for 2197.8 g respectively. The highest estimated parameter for maturating rate (b) was given by Logistic model 0.249 corresponds to the 2F and lowest in von Bertalanffy model 0.094 for 4Y. According to the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and mean square of error (MSE), Gompertz and von Bertalanffy models were suitable to describe the growth of Korean native chicken. Moreover, von Bertalannfy model was well described the most of KNC growth with biologically meaningful parameter compared to Gompertz model.

A Study on the reduction of surface roughness by analyzing the thickness of photocurable sculpture (광조형물의 패턴두께에 따른 표면 거칠기 저감을 위한 공정연구)

  • Kim, Young-Su;Yang, Hyoung-Chan;Kim, Go-Beom;Dang, Hyun-Woo;Doh, Yang-Hoi;Choi, Kyung-Hyun
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we developed a 3D printing system using a photo-curing resin in order to reduce the surface roughness of a sculpture produced with the 3D printer. Using the pattern of the resulting variable thickness, that gave rise to a stepped shape, and the area error of the photo-curable sculpture, a study was carried out for the process to reduce the surface roughness. At a given value of stage velocity (40~70 mm/s) and output air pneumatic pressure (20~60 kPa), the minimum pattern thickness of the pattern was achieved $65{\mu}m$ and the maximum pattern thickness of up to $175{\mu}m$. To increases the pattern resolution to about $40{\mu}m$, the process conditions should be optimized. 3D surface Nano profiler was used to find the surface roughness of the sculpture that was measured to be minimum $4.7{\mu}m$ and maximum $8.7{\mu}m$. The maximum surface roughness was reduced about $1.2{\mu}m$ for the maximum thickness of the pattern. In addition, a FDM was used to fabricate the same sculpture and its surface roughness measurements were also taken for comparison with the one fabricated using photo-curing. Same process conditions were used for both fabrication setups in order to perform the comparison efficiently. The surface roughness of the photo-curable sculpture is $5.5{\mu}m$ lower than the sculpture fabricated using FDM. A certain circuit patterns was formed on the laminated surface of the photo-curable sculpture while there was no stable pattern on the laminated surface of the FDM based sculpture the other hand.

Prediction on the amount of river water use using support vector machine with time series decomposition (TDSVM을 이용한 하천수 취수량 예측)

  • Choi, Seo Hye;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.1075-1086
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the incidence of climate warming and abnormal climate increases, the forecasting of hydrological factors such as precipitation and river flow is getting more complicated, and the risk of water shortage is also increasing. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model for predicting the amount of water intake in mid-term. To this end, the correlation between water intake and meteorological factors, including temperature and precipitation, was used to select input factors. In addition, the amount of water intake increased with time series and seasonal characteristics were clearly shown. Thus, the preprocessing process was performed using the time series decomposition method, and the support vector machine (SVM) was applied to the residual to develop the river intake prediction model. This model has an error of 4.1% on average, which is higher accuracy than the SVM model without preprocessing. In particular, this model has an advantage in mid-term prediction for one to two months. It is expected that the water intake forecasting model developed in this study is useful to be applied for water allocation computation in the permission of river water use, water quality management, and drought measurement for sustainable and efficient management of water resources.

Spatial Interpolation of Hourly Air Temperature over Sloping Surfaces Based on a Solar Irradiance Correction (일사 수광량 보정에 의한 산악지대 매시기온의 공간내삽)

  • 정유란;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2002
  • Spatial interpolation has become a common procedure in converting temperature forecasts and observations at irregular points for use in regional scale ecosystem modeling and the model based decision support systems for resource management. Neglection of terrain effects in most spatial interpolations for short term temperatures may cause erroneous results in mountainous regions, where the observation network hardly covers full features of the complicated terrain. A spatial interpolation model for daytime hourly temperature was formulated based on error analysis of unsampled site with respect to the site topography. The model has a solar irradiance correction scheme in addition to the common backbone of the lapse rate - corrected inverse distance weighting. The solar irradiance scheme calculates the direct, diffuse and reflected components of shortwave radiation over any surfaces based on the sun-slope geometry and compares the sum with that over a reference surface. The deviation from the reference radiation is used to calculate the temperature correction term by an empirical conversion formula between the solar energy and the air temperature on any sloped surfaces at an hourly time scale, which can be prepared seasonally for each land cover type. When this model was applied to a 14 km by 22 km mountainous region at a 10 m horizontal resolution, the estimated hourly temperature surfaces showed a better agreement with the observed distribution than those by a conventional method.

3D Reconstruction using a Moving Planar Mirror (움직이는 평면거울을 이용한 3차원 물체 복원)

  • 장경호;이동훈;정순기
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.1543-1550
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    • 2004
  • Modeling from images is a cost-effective means of obtaining 3D geometric models. These models can be effectively constructed from classical Structure from Motion algorithm. However, it's too difficult to reconstruct whole scenes using SFM method since general sites contain a very complex shapes and brilliant colours. To overcome this difficulty, the current paper proposes a new reconstruction method based on a moving Planar mirror. We devise the mirror posture instead of scene itself as a cue for reconstructing the geometry That implies that the geometric cues are inserted into the scene by compulsion. With this method, we can obtain the geometric details regardless of the scene complexity. For this purpose, we first capture image sequences through the moving mirror containing the interested scene, and then calibrate the camera through the mirror's posture. Since the calibration results are still inaccurate due to the detection error, the camera pose is revised using frame-correspondence of the comer points that are easily obtained using the initial camera posture. Finally, 3D information is computed from a set of calibrated image sequences. We validate our approach with a set of experiments on some complex objects.

Predictive Modeling for the Growth of Listeria monocytogenes as a Function of Temperature, NaCl, and pH

  • PARK SHIN YOUNG;CHOI JIN-WON;YEON JIHYE;LEE MIN JEONG;CHUNG DUCK HWA;KIM MIN-GON;LEE KYU-HO;KIM KEUN-SUNG;LEE DONG-HA;BAHK GYUNG-JIN;BAE DONG-HO;KIM KWANG-YUP;KIM CHEOL-HO
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.1323-1329
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    • 2005
  • A mathematical model was developed for predicting the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in tryptic soy broth (TSB) as a function of combined effects of temperature, pH, and NaCl. The TSB containing four different concentrations of NaCl (2, 4, 5, and $10\%$) was initially adjusted to six different pH levels (pH 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10) and incubated at 4, 10, 25, or 37$^{circ}C$. In all experimental variables, the primary growth curves were well fitted ($r^{2}$=0.982 to 0.998) to a Gompertz equation to obtain the lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). Surface response models were identified as appropriate secondary models for LT and SGR on the basis of coefficient determination ($r^{2}$=0.907 for LT, 0.964 for SGR), mean square error (MSE=3.389 for LT, 0.018 for SGR), bias factor ($B_{1}$B,=0.706 for LT, 0.836 for SGR), and accuracy factor ($A_{f}$=1.567 for LT, 1.213 for SGR). Therefore, the developed secondary model proved reliable predictions of the combined effect of temperature, NaCl, and pH on both LT and SGR for L. monocytogenes in TSB.

Study on Characteristics of Dose Distribution in Tissue of High Energy Electron Beam for Radiation Therapy (방사선 치료용 고에너지 전자선의 조직 내 선량분포 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Na, Soo-Kyung
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is directly measure and evaluate about absorbed dose change according to nominal energy and electron cone or medical accelerator on isodose curve, percentage depth dose, contaminated X-ray, inhomogeneous tissue, oblique surface and irradiation on intracavitary that electron beam with high energy distributed in tissue, and it settled standard data of hish energy electron beam treatment, and offer to exactly data for new dote distribution modeling study based on experimental resuls and theory. Electron beam with hish energy of $6{\sim}20$ MeV is used that generated from medical linear accelerator (Clinac 2100C/D, Varian) for the experiment, andwater phantom and Farmer chamber md Markus chamber und for absorbe d dose measurement of electron beam, and standard absorbed dose is calculated by standard measurements of International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) TRS 277. Dose analyzer (700i dose distribution analyzer, Wellhofer), film (X-OmatV, Kodak), external cone, intracavitary cone, cork, animal compact bone and air were used for don distribution measurement. As the results of absorbed dose ratio increased while irradiation field was increased, it appeared maximum at some irradiation field size and decreased though irradiation field size was more increased, and it decreased greatly while energy of electron beam was increased, and scattered dose on wall of electron cone was the cause. In percentage depth dose curve of electron beam, Effective depth dose(R80) for nominal energy of 6, 9, 12, 16 and 20 MeV are 1.85, 2.93, 4.07, 5.37 and 6.53 cm respectively, which seems to be one third of electron beam energy (MeV). Contaminated X-ray was generated from interaction between electron beam with high energy and material, and it was about $0.3{\sim}2.3\%$ of maximum dose and increased with increasing energy. Change of depth dose ratio of electron beam was compared with theory by Monte Carlo simulation, and calculation and measured value by Pencil beam model reciprocally, and percentage depth dose and measured value by Pencil beam were agreed almost, however, there were a little lack on build up area and error increased in pendulum and multi treatment since there was no contaminated X-ray part. Percentage depth dose calculated by Monte Carlo simulation appeared to be less from all part except maximum dose area from the curve. The change of percentage depth dose by inhomogeneous tissue, maximum range after penetration the 1 cm bone was moved 1 cm toward to surface then polystyrene phantom. In case of 1 cm and 2 cm cork, it was moved 0.5 cm and 1 cm toward to depth, respectively. In case of air, practical range was extended toward depth without energy loss. Irradiation on intracavitary is using straight and beveled type cones of 2.5, 3.0, 3.5 $cm{\phi}$, and maximum and effective $80\%$ dose depth increases while electron beam energy and size of electron cone increase. In case of contaminated X-ray, as the energy increase, straight type cones were more highly appeared then beveled type. The output factor of intracavitary small field electron cone was $15{\sim}86\%$ of standard external electron cone($15{\times}15cm^2$) and straight type was slightly higher then beveled type.

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