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Minimizing Estimation Errors of a Wind Velocity Forecasting Technique That Functions as an Early Warning System in the Agricultural Sector (농업기상재해 조기경보시스템의 풍속 예측 기법 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Park, Joo-Hyeon;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.63-77
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    • 2022
  • Our aim was to reduce estimation errors of a wind velocity model used as an early warning system for weather risk management in the agricultural sector. The Rural Development Administration (RDA) agricultural weather observation network's wind velocity data and its corresponding estimated data from January to December 2020 were used to calculate linear regression equations (Y = aX + b). In each linear regression, the wind estimation error at 87 points and eight time slots per day (00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09.00, 12.00, 15.00, 18.00, and 21:00) is the dependent variable (Y), while the estimated wind velocity is the independent variable (X). When the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5, the regression equation was used as the wind velocity correction equation. In contrast, when the correlation coefficient was less than 0.5, the mean error (ME) at the corresponding points and time slots was substituted as the correction value instead of the regression equation. To enable the use of wind velocity model at a national scale, a distribution map with a grid resolution of 250 m was created. This objective was achieved b y performing a spatial interpolation with an inverse distance weighted (IDW) technique using the regression coefficients (a and b), the correlation coefficient (R), and the ME values for the 87 points and eight time slots. Interpolated grid values for 13 weather observation points in rural areas were then extracted. The wind velocity estimation errors for 13 points from January to December 2019 were corrected and compared with the system's values. After correction, the mean ME of the wind velocities reduced from 0.68 m/s to 0.45 m/s, while the mean RMSE reduced from 1.30 m/s to 1.05 m/s. In conclusion, the system's wind velocities were overestimated across all time slots; however, after the correction model was applied, the overestimation reduced in all time slots, except for 15:00. The ME and RMSE improved b y 33% and 19.2%, respectively. In our system, the warning for wind damage risk to crops is driven by the daily maximum wind speed derived from the daily mean wind speed obtained eight times per day. This approach is expected to reduce false alarms within the context of strong wind risk, by reducing the overestimation of wind velocities.

The Development of Prediction Equation for Estimating VO2max from the 20 m PSRT in Korean Middle-School Girls. Exercise Science (20 m 점증 왕복달리기 검사를 이용한 여중생의 VO2max 추정식 개발)

  • Park, Dong-Ho;Song, Jung-Ran;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Chang-Sun
    • Exercise Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to develop and validate regression models to estimate maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) from the 20 m Progressive Shuttle Run Test (20 m PSRT) in Korean middle-school girls aged 13-15 years. The 20 m PSRT and VO2max were assessed in a sample of 194 participants. The sample was randomly split into validation (n=127) and test-retest reliability (n=99, 32 out of 127 participants also performed validity test) groups. 127 participants performed a graded exercise test (GXT, stationary gas analyser) and the 20 m PSRT (portable gas analyser) once to develop a VO2max prediction model and to analyze the validity of the modified 20 m PSRT protocol (starting at 7.5 km/h and increasing by 0.5 km/h every 1 min). 99 participants performed the 20 m PSRT twice for test-retest reliability purpose. Mean measured VO2max (39.2±5.1 ml/kg/min) from the potable gas analyzer was significantly increased from that measured during the GXT from stationary gas analyzer (37.7±5.7 ml/kg/min, p=.001) using the modified 20 m PSRT protocol. But it was a narrow range (1.5 ml/kg/min). The measured VO2max from the potable and stationary gas analyzers correlated at r=.88(p<.001). Test-retest of the 20 m PSRT yielded comparable results (Laps r=.88 & final speed r=.85). New regression equations were developed from present data to predict VO2max for middle-school girls: y=.231×Laps-.311×weight(in kg)+46.201 (r=.74, SEE=4.29 ml/kg/min). It is concluded that (a) the modified 20 m PSRT protocol is a valid and reliable test and (b) this equation developed in this study provides valid estimates of VO2max of Korean middle-school girl aged 13-15 years.

A short-term longitudinal study of mental health and academic burnout among middle school students (중학생의 정신건강과 학업소진의 단기종단연구)

  • Shin, Hyojung;Kim, Boyoung;Lee, Minyoung;Noh, Hyunkyung;Kim, Keunhwa;Lee, SangMin
    • Korean Journal of School Psychology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.133-152
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    • 2011
  • This is a short-term longitudinal study investigating the relationships between changes in mental health and academic burnout among Korean middle school students. Study sample consisted of 409 middle school students in Seoul provision, with 161 male, 216 female, and 32 unidentified. Both Symptom Check List(SCL-47) and Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey(MBI-SS) were used. In order to examine the pattern of changes in mental health and academic burnout among students, standardized residuals were calculated using regression equations which were then put into canonical correlation analysis. The results of this study are as follows. First, according to Function 1, among sub-factors of mental health, decreases in depression, compulsion, anxiety, and hostility were particularly associated with decreases in exhaustion and cynicism among academic burnout. Put in another way, students who showed increases in depression, compulsion, anxiety, and hostility experienced more academic exhaustion and cynicism. Second, according to Function 2, increases in phobic anxiety, compulsion with decreases in anxiety, depression were associated with decrease in academic exhaustion and increase in cynicism. Considering Russell's dimensional theory of emotion, Function 1 showed that mental health symptoms including both aroused and non-aroused affects were related with increases in exhaustion and cynicism while Function 2 showed that mental health symptoms including only aroused aspects were related with decrease in exhaustion and increase in cynicism. Thus, a conclusive intervention program seems to be required to deal with both aroused and non-aroused affects of students who are experiencing increased exhaustion and cynicism. On the other hand, an intervention program focused on aroused affects seems appropriate to students who are experiencing decreased exhaustion and increased cynicism. This study has its value in that it has enhanced understanding of students in school and counseling settings by revealing the relationships between mental health and academic burnout among adolescents and suggested differentiated intervention strategies based on patterns of students' academic burnout.

The Effect of Consumers' Value Motives on the Perception of Blog Reviews Credibility: the Moderation Effect of Tie Strength (소비자의 가치 추구 동인이 블로그 리뷰의 신뢰성 지각에 미치는 영향: 유대강도에 따른 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Min Jung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.159-189
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    • 2012
  • What attracts consumers to bloggers' reviews? Consumers would be attracted both by the Bloggers' expertise (i.e., knowledge and experience) and by his/her unbiased manner of delivering information. Expertise and trustworthiness are both virtues of information sources, particularly when there is uncertainty in decision-making. Noting this point, we postulate that consumers' motives determine the relative weights they place on expertise and trustworthiness. In addition, our hypotheses assume that tie strength moderates consumers' expectation on bloggers' expertise and trustworthiness: with expectation on expertise enhanced for power-blog user-group (weak-ties), and an expectation on trustworthiness elevated for personal-blog user-group (strong-ties). Finally, we theorize that the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review is moderated by tie strength; the predictive power of credibility is more prominent for the personal-blog user-groups than for the power-blog user groups. To support these assumptions, we conducted a field survey with blog users, collecting retrospective self-report data. The "gourmet shop" was chosen as a target product category, and obtained data analyzed by structural equations modeling. Findings from these data provide empirical support for our theoretical predictions. First, we found that the purposive motive aimed at satisfying instrumental information needs increases reliance on bloggers' expertise, but interpersonal connectivity value for alleviating loneliness elevates reliance on bloggers' trustworthiness. Second, expertise-based credibility is more prominent for power-blog user-groups than for personal-blog user-groups. While strong ties attract consumers with trustworthiness based on close emotional bonds, weak ties gain consumers' attention with new, non-redundant information (Levin & Cross, 2004). Thus, when the existing knowledge system, used in strong ties, does not work as smoothly for addressing an impending problem, the weak-tie source can be utilized as a handy reference. Thus, we can anticipate that power bloggers secure credibility by virtue of their expertise while personal bloggers trade off on their trustworthiness. Our analysis demonstrates that power bloggers appeal more strongly to consumers than do personal bloggers in the area of expertise-based credibility. Finally, the effect of review credibility on willingness to accept a review is higher for the personal-blog user-group than for the power-blog user-group. Actually, the inference that review credibility is a potent predictor of assessing willingness to accept a review is grounded on the analogy that attitude is an effective indicator of purchase intention. However, if memory about established attitudes is blocked, the predictive power of attitude on purchase intention is considerably diminished. Likewise, the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review can be affected by certain moderators. Inspired by this analogy, we introduced tie strength as a possible moderator and demonstrated that tie strength moderated the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review. Previously, Levin and Cross (2004) showed that credibility mediates strong-ties through receipt of knowledge, but this credibility mediation is not observed for weak-ties, where a direct path to it is activated. Thus, the predictive power of credibility on behavioral intention - that is, willingness to accept a review - is expected to be higher for strong-ties.

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A Study on the Effect of User Value on Smartwatch Digital HealthcareAcceptance Intention to Promote Digital Healthcare Venture Start Up (Digital Healthcare 벤처창업 촉진을 위한, 사용자 가치가 Smartwatch Digital Healthcare 수용의도에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Eekseong Jin;soyoung Lee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2023
  • Recently, as the non-face-to-face environment has developed due to COVID-19 and environmental pollution, the importance of online digital healthcare is increasing, and venture start-ups and activities such as health care, telemedicine, and digital treatments are also actively underway. This study conducted the impact on the acceptability of digital healthcare smartwatches with an integrated approach of the expanded integrated technology acceptance model (UTAUT2) and the behavioral inference model (BRT). The most advanced integrated technology acceptance model for innovative technology acceptance research was used to identify major factors such as utility expectations, social effects, convenience, price barriers, lack of alternatives, and behavioral intentions. For the study, about 410 responses from ordinary people in their teens to 60s across the country were collected, and based on this, the hypothesis was verified using structural equations after testing reliability and validity of the data. SPSS 23 and AMOS 23 were used for research analysis. Studies have shown that personal innovation has a significant impact on the reasons for acceptance (use value, social impact, convenience of use), attitude, and non-use (price barriers, lack of alternatives, and barriers to use). These results are the same as the results of previous studies that confirmed the influence of the main value of innovative ICT on user acceptance intention. In addition, the reason for acceptance had a significant effect on attitude, but the effect of the reason for non-acceptance was not significant. It can be analyzed that consumers are interested in new ICT products and new services, but purchase them more carefully and selectively. This study has evolved from the acceptance analysis of general-purpose consumer innovation technology to the acceptance analysis of consumer value in smartwatch digital healthcare, which is a new and important area in the future. Industrially, it can contribute to the product's purchase and marketing. It is hoped that this study will contribute to increasing research in the digital healthcare sector, which will play an important role in our lives in the future, and that it will develop into in-depth factors that are more suitable for consumer value through integrated approach models and integrated analysis of consumer acceptance and non-acceptance.

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A Study on the Effects of Entrepreneurial Marketing Orientation on the Management Performance: Mediated Effect of Organizational Marketing Capabilities (창업자의 앙트레프레니얼 마케팅 지향성이 경영성과에 미치는 영향: 조직내 마케팅역량의 매개효과)

  • Byun, Hong Joo;Byun, Chung Gyu;Ha, Hwan Ho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2022
  • Early start-up companies have an inherent limitation of lack of resources. Despite these limitations, in order to survive, the entrepreneur's personal ability to efficiently use limited resources is required. In the marketing field, various studies are needed to reduce the business failure rate through establishing growth strategies and innovation. Accordingly, it is necessary to apply the concept of entrepreneurial marketing, which has been researched and developed overseas for 30 years, to fit the domestic reality. According to the flow of this study, an empirical study should be preceded to clarify the influence relationship between entrepreneurial marketing orientation, marketing competency, and management performance, along with a theoretical theorem on entrepreneurial marketing that is suitable for early start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) and can respond innovatively to changes. The establishment of entrepreneurial marketing orientation and the processes from which this concept leads to business performance through the organization's marketing capabilities and its effects will be empirically verified. For an empirical survey, a survey was conducted on founders of 220 companies, and path analysis using structural equations was used for hypothesis verification. The findings are as follows. First, it was found that the entrepreneurial marketing orientation had a positive effect on both the organization's marketing capabilities and management performance. Second, it was found that the organization's marketing capabilities also had a positive effect on management performance. Third, as a result of empirical analysis of the mediating effect of the organization's marketing capabilities on the relationship between entrepreneurial marketing orientation and management performance, it was found that marketing capabilities showed a greater mediating effect on non-financial performance than financial performance. On the other hand, it was confirmed that marketing performance had a stronger mediating effect on financial performance than non-financial performance. By confirming and presenting the concept and constituent factors of entrepreneurial marketing orientation of domestic start-ups, which were academic gaps for the purpose of this paper, the academic research is differentiated in that they were verified as six components of entrepreneurial marketing. The practical implications of the research results will be that the entrepreneurial marketing-oriented mindset of small and medium-sized companies will optimize market analysis capabilities, network with various stakeholders, and increase the organization's ability to demonstrate marketing capabilities.

Examining Entrepreneurial Competences of Asian Female University Students: A Four Country Comparison (아시아여성대학생의 기업가역량 연구: 4개국 비교)

  • Kim, Myonghee;Ah, Jinwon;Kim, Misung;Kim, Miran
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2022
  • While the number of female entrepreneurs has been increasing, and female entrepreneurship has been increasingly perceived as a driving force of sustainable economic development, there is a lack of studies of female entrepreneurship, particularly in the non-Western regions. This study aims to explore current levels of entrepreneurial competences of female college students in four Asian countries (i.e., Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam), differences in the competences between countries, and factors affecting their entrepreneurial competences. Using online surveys, the present study collected data from 516 female Asian college students and examined their entrepreneurial competences in six dimensions-entrepreneurship, sensibility, business management, relationship management, strategic management, and multi-tasking. This study also investigated effects of four variables (i.e., entrepreneurship course taking experiences, on-campus entrepreneurship experiences, off-campus entrepreneurship experiences, and entrepreneurial intentions) on the six aspects of entrepreneurial competences. Data analysis reveals that female Asian college students as a whole group possess quite high levels of entrepreneurial competences while the Filipino students show the biggest competence in all the six dimensions measured. As regards affecting factors, this study finds that, in the total sample, regression equations are significant in all the six dimensions of entrepreneurial competences. On-campus experiences have significantly positive effects on those six dimensions while course taking experiences and entrepreneurial intentions positively affect three different dimensions each. However, out-of-campus experiences turn out to be negative though their effects are insignificant. Meanwhile, in individual samples, different factors affect different dimensions of entrepreneurial competences. Based on these findings, the present study suggests some actions for promoting female entrepreneurship and for conducting future studies.

Studies on the Consumptine Use of Irrigated Water in Paddy Fields During the Growing of Rice Plants(III) (벼생유기간중의 논에서의 분석소비에 관한 연구(II))

  • 민병섭
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1775-1782
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    • 1969
  • The results of the study on the consumptine use of irrigated water in paddy fields during the growing season of rice plants are summarized as follows. 1. Transpiration and evaporation from water surface. 1) Amount of transpiration of rice plant increases gradually after transplantation and suddenly increases in the head swelling period and reaches the peak between the end of the head swelling poriod and early period of heading and flowering. (the sixth period for early maturing variety, the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties), then it decreases gradually after that, for early, medium and late maturing varieties. 2) In the transpiration of rice plants there is hardly any difference among varieties up to the fifth period, but the early maturing variety is the most vigorous in the sixth period, and the late maturing variety is more vigorous than others continuously after the seventh period. 3) The amount of transpiration of the sixth period for early maturing variety of the seventh period for medium and late maturing variety in which transpiration is the most vigorous, is 15% or 16% of the total amount of transpiration through all periods. 4) Transpiration of rice plants must be determined by using transpiration intensity as the standard coefficient of computation of amount of transpiration, because it originates in the physiological action.(Table 7) 5) Transpiration ratio of rice plants is approximately 450 to 480 6) Equations which are able to compute amount of transpiration of each variety up th the heading-flowering peried, in which the amount of transpiration of rice plants is the maximum in this study are as follows: Early maturing variety ; Y=0.658+1.088X Medium maturing variety ; Y=0.780+1.050X Late maturing variety ; Y=0.646+1.091X Y=amount of transpiration ; X=number of period. 7) As we know from figure 1 and 2, correlation between the amount evaporation from water surface in paddy fields and amount of transpiration shows high negative. 8) It is possible to calculate the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field for varieties used in this study on the base of ratio of it to amount of evaporation by atmometer(Table 11) and Table 10. Also the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field is to be computed by the following equations until the period in which it is the minimum quantity the sixth period for early maturing variety and the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties. Early maturing variety ; Y=4.67-0.58X Medium maturing variety ; Y=4.70-0.59X Late maturing variety ; Y=4.71-0.59X Y=amount of evaporation from water surface in the paddy field X=number of period. 9) Changes in the amount of evapo-transpiration of each growing period have the same tendency as transpiration, and the maximum quantity of early maturing variety is in the sixth period and medium or late maturing varieties are in the seventh period. 10) The amount of evapo-transpiration can be calculated on the base of the evapo-transpiration intensity (Table 14) and Tablet 12, for varieties used in this study. Also, it is possible to compute it according to the following equations with in the period of maximum quantity. Early maturing variety ; Y=5.36+0.503X Medium maturing variety ; Y=5.41+0.456X Late maturing variety ; Y=5.80+0.494X Y=amount of evapo-transpiration. X=number of period. 11) Ratios of the total amount of evapo-transpiration to the total amount of evaporation by atmometer through all growing periods, are 1.23 for early maturing variety, 1.25 for medium maturing variety, 1.27 for late maturing variety, respectively. 12) Only air temperature shows high correlation in relation between amount of evapo-transpiration and climatic conditions from the viewpoint of Korean climatic conditions through all growing periods of rice plants. 2. Amount of percolation 1) The amount of percolation for computation of planning water requirment ought to depend on water holding dates. 3. Available rainfall 1) The available rainfall and its coefficient of each period during the growing season of paddy fields are shown in Table 8. 2) The ratio (available coefficient) of available rainfall to the amount of rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields seems to be from 65% to 75% as the standard in Korea. 3) Available rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields in the common year is estimated to be about 550 millimeters. 4. Effects to be influenced upon percolation by transpiration of rice plants. 1) The stronger absorbtive action is, the more the amount of percolation decreases, because absorbtive action of rice plant roots influence upon percolation(Table 21, Table 22) 2) In case of planting of rice plants, there are several entirely different changes in the amount of percolation in the forenoon, at night and in the afternoon during the growing season, that is, is the morning and at night, the amount of percolation increases gradually after transplantation to the peak in the end of July or the early part of August (wast or soil temperature is the highest), and it decreases gradually after that, neverthless, in the afternoon, it decreases gradually after transplantation to be at the minimum in the middle of August, and it increases gradually after that. 3) In spite of the increasing amount of transpiration, the amount of daytime percolation decreases gadually after transplantation and appears to suddenly decrease about head swelling dates or heading-flowering period, but it begins to increase suddenly at the end of August again. 4) Changs of amount of percolation during all growing periods show some variable phenomena, that is, amount of percolation decreases after the end of July, and it increases in end August again, also it decreases after that once more. This phenomena may be influenced complexly from water or soil temperature(night time and forenoon) as absorbtive action of rice plant roots. 5) Correlation between the amount of daytime percolation and the amount of transpiration shows high negative, amount of night percolation is influenced by water or soil temperature, but there is little no influence by transpiration. It is estimated that the amount of a daily percolation is more influenced by of other causes than transpiration. 6) Correlation between the amount of night percoe, lation and water or soil temp tureshows high positive, but there is not any correlation between the amount of forenoon percolation or afternoon percolation and water of soil temperature. 7) There is high positive correlation which is r=+0.8382 between the amount of daily percolation of planting pot of rice plant and amount and amount of daily percolation of non-planting pot. 8) The total amount of percolation through all growin. periods of rice plants may be influenced more from specific permeability of soil, water of soil temperature, and otheres than transpiration of rice plants.

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A Study on the Characteristics of Mortar Using Foaming Agents (기포제(起泡劑)를 사용(使用)한 모르터의 제특성(諸特性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Sung, Chan Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.82-94
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    • 1988
  • This study was performed to obtain the basic data which can be applied to use of foaming mortars. The results obtained were summarized as follows ; 1. The lowest water-cement ratios were shown at the mixing ratio of 1 : 1. But, it was gradually increased in poorer mixing ratio and decreased in more addition of foaming agent. The water-cement ratios were decreased up to 1.6-53.1% by mix-foaming type and 4.4-24.1% by pre-foamed type than cement mortar. 2. The highest bulk densities were shown at the mixing ratio of 1 : 1. But, it was gradually decreased in poorer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. The decreasing rates of bulk densities were increased in richer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. 3. The bulk densities were decreased up to 38.8-55.9% by mix-foaming type and 9.7-23.6% by pre-foamed type than cement mortar. 4. The lowest absorption rates were shown at the mixing ratio of 1 : 1. But, it was gradually increased in poorer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. The increasing rates of absorption rates were increased in richer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. 5. Absorption rates when immersed in 72hours were shown up to 3.41-5.85 times greater by mix-foaming type and 1.05-1.55 times greater by pre-foamed type than those of cement mortar. it was significantly higher at the early stage of immersed time than cement mortar. 6. The highest strengths were shown at the mixing ratio of 1 : 1. But, it was gradually decreased in poorer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. The decreasing rates of strengths were increased in poorer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. 7. The strengths were decreased up to 77.0-92.8% by mix-foaming type and 36.7-74.4% by pre-foamed type than cement mortar. 8. The lowest air contents were shown at the mixing ratio of 1 : 1. But, it was gradually increased in poorer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. The increasing rates of air contents were increased in richer mixing ratio and more addition of foaming agent. 9. Air contents were shown up to 26.0-63.8 times greater by mix-foaming type and 5.8-17.7 times greater by pre-foamed type than those of cement mortar. 10. The correlations between bulk density, absorption rate, compressive strength and air content were highly significant. The multiple regression equations of bulk density, absorption rate, compressive strength, tensile strength, bending strength and air content were computed depending on a function of mixing ratio and addition of foaming agent. They were generally highly significant.

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Relation between the Heat Budget and the Cold Water in the Yellow Sea in Winter (동계의 열수지 황해냉수와의 관계)

  • Han, Young-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1978
  • To study the fluctuation of cold water in the East China Sea in summer heat budget of the Yellow Sea in winter was analysed based on the oceanographic and meteorological data compiled from 1951 to 1974. The maintain value of insolation was observed in December($160{\sim}190ly/day$), while the maximum in February ($250{\sim}260ly/day$). The range of the annual variation was found to be less than 50 ly/day. The value of the radiation term ($Q_s-Q_r-Q_h$) was remarkably small (mean 20 ly/day) in winter. It was negative value in December and January, and a positive value in February. The minimum total heat exchange from the sea ($Q_({h+c}$) was found value (471 ly/day) in February 1962, and the maximum (882 ly/day) in January 1963. The annual total heat exchange was minimum (588 ly/day) in 1962, and maximum (716 ly/day) in 1968. If the average deviation of mean water temperature at 50m depth layer were assumed to be the horizontal index ($C_h$) of colder water, $C_h$ is $C_h=\frac{{\Sigma}\limit_i\;A_i\;T_i}{{\Sigma}\limit_i\;A_i}$ where $A_i$ denotes the area of isothermal region and $T_i$ the value of deviation from mean sea water temperature. The vertical index ($C_v$) of cold water can be expressed similarly. Consequently the total index (C) of cold water equals to the sum of the two components, i.e. $C=C_h$$C_v$. Taking the deviation of mean sea surface temperature(T'w) in the third ten-day of Novembers in the Yellow Sea as the value of the initial condition, the following expressions are deduced : $C-T'w=32.06 - 0.049$ $\;Q_T$ $C_h-T'w/2=12.20-0.019\;Q_T$ $C_v-T'w/2=18.07-0.027\;Q_T$ where $Q_T$ denotes the total heat exchange of the sea. The correlation coefficients of these regression equations were found to be greater than 0.9. Heat budget was 588 ly/day in winter, and minimum water temperature of cold water was $18^{\circ}C$ in summer of 1962. The isotherm of $23^{\circ}C$ extended narrowly to southward up to $29^{\circ}N$ in summer. However, heat budget was 716 ly/day, and minimum water temperature of cold water was $12^{\circ}C$ in summer of 1968. The isotherm of $23^{\circ}C$ extended widely to southward up to $28^{\circ}30'N$ in summer. As a result of the present study, it may be concluded that the fluctuation of cold water of the East China Sea in summer can be predicted by the calculation of heat budget of the Yellow Sea in winter.

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