• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemic Model

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Contact Tracking Development Trend Using Bibliometric Analysis

  • Li, Chaoqun;Chen, Zhigang;Yu, Tongrui;Song, Xinxia
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.359-373
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    • 2022
  • The new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) has become a global epidemic. The disease has spread to most countries and poses a challenge to the healthcare system. Contact tracing technology is an effective way for public health to deal with diseases. Many experts have studied traditional contact tracing and developed digital contact tracking. In order to better understand the field of contact tracking, it is necessary to analyze the development of contact tracking in the field of computer science by bibliometrics. The purpose of this research is to use literature statistics and topic analysis to characterize the research literature of contact tracking in the field of computer science, to gain an in-depth understanding of the literature development status of contact tracking and the trend of hot topics over the past decade. In order to achieve the aforementioned goals, we conducted a bibliometric study in this paper. The study uses data collected from the Scopus database. Which contains more than 10,000 articles, including more than 2,000 in the field of computer science. For popular trends, we use VOSviewer for visual analysis. The number of contact tracking documents published annually in the computer field is increasing. At present, there are 200 to 300 papers published in the field of computer science each year, and the number of uncited papers is relatively small. Through the visual analysis of the paper, we found that the hot topic of contact tracking has changed from the past "mathematical model," "biological model," and "algorithm" to the current "digital contact tracking," "privacy," and "mobile application" and other topics. Contact tracking is currently a hot research topic. By selecting the most cited papers, we can display high-quality literature in contact tracking and characterize the development trend of the entire field through topic analysis. This is useful for students and researchers new to field of contact tracking ai well as for presenting our results to other subjects. Especially when comprehensive research cannot be conducted due to time constraints or lack of precise research questions, our research analysis can provide value for it.

A Study on the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Korea's Commodity Trade (Covid-19 팬데믹이 한국의 상품무역에 미친 영향에 대한 연구)

  • Ahn, Tae-Kun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.187-198
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    • 2022
  • This study attempted to examine whether the spread of infectious diseases and quarantine measures such as border blockade and restrictions on movement due to the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is the cause of a decrease in product trade. To this end, a gravity model analysis was conducted using commodity trade statistics from Korea and major trading partners. As a result of the analysis, it was empirically confirmed that in 2020, the time of the spread of COVID-19, the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic was an obstacle to reducing Korea's trade. However, in the case of 2021, it was not possible to confirm whether the impact of the pandemic had a significant effect on commodity trade. As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 is different, the commodity trade situation in 2022 when the COVID-19 epidemic is stably managed is also likely to change. Since factors such as response to COVID-19 and the spread of vaccines vary from country to country, it is thought that such various factors should be fully considered in the process of establishing policies to end the COVID-19 era

A Movement Tracking Model for Non-Face-to-Face Excercise Contents (비대면 운동 콘텐츠를 위한 움직임 추적 모델)

  • Chung, Daniel;Cho, Mingu;Ko, Ilju
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2021
  • Sports activities conducted by multiple people are difficult to proceed in a situation where a widespread epidemic such as COVID-19 is spreading, and this causes a lack of physical activity in modern people. This problem can be overcome by using online exercise contents, but it is difficult to check detailed postures such as during face-to-face exercise. In this study, we present a model that detects posture and tracks movement using IT system for better non-face-to-face exercise content management. The proposed motion tracking model defines a body model with reference to motion analysis methods widely used in physical education and defines posture and movement accordingly. Using the proposed model, it is possible to recognize and analyze movements used in exercise, know the number of specific movements in the exercise program, and detect whether or not the exercise program is performed. In order to verify the validity of the proposed model, we implemented motion tracking and exercise program tracking programs using Azure Kinect DK, a markerless motion capture device. If the proposed motion tracking model is improved and the performance of the motion capture system is improved, more detailed motion analysis is possible and the number of types of motions can be increased.

Influence of Climate Factors and PM10 on Rotaviral Infection: A Seasonal Variation Study (Rotavirus 감염의 연도별 유행시기의 변동양상 및 기후요소와 PM10과의 관계)

  • Im, Hae-Ra;Jeon, In-Sang;Tchah, Hann;Im, Jeong-Soo;Ryoo, Eell;Sun, Yong-Han;Cho, Kang-Ho;Im, Ho-Joon;Lee, Gwang-Hoon;Lee, Hak-Soo;Kang, Yune-Jeung;Noh, Yi-Gn
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.120-128
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: Recently, while the authors were experiencing that the epidemic period of rotaviral infection happened more in the early spring, we tried to find out how the outbreaks of rotaviral infection are changing in detail depending on the weather condition since it has something to do with the climate factors and PM10. Methods: Fourteen hundreds seventy nine patients who were proved to be positive to rotavirus were chosen among children less than 5 years old from January 1995 to June 2003. Among various climate factors, monthly average temperature, humidity, rainfall and PM10 were selected. Results: Rotaviral infection was most active in 2002 as 309 (20.9%) patients. It has been the spring that is the most active period of rotaviral infection since 2000. The temperature (RR=0.9423, CI=0.933424~0.951163), rainfall (RR=1.0024, CI=1.001523~1.003228) and PM10 (RR=1.0123, CI=1.009385~1.015248) were significantly associated with the monthly distribution of rotaviral infection. Conclusion: Through this study we determined that the epidemic period of rotaviral infection is changed to spring, which is different from the usual seasonal periods such as late fall or winter as reported in previous articles. As increased PM10 which could give serious influence to the human body, and changing pattern of climate factors such as monthly average temperature and rainfall have something to do with the rotaviral infection, we suppose that further study concerning this result is required in the aspects of epidemiology, biology and atmospheric science.

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The Effect Analysis of COVID-19 vaccination on social distancing (코로나19 백신접종이 사회적 거리두기 효과에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Moon, Su Chan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present an appropriate management plan as a supplement to the scientific evidence of the currently operated distancing system for preventing COVID-19. The currently being used mathematical models are expressed as simultaneous ordinary differential equations, there is a problem in that it is difficult to use them for the management of entry and exit of small business owners. In order to supplement this point, in this paper, a method for quantitatively expressing the risk of infection by people who gather is presented in consideration of the allowable risk given to the gathering space, the basic infection reproduction index, and the risk reduction rate due to vaccination. A simple quantitative model was developed that manages the probability of infection in a probabilistic level according to a set of visitors by considering both the degree of infection risk according to the vaccination status (non-vaccinated, primary inoculation, and complete vaccination) and the epidemic status of the virus. In a given example using the model, the risk was reduced to 55% when 20% of non-vaccinated people were converted to full vaccination. It was suggested that management in terms of quarantine can obtain a greater effect than medical treatment. Based on this, a generalized model that can be applied to various situations in consideration of the type of vaccination and the degree of occurrence of confirmed cases was also presented. This model can be used to manage the total risk of people gathered at a certain space in a real time, by calculating individual risk according to the type of vaccine, the degree of inoculation, and the lapse of time after inoculation.

Modeling Age-specific Cancer Incidences Using Logistic Growth Equations: Implications for Data Collection

  • Shen, Xing-Rong;Feng, Rui;Chai, Jing;Cheng, Jing;Wang, De-Bin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.22
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    • pp.9731-9737
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    • 2014
  • Large scale secular registry or surveillance systems have been accumulating vast data that allow mathematical modeling of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Most contemporary models in this regard use time series and APC (age-period-cohort) methods and focus primarily on predicting or analyzing cancer epidemiology with little attention being paid to implications for designing cancer registry, surveillance or evaluation initiatives. This research models age-specific cancer incidence rates using logistic growth equations and explores their performance under different scenarios of data completeness in the hope of deriving clues for reshaping relevant data collection. The study used China Cancer Registry Report 2012 as the data source. It employed 3-parameter logistic growth equations and modeled the age-specific incidence rates of all and the top 10 cancers presented in the registry report. The study performed 3 types of modeling, namely full age-span by fitting, multiple 5-year-segment fitting and single-segment fitting. Measurement of model performance adopted adjusted goodness of fit that combines sum of squred residuals and relative errors. Both model simulation and performance evalation utilized self-developed algorithms programed using C# languade and MS Visual Studio 2008. For models built upon full age-span data, predicted age-specific cancer incidence rates fitted very well with observed values for most (except cervical and breast) cancers with estimated goodness of fit (Rs) being over 0.96. When a given cancer is concerned, the R valuae of the logistic growth model derived using observed data from urban residents was greater than or at least equal to that of the same model built on data from rural people. For models based on multiple-5-year-segment data, the Rs remained fairly high (over 0.89) until 3-fourths of the data segments were excluded. For models using a fixed length single-segment of observed data, the older the age covered by the corresponding data segment, the higher the resulting Rs. Logistic growth models describe age-specific incidence rates perfectly for most cancers and may be used to inform data collection for purposes of monitoring and analyzing cancer epidemic. Helped by appropriate logistic growth equations, the work vomume of contemporary data collection, e.g., cancer registry and surveilance systems, may be reduced substantially.

Association between Smoking and Mortality: Khon Kaen Cohort Study, Thailand

  • Kamsa-ard, Siriporn;Promthet, Supannee;Lewington, Sarah;Burrett, Julie Ann;Sherliker, Paul;Kamsa-ard, Supot;Wiangnon, Surapon;Parkin, Donald Maxwell
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2643-2647
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    • 2013
  • Background: Despite anti-smoking campaigns, smoking prevalence among Thai males aged 30 or older is high, at around 50%. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between smoking and mortality in a rural Thai community. Materials and Methods: Subjects enrolled into the Khon Kaen cohort study between 1990 and 2001 were followed up for their vital status until $16^{th}$ March 2012. The death resource was from the Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Interior, Thailand. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyse the association between smoking and death, controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking, and confidence intervals were calculated using the floating risk method. Results: The study recruited 5,962 male subjects, of whom 1,396 died during a median 13.5 years of follow-up. Current smokers were more likely to die than never smokers after controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking (HR, 95%CI: 1.41, 1.32-1.51), and the excess mortality was greatest for lung cancer (HR, 95%CI: 3.51, 2.65-4.66). However, there was no increased risk with increasing dose of tobacco, and no difference in risk between smokers of yamuan (hand-rolled cigarettes) and manufactured tobacco. Conclusion: Mortality from cancer, particularly lung cancer, and from all causes combined is dependent on smoking status among men in rural Thailand, but the relative risks are lower than have been reported from studies in high income countries, where the tobacco epidemic is more established.

Social security aimed disaster response policy based on Big Data application (사회안전을 위한 빅데이터 활용의 재난대응 정책)

  • Choung, Young-chul;Choy, Ik-su;Bae, Yong-guen
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.683-690
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    • 2016
  • In modern society, disasters frequently occur, and the effect is getting more massive. Also, unpredictable future increases anxiety about social security. Accordingly, in order to prevent national-scale emergency from happening, it is highly required governments' role as ICT power nation and transition to disaster management system using big data applied service. Thus, e-gov necessarily acquires disaster response system in order to predict and manage disasters. Disasters are linked with some attributes of modern society in diversity, complexity and unpredictability, so various approach and remedies of them will appease the nation's anxiety upon them. For this reason, this manuscript suggests epidemics preactive warning algorithm model as a mean of reduce national anxiety on disaster using big data for social security. Also, by recognizing the importance of e-gov and analyzing problems in weak disaster management system, it suggests political implication for disaster response.

Design of service delivery for a child obesity prevention and management program using technology convergence (융합기술 기반 어린이 비만 예방.관리 프로그램 전달체계 설계)

  • Hwang, Ji-Yun;Park, Mi-Young;Kim, Kirang;Lee, Sang Eun;Shim, Jae Eun
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.374-384
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Health professionals and policy makers confront the failure of provider-administered, conventional behavioral interventions in the fight against obesity epidemic. The aim of this study was to develop a tailored, cost-effective delivery system for a child obesity prevention and management program through technology convergence using Web-enabled smart cellular phones. Methods: Assessment of service needs and development of a delivery system for the program were based on a comprehensive literature review and expert reviews, and results from in-depth interviews and a need-assessment survey. Results: The user- and site-centered service delivery system using Web-enabled cellular telephones as the hardware platform for obesity prevention and management has been developed. A tailored informational service and intervention will be provided interactively between stakeholders through the platform. The potential legal issues associated with the service design have also been considered. Conclusion: The user-centered convergence design and platform based on principles of Transtheoretical Model and Stages of Change using the Health Promoting School framework could enable effective intervention and promote acceptance in the long-run.

Detection and Molecular Identification of Human Enteric Viruses in Urban Rivers in Korea

  • Lee, Cheong-Hoon;Kim, Sang-Jong
    • Proceedings of the Microbiological Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.171-171
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    • 2008
  • We monitored the occurrence of human enteric viruses in urban rivers by cell culture-PCR and RT-nested PCR. Water samples were collected monthly or semimonthly between May 2002 and March 2003 in four urban tributaries. Enteric viruses were detected by RT-nested PCR and cell culture-PCR based on a combination of Buffalo Green monkey kidney (BGMK) and A549 cell lines, followed by phylogenetic analysis of amplicons. By RT-nested PCR analysis, 45 (77.6%), 32 (55.2%), 32 (55.2%), 26 (44.8%), 12 (20.7%), 2 (3.4%), 4 (6.9%), and 4 (6.9%) of 58 samples showed positive results with adenoviruses, enteroviruses, noroviruses (NV) genogroup I (GI) and II (GII), reoviruses, hepatitis A viruses, rotaviruses and sapoviruses, respectively. Adenoviruses were most often detected and only eight (13.8%) samples were negative for adenoviruses and positive for other enteric viruses in the studied sites. Thirty-one (77.5%) of the 40 samples were positive for infectious adenoviruses and/or enteroviruses based on cell culture-PCR, and the frequency of positive samples grown on A549 and BGMK (65.0%) was higher than that grown on BGMK alone (47.5%). The occurrence of each enteric virus, except reoviruses and hepatitis A viruses was not statistically correlated with the water temperature and levels of fecal coliforms according to Binary logistic regression model. By sequence analysis, most strains of adenoviruses and enteroviruses detected in this study are similar to the causative agent of viral diseases in Korea and most NV GI- and GII-grouped strains were closely related to the reference strains from China and Japan, and GII/4-related strains had similar sequences to strains recognized as a worldwide epidemic outbreak. Our results suggested that monitoring human enteric viruses is necessary to improve microbial quality and cell culture-PCR using the combination of A549 and BGMK cells and the adenovirus detection by PCR could be useful for monitoring viral contamination in the aquatic environment.

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