• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemic Disease

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Modeling Circular Data with Uniformly Dispersed Noise

  • Yu, Hye-Kyung;Jun, Kyoung-Ho;Na, Jong-Hwa
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.651-659
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    • 2012
  • In this paper we developed a statistical model for circular data with noises. In this case, model fitting by single circular model has a lack-of-fit problem. To overcome this problem, we consider some mixture models that include circular uniform distribution and apply an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Both von Mises and Wrapped skew normal distributions are considered in this paper. Simulation studies are executed to assess the suggested EM algorithms. Finally, we applied the suggested method to fit 2008 EHFRS(Epidemic Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome) data provided by the KCDC(Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

Bayes Inference for the Spatial Bilinear Time Series Model with Application to Epidemic Data

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Duk-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.641-650
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    • 2012
  • Spatial time series data can be viewed as a set of time series simultaneously collected at a number of spatial locations. This paper studies Bayesian inferences in a spatial time bilinear model with a Gibbs sampling algorithm to overcome problems in the numerical analysis techniques of a spatial time series model. For illustration, the data set of mumps cases reported from the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention monthly over the years 2001~2009 are selected for analysis.

Identification of Hanseniaspora(Kloeckera) sp. Related with White Dusty Symptom of the Grape (포도 흰송이 증상과 관련된 Hanseniaspora(Kloeckera) sp.의 분리 및 동정)

  • Lee, Yeryeong;Kim, Geun-Gon;Chung, Young-Ryun
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.198-200
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    • 2005
  • An epidemic of the white dusty covering of grape clusters and canes by dust-like particles occurred in many vineyards near Gimcheon, Gyeongbuk area since 2000. Although the covering was severe, it seldom resulted in appreciable damage to vine health except drastical reduction of grape quality. It appears that the abnormal growth of a resident yeast Hanseniaspora (Kloeckera) sp. is related to the white dusty covering on the grape surface.

Occurrence of Gray Mold Rot of Perilla Caused by Botrytis cinerea (Botrytis cinerea에 의한 들깨 잿빛곰팡이병의 발생)

  • 문병주;노성환;손영준;강형석;이재필;김병섭;정대수
    • Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.467-472
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    • 1998
  • Gray mold rot of perilla was epidemic at Kangdong, Pusan and Miryang, Kyungnam in 1997 and 1998. The incidence of this disease ranged form 21.3 to 68.1% at Kangdong area. Leaf necrosis initially appeared on the edge of the infected leaves, and it was developed to the center of the leaves forming typical V-shaped brown necrotic lesions. Under high moisture condition, abundant mycelia of the pathogen was formed on the surface of the lesions. Infected stems became slender and were completely blighted up to the top of the plant. Two isolates, LVF12 and SD7, were isolated from diseased lesions showing typical symptoms, and the pathogenicity was tested using mycelial disks and conidial suspension inoculation. The developed symptoms were same as the naturally produced ones. These two pathogenic fungi were identified as Botrytis cinerea based on the morphological characteristics using a microscope and a scanning electron microscope, and cultural characteristics. This is the first report of gray mold or perilla in Korea.

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Frequency of Humidifier and Humidifier Disinfectant Usage in Gyeonggi Provine

  • Jeon, Byoung-Hak;Park, Young-Joon
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.27
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    • pp.2.1-2.4
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: This study is a cross-sectional study to investigate the frequency of humidifier and humidifier disinfectant usage in the general population. Methods: A questionnaire was applied to 94 subjects (46 male, 48 female) from the general population of Gyeonggi Province. The questionnaire consisted of 3 scales (general characteristics, 5 items about humidifier usage, 5 items about humidifier disinfectant usage). Results: Thirty-five (37.2%) of the 94 subjects use a humidifier and humidifier disinfectant usage was found to be 18.1%. The frequency of humidifier usage is 4.8 times per a week and the humidifier disinfectant usage is 2.4 times per a week. Humidifier usage rate was highest in January. and then tended to rise gradually from October. Conclusions: Although this study population was not representative, we can say that approximately 50 percent of the humidifier users use a humidifier disinfectant and the trend of using a humidifier has shown seasonality.

The Impact of Social disaster by COVID-19 on Consumer Price Index: Focused on Culture, Sports and Tourism (COVID-19가 유발한 사회재난이 소비자물가지수에 미치는 영향: 문화체육관광분야를 중점으로)

  • Lee, Da-Hye;Chang, In-Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.130-138
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    • 2021
  • The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on human life. The World Bank group (WBG) has stated that 2020 is the worst year since World War II for economic growth. An epidemic of an infectious disease such as COVID-19 is classified as a "social disaster" by law. The social disaster caused by COVID-19 puts certain industries, occupations and vulnerable groups at risk of exclusion and isolation. This paper intends to examine the fluctuations in the consumer price index in the cultural, sports and tourism sector before and after the onset of COVID-19. In addition, it predicts the consumer price index by sector until December 2021 and reveals its implications.

EPIDEMIC SEIQRV MATHEMATICAL MODEL AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF CORONAVIRUS

  • S.A.R. BAVITHRA;S. PADMASEKARAN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.1393-1407
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we propose a dynamic SEIQRV mathematical model and examine it to comprehend the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic transmission in the Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu. Positiveness and boundedness, which are the fundamental principles of this model, have been examined and found to be reliable. The reproduction number was calculated in order to predict whether the disease would spread further. Existing arrangements of infection-free, steady states are asymptotically stable both locally and globally when R0 < 1. The consistent state arrangements that are present in diseases are also locally steady when R0 < 1 and globally steady when R0 > 1. Finally, the numerical data confirms our theoretical study.

Agrometeorological Analysis on the Freeze Damage Occurrence of Yuzu Trees in Goheung, Jeonnam Province in 2018 (2018년 전라남도 고흥 유자나무 동해 발생에 대한 기상학적 구명)

  • Kim, Gyoung Hee;Koh, Young Jin;Kim, Kwang-Hyung
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2019
  • In 2018, severe diebacks have occurred on yuzu trees cultivated in Goheung, Jeonnam Province. On-farm surveys at 18 randomly selected orchards revealed the dieback incidence ranged from 7.5% to 100% with an average of 43.6%, and 56.6% of the affected yuzu trees were eventually killed. In order to find the reason for this sudden epidemic, we investigated the weather conditions that are exclusively distinct from previous years, hypothesizing that certain weather extremes might have caused the dieback epidemic on yuzu trees. Since different temperatures can cause freeze damage to plants depending on their dormancy stages, we investigated both periods when yuzu becomes hardy under deep dormancy (January-February) and when yuzu loses its cold hardiness (March-April). First, we found that daily minimum air temperatures below $-10^{\circ}C$ were recorded for 7 days in Goheung for January and February in 2018, while no occasions in 2017. In particular, there were two extreme temperature drops ($-12.6^{\circ}C$ and $-11.5^{\circ}C$) beyond the yuzu cold hardiness limit in 2018. In addition, another occasion of two sudden temperature drops to nearly $0^{\circ}C$ were occurred right after abnormally-warm-temperature-rises to $13^{\circ}C$ of daily minimum air temperatures in mid-March and early April. In conclusion, we estimated that the possible damages by several extreme freeze events during the winter of 2018 could be a major cause of severe diebacks and subsequently killed the severely affected yuzu trees.

A Study on Information System for Safe Transportation of Emergency Patients in the Era of Pandemic Infectious Disease (팬데믹 감염병 시대에 안전이송을 위한 정보시스템 연구)

  • Seungyong Kim;Incheol Hwang;Dongsik Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.839-846
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: To secure the safety of firefighters who are dispatched to emergency activities for patients with suspected infectious diseases during an epidemic, and to identify the current status of suspected infectious disease patients by region based on the information collected at the site, and manage firefighting infectious diseases that can be controlled and supported I want to develop a system. Method: Develop a smartphone app that can classify suspected infectious disease patients to check whether an infectious disease is suspected, and develop a disposable NFC tag for patient identification to prevent infection from suspected infectious disease patients. Develop a management system that collects and analyzes data related to emergency patients with suspected infectious disease input from the field and provides them to relevant business personnel to evaluate whether the transport of emergency patients with suspected infectious disease is improved. Result: As a result of the experiment, it was possible to determine whether an infectious disease was suspected through the algorithm implemented in the smartphone app, and the retransfer rate was significantly reduced by transferring to an appropriate hospital. Conclusion: Through this study, the possibility of improving emergency medical services by applying ICT technology to emergency medical services was confirmed. It is expected that the safety of paramedics will be actively secured.

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreaks: Diagnosis for Effective Epidemic Disease Management and Control (에볼라 출혈열 발병 : 효과적인 전염병 관리 및 통제를 위한 진단)

  • Kang, Boram;Kim, Hyojin;Macoy, Donah Mary;Kim, Min Gab
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2017
  • The first Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreak occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan in 1976 and then emerged in West Africa in 2014 with a total of 27,741 cases and 11,284 deaths. The fever is caused by the Ebola virus, which belongs to the Filoviridae family and contains a ssRNA genome. The known subtypes of the virus are Bundibugyo ebolavirus, Reston ebolavirus, Sudan ebolavirus, $Ta\ddot{i}$ Forest ebolavirus, and Zaire ebolavirus. The Ebola outbreak was historically originated majorly from the East and Central African tropical belt. The current outbreaks in West Africa caused numerous deaths and spread fear in global society. In the absence of effective treatment strategies and any vaccine, accurate diagnosis is the most important contributing factor in the management and control of the epidemic disease. WHO (World Health Organization) has announced emergency guidance for the selection and use of Ebola in in vitro diagnostic assays. Numerous companies and research institutions have studied the various diagnosis methods and identified four WHO procurement approved as diagnosis kits: RealStar Ebolavirus Screen RT-PCR kit 1.0 (Altona), Liferiver-Ebola Virus (EBOV) Real time RT-PCR kit, Xpert Ebola Assay, and ReEBOV Antigen Rapid Test Kit. The efficiency of novel diagnostic kits such as Rapid Diagnosis Test (RDT) is currently being evaluated.