• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.335-343
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• 2021

Water quality prediction is essential for the proper management of water supply systems. Increased suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has various effects on water supply systems such as increased treatment cost and consequently, there have been various efforts to develop a model for predicting SSC. However, SSC is affected by both the natural and anthropogenic environment, making it challenging to predict SSC. Recently, advanced machine learning models have increasingly been used for water quality prediction. This study developed an ensemble machine learning model to predict SSC using the XGBoost (XGB) algorithm. The observed discharge (Q) and SSC in two fields monitoring stations were used to develop the model. The input variables were clustered in two groups with low and high ranges of Q using the k-means clustering algorithm. Then each group of data was separately used to optimize XGB (Model 1). The model performance was compared with that of the XGB model using the entire data (Model 2). The models were evaluated by mean squared error-ob servation standard deviation ratio (RSR) and root mean squared error. The RSR were 0.51 and 0.57 in the two monitoring stations for Model 2, respectively, while the model performance improved to RSR 0.46 and 0.55, respectively, for Model 1.

• 자원환경지질
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• 제57권3호
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• pp.329-342
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• 2024

The exponential increase in nitrate pollution of river water poses an immediate threat to public health and the environment. This contamination is primarily due to various human activities, which include the overuse of nitrogenous fertilizers in agriculture and the discharge of nitrate-rich industrial effluents into rivers. As a result, the accurate prediction and identification of contaminated areas has become a crucial and challenging task for researchers. To solve these problems, this work leads to the prediction of nitrate contamination using machine learning approaches. This paper presents a novel approach known as Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) based on the Stacked Ensemble approach for predicting nitrate pollution in the Cauvery Delta region of Tamilnadu, India. The proposed method is evaluated using a Cauvery River dataset from the Tamilnadu Pollution Control Board. The proposed method shows excellent performance, achieving an accuracy of 93.31%, a precision of 93%, a sensitivity of 97.53%, a specificity of 94.28%, an F1-score of 95.23%, and an ROC score of 95%. These impressive results underline the demonstration of the proposed method in accurately predicting nitrate pollution in river water and ultimately help to make informed decisions to tackle these critical environmental problems.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해양정보통신학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.872-875
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• 2009

In a bankruptcy prediction model, the accuracy is one of crucial performance measures due to its significant economic impacts. Ensemble is one of widely used methods for improving the performance of classification and prediction models. Two popular ensemble methods, Bagging and Boosting, have been applied with great success to various machine learning problems using mostly decision trees as base classifiers. In this paper, we analyze the performance of boosted neural networks for improving the performance of traditional neural networks on bankruptcy prediction tasks. Experimental results on Korean firms indicated that the boosted neural networks showed the improved performance over traditional neural networks.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.121-139
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• 2014

기업의 부도 예측은 재무 및 회계 분야에서 매우 중요한 연구 주제이다. 기업의 부도로 인해 발생하는 비용이 매우 크기 때문에 부도 예측의 정확성은 금융기관으로서는 매우 중요한 일이다. 최근에는 여러 개의 모형을 결합하는 앙상블 모형을 부도 예측에 적용해 보려는 연구가 큰 관심을 끌고 있다. 앙상블 모형은 개별 모형보다 더 좋은 성과를 내기 위해 여러 개의 분류기를 결합하는 것이다. 이와 같은 앙상블 분류기는 분류기의 일반화 성능을 개선하는 데 매우 유용한 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 논문은 부도 예측 모형의 성과 개선에 관한 연구이다. 이를 위해 사례 선택(Instance Selection)을 활용한 배깅(Bagging) 모형을 제안하였다. 사례 선택은 원 데이터에서 가장 대표성 있고 관련성 높은 데이터를 선택하고 예측 모형에 악영향을 줄 수 있는 불필요한 데이터를 제거하는 것으로 이를 통해 예측 성과 개선도 기대할 수 있다. 배깅은 학습데이터에 변화를 줌으로써 기저 분류기들을 다양화시키는 앙상블 기법으로 단순하면서도 성과가 매우 좋은 것으로 알려져 있다. 사례 선택과 배깅은 각각 모형의 성과를 개선시킬 수 있는 잠재력이 있지만 이들 두 기법의 결합에 관한 연구는 아직까지 없는 것이 현실이다. 본 연구에서는 부도 예측 모형의 성과를 개선하기 위해 사례 선택과 배깅을 연결하는 새로운 모형을 제안하였다. 최적의 사례 선택을 위해 유전자 알고리즘이 사용되었으며, 이를 통해 최적의 사례 선택 조합을 찾고 이 결과를 배깅 앙상블 모형에 전달하여 새로운 형태의 배깅 앙상블 모형을 구성하게 된다. 본 연구에서 제안한 새로운 앙상블 모형의 성과를 검증하기 위해 ROC 커브, AUC, 예측정확도 등과 같은 성과지표를 사용해 다양한 모형과 비교 분석해 보았다. 실제 기업데이터를 사용해 실험한 결과 본 논문에서 제안한 새로운 형태의 모형이 가장 좋은 성과를 보임을 알 수 있었다.

• 지적과 국토정보
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.43-55
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• 2016

본 연구는 사례 기반 학습(instance-based learning)의 논리를 활용하여 지가를 추정하였다. 다양한 사례 기반 학습 기법 중 k-최근린법을 이용하였으며, k-최근린법 적용시 유사성을 측정하는 거리척도는 유클리디안 거리를 비롯해 문헌에 비교적 자주 등장하는 10개의 거리척도를 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 k-최근린법에 의한 10 종류의 예측값 중 가장 우수한 성능을 보이는 1개의 예측값을 최종 가격으로 선택하는 대신, 이들 예측값들을 병합하는 앙상블(ensemble) 기법의 논리를 적용하여 최종 예측값을 결정하였다. 앙상블 기법 중 일종의 잔차 적합 모형인 경사 부스팅 앨고리듬을 적용하여 최종 가격을 정하였다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 사례 기반 학습과 앙상블 기법의 이점을 실증적으로 제시하기 위해 전라남도 해남군 소재 농지를 사례로 하여 가격을 추정하였으며, k-최근린법에 의한 10 종류의 예측값보다 앙상블 기법에 의한 가격이 보다 정확한 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제30권12호
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• pp.1053-1065
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• 2021

In this study, the prediction technology of Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was improved by optimizing the weather predictors used as input data for machine learning. Results comparison was conducted using bias and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which are predictive accuracy verification indicators, based on the heavy rain case on August 21, 2021. By comparing the rainfall simulated using the improved HQPF and the observed accumulated rainfall, it was revealed that all HQPFs (conventional HQPF and improved HQPF 1 and HQPF 2) showed a decrease in rainfall as the lead time increased for the entire grid region. Hence, the difference from the observed rainfall increased. In the accumulated rainfall evaluation due to the reduction of input factors, compared to the existing HQPF, improved HQPF 1 and 2 predicted a larger accumulated rainfall. Furthermore, HQPF 2 used the lowest number of input factors and simulated more accumulated rainfall than that projected by conventional HQPF and HQPF 1. By improving the performance of conventional machine learning despite using lesser variables, the preprocessing period and model execution time can be reduced, thereby contributing to model optimization. As an additional advanced method of HQPF 1 and 2 mentioned above, a simulated analysis of the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) ensemble member and low pressure, one of the observed meteorological factors, was analyzed. Based on the results of this study, if we select for the positively performing ensemble members based on the heavy rain characteristics of Korea or apply additional weights differently for each ensemble member, the prediction accuracy is expected to increase.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.93-115
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• 2019

The availability of high-resolution laser scanning data and advanced machine learning algorithms has enabled an accurate potential rockfall source identification. However, the presence of other mass movements, such as landslides within the same region of interest, poses additional challenges to this task. Thus, this research presents a method based on an integration of Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and ensemble artificial neural network (bagging ANN [BANN]) for automatic detection of potential rockfall sources at Kinta Valley area, Malaysia. The GMM was utilised to determine slope angle thresholds of various geomorphological units. Different algorithms(ANN, support vector machine [SVM] and k nearest neighbour [kNN]) were individually tested with various ensemble models (bagging, voting and boosting). Grid search method was adopted to optimise the hyperparameters of the investigated base models. The proposed model achieves excellent results with success and prediction accuracies at 95% and 94%, respectively. In addition, this technique has achieved excellent accuracies (ROC = 95%) over other methods used. Moreover, the proposed model has achieved the optimal prediction accuracies (92%) on the basis of testing data, thereby indicating that the model can be generalised and replicated in different regions, and the proposed method can be applied to various landslide studies.

• 대기
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.405-420
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• 2020

In this study, we investigate the predictability of intraseasonal monthly temperature and precipitation variations using hindcast datasets from eight global circulation models participating in the operational multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center for the 1983~2010 period. These intraseasonal monthly variations are defined by categorical deterministic analysis. The monthly temperature and precipitation are categorized into above normal (AN), near normal (NN), and below normal (BN) based on the σ-value ± 0.43 after standardization. The nine patterns of intraseasonal monthly variation are defined by considering the changing pattern of the monthly categories for the three consecutive months. A deterministic and a probabilistic analysis are used to define intraseasonal monthly variation for the multi-model consisting of numerous ensemble members. The results show that a pattern (pattern 7), which has the same monthly categories in three consecutive months, is the most frequently occurring pattern in observation regardless of the seasons and variables. Meanwhile, the patterns (e.g., patterns 8 and 9) that have consistently increasing or decreasing trends in three consecutive months, such as BN-NN-AN or AN-NN-BN, occur rarely in observation. The MME and eight individual models generally capture pattern 7 well but rarely capture patterns 8 and 9.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제22권11호
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• pp.111-116
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• 2017

This paper proposes a data mining approach to predicting stock price direction. Stock market fluctuates due to many factors. Therefore, predicting stock price direction has become an important issue in the field of stock market analysis. However, in literature, there are few studies applying data mining approaches to predicting the stock price direction. To contribute to literature, this paper proposes comparing single classifiers and ensemble classifiers. Single classifiers include logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. Ensemble classifiers we consider are adaboost, random forest, bagging, stacking, and vote. For the sake of experiments, we garnered dataset from Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) ranging from 2008 to 2015. Data mining experiments using WEKA revealed that random forest, one of ensemble classifiers, shows best results in terms of metrics such as AUC (area under the ROC curve) and accuracy.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권11호
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• pp.4557-4572
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• 2020

The Alaska competition provides an opportunity to study the practical problems of real-world steganalysis. Participants are required to solve steganalysis involving various embedding schemes, inconsistency JPEG Quality Factor and various processing pipelines. In this paper, we propose a method to ensemble multiple deep learning steganalyzers. We select SRNet and RESDET as our base models. Then we design a three-layers model ensemble network to fuse these base models and output the final prediction. By separating the three colors channels for base model training and feature replacement strategy instead of simply merging features, the performance of the model ensemble is greatly improved. The proposed method won second place in the Alaska 1 competition in the end.