• Title/Summary/Keyword: Engineering School

Search Result 60,415, Processing Time 0.091 seconds

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.83-102
    • /
    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

A Study on the Compositional Characteristics of Water Systems and Landscapes in Traditional Chinese Seowons (중국 전통서원의 수체계와 수경관의 구성적 특성)

  • MA, Shuxiao;RHO, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
    • /
    • v.55 no.3
    • /
    • pp.74-100
    • /
    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics of Chinese seowons and to obtain data based on the characteristics of waterscapes unique to Korean seowons. The conclusion of this study from the results of investigation and analysis of the location, water system, and design characteristics of 10 representative traditional seowons in China including Yuelu Seowon(嶽麓書院) conducted based on literature research and field observation is as follows. The water system of Chinese seowons is dualized into an inner and an outer water system, and in general, two and a maximum of three water bodies are superimposed on the outside. The locations of seowons are classified into five types: Four double-sided round water type sites, three converted face water type sites, one three-sided round water type site, a four-sided round water type, and a waterproofing type(依山傍水型). Therefore, compared to the typical Korean seowon facing water in the front and a mountain in the back(背山面水型), the Chinese seowons showed a highly hydrophilic property. The water shapes of the external water system were meandering(46.0%), mooring(36.0%), and broad and irregular(9.0%). In addition, water conception(水態) were streams(31.8%), rivers(27.3%), springs(13.6%), falls(9.1%), lakes(4.5%) and ponds(4.5%), in that order. As for waterscapes of the water system inside the seowon, there were seven in Akrok Seowon and four in Mansong Seowon, indicating a comparatively higher number of waterscapes. Since the 27 detailed waterscapes in 10 seowons that were the subject of the study were classified into six types including ponds and half-moon ponds, they appeared to be more diverse than the Korean seowon. It is noteworthy that in the interior waterscape of the traditional Chinese seowon, the ritualistic order, where at least one half-moon pond or square pond(方池) was arranged, is well displayed. In particular, the half-moon pond(伴池), which is difficult to find in Korean seowon, was found to be a representative waterscape element, accounting for 42.8%. If the square pond of Nanxi Seowon based on Zhu Xi's poem 「Gwanseoyugam(觀書有感)」 is also treated as a square-shaped half-moon pond, the proportion of half-moon ponds in the waterscape will be as high as 50%. The pond shapes consisted of 28% square, 24% each for free curve and round shape, 20% for semi-moon shape, and 3.8% for mountain stream type. This seems to differ greatly from the square-shaped Korean seowon. On the other hand, there were a total of 10 types of structures related to the waterscape inside the Chinese seowon: 11(26.8%) pavilion and bridge sites, five gate room sites(牌坊: 16.5%), four gate and tower sites(樓, 1.4%), two Jae sites(齋, 6.2%), and one site each(3.1%) of Heon(軒), Sa(祠), Dae(臺), and Gak(閣). In particular, the pavilions inside seowon were classified into three types: landscape pavilion(景觀亭 27.2%), tombstone pavilion(碑亭, 18.2%), and banquet pavilion(宴集亭, 54.5%). In general, it was confirmed that the half-moon pond with a pedestal bridge, and the pavilion were the major components with a high degree of connection that dominate the waterscape inside the Chinese seowon.

A Study on the Characteristics and Management Plan of Old Big Trees in the Sacred Natural Sites of Handan City, China (중국 한단시 자연성지 내 노거수의 특성과 관리방안)

  • Xi, Su-Ting;Shin, Hyun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.35-45
    • /
    • 2023
  • First, The spatial distribution characteristics of old big trees were analyzed using ArcGIS figures by combining basic information such as species and ages of old big trees in Handan City, which were compiled by the local bureau of landscaping. The types of species, distribution by ages of trees, ownership status, growth status, and diversity status were comprehensively analyzed. Statistically, Styphnolobium, Acacia, Gleditsia, and Albizia of Fabaceae accounted for the majority, of which Sophora japonica accounted for the highest proportion. Sophora japonica is widely and intensively distributed to each prefecture and district in Handan city. According to the age and distribution, the old big trees over 1000 years old were mainly Sophora japonica, Zelkova serrata, Juniperus chinensis, Morus australis Koidz., Dalbergia hupeana Hance, Ceratonia siliqua L., and Pistacia chinensis, and Platycladus orientalis. Second, as found in each type of old big tree status, various types of old big tree status were investigated, the protection management system, protection management process, and protection management benefits were studied, and the protection of old big tree was closely related to the growth environment. Currently, the main driving force behind the protection of old big trees is the worship of old big trees. By depositing its sacredness to the old big tree and sublimating the natural character that nature gave to the old big tree into a guiding consciousness of social activities, nature's "beauty" and personality's "goodness" are well combined. The protection state of the old big tree is closely related to the degree of interaction with the surrounding environment and the participation of various cultures and subjects. In the process of continuously interacting with the surrounding environment during the long-term growth of old big trees, it seems that a natural sanctuary was formed around old big trees in the process of voluntarily establishing a "natural-cultural-scape" system involving bottom-up and top-down cross-regions, multicultural and multi-subjects. Third, China focused on protecting and recovering old big trees, but the protection management system is poor due to a lack of comprehensive consideration of historical and cultural values, plant diversity significance, and social values of old big trees in the management process. Three indicators of space's regional characteristics, property and protection characteristics, and value characteristics can be found in the evaluation of the natural characteristics of old giant trees, which are highly valuable in terms of traditional consciousness management, resource protection practice, faith system construction, and realization of life community values. A systematic management system should be supported as to whether they can be protected and developed for a long time. Fourth, as the perception of protected areas is not yet mature in China, "natural sanctuary" should be treated as an important research content in the process of establishing a nature reserve system. The form of natural sanctuary management, which focuses on bottom-up community participation, is a strong supplement to the current type of top-down nature reserve management in China. Based on this, the protection of old giant trees should be included in the form of a nature reserve called a natural monument in the nature reserve system. In addition, residents of the area around the nature reserve should be one of the main agents of biodiversity conservation.

A Study on the Landscape Characteristics and Implications of the Royal Garden through 「The 36 Scenery of Seongdeok Summer Mountain Resort」 by Kangxi Emperor (강희제(康熙帝)의 「승덕 피서산장(避暑山莊) 36경」에 담긴 황가원림의 경관 특성과 함의)

  • RHO Jaehyun;MENG Zijun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
    • /
    • v.55 no.4
    • /
    • pp.212-240
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study is a multi-layered exploration of 「The Thirty-Six Scenery of Seongdeok Summer Mountain Resort(承德避暑山莊三十六景)」 (The 36th view of Kangxi) recited by Emperor Kangxi of China through literature study, ancient calligraphy diagrams, and field studies. The conclusion of tracing the landscape characteristics and implications contained in 「The 36th view of Kangxi」 through the analysis of the headword(標題語) and the interpretation of the Jeyeong poem(題詠詩) is as follows. 「The 36th view of Kangxi」 is an extension of the outer edge of the Eight Sceneries, and when compared to the existing Eight Sceneries peom and Eight Sceneries painting, it is found that the landscape is centered on the 'viewpoint' rather than the landscape object. In particular, it aimed to create a structured landscape centered on nine types of buildings represented by 'Jeon(殿)' and 'Jeong(亭)' was given. In particular, Yeouiju, located in Lake district, is a scenic country endowed with the character of a gardens in Garden, which is composed by collecting famous representative Chinese landscapes and landscapes of Sansu-si and Sanshu Painting. As a result of headword analysis to understand the characteristics of landscape components, 14 landscapes (38.9%) related to water elements and 13 landscapes(36.1%) related to mountain elements, the elements related to architecture and civil engineering were classified in the order of 3 cases(8.3%), and the elements related to the skylight were classified in the order of 2 cases(5.6%). However, in Jeyeong-si, the mention of landscape vocabulary for climate elements was overwhelming. In other words, in the poems of 「The 36th Scenery of Kangxi」, scenery vocabulary symbolizing 'coolness' such as 雲(cloud), 水(water), 泉(spring), 清(clear), 波(wave), 流(wave), 風(wind) and 無暑(without heat), etc. It is not a coincidence that it appears, and it is strongly attached to the sense of place of Summer Mountain Resort in Rehe(熱河). Among the 23 landscapes whose seasonal background was confirmed, the fact that the lower landscape is portrayed as the majority and the climate elements of the resort area are portrayed in three-dimensional and multi-dimensional ways are closely related to the period of enjoying the gardens of Kangxi, the main subject of the landscape. In addition, many animal and plant landscapes appearing in Jeyeong-si appear to be in the same context as the spatial attributes of not only recreation, but also contemplation and hunting. On the other hand, in Jeyeongsi, there are 33 wonders(91.7%) citing famous people and famous books through ancient poems, old stories, and ancient stories tends to be prominent. It is inferred that this was based on Kangxi's understanding and pride in traditional Chinese culture. In 「The 36th view of Kangxi」, not only a book-writing description of the feelings of being entrusted to the family sutras, but also the spirit of patriotism, love, self-discipline and respect for mother and filial piety are strongly implied. Ultimately, 「The 36th view of Kangxi」 shows the real scene of the resort, as well as the spiritual dimension, in a multi-faceted and three-dimensional way, and the spirit of an emperor based on the dignity of the royal family and the sentiments of a writer it deserves to be called a collection of imperial records that were intended to reveal.

Overview of Utilization of Four-wheel Tractor in Korea(I) -Ownership and Annual Use by Different Farm Groups- (농용(農用)트랙터 이용(利用)에 관(關)한 조사연구(調査硏究)(I) -경영형태별(經營形態別) 농작업이용실태분석(農作業利用實態分析)-)

  • Park, Ho Seok;Kim, Kyong Su;Lee, Yong Kook;Han, Sung Kum
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.20-32
    • /
    • 1982
  • This survey was conducted to investigate the present status of farm tractor utilization for obtaining a basic reference to the establishment of the government's agricultural mechanization strategies. Thirty two counties from the eight provinces except Jeju were covered in this study. From these selected areas, 433 sample farms having farm tractor were taken to obtain the general informations by the enquete, and 93 sample farms among them to investigate the status of daily tractor use in the year of 1980. The analyzed results are summarized as follows: 1. Farm tractors owned by the rice-oriented farms holds 71.5 percent of the total number of tractors the livestock-oriented farms 17.0 percent, and the orchard-oriented farms 7.0 percent. Among the farm tractors 64.3 percent was a large size (46ps) and 35.7 percent a small size(19~23ps). 2. Most of the tractors surveyed were equipped with the essential attachments such as plow and rotavator. About 18 percent of the tractor owners had no trailer, which seemed too high considering the large percentage of tractor use for transportation. The availability of other attachments was very low except a grader on the rice-oriented farms and a hay harvester and a front loader on the livestock-oriented farms. 3. The average size of farm was 3.9 hectare for the rice-oriented farms, 13.9 hectare for the livestock-oriented farms and 7.4 hectare for the orchard-oriented farms. It was obious that the average farm size of was too small compared to the theoretical machine capacity of the tractors. 4. About 70 percent of the tractor operators were in the age of twenties and thirties. About 90 percent of them had an educational level of middle school graduate or above even though their technical level was very low. 5. Any particular problem in tractor use was not found in this survey. From the farmer's preference for purchasing a new tractor, however, it is estimated the demand on a 20-30ps tractor will be more increased. 6. The average annual use of tractor was of about 100 days or 400 hours. It appeared that the rice-oriented farms used most with 412.4 hours per year, and followed by the livestock-oriented farms with 403.6 hours, the orchard oriented farms with 377.7 hours. 7. Among the total hours of tractor use, 47.3 percent was for transportation, and 41.6 percent was for plowing and rotary tillage. The largest portion of the annual tractor use was taken by transportation on the livestock-oriented farms, by land preperation on the rice-oriented farms, and by loading and chemical spraying on the orchard-oriented farms. 8. The hours of tractor use had a peak in May. The hours of use for own farm was remarkably different among the different farm oriented, but there was no considerable difference between the too different sizes of tractor. 9. The hours of tractor use decreased as the age of the operator or the educational level increased. The reason might be that the operators who had a high educational level or were older had a tendency of disliking custom works. 10. The average custom use of tractor was 171.3 hours per year, and the ratio of custom work was 63.7 percent on the rice-oriented farms, 31.7 percent on the livestock-oriented farms and 22.4 percent on the orchard-oriented farms. Among the custom works, the most popular one was the grader leveling. 11. The charge on custom work was about 40,000 Won per hectare for plowing and rotary tillage, and it was the most expensive in the southeastern region, and next followed by the southwestern region. 12. The average plowing capacity of the small tractor was 7.8 hours per hectare in the paddy field, and that of the large tractors was 4.3 hours per hectare. The average rotary-tilling capacities of the small and the large tractors were 6.5 and 4.3 hours per hectare, in the paddy field respectively.

  • PDF