• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.71-80
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• 2019

Daily ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity balance between load and supply due to the variability renewable energy. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for more than 12 hours forecast horizon. UM-LDAPS model is the numerical weather prediction operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and it generates the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study attempts to evaluate the model performance against the in situ measurements at 37 ground stations from January to May, 2013. Relative mean bias error, mean absolute error and root mean square error of hourly total irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 8.2%, 21.2% and 29.6%, respectively. The behavior of mean bias error appears to be different; positively largest in Chupoongnyeong station but negatively largest in Daegu station. The distinct contrast might be attributed to the limitation of microphysics parameterization for thick and thin clouds in the model.

• 대한지역사회영양학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.413-425
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• 2017

Objectives: Accurate assessment of energy expenditure is important for estimation of energy requirements in athletic children. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of accelerometer for prediction of selected activities' energy expenditure and intensity in athletic elementary school children. Methods: The present study involved 31 soccer players (16 males and 15 females) from an elementary school (9-12 years). During the measurements, children performed eight selected activities while simultaneously wearing the accelerometer and carrying the portable indirect calorimeter. Five equations (Freedson/Trost, Treuth, Pate, Puyau, Mattocks) were assessed for the prediction of energy expenditure from accelerometer counts, while Evenson equation was added for prediction of activity intensity, making six equations in total. The accuracy of accelerometer for energy prediction was assessed by comparing measured and predicted values, using the paired t-test. The intensity classification accuracy was evaluated with kappa statistics and ROC-Curve. Results: For activities of lying down, television viewing and reading, Freedson/Trost, Treuth were accurate in predicting energy expenditure. Regarding Pate, it was accurate for vacuuming and slow treadmill walking energy prediction. Mattocks was accurate in treadmill running activities. Concerning activity intensity classification accuracy, Pate (kappa=0.72) had the best performance across the four intensities (sedentary, light, moderate, vigorous). In case of the sedentary activities, all equations had a good prediction accuracy, while with light activities and Vigorous activities, Pate had an excellent accuracy (ROC-AUC=0.91, 0.94). For Moderate activities, all equations showed a poor performance. Conclusions: In conclusion, none of the assessed equations was accurate in predicting energy expenditure across all assessed activities in athletic children. For activity intensity classification, Pate had the best prediction accuracy.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.25-38
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• 2017

Climate change and environmental pollution are becoming serious due to the use of fossil energy. For this reason, renewable energy systems are increasing, especially photovoltaic systems being more popular. The photovoltaic system has characteristics that are affected by ambient weather conditions such as insolation, outside temperature, wind speed. Particularly, it has been confirmed that the performance of the photovoltaic system decreases as the module temperature increases. In order to grasp the influence of the module temperature in advance, several researchers have proposed the prediction models on the module temperature. In this paper, we predicted the module temperature using the aforementioned prediction model on the basis of the weather conditions in Incheon, South Korea during July and August. The influence of weather conditions (i.e. insolation, outside temperature, and wind speed) on the accuracy of the prediction models was also evaluated using the standard statistical metrics such as RMSE, MAD, and MAPE. The results show that the prediction accuracy is reduced by 3.9 times and 1.9 times as the insolation and outside temperature increased respectively. On the other hand, the accuracy increased by 6.3 times as the wind speed increased.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.609-615
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• 2000

The energy conservation is one of the most important issues in recent years. Especially, the energy conservation through improved control strategies is one of the most highly possible area to be implemented in the near future. The energy conservation of the ice storage system can be accomplished through the improved control strategies. A real time building load prediction algorithm was developed. The expected highest and the lowest outdoor temperature of the next day were used to estimate the next day outdoor temperature profile. The measured dry bulb temperature and the measured building load were used to estimate system parameters by using the on-line weighted recursive least square method. The estimated hourly outdoor temperatures and the estimated hourly system parameters were used to predict the next day hourly building loads. In order to see the effectiveness of the building load prediction algorithm, two different types of building models were selected and analysed. The simulation results show less than 1% in error for the prediction of the next day building loads. Therefore, this algorithm may successfully be used for the development of improved control algorithms of the ice storage system.

• 풍력에너지저널
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.32-39
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• 2018

In this study, the annual power production of a wind farm according to obstacles and wind data was predicted for the Garyeok-do wind farm in the Saemangeum area. The Saemangeum Garyeok-do wind farm was built in December 2014 by the Korea Rural Community Corporation. Currently, two 1.5 MW wind turbines manufactured by Hyundai Heavy Industries are installed and operated. Automatic weather station data from 2015 to 2017 was used as wind data to predict the annual power production of the wind farm for three consecutive years. For prediction, a commercial computational fluid dynamics tool known to be suitable for wind energy prediction in complex terrain was used. Predictions were made for three cases with or without considering obstacles and wind direction errors. The study found that by considering both obstacles and wind direction errors, prediction errors could be substantially reduced. The prediction errors were within 2.5 % or less for all three years.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제25권11호
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• pp.1572-1581
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• 2022

Energy conversion to renewable energy is being promoted to solve the recently serious environmental pollution problem. Solar energy is one of the promising natural renewable energy sources. Compared to other energy sources, it is receiving great attention because it has less ecological impact and is sustainable. It is important to predict power generation at a future time in order to maximize the output of solar energy and ensure the stability and variability of power. In this paper, solar power generation data and sensor data were used. Using the PCC(Pearson Correlation Coefficient) analysis method, factors with a large correlation with power generation were derived and applied to the GAM(Generalized Additive Model). And the prediction accuracy of the power generation prediction model was judged. It aims to derive efficient solar power generation in the future and improve power generation performance.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to develop a control algorithm for outdoor air cooling based on the prediction of cooling load, and to evaluate the building energy saving using outdoor air cooling. Outdoor air conditions such as temperature, humidity, and solar insolation are predicted using forecasted information provided by the meteorological agency, and the building cooling load is predicted from the obtained outdoor air conditions and building characteristics. The air flow rate induced by outdoor air is determined by considering the predicted cooling loads. To evaluate the energy saving, the benchmark building is modeled and simulated using the TRNSYS program. Energy saving by outdoor air cooling using load prediction is found to be around 10% of the total cooling coil load in all locations of Korea. As the allowable minimum indoor temperature is decreased, the total energy saving is increased and approaches close to that of the conventional enthalpy control.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.72-81
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• 2011

The wind data obtained from an AWS(Automated Weather Station) was used to predict the AEP(annual energy production) of Gangwon wind farm having a total capacity of 98 MWin Korea. A wind energy prediction program based on the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equation was used. Predictions were made for three consecutive years starting from 2007 and the results were compared with the actual AEPs presented in the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) monitoring report of the wind farm. The results from the prediction program were close to the actual AEPs and the errors were within 7.8%.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.211-218
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• 2012

전 세계적으로 화석연료의 많이 사용이 증가되고 있으며 이로 인해 온실가스가 배출되어 지구 온난화와 환경오염이 심각해지고 있는 실정이다. 지구의 환경오염을 줄이기 위해서 무공해 청정에너지인 신재생에너지에 대한 관심이 증가되는 추세인데, 그중에서도 풍력발전은 환경오염 물질을 배출하지 않고, 자원량이 무한대이기 때문에 많은 관심을 받고 있다. 하지만, 풍력발전은 전력 생산량이 불규칙한 단점을 갖고 있어 풍력 터빈의 손상과 전력 생산량이 불규칙적인 문제를 야기하여 이러한 문제점을 보완하기 위해 풍력 발전량을 정확하게 예측하는 것이 중요하다. 풍력 발전량을 정확하게 예측하기 위해서 전력 생산량이 급증 또는 급감하는 것을 의미하는 ramp의 특성을 잘 활용해야 한다. 이 논문에서는 예측의 정확도를 높이기 위하여 다계층 신경망을 이용해 예측모델을 구축하였다. 구축된 예측모델은 흔히 사용되는 풍속, 풍향 속성뿐만 아니라 Power Ramp Rate(PRR) 속성까지 사용하였다. 구축된 풍력 발전량 예측모델은 앞서 말한 세 가지 속성을 모두 사용한 경우, 두 속성을 조합하여 사용한 경우 총 4가지 예측모델을 구축하였다. 구축된 4가지 예측모델을 성능평가 한 결과 PRR, 풍속, 풍향의 속성 모두를 사용한 예측모델의 예측 값이 풍력 터빈에서 관측된 관측 값에 가장 근접하였다. 그로 인해 PRR 속성을 사용하면 풍력 발전량의 예측 정확도를 향상 시킬 수 있었다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권7호
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• pp.2659-2665
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• 2024

This study proposes an algorithm that combines a Kalman Filter method with effective decay constant correction to improve the accuracy of predicting radiation dose rate distribution during emergencies. The algorithm addresses the limitations of relying solely on measurement data by incorporating calculation data and refining the estimations. The effectiveness of algorithm was assessed using hypothetical test scenarios, which demonstrated a significant improvement in the accuracy of dose rate prediction compared to the model predictions. The estimates generated by the algorithm showed a good agreement with the measured data, and the discrepancies tend to decrease over time. Furthermore, the application of the effective decay constant correction accelerated the reduction of prediction errors. In conclusion, it was confirmed that the combined use of the Kalman filter method and effective decay constant correction is an effective approach to improve the accuracy of dose rate prediction.