• International Journal of Contents
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.75-82
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper was to identify suitable variables for financial distress prediction models and to compare the accuracy of MDA and LA for early warning signals for wind energy companies in Korea. The research methods, discriminant analysis and logit analysis have been widely used. The data set consisted of 15 wind energy SMEs in KOSDAQ with financial statements in 2012 from KIS-Value. We found that five financial ratio variables were statistically significant and the accuracy of MDA was 86%, while that of LA is 100%. The importance of this study is that it demonstrates empirically that financial distress prediction models are applicable to the wind energy industry in Korea as an early warning signs of impending bankruptcy.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2020

Day ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity market to stabilize the electricity penetration. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for longer than 12 hours forecast horizon. Korea Meteorological Administration operates the UM-LDAPS model to produce the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study interpolates the hourly total irradiance into 15 minute instantaneous irradiance and then compare them with observed solar irradiance at four ground stations at 1 minute resolution. Numerical weather prediction model employed here was produced at 00 UTC or 18 UTC from January to December, 2018. To compare the statistical model for the forecast horizon less than 3 hours, smart persistent model is used as a reference model. Relative root mean square error of 15 minute instantaneous irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 18.4% and 19.6% initialized at 18 and 00 UTC, respectively. Numerical weather prediction is better than smart persistent model at 1 hour after simulation began.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.355-363
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• 2022

우리나라는 2050년 탄소중립을 목표로 신재생에너지 중심으로 에너지 공급원을 전환하고 확대하는 계획을 추진 중이다. 신재생에너지의 간헐적 특성으로 에너지 공급이 불안정성이 커짐에 따라 정확한 신재생에너지 발전량 예측의 중요성이 함께 커지고 있다. 이에 따라 정부는 신재생에너지를 집합화하여 관리하기 위한 소규모 전력중개시장을 개설하였고, 재생에너지 발전량 예측제도를 도입하여 예측정확도에 따라 정산금을 지급하는 제도를 시행 중이다. 본 논문에서는 우리나라 신재생에너지 전원의 대부분을 차지하는 태양광 발전에 대하여 통계적 및 인공지능 모형을 이용하여 예측모델을 구현하였으며, 각 모형의 예측정확도 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 비교 모델 중에서 CNN-LSTM(Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks) 모형이 가장 높은 성능을 가짐을 확인하였다. 예측정확도에 따른 예측제도 정산금 수익을 추정해보았고, 예측보유 기술 수준에 따라 수익 편차가 24% 정도 커질 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.94-99
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• 2015

Prediction algorithm of the energy storage system in accordance with the load pattern can cause economic loss in case of a failure prediction. In addition, algorithm that uses TOU(Time of Use) based on the revelation by the power electric charge which covers most simply is an inefficient operation because it is only for the purpose of reducing the peak power. In this paper, we introduced a non-prediction algorithm with a conventional TOU in order to solve this problem operating the energy storage system economic and efficient.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.659-676
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• 2010

An energy-based fatigue life prediction framework was previously developed by the authors for prediction of axial and bending fatigue life at various stress ratios. The framework for the prediction of fatigue life via energy analysis was based on a new constitutive law, which states the following: the amount of energy required to fracture a material is constant. In this study, the energy expressions that construct the new constitutive law are integrated into minimum potential energy formulation to develop new finite elements for uniaxial and bending fatigue life prediction. The comparison of finite element method (FEM) results to existing experimental fatigue data, verifies the new finite elements for fatigue life prediction. The final output of this finite element analysis is in the form of number of cycles to failure for each element in ascending or descending order. Therefore, the new finite element framework can provide the number of cycles to failure for each element in structural components. The performance of the fatigue finite elements is demonstrated by the fatigue life predictions from Al6061-T6 aluminum and Ti-6Al-4V. Results are compared with experimental results and analytical predictions.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2012

Predictions of wind speed for six different near-shore sites were made using the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) wind data. The distances between the NCAR sites and prediction sites were varied between 40km and 150km. A well-known wind energy prediction program, WindPRO, was used. The prediction results were compared with the measured data from the AWS(Automated Weather Stations). Although the NCAR wind data were located far away from the AWS sites, the prediction errors were within 9% for all the cases. In terms of sector-wise wind energy distributions, the predictions were fairly close to the measurements, and the error in predicting main wind direction was less than $30^{\circ}$. This proves that the NCAR wind data are very useful in roughly estimating wind energy in offshore or near-shore sites where offshore wind farm might be constructed in Korea.

• 한국지열·수열에너지학회논문집
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.8-14
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• 2016

In this study, the effects of prediction and reset control of outdoor air temperature on energy consumption for central heating system are researched by using TRNSYS program package, and the control performances with the suggested methods of prediction and reset control of outdoor air temperature are compared with the existing ones. As a result, the value of coefficient of determination $R^2$ for the predicted outdoor temperatures is improved and the suggested control method shows maximum 21.8% energy saving in comparison with existing control ones.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2019

The purpose of the work is to develop a simple solar irradiance prediction model using a deep learning method, the LSTM (long term short term memory). Other than existing prediction models, the proposed one uses only the cloudiness among the information forecasted from the national meterological forecast center. The future cloudiness is generally announced with four categories and for three-hour intervals. In this work, a daily irradiance pattern is used as an input vector to the LSTM together with that cloudiness information. The proposed model showed an error of 5% for learning and 30% for prediction. This level of error has lower influence on the load prediction in typical building cases.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.18-25
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• 2022

In this study, we propose a wind power generation prediction system that applies machine learning and data mining to predict wind power generation. This system increases the utilization rate of new and renewable energy sources. For time-series data, the data set was established by measuring wind speed, wind generation, and environmental factors influencing the wind speed. The data set was pre-processed so that it could be applied appropriately to the model. The prediction system applied the CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) to the data mining process and then used the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) to learn and make predictions. The preciseness of the proposed system is verified by comparing the prediction data with the actual data, according to the presence or absence of data mining in the model of the prediction system.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.27-37
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• 2016

A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.